Sitrep 2025-05-07 10:34:19

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 7, 2025, 10:33 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat across key axes, widespread aerial and drone activity, and Ukrainian deep strikes. Fighting in the Kursk border region is particularly active, with new reports of Ukrainian forces attempting to breach defenses and Russian claims of repelling assaults and destroying Ukrainian equipment, including a claimed destruction of an IMR, two M-113 BTRs, a Bradley BMP, and a Kozak BBM. Intense ground engagements continue on key axes, including the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting a high number of Russian assaults and claiming some tactical initiative has been regained in certain areas. Russian sources are claiming expansion of control and tactical advances on the Southern Donetsk direction (Shakhtarsk and Vremivka axes). Drone warfare remains a critical element for both sides, with widespread Russian drone activity reported across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, and Ukrainian drone attacks confirmed against Russian industrial facilities and reportedly military airfields, including the Shaikovka airbase and potentially the Kubinka airbase near Moscow where aircraft intended for the May 9th parade were reportedly struck. Russian air defenses reportedly shot down a Ukrainian drone over Noginsk in the Moscow region.

Humanitarian impacts continue, with civilian casualties reported in Kyiv (2 dead, 6 injured, including 4 children), Kharkiv Oblast (including from unexploded ordnance), Zaporizhzhia, and in the Russian border regions (Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts). A ballistic missile strike on the suburbs of Sumy resulted in multiple fatalities and injuries, including children. There are also disturbing reports from Ukrainian sources alleging the execution of three Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian forces near Novopil in Donetsk Oblast, an incident now under investigation. In the Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast, a Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked an ambulance on the territory of the central district hospital in Oleshky, injuring a paramedic and severely damaging the vehicle. A Ukrainian drone also reportedly attacked the home of a "district council deputy" in Tarasivka, Kherson Oblast, though no one was present at the time.

The information space is heavily contested, with both sides leveraging events for propaganda purposes, particularly ahead of May 9th. This includes Russian information operations regarding Victory Day celebrations, showcasing military parades in Russia and Belarus, claims of military successes, and narratives about countries supporting Ukraine. Ukrainian sources are also actively disseminating information and engaging in information operations, including attempting to link internal Russian incidents to the conflict and highlighting alleged strikes on Russian military facilities. A significant large-scale prisoner exchange has occurred, with 205 Ukrainian service members returning home. Russia is also actively promoting its military service through regional campaigns.

Diplomatic and political discussions continue, alongside reporting on internal Russian issues, including an investigation into corruption within the Ministry of Defense, temporary restrictions on transportation and internet in Moscow due to security concerns, and fire safety regulations hindering drone defense measures. Discussions on international military aid and potential peace conditions also persist, with a US envoy reportedly stating that Putin is the main obstacle to a ceasefire. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that changes in the German government do not play a role for Russia and that relations are already severely damaged. A Russian military blogger discussed the unlikelihood of the US defeating the Houthis through bombing, drawing parallels to past conflicts and highlighting the Houthis' resilience and external support. Russian officials are discussing negotiations for the return of residents from Sumy to Kursk. There are reports of internal political maneuvering in Armenia related to Russia and the EU. Russia has declared a "Commonwealth of Investigative Journalists" undesirable.

A significant new development is the detention of a Russian agent in Sumy Oblast by the SBU, accused of collecting intelligence on Ukrainian military positions and movements, and reportedly using Ukrainian military uniform as a disguise. This highlights ongoing counter-intelligence efforts and the methods employed by Russian agents.

Escalation in the India-Pakistan Conflict: There is a significant new development regarding escalation between India and Pakistan, with both sides reporting civilian casualties after mutual attacks. Pakistan claims 26 civilian deaths and 46 injured from alleged Indian missile attacks, while India reports three civilian deaths from Pakistani retaliatory strikes. India claims to have struck nine terrorist-linked sites in Pakistan, neutralizing 17 terrorists. Pakistan claims to have hit an Indian army brigade headquarters and shot down five Indian fighter jets. Pakistan has called the Indian attack an act of war and warned of potential direct confrontation between the nuclear powers. The UN Secretary-General and Donald Trump have commented on the conflict, expressing concern and hoping for a swift resolution. A representative of the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Russia suggested Russia should accept refugees if the conflict escalates.

New information from the past hour reinforces these trends and introduces new details:

Russian Claims of Destroying Ukrainian Drone in Noginsk, Moscow Region: Дневник Десантника shares a video claiming that Russian air defense shot down an enemy drone today in Noginsk, Moscow region. This indicates continued Ukrainian drone activity targeting the Moscow region and Russian efforts to counter them. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Forecast of Frosts in Bryansk Oblast: AV БогомаZ reports that frosts of -2 degrees Celsius are forecast in some areas of Bryansk Oblast on the mornings of May 9th and 10th, with a possibility of damage to garden crops and agricultural plantings. While not directly military, this highlights environmental factors in a border region experiencing conflict. (AV БогомаZ)
Airport Restrictions Lifted in Several Russian Cities: TASS reports that temporary restrictions on receiving and releasing aircraft at the airports of Nizhny Novgorod, Tambov, and Yaroslavl have been lifted. This suggests a temporary security measure, likely related to drone threats, has been concluded in these locations. (ТАСС)
Escalation and Civilian Casualties in India-Pakistan Conflict: РБК-Україна and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report on the escalation between India and Pakistan, with both sides claiming civilian casualties. Pakistan reports 26 civilian deaths and 46 injured from alleged Indian missile attacks, while India reports three civilian deaths from Pakistani retaliatory strikes. India claims to have struck nine terrorist-linked sites in Pakistan. Pakistan claims to have hit an Indian army brigade headquarters and shot down five Indian fighter jets. Pakistan's Prime Minister called the Indian attack an act of war. The UN Secretary-General and Trump have commented on the conflict. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны provides further details on the claimed Indian strikes and Pakistani response, including claims of neutralizing terrorists and shooting down Indian fighter jets. (РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Russian Foreign Ministry Comments on German Government Changes: TASS reports that Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that changes in the German government do not play a role for Russia and that relations are already severely damaged. This reiterates Russia's negative assessment of current German-Russian relations. (ТАСС)
Russian Military Blogger Commentary on US Efforts Against Houthis: Военкор Котенок shares a political scientist's analysis arguing that the US cannot defeat the Houthis through bombing, drawing parallels to past conflicts and highlighting the Houthis' resilience and external support (Iran). The analysis also references claimed recent losses of US F-18 aircraft, one near Yemen and one in Finland, attributed to technical malfunctions. (Военкор Котенок)
Political Maneuvering in Armenia Related to Russia and EU: Рыбарь reports on statements by the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament, Alen Simonyan, who claimed Russia is waging a "hybrid war" against Armenia and called a former Armenian president a "Russian spy," despite lacking evidence. This comes amidst planned visits by high-ranking Russian officials to Yerevan and is framed as Armenian politicians seeking closer ties with the EU while maintaining relations with Russia. (Рыбарь)
Ukrainian Attack on "District Council Deputy's" House in Occupied Kherson Oblast: ASTRA reports on an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the house of Ivan Litvinenko, a "district council deputy" appointed by Russia, in the village of Tarasivka in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast. The Russian-appointed "governor," Vladimir Saldo, reported the attack, noting no one was home at the time. This indicates targeted Ukrainian strikes against individuals collaborating with the Russian occupation. (ASTRA)
Reported Strike on Russian Fighter Jet Location Near Moscow: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, citing a Russian military blogger, reports that UAVs struck the location of Russian Aerospace Forces fighter jets near Moscow, specifically at the Kubinka airbase, where aircraft intended for the May 9th parade were stationed. The author of the report uses a sarcastic remark about eternal flight. This suggests a successful Ukrainian strike on a sensitive Russian military facility involved in preparations for a highly symbolic event. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Analysis of a "Massive Attack" by Long-Range UAVs and Missiles: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares an analysis from a Russian military blogger stating that "the enemy" (likely Ukraine) conducted a massive attack using long-range UAVs and missiles, with 447 launched in one night. The analysis suggests this indicates the enemy has been accumulating forces and that these massive attacks will continue throughout the weekend. This highlights a Russian military perspective on a significant Ukrainian long-range strike capability and its potential for sustained use. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Russian Military Enlistment Campaign in Lipetsk Oblast: Igor Artamonov shares a video showcasing individuals from Lipetsk Oblast being sent to the "SMO" (Special Military Operation), highlighting the "heroism" of those going to the front and mentioning a regional educational project for veterans. The video promotes military service by contract and provides contact information for enlistment. This is an example of a regional-level recruitment and support campaign in Russia. (Игорь Артамонов)
Ukrainian Government Platform for Veteran Prosthetics and Rehabilitation: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares information about an online platform created by the Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy and the Fund for Social Protection of Persons with Disabilities, providing veterans with information on obtaining free modern prosthetics and rehabilitation aids from the state. This highlights efforts within Ukraine to support veterans injured in the conflict. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Ukrainian Drone Attack on Ambulance in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast: Два майора shares a report from the Russian-appointed "governor" of Kherson Oblast stating that a Ukrainian drone attacked an ambulance on the territory of the central district hospital in Oleshky this morning. The report claims three drops occurred, the paramedic sustained a mild concussion, no one was killed, but the ambulance is likely beyond repair. The images accompanying the report show a heavily damaged ambulance. This is a significant report of a potential violation of international humanitarian law targeting a medical vehicle. The accompanying images provide visual evidence of the damage. (Два майора)
Allegation of Rape by a Convicted Russian Servicemember in Tatarstan: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, citing ASTRA, reports the detention of a 37-year-old servicemember in Tatarstan, who was previously convicted of carjacking and is now accused of raping a 15-year-old girl. The report draws a connection between his prior conviction, military service, and alleged current crime, suggesting that being in the war has contributed to further criminal behavior. This highlights potential social and disciplinary issues within the Russian military, particularly concerning personnel with prior convictions. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Discussion on Russia Accepting Refugees from India-Pakistan Conflict: Alex Parker Returns shares a video of a representative from the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Russia stating that Russia should accept refugees from Pakistan and India if their conflict escalates. This introduces a potential humanitarian and social implication of the India-Pakistan escalation for Russia. (Alex Parker Returns)
Russia Declares "Commonwealth of Investigative Journalists" Undesirable: Север.Реалии reports that the Russian Prosecutor General's Office has declared the "Commonwealth of Investigative Journalists" undesirable, claiming it is a continuation of a liquidated foundation and collaborates with undesirable organizations in the US and Ukraine. This indicates continued pressure on independent journalism and foreign-linked organizations within Russia. (Север.Реалии)
Russian Official Addresses Citizen Rights Regarding Financial Services: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a post from a Russian official addressing concerns about credit organizations unilaterally changing terms for clients without consent, violating federal law. The post highlights instances of increased commissions and interest rates and mentions a new law on transparent advertising of consumer loans. This indicates domestic legal and consumer protection issues within Russia. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Russian Vice-Premier Visits Kursk Oblast for Restoration Assessment: Colonelcassad reports that Russian Vice-Premier Khusnullin has visited Sudzha and the southern districts of Kursk Oblast to assess restoration projects after the end of intense combat actions. A political task has been set to restore the region, and money will be allocated. Khusnullin, who was involved in restoration in Crimea and other occupied territories, will oversee this. This indicates a Russian commitment to rebuilding parts of the border region affected by the conflict. (Colonelcassad)
Reported Ukrainian Strike on NPO Splav Production Building in Tula: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno shares an image and analysis concluding that a production building of NPO Splav was hit at specific coordinates (54.222495,37.692874). NPO Splav is a major Russian developer and producer of multiple launch rocket systems. This suggests a significant Ukrainian deep strike targeting a key Russian military production facility. (КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno)
Russian Human Rights Commissioner Discusses Return of Residents from Sumy: TASS reports that Russian Human Rights Commissioner Moskalenko has conducted "difficult negotiations" on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border regarding the return of residents of Kursk Oblast from Sumy. This indicates efforts to facilitate the movement of civilians displaced by the conflict in the border regions. (ТАСС)
Russian Military Blogger Reports on "Geran" Attack on Railway Hub in Kharkiv: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video and commentary claiming that "Geran" (Shahed) drones attacked a railway hub in Kharkiv this morning. The author speculates that a Ukrainian Armed Forces object or a territorial recruitment center was likely targeted due to the location of the impact and reports a powerful explosion. The accompanying image shows a satellite map with annotations highlighting a military commissariat assembly point and the impact area. This reinforces reports of Russian drone attacks on Kharkiv and provides a potential target assessment from a Russian perspective. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
FSB Claims Prevention of Terrorist Attack and Detention of Ukrainians in Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast: TASS reports that the Russian FSB has prevented a terrorist attack allegedly planned by Kyiv near the "Tank T-34" monument in Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast. They claim three Ukrainian natives were detained and four improvised explosive devices with shrapnel were seized. The FSB asserts that Ukrainian special services were preparing the attack during a commemorative rally. This is a significant claim by Russia of preventing a terrorist act and attributing it to Ukrainian special services, likely intended for propaganda purposes. (ТАСС)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kursk Oblast (Russia): Continued Ukrainian attempt to break through the state border near Novy Put from Sumy Oblast, reportedly utilizing a mine-clearing vehicle, a Stryker, and another armored vehicle, supported by drones. Bridge over the Seym River near Tyotkino reportedly destroyed and unsuitable for heavy equipment. Ukrainian infantry reportedly repelled from the railway station area in Tyotkino and pushed back across the border. Combat is ongoing in front of the border, with Russian aviation, artillery, and drones engaging, and Russian forces claiming to have prevented a breakthrough. Conflicting reports exist regarding whether Ukrainian forces successfully crossed the border. Civilian casualties confirmed due to Ukrainian FPV drone attack near Shchegolyok (2 killed, 3 injured) and an explosive device dropped near Zvannoye (1 killed). Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling 18 Russian attacks on the Kursk direction with 330 artillery shellings (8 from MLRS), 12 aviation strikes, and 27 guided aerial bombs in the past day. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian offensive on Tyotkino involved IMR and quad bikes, met by Russian paratroopers and reconnaissance, resulting in the loss of up to 10 units of Ukrainian equipment. Two Mayors military blogger shares video claiming objective control of a destroyed Ukrainian tank near Novy Put in Glushkovsky district by FPV drones and Lancets. Russian Vice-Premier visited Sudzha and southern districts for restoration assessment. Russian Human Rights Commissioner discusses return of Kursk residents from Sumy. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Alex Parker Returns, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, Colonelcassad, ТАСС)
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains a focal point of intense ground combat. Ukrainian General Staff reported 78 engagements in the past day. Russian military bloggers claim advances on the right flank and fighting within the city itself.
Novopavlivka Direction: Another area with very high intensity, with 24 attempts to break through reported in the past day by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Kharkiv Oblast: Under a massive Russian drone attack, with a fire at the Barabashovo market. Number of injured in Kharkiv has risen to 4. Ukrainian General Staff reports four combat engagements in the Vovchansk area on the Kharkiv direction in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes on Zolochiv, Kozacha Lopan, and Pidlyman in Kharkiv Oblast in the past day. Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration reports 4 injured civilians and details on damaged buildings and the Barabashovo market fire. Russian military blogger reports on "Geran" attack on railway hub in Kharkiv, speculating on target being a military object or recruitment center. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Sumy Oblast: Reported origin of the Ukrainian attempt to break through into Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading to Poltava Oblast. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes on Vorozhba, Iskriskivshchyna, Myropillia, and Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast in the past day. Russian military blogger reports that the Ukrainian offensive on Tyotkino from Sumy Oblast involved IMR and quad bikes, met by Russian paratroopers and reconnaissance, resulting in the loss of up to 10 units of Ukrainian equipment. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Sumy Oblast. Russian Human Rights Commissioner discusses return of Kursk residents from Sumy. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС)
Moscow Region (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 19 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over the Moscow region overnight. Airport operations were temporarily suspended. Russian military blogger reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Moscow and Moscow Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports reported strike on Russian fighter jet location at Kubinka airbase. Russian air defense reportedly shot down a Ukrainian drone over Noginsk. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русней Весны, WarGonzo, Военкор Котенок, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Oleshky (Kherson Oblast): Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked an ambulance on the territory of the central district hospital, injuring a paramedic and severely damaging the vehicle. (Два майора)
Tarasivka (Kherson Oblast): Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked the house of a "district council deputy" appointed by Russia. (ASTRA)
Kakhovka (Kherson Oblast): Russian FSB claims prevention of a terrorist attack and detention of three Ukrainian natives. (ТАСС)
Tula (Russia): Reported Ukrainian strike on a production building of NPO Splav. (КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno)
Noginsk (Moscow Region, Russia): Russian air defense reportedly shot down a Ukrainian drone. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Odesa Raion (Odesa Oblast): STERNENKO reports a person killed and civilian infrastructure damaged as a result of a Russian strike. (STERNENKO)

Aerial and Drone Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over 11 regions overnight, including 32 over Bryansk, 22 over Voronezh, 19 over Moscow region, 10 over Penza, 9 over Kaluga, 6 over Belgorod, 2 over Lipetsk, 2 over Samara, 1 over Vladimir, 1 over Kursk, and 1 over Rostov Oblast. Ukrainian forces are reportedly using a large number of drones to support their breakthrough attempt in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian drone operators successfully neutralized a Russian "diver" attempting infiltration. Civilian casualties confirmed in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad Oblasts, including a UAV in the direction of Cherkasy city. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy used 3344 kamikaze drones and 145 operational-tactical UAVs were destroyed in the past day. Fire at Barabashovo market in Kharkiv is confirmed after a Russian drone attack. Russian Ministry of Defense shares video claiming to show a "Geran-2" UAV strike on Ukrainian forces on the Donetsk direction. Russian military blogger claims successful FPV drone and Lancet strikes destroyed a Ukrainian tank near Novy Put in Kursk Oblast. Governor of Samara Oblast reports three UAVs were shot down over industrial enterprises with no casualties or damage. Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration reports 4 injured from 20 Shahed-type UAVs targeting Kharkiv. STERNENKO reports a person killed and civilian infrastructure damaged in Odesa Raion as a result of a Russian strike, including drones. WarGonzo reports Russian Ministry of Defense claims of 105 Ukrainian drones shot down overnight. Russian military blogger reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 11 regions, providing a breakdown by region. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Colonelcassad shares video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near Klinovoe with an optical fiber FPV drone. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports reported strike on Russian fighter jet location at Kubinka airbase near Moscow by UAVs. Russian air defense reportedly shot down a Ukrainian drone over Noginsk, Moscow region. Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked an ambulance in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked the house of a "district council deputy" in Tarasivka, Kherson Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares analysis from a Russian military blogger on a "massive attack" using 447 long-range UAVs and missiles in one night. Russian military blogger reports on "Geran" attack on railway hub in Kharkiv. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русней Весны, AV БогомаZ, WarGonzo, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, STERNENKO, Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy dropped 175 guided aerial bombs on Ukraine and 27 on Kursk Oblast in the past day, totaling 202 KABs. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes with guided aerial bombs on Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Missile Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy launched one missile attack using two missiles in the past day. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares analysis from a Russian military blogger on a "massive attack" using long-range UAVs and missiles, with 447 launched in one night. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Naval Activity: The threat of unmanned boat attacks in Novorossiysk continues, with reports suggesting the use of BECs equipped with air defense systems offshore. High Court of London has allowed Russia to temporarily not execute the decision of the Hague arbitration regarding the recovery of $207.8 million in favor of Ukrainian DTEK Krymenergo for the loss of energy assets in Crimea. This is a legal development with potential implications for financial aspects related to assets in Crimea.
Russian Aviation: Russian aviation is reported to be engaging Ukrainian forces in the Kursk direction. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy conducted 80 air strikes and 12 aviation strikes on the Kursk direction in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes on Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the past day. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports reported strike on Russian fighter jet location at Kubinka airbase near Moscow by UAVs, where aircraft for the May 9th parade were stationed. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy conducted over 6100 shellings, including 113 from MLRS, in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy conducted 330 artillery shellings, including 8 from MLRS, on the Kursk direction in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports 61 Russian artillery systems and one MLRS were destroyed in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Russian Narrative on Victory Day: The SVR of the Russian Federation is framing European countries' participation in Kyiv's May 9th commemoration as revanchist and cynical, linking them to the Hitler coalition. This is a clear information operation ahead of the commemoration. Two Mayors share a video with a sarcastic caption suggesting Estonians and Lithuanians will watch the May 9th parade in direct broadcast. This is a propaganda message related to the upcoming commemoration and perceived Western attitudes towards Russia. (ТАСС, Два майора)
Israel's Plans for Gaza: Israel has approved a plan for full control and long-term presence in the Gaza Strip. (РБК-Україна)
US Position on WWII: Donald Trump stated that the US won WWI and WWII. (РБК-Україна)
Peace Talks and Ceasefire Calls: President Macron of France and Prime Minister Starmer of Britain have again called on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire. (РБК-Україна)
US Aid to Gaza: Donald Trump stated that the US will help the residents of Gaza get food and is discussing mechanisms to deliver aid bypassing Hamas. (РБК-Україна)
US Education Policy: TASS reports that the US Department of Education has informed Harvard University about the cessation of grant allocation due to the refusal to follow recommendations on changing its policy. This is a domestic US political/educational development. (ТАСС)
Escalation in India-Pakistan Conflict: РБК-Україна and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report on the escalation between India and Pakistan, with both sides claiming civilian casualties and Pakistan calling the Indian attack an act of war. The UN Secretary-General and Trump have commented. A representative from the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Russia suggests Russia should accept refugees. (РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns)
Russian Foreign Ministry Comments on German Government Changes: TASS reports that Maria Zakharova of the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that changes in the German government do not play a role for Russia and that relations are already severely damaged. (ТАСС)
Political Maneuvering in Armenia Related to Russia and EU: Рыбарь reports on statements by the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament claiming Russia is waging a "hybrid war" against Armenia and calling a former president a "Russian spy." (Рыбарь)
Russian Human Rights Commissioner Discusses Return of Residents from Sumy: TASS reports that Russian Human Rights Commissioner Moskalenko has conducted "difficult negotiations" on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border regarding the return of residents of Kursk Oblast from Sumy. (ТАСС)
Russia Declares "Commonwealth of Investigative Journalists" Undesirable: Север.Реалии reports that the Russian Prosecutor General's Office has declared the "Commonwealth of Investigative Journalists" undesirable. (Север.Реалии)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Incident: Shooting attack on traffic police in Makhachkala, Dagestan, resulting in casualties. This indicates a potential internal security issue or unrest in the region. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Incident Involving Nationalist Group: Reported incident in Vsevolozhsk, Leningrad Oblast, involving individuals with "Russian Community" patches allegedly breaking into an apartment, leading to a fire and fatalities. This highlights potential issues with nationalist groups within Russia. (Север.Реалии)
Drone Attacks in Russia: Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over 11 regions overnight. Temporary airport restrictions were imposed in multiple Russian cities. Governor of Samara Oblast reports three UAVs were shot down over industrial enterprises. WarGonzo reports on the massive drone attack and claimed downing of 105 Ukrainian drones over 11 regions. Russian military blogger reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 11 regions, providing a breakdown by region. Two Mayors military blogger shares video claiming objective control of a destroyed Ukrainian tank near Novy Put in Glushkovsky district by FPV drones and Lancets. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports reported strike on Russian fighter jet location at Kubinka airbase near Moscow by UAVs. Russian air defense reportedly shot down a Ukrainian drone over Noginsk in the Moscow region. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares analysis from a Russian military blogger on a "massive attack" using 447 long-range UAVs and missiles in one night. Reported Ukrainian strike on a production building of NPO Splav in Tula. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русней Весны, AV БогомаZ, WarGonzo, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno)
Infrastructure Damage: A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Bulnash, Sverdlovsk Oblast, resulting in one injury and evacuation. (Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС)
Legal Developments: High Court of London has allowed Russia to temporarily not execute the decision of the Hague arbitration regarding the recovery of $207.8 million in favor of Ukrainian DTEK Krymenergo for the loss of energy assets in Crimea. (ТАСС)
Fraudulent Airline Tickets: TASS reports that scammers are creating fake airline websites offering discounted tickets and tours to Russians, with the deception only revealed at the airport. This indicates an internal issue related to cybersecurity and fraud. (ТАСС)
Restoration Efforts in Kursk Oblast: Russian Vice-Premier visited Sudzha and southern districts for restoration assessment. (Colonelcassad)
Citizen Rights Regarding Financial Services: Russian official addresses concerns about credit organizations unilaterally changing terms for clients. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Allegation of Rape by a Convicted Servicemember: Reported detention of a servicemember in Tatarstan previously convicted of carjacking and now accused of rape, highlighting potential issues with personnel with prior convictions. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Discussion on Accepting Refugees from India-Pakistan Conflict: A representative from the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Russia suggests Russia should accept refugees if the conflict escalates. (Alex Parker Returns)
Declaration of "Commonwealth of Investigative Journalists" as Undesirable: Russian Prosecutor General's Office declares the organization undesirable. (Север.Реалии)
Forecast of Frosts in Bryansk Oblast: Forecast of frosts on May 9th and 10th, potentially impacting agriculture. (AV БогомаZ)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Public Morale and Support for Military: Ukrainian 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade congratulates infantry on Infantry Day. Head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council congratulates infantry on Infantry Day, emphasizing their importance. Russian military enlistment campaign in Lipetsk Oblast, promoting service by contract. (46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України, Олександр Вілкул, Игорь Артамонов)
Humanitarian Situation: Increased civilian casualties (4 injured) and widespread damage to residential and commercial infrastructure in Kharkiv due to the massive drone attack. Civilian casualties confirmed in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks (2 killed, 3 injured by drone near Shchegolyok; 1 killed by explosive device near Zvannoye). Reportedly, a man was injured in the Ilaryonivska community of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to a morning strike and hospitalized in serious condition. A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Bulnash, Sverdlovsk Oblast, resulting in one injury and evacuation. Damage at the Barabashovo market in Kharkiv includes around 90 trading facilities damaged and 20 burned. Donald Trump stated that the US will help the residents of Gaza get food. Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration reports 4 injured civilians and details on damaged buildings and the Barabashovo market fire. STERNENKO reports a person killed and civilian infrastructure damaged in Odesa Raion as a result of a Russian strike. Reported injury from morning strike in Ilaryonivska community, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. In Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, a Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked an ambulance, injuring a paramedic and severely damaging the vehicle. Russian Human Rights Commissioner discusses return of Kursk residents from Sumy. Escalation in India-Pakistan conflict with both sides reporting civilian casualties. A representative from the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Russia suggests Russia should accept refugees if the conflict escalates. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, STERNENKO, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns)
International Aid: Donald Trump stated that the US will help the residents of Gaza get food and is discussing mechanisms to deliver aid bypassing Hamas. (РБК-Україна)
Adoption in Ukraine: 43 children have been adopted in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in 2025, mostly by Ukrainian families. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Veteran Support: Ukrainian government platform for veteran prosthetics and rehabilitation. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)

Other Information (Updated):

Analysis of Russian Intentions: ISW analysts reported that Russian occupying forces are preparing for a breakthrough in two areas of Donetsk Oblast. (РБК-Україна)
Counter-Infiltration Tactics: Ukrainian forces have successfully utilized drone operators to neutralize a Russian "diver" attempting infiltration, highlighting a specific counter-infiltration tactic. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Military Losses: Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated cumulative Russian combat losses from February 24, 2022, including 1430 personnel in the past day, 3 tanks, 5 armored personnel vehicles, 61 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 145 operational-tactical UAVs, 103 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 3 units of special equipment. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Russian Military Capabilities Showcase: Russian Ministry of Defense shares video claiming to show a "Geran-2" UAV strike on Ukrainian forces on the Donetsk direction. (ТАСС)
Russian Military Blogger Reporting: Russian military bloggers are providing updated summaries of the front lines on the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Chasov Yar, and Sumy directions. (WarGonzo)
Russian Military Anniversaries: Commemoration of the 33rd anniversary of the Russian aerobatic team "Strizhi" (Swifts). (Басурин о главном)
Ukrainian Training: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a mini-film about the "Khartia" training course for recruits, highlighting their adaptation to the realities of the current war. This showcases efforts to prepare Ukrainian forces for combat. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Analysis of a "Massive Attack": БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares analysis from a Russian military blogger on a "massive attack" using 447 long-range UAVs and missiles in one night, suggesting accumulation of forces and continued attacks. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
FSB Claims Prevention of Terrorist Attack: Russian FSB claims prevention of a terrorist attack and detention of three Ukrainian natives in Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast. (ТАСС)

Situation Report