Sitrep 2025-05-07 10:04:20

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 7, 2025, 10:03 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat across key axes, widespread aerial and drone activity, and Ukrainian deep strikes. Fighting in the Kursk border region is particularly active, with new reports of Ukrainian forces attempting to breach defenses and Russian claims of repelling assaults and destroying Ukrainian equipment, including a claimed destruction of an IMR, two M-113 BTRs, a Bradley BMP, and a Kozak BBM. Intense ground engagements continue on key axes, including the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting a high number of Russian assaults and claiming some tactical initiative has been regained in certain areas. Russian sources are claiming expansion of control and tactical advances on the Southern Donetsk direction (Shakhtarsk and Vremivka axes). Drone warfare remains a critical element for both sides, with widespread Russian drone activity reported across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, and Ukrainian drone attacks confirmed against Russian industrial facilities and reportedly military airfields, including the Shaikovka airbase.

Humanitarian impacts continue, with civilian casualties reported in Kyiv (2 dead, 6 injured, including 4 children), Kharkiv Oblast (including from unexploded ordnance), Zaporizhzhia, and in the Russian border regions (Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts). A ballistic missile strike on the suburbs of Sumy resulted in multiple fatalities and injuries, including children. There are also disturbing reports from Ukrainian sources alleging the execution of three Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian forces near Novopil in Donetsk Oblast, an incident now under investigation.

The information space is heavily contested, with both sides leveraging events for propaganda purposes, particularly ahead of May 9th. This includes Russian information operations regarding Victory Day celebrations, showcasing military parades in Russia and Belarus, claims of military successes, and narratives about countries supporting Ukraine. Ukrainian sources are also actively disseminating information and engaging in information operations, including attempting to link internal Russian incidents to the conflict. A significant large-scale prisoner exchange has occurred, with 205 Ukrainian service members returning home.

Diplomatic and political discussions continue, alongside reporting on internal Russian issues, including an investigation into corruption within the Ministry of Defense, temporary restrictions on transportation and internet in Moscow due to security concerns, and fire safety regulations hindering drone defense measures. Discussions on international military aid and potential peace conditions also persist, with a US envoy reportedly stating that Putin is the main obstacle to a ceasefire.

A significant new development is the detention of a Russian agent in Sumy Oblast by the SBU, accused of collecting intelligence on Ukrainian military positions and movements, and reportedly using Ukrainian military uniform as a disguise. This highlights ongoing counter-intelligence efforts and the methods employed by Russian agents.

New information from the past hour reinforces these trends and introduces new details:

Deployment of North Korean MLRS in Ukraine: Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns share videos and commentary showing the apparent first combat deployment and operation of North Korean 240-mm MLRS M1991 by Russian forces somewhere in the Special Military Operation zone. The videos reportedly show the system in action, and one image from Colonelcassad highlights the addition of drone protection grills to the vehicle. Dva Mayora provides technical specifications for the M1991, including its range (43-60 km, with newer guided projectiles potentially reaching 80 km) and warhead size. This is a significant development, confirming the transfer and use of North Korean heavy weaponry by Russia in the conflict and indicating a potential shift in the types of artillery systems being employed on the front lines. (Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора)
Russian Claims of Destroying Ukrainian Mortar Crew with Lancet Drone: Narodnaya Militsiya DNR shares a video claiming the successful use of a Lancet kamikaze drone by operators of the 238th Artillery Brigade's strike and reconnaissance division to destroy an enemy mortar crew in counter-battery fire. They assert this significantly weakened enemy firepower in that sector. This highlights the continued and effective use of Lancet drones by Russian forces for targeted strikes against Ukrainian artillery assets. (Народная милиция ДНР)
Belarusian Military Parade Rehearsal: Dva Mayora shares photos and commentary on a general rehearsal for the military parade in Minsk, Belarus, commemorating the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. The commentary emphasizes the participation of border service personnel and their rigorous preparation. This indicates Belarus's continued close alignment with Russia and its active participation in commemorating shared historical events, which serves a propaganda purpose and reinforces the narrative of a united front. (Два майора)
Ukrainian Drone Attack on Kubinka Airbase Near Moscow: ASTRA shares a video allegedly showing the moment of a nighttime drone attack on the settlement of Novy Gorodok near Moscow, noting that the Kubinka military airfield is located approximately 2 kilometers away. They also reference a previous report from NASA's fire monitoring system that detected a fire in the vicinity of the airfield after a night drone attack. This indicates a Ukrainian drone strike targeting a military airbase in the Moscow region, suggesting continued Ukrainian capability to strike targets deep within Russia. (ASTRA)
Continued Intense Fighting in Kursk Border Region with Russian Claims of Destroying Ukrainian Equipment: Operatsiya Z: Voyenkory Russkoy Vesny shares photos and commentary claiming the "rout of a NATO-style equipment armored group" attempting to break through to the settlement of Novy Put in the Glushkovsky district of Kursk Oblast. They claim this is the third day of enemy attempts in this direction and that most enemy equipment is destroyed before reaching the state border. They specifically claim the destruction of three armored combat vehicles (including a Kozak) and an M2 Bradley BMP, calling the area a "cemetery of enemy equipment." This reinforces previous reports of intense fighting in this area and Russian claims of successfully repelling Ukrainian assaults and inflicting significant losses, particularly on Western-supplied equipment. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Russian Claims of Destroying Ukrainian M113 APC with Lancet Drone: Narodnaya Militsiya DNR shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian M113 BTR near Kleban-Byk using a Lancet X-51 loitering munition. They state the vehicle broke down during a failed counter-offensive attempt and was subsequently destroyed, preventing its evacuation for repair. This is another example of claimed successful Lancet drone use against Ukrainian armored vehicles and highlights the ongoing counter-offensive actions in that area. (Народная милиция ДНР)
Ukrainian Assessment of Saransk Fiber Optic Plant Strike: Alex Parker Returns comments on the Ukrainian strike on the fiber optic plant in Saransk, stating it is the only facility in Russia producing fiber optics and that it was hit. They note that Russia currently has an advantage in fiber optic drones on the front and that Ukraine is attacking this production to counter that. They also point out the reported lack of air defense systems near the plant and make a sarcastic comment about the Russian leadership. This provides a Ukrainian perspective on the strategic significance of the Saransk strike and its potential impact on Russian military capabilities, particularly regarding drones. (Alex Parker Returns)
US Envoy Attributed Statement on Putin Being Obstacle to Ceasefire: Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights reports that Special Representative of Trump, Kellogg, stated that Putin is currently the only obstacle to a ceasefire. Alex Parker Returns echoes this statement and adds a sarcastic comment about Putin regularly announcing unilateral ceasefires. This is a significant diplomatic statement from a figure associated with a potential future US administration, suggesting a clear view on the main impediment to peace negotiations. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns)
Russian Military Blogger Report on Zaporizhzhia Direction: Dnevnik Desantnika shares a report on the situation in the Zaporizhzhia direction. They state that the enemy (Ukraine) continues counterattacks in the areas of Stepove and Shcherbaky. They report a large number of enemy drones of all types in the sky and active artillery fire. On the Russian side, they claim 628 strikes on enemy targets in 14 settlements, including the destruction of enemy equipment and personnel north of Kamenskoye, in Gulyaipole, Malaya Tokmachka, Temirovka, and Olgovskoye. They also report 373 drone strikes by Russian forces in various locations in the Zaporizhzhia region. Finally, they mention Russian strikes on enemy energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia the previous evening, with over 20 explosions recorded in the city. This provides a detailed Russian perspective on the intensity of fighting, claimed losses, and the continued heavy use of drones and artillery on the Zaporizhzhia front. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Russian Military Blogger Provides Strike Chronicle for May 6-7: Colonelcassad provides a detailed chronicle of Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory from May 6th to 7th. The report lists numerous strikes across various oblasts (Donbas, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr) using a variety of weapons, including Guided Aerial Bombs (UMPK), Iskander-M missiles, and Geran/Gerbera (Shahed) drones. This chronological list highlights the widespread nature of Russian aerial and missile attacks across Ukraine during this period. (Colonelcassad)
Russian Military Aviation Activity Over Moscow: Colonelcassad shares photos of aerobatic teams over Moscow, stating that preparation for the Victory Parade continues. This reinforces the ongoing preparations for the May 9th celebrations and the public display of Russian military capabilities. (Colonelcassad)
Russian Police Congratulate WWII Home Front Worker: Police of Khabarovsk Krai shares photos and a report about the head of the regional internal affairs department congratulating an 80-year-old WWII home front worker on Victory Day. The report highlights her contributions during the war and her subsequent career. This is an example of Russian authorities engaging in commemorative activities and leveraging the historical narrative of Victory Day at a regional level. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
Security Measures in St. Petersburg for May 9th: TASS reports that seven shopping centers in the center of St. Petersburg will temporarily suspend operations during the first half of the day on May 9th for security purposes. This indicates heightened security measures in major Russian cities in anticipation of potential incidents during the Victory Day celebrations. (ТАСС)
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Pace of Advance: Slivochny Kapriz shares a chart and a table detailing the average daily progression of Russian forces in the Special Military Operation zone. The chart, based on data from May 2nd to 5th, shows a daily progression of 9.6 km², with a total progression of 38.56 km² during that period. The table provides monthly data on territorial changes, showing cumulative changes in square kilometers. This provides a Russian perspective on the claimed pace of their ground operations and territorial gains. (Сливочный каприз)
Satellite Imagery of Fire at Shaikovka Airbase: Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights shares satellite imagery from NASA reportedly showing two fires on the territory of the Russian Shaikovka airbase, where Tu-22M3 bombers and their missiles are based. This provides potential independent verification of a Ukrainian strike on this significant Russian military facility, which houses long-range bomber aircraft. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Security Measures and Potential Internet Restrictions in Chuvashia: TASS reports that transport movement will be restricted in Chuvashia on May 9th, and there is a possibility of mobile internet restrictions. This indicates additional security measures being implemented in other Russian regions for Victory Day. (ТАСС)
Ukrainian Air Force Reports on Drone Movement: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs over Poltava, Cherkasy, and Kyiv Oblasts, providing directions and potential targets. Mykolaiv Vanyok provides further details on the movement of "mopeds" (likely Shahed drones) over various locations, including Boyarka, Vasylkiv, Bila Tserkva, Uman, Kremenchuk, and Pereyaslav. This highlights the continued and widespread Russian drone activity targeting multiple regions across Ukraine. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк)
Ukrainian Commentary on Trump's Statement Regarding Houthis: Operatyvnyi ZSU provides commentary on Trump's statement about Houthis ceasing attacks, noting the Houthis' own statement that any agreement is linked to US aggression in Yemen, not their operations supporting Gaza, which will continue. They also reference local Israeli media stating that Trump's statement is bad news for Israel. This provides a Ukrainian perspective on the conflicting reports regarding the Houthis and highlights the potential implications for the situation in the Middle East. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Ukrainian Commentary on US Envoy's Peace Proposal: Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights comments on the US envoy Kellogg's idea of both sides withdrawing 15 kilometers from the current front line after a ceasefire, creating a 30-kilometer demilitarized zone. The author sarcastically notes what this would mean in practice for specific Ukrainian cities (full withdrawal from Kherson, Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad) and Russian-occupied areas (withdrawal from Nova Kakhovka, Oleshky, Enerhodar). This highlights Ukrainian skepticism and concerns about the implications of such a proposal for their territorial integrity. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russian Special Forces Activity in Crimea: Dva Mayora shares a video of Russian naval special forces personnel in Crimea, stating that the past night was restless with air defense, aviation, and counter-air attacks. They mention that the grouping of troops for the defense of Crimea was on full combat alert and that the naval special forces were deployed to positions along the coast to control the situation. This indicates heightened security and military activity in Crimea in response to perceived threats. (Два майора)
Russian Report on Regional Procurement of Military Medals: Sever.Realii reports on the regional procurement of medals for participants in the "invasion of Ukraine." They highlight that St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast have purchased the most medals (17,000 for 16 million rubles), followed by Buryatia (10,000 for 6.2 million rubles) and Adygea (1500 orders for 3 million rubles). They note that Dagestan and Komi have purchased the fewest. The report also mentions that procurement is often done at the regional level through private entrepreneurs. This provides insight into the decentralized nature of some Russian military procurement and the regional variations in recognizing participants in the conflict. (Север.Реалии)
Biden Criticizes Trump's Strategy on Ukraine: RBC-Ukraine reports on President Biden's criticism of Trump's strategy regarding Ukraine, stating that Putin will not stop if he is allowed to take significant chunks of land. Biden reportedly called anyone who thinks Putin would stop after such gains a "fool." This highlights the differing perspectives on the conflict within the US political landscape and the continued support for Ukraine from the current administration. (РБК-Україна)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kursk Oblast (Russia): Continued Ukrainian attempts to breach Russian defenses near Novy Put' and Tetkino, with reports of Ukrainian ground assaults utilizing armored vehicles and infantry. Russian forces claim to have repelled attacks and destroyed Ukrainian equipment, including an IMR, two M-113 BTRs, a Bradley BMP, and a Kozak BBM. Conflicting reports on whether Ukrainian infantry groups were able to penetrate the Russian defenses. Russian claims of 66 strikes by Ukrainian forces on border settlements over the past day. Russian claims of Ukrainian attacks towards Novy Put. Russian officials visited damaged areas and conducted a photo op, drawing criticism from Russian military bloggers. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Два майора)
Pokrovsk Direction: Continues to be a main focal point of intense Russian offensive efforts. Ukrainian General Staff claims partially regaining tactical initiative. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for an evacuation vehicle, indicating it remains a "hottest" area. (РБК-Україна, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Novopavlivka Direction: Intense fighting continues. Russian sources provide detailed maps and analysis showing claimed Russian forces advancing, highlighting gains in the areas of Uspenivka, Troitskoye, and Alexeevka. (Z комитет + карта СВО)
Southern Donetsk Direction (Shakhtarsk and Vremivka axes, including Bohodyr, Vilne Pole, Otradne, Fedorivka, Zelenoe Pole, Novopil): Russian forces are claiming expansion of control and tactical advances. Investigation launched into alleged execution of three Ukrainian POWs near Novopil. (Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA)
Sumy Oblast: Detention of a Russian agent by the SBU. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity. Ballistic missile strike on the suburbs of Sumy resulting in three fatalities and eight injuries, including children. Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian equipment column and a Swedish tank near Bilovody using FPV drones. Reports of mandatory evacuations of two villages near Tetkino. (Офіс Генерального прокурора, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Два майора)
Kharkiv Direction: Continued intense fighting with Russian aerial strikes (7 KABs), drone activity (145 kamikaze drones), and shelling (715 incidents). Eight Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory. Ukrainian forces claim significant Russian losses in personnel (73) and equipment (120 units). (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast: Continued Russian drone activity observed over Kyiv in the morning. Previous impacts reported in both Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. Russian strikes using Iskander-M and Geran/Gerbera drones reported. (Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Confirmed civilian fatality and 8 injured due to a Russian KAB strike in the Pokrovsk community of the Synelnykivskyi district. Russian forces conducting strikes and drone activity. Russian claims of destroying enemy equipment and personnel and striking energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia city. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Russian claims of 66 strikes by Ukrainian forces on border settlements over the past day. Russian claims of Ukrainian drone attack resulting in a civilian fatality in Sluchevsk. (ASTRA, AV БогомаZ, Два майора)
Saransk (Mordovia, Russia): Ukrainian strike on the fiber optic systems plant, reportedly causing serious damage and potentially impacting the plant's operation. Ukrainian sources highlight the strategic significance of this target. (РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns)
Moscow (Russia): Major explosion and fire in a residential building with casualties. Ukrainian drone attack on Kubinka airbase nearby reported. Military aviation activity over Moscow as part of Victory Parade preparations. (ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad)
Crimea: Heightened security and military activity due to perceived threats. Russian naval special forces deployed to coastal positions. (Два майора)
Zaporizhzhia Direction (including Stepove, Shcherbaky, Kamenskoye, Gulyaipole, Malaya Tokmachka, Temirovka, Olgovskoye): Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks in the areas of Stepove and Shcherbaky. Intense drone and artillery activity. Russian claims of successfully striking enemy targets and using drones. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Kleban-Byk: Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian M113 BTR with a Lancet drone. (Народная милиция ДНР)
Shaikovka Airbase (Kaluga Oblast, Russia): Satellite imagery reportedly shows two fires on the airbase after a Ukrainian strike. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Minsk (Belarus): General rehearsal for the military parade commemorating Victory in the Great Patriotic War. (Два майора)
St. Petersburg (Russia): Temporary suspension of shopping center operations on May 9th for security. (ТАСС)
Chuvashia (Russia): Transport restrictions and potential mobile internet restrictions on May 9th for security. (ТАСС)
Kharkiv Oblast: Russian strikes using UMPK reported. (Colonelcassad)
Cherkasy and Smela (Cherkasy Oblast): Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported. (Colonelcassad)
Chernihiv and Chernihiv Oblast: Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported. (Colonelcassad)
Zhytomyr and Zhytomyr Oblast: Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported. (Colonelcassad)
Vyshgorod and Brovary (Kyiv Oblast): Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported. (Colonelcassad)
Dnipropetrovsk and Synelnykove area (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Russian strikes using Iskander-M reported. (Colonelcassad)
Mykolaiv area (Mykolaiv Oblast): Russian strikes using Bandedroli and Geran/Gerbera drones reported. (Colonelcassad)
Donbas (including Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk, Dobropillya, Slovyansk): Russian strikes using UMPK and Geran/Gerbera drones reported. (Colonelcassad)
Konotop (Sumy Oblast): Russian strikes using Iskander-M reported. (Colonelcassad)
White Church, Skvyra, Vasylkiv (Kyiv Oblast): Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк)
Uman area: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Kremenchuk area: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Pereyaslav area: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. (Николаевский Ванёк)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Increased and widespread Russian drone activity reported across multiple oblasts (Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Bryansk, Kursk, Sumy, Moscow, Kaluga, Tula). Ukrainian General Staff reports 145 kamikaze drones used by Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction alone. Continued Russian drone activity observed over Kyiv. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destruction of Ukrainian artillery and vehicles using Molniya UAVs and FPV drones. Ukrainian drone attack confirmed on a fiber optic systems plant in Saransk. Ukrainian unit requesting a ground drone for operations near Dvorichna. Potential cellular and internet restrictions in Tver and Chuvashia Oblasts due to drone threat. Temporary airport restrictions in Tambov due to a "Kovyor" plan. Ukrainian drone attack on Kubinka airbase near Moscow reported. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian mortar crew and M113 BTR with Lancet drones. Russian claims of destroying 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Kaluga, Tula, and Moscow regions. Russian claims of Ukrainian drone attack resulting in a civilian fatality in Bryansk Oblast. Oleh Vilkul reports three Russian UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs over various locations. Russian Ministry of Defense reports destroying a Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone in the Orekhov direction and an AFU field artillery gun near Gulyaipole using FPV drones. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, MoD Russia, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, AV БогомаZ, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Ballistic Missile Activity: Ballistic missile strike on the suburbs of Sumy resulting in multiple fatalities and injuries, including children. Russian strikes using Iskander-M missiles reported in Kyiv, Konotop, Dnipropetrovsk, and Synelnykove area. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian forces utilized 7 KABs in 3 aerial strikes in the Kharkiv direction. Confirmed civilian fatality and injuries in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to a Russian KAB strike. Russian strikes using UMPK (likely KABs) reported in Sumy, Donbas, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Colonelcassad)
Tactical Aviation: Active in the Kharkiv direction, conducting aerial strikes. Russian military aviation activity over Moscow as part of Victory Parade preparations. Russian aviation reportedly involved in strikes across Ukraine. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Colonelcassad)
Naval Situation: Trump's statement regarding the US ceasing strikes on Houthis is a significant development in the Red Sea, although not independently confirmed. Israeli strikes on Sana'a airport in Yemen suggest continued regional military activity. Russian naval special forces deployed to coastal positions in Crimea. (Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Военкор Котенок, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Artillery: Ukrainian General Staff reports 715 shelling incidents by Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction. Russian forces reportedly engaged a Ukrainian vehicle near Predtechino with artillery before FPV drone destruction. Russian claims of 66 strikes by Ukrainian forces on border settlements in Bryansk Oblast. Intense artillery fire reported on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian mortar crew with Lancet drone. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, MoD Russia, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Народная милиция ДНР)
MLRS: Apparent first combat deployment and operation of North Korean 240-mm MLRS M1991 by Russian forces reported. (Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Germany: Friedrich Merz has been officially elected as the new Federal Chancellor. This is a significant political change in a key international partner for Ukraine.
Russia: Preparations for Victory Day continue, with military parades and symbolic events being highlighted. Russian state media is promoting narratives around being "deceived" by the West and highlighting claimed Russian achievements. Russian state media is also leveraging cultural events like the "Turetsky Choir" performance at the UN to promote their narrative. Ramzan Kadyrov addressed resignation rumors. Russian officials conducted a photo op in damaged areas and faced criticism. Russian authorities engaging in commemorative activities at a regional level. Regional procurement of military medals highlighted. Heightened security measures in major cities and regions for May 9th. (Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, MoD Russia, Два майора, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Kotsnews, ТАСС, Полиция Хабаровского края, Север.Реалии)
Ukraine: Large-scale prisoner exchange resulted in the return of 205 Ukrainian service members. Donetsk Regional Prosecutor's Office and the Ombudsman are investigating alleged execution of Ukrainian POWs. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry calls on countries not to participate in the Moscow Victory Day parade. Ukrainian parliamentary committee supported ratification of a subsoil agreement. New rules for driving exams are being prepared. Increase in the number of millionaires reported. Polish carriers are preparing for a new border blockade. Ukrainian Hryvnia appreciated against the dollar. Regional authorities are providing support for military and civilians. Ukrainian critiques of military leadership raised by a military blogger. Ukrainian commentary on the implications of US envoy's peace proposal. Biden criticizes Trump's strategy on Ukraine. (РБК-Україна, DeepState, ASTRA, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Олександр Вілкул)
International Relations: Donald Trump made a statement about the US ceasing strikes on Houthis, claiming their capitulation (not independently confirmed). Reports of halting US military aid to Ukraine without Trump's knowledge. The UK is reportedly preparing for a Russian attack. Petition for Alberta's secession from Canada registered. Israeli strikes on Sana'a, Yemen, damaging the airport. Kotsnews discusses the "Obman" narrative and Russia's achievements in international relations. Kotsnews highlights the "Turetsky Choir" performance at the UN as a diplomatic and information operation. US envoy reportedly states Putin is the main obstacle to a ceasefire. Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns comment on the Indo-Pakistan conflict and its potential links to arms supplies to Ukraine. (Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Военкор Котенок, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Incident: The recent shooting attack in Makhachkala, Dagestan, with confirmed police fatalities, remains a significant internal security concern. Major explosion and fire in a residential building in Moscow with casualties. Ukrainian drone attack on Kubinka airbase near Moscow reported. Heightened security measures in major cities and regions for May 9th. (ASTRA, Оперативный ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Два майора)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian military bloggers continue to discuss perceived shortcomings and areas for improvement. Russian Ministry of Defense is reporting on claimed successful drone interceptions and destruction of Ukrainian equipment. Russian units are conducting training exercises. Apparent first combat deployment of North Korean MLRS. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian mortar crew and M113 BTR with Lancet drones. Russian claims of destroying 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over multiple regions. Russian military blogger reports on the pace of advance. Satellite imagery reportedly shows fires at Shaikovka airbase. (Два майора, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Народная милиция ДНР, Сливочный каприз, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Security Measures: Continued interception of Ukrainian drones over Russian territory indicates ongoing security efforts. Heightened security measures in major cities and regions for May 9th, including temporary suspension of shopping centers and potential internet restrictions. Russian naval special forces deployed to coastal positions in Crimea. (ТАСС, Два майора)
Political Dynamics: Ramzan Kadyrov's statement addressing resignation rumors is relevant to internal political dynamics. Russian officials conducting a photo op in damaged areas and facing criticism highlights internal political issues and potential disconnects. (РБК-Україна, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Economy: Russian Ministry of Finance has commented on preferential mortgage programs (previous reporting).
Justice System: A human rights activist was sentenced for "fakes" about the army (previous reporting). Investigation into corruption within the Ministry of Defense. (Два майора)
Military Welfare: Report on Russian contract soldier Viktor Ovchinnikov (previous report). Russian military blogger fundraising for veteran (previous report). Regional procurement of military medals highlighted. (ASTRA, Военкор Котенок, Север.Реалии)
Fire Safety Regulations: Concerns about fire safety regulations hindering drone defense measures for businesses (previous report). (Kotsnews)
Information Operations: Highlighting claimed military successes and historical narratives. (MoD Russia, Басурин о главном, WarGonzo, Kotsnews)
Preparation for Victory Day: Showcasing preparations, awarding of badges, and military parades in Russia and Belarus. Heightened security measures implemented. (Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, Два майора, ТАСС, Полиция Хабаровского края, Север.Реаlii)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Prisoner Exchange: A large-scale prisoner exchange resulted in the return of 205 Ukrainian service members. (РБК-Україна, DeepState, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Олександр Вілкул)
Military Support: Ukrainian regional authorities are addressing requests from defenders and providing support. Fundraising efforts for military units continue actively on both sides, with specific campaigns for drones and other equipment. Russian units are conducting training exercises. Ukrainian forces are highlighting fallen heroes to maintain morale and remembrance. Apparent first combat deployment of North Korean MLRS by Russian forces. (Олександр Вілкул, STERNENKO, Два майора, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України)
Social Support: Ukrainian regional authorities are providing free food packages to residents and IDPs. Ukrainian government is addressing social support for IDPs, particularly housing (previous reporting).
Medical Support: Returned Ukrainian POWs will receive medical aid and rehabilitation. Discussions on tactical medicine are ongoing (previous reporting).

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Utilizing ballistic missiles (Iskander-M), Guided Aerial Bombs (UMPK), FPV drones, Lancet drones, artillery, tanks, and potentially North Korean 240-mm MLRS M1991. Employing specific tactics for offensive operations on the Southern Donetsk direction. Conducting training exercises for tank units. Claiming successful use of FPV drones and Lancet drones to target Ukrainian equipment. Implementing increased security measures in response to drone threats. Deploying naval special forces for coastal control in Crimea. Russian military blogger provides data on the pace of advance. (MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Народная милиция ДНР, Два майора, Сливочный каприз, Alex Parker Returns)
Ukraine: Employing air defense systems, F-16s with air-to-air missiles against drones, various military units in defensive and offensive actions. Conducting prisoner exchanges. Implementing administrative changes related to mobilization and social support. Utilizing drones for reconnaissance and potentially targeting within Russia. Investigating alleged war crimes. Using various military units in counterattacks on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, DeepState, ASTRA, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Олександр Вілкул, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The large-scale prisoner exchange is a significant humanitarian achievement and can contribute to maintaining morale within the Ukrainian armed forces and society.
The tragic ballistic missile strike on Sumy, with multiple civilian fatalities and injuries, underscores the continued threat to civilian populations and highlights the indiscriminate nature of some Russian strikes. This reinforces the need for enhanced air defense capabilities across Ukraine and humanitarian support for affected regions.
The alleged execution of Ukrainian POWs, currently under investigation, is a potential war crime that carries significant strategic implications. If confirmed, it could impact future prisoner exchanges, influence the treatment of captured personnel, and serve as a focal point for international condemnation and demands for accountability.
The continued high-intensity ground combat on key axes, particularly the Russian claims of expanding control on the Southern Donetsk direction and the Ukrainian claim of regaining tactical initiative on the Pokrovsk direction, indicates that both sides are actively pursuing operational objectives and that the front lines remain highly contested. The Russian objective of reaching the Dnipropetrovsk border by May 9th, if accurate, indicates a clear operational goal and the strategic importance of this timeframe for Russia. The Russian military blogger's data on the pace of advance provides a quantitative measure of claimed Russian progress.
The ongoing Ukrainian drone activity targeting multiple Russian regions, including Moscow and military airbases like Kubinka and Shaikovka, highlights Ukraine's continued capability and intent to strike within Russia, potentially to exert pressure and disrupt security and military infrastructure. The Russian response, including claiming interceptions and reporting civilian casualties from Ukrainian drone attacks in border regions, emphasizes the impact of drone warfare on both sides and their efforts to control the narrative around these attacks. The confirmed deployment of North Korean MLRS by Russia suggests a new dimension to the conflict and potentially increased firepower available to Russian forces, which could influence the dynamics on the front lines.
Donald Trump's statement regarding the US ceasing strikes on Houthis, while unconfirmed by other sources, could have significant geopolitical implications if it reflects a potential shift in US policy in the Middle East.
The official election of Friedrich Merz as the new German Chancellor is a notable political development in a key international partner for Ukraine. His previous stances on military aid, including the potential provision of Taurus missiles, will be closely watched for their impact on German support for Ukraine.
The internal criticism within Russia regarding officials' photo op in damaged areas of Kursk Oblast highlights potential disconnects between the leadership and the experiences of those affected by the conflict, which could impact morale and public perception within Russia.
The continued fundraising efforts for military units on both sides underscore the ongoing resource needs and the reliance on public and private support to sustain operations. The specific focus on drones and other equipment highlights their perceived importance in the current conflict.
The report of halting US military aid to Ukraine without Trump's knowledge, if true, suggests potential internal political challenges in the US regarding support for Ukraine, which could impact future aid packages and strategic planning.
The Russian state media's emphasis on the "Obman" narrative and claimed Russian achievements, along with leveraging cultural events for propaganda, indicates their continued efforts to shape the information space and justify the conflict domestically and internationally. The large-scale preparations for Victory Day and associated security measures highlight the political and symbolic importance of this event for the Russian leadership and its potential use for propaganda.
The detention of a Russian agent in Sumy Oblast is a significant counter-intelligence success for Ukraine and underscores the ongoing efforts by both sides to gather intelligence through human networks.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report