Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 1, 2025, 15:33 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be characterized by intense ground fighting, persistent Russian aerial attacks, and dynamic diplomatic and internal Russian developments. The verified deployment of North Korean troops to Kursk Oblast remains a significant factor, alongside reports of internal discontent within Russia concerning the conflict. Diplomatic efforts regarding potential peace settlements are ongoing, with the US expressing a desire to facilitate convergence between Ukrainian and Russian positions. Russia's financial situation is highlighted by upward revisions to its budget deficit forecast, while Ukraine remains focused on reconstruction and military support. Recent information includes claims of Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, allegedly causing civilian casualties, and sustained information operations surrounding the US-Ukraine resource deal, with assertions that it lacks security guarantees and is largely symbolic. Reports persist regarding issues within the Russian military procurement system, specifically involving faulty drone jamming systems, and internal dissent concerning the treatment of military personnel. Recent reporting indicates Russian forces have reportedly broken into the settlement of Bogatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction and are engaged in fighting in the southeastern part of the village. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces from the 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's RUBAC "Katenyata" unit claim to have destroyed a Russian 2S4 "Tyulpan" self-propelled mortar on the outskirts of Berkhivka. Additionally, President Zelenskyy has announced new sanctions packages targeting entities and individuals supporting Russia's military production, occupation of Ukrainian territories, and propaganda efforts, including Ukrainian citizens involved in pro-Russian information operations. A report from Russian sources highlights the export variant of the Russian "Pantsir-ME" naval anti-aircraft missile and gun system being integrated into the air defense system of a new North Korean destroyer, the "Choe Hyon," emphasizing a "revolutionary leap" in the North Korean navy. Reports also indicate Telegram has removed five channels associated with Chuvash nationalists, which the creator attributes to pressure from the FSB, with some channels linked to an alleged assassination attempt and registered to Ukrainian numbers. TASS reports that the US has reportedly not confirmed its participation in the fourth round of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, initially scheduled for May 3rd. New reporting indicates a threat of Russian strike UAVs in the Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the reported departure of Mike Waltz as Trump's National Security Advisor. Politico reports that Ukraine and the US have signed three documents related to the mineral resources agreement, with initial delays but ultimately all three signed after last-minute Ukrainian requests for changes. Russian sources continue to frame the US-Ukraine mineral deal negatively, citing the New York Times, stating it lacks security guarantees and will not have significant impact if the war continues, but also noting some hope among Kyiv supporters that it could incentivize Trump. A video is circulating purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv. ASTRA reports on a Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia, potentially for prisoner exchanges, highlighting instances of individuals who have been exchanged. A Russian military blogger claims that fighters of the 27th Motor Rifle Division have closed a pocket with two forest belts south of Uspenivka and are approaching Novooleksandrivka from the south. BUTUSOV PLUS shares a video reportedly showing a Russian "soldier of fortune" being engaged by Ukrainian drones near dragon's teeth obstacles in Belgorod Oblast, highlighting the continued use of drones against individual Russian soldiers and the challenges of frontal assaults. A Russian source marks May 1st as the founding day of PMC Wagner and shares associated propaganda. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the cancellation of the air raid alert. Ukrainian sources share videos purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv. The President's Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shares a video claiming drone operators on the Novopavlivka direction have created a "KILL ZONE" for Russian infantry and equipment. TASS reports that Politico states Special Envoy Stephen Witkoff may replace Mike Waltz as Trump's National Security Advisor. A Russian military blogger thanks subscribers of "Two Majors" and "Paratrooper's Diary" for fundraising support for airborne assault units on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Russian sources share a video purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv, stating he was "wounded in the ass." The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs in the Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad provides a summary of the situation on the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming Russian advances, repelled Ukrainian counterattacks, and the disruption of Ukrainian logistics. A Russian source reports on an incident in Sheremetyevo airport where police and taxi drivers allegedly scammed military personnel, highlighting internal issues and corruption. Alex Parker Returns shares a past statement from Yulia Latynina praising President Zelenskyy, which is likely a commentary on leadership perceptions. The Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" shares a video focusing on medical training for Ukrainian soldiers. ASTRA reports the reported dismissal of Mike Waltz and his deputy Alex Wong from the Trump administration's National Security Council, citing Fox News. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares an image of a historical map of Ukraine and a quote, likely related to national identity and historical claims. WarGonzo shares a video about the reconnaissance efforts of the "Cascade" brigade, highlighting the speed of deployment to avoid counter-battery fire from HIMARS and promoting an upcoming report. RBC-Ukraine reports that Special Envoy Witkoff is the main candidate to replace Waltz. A Russian military blogger also reports on Waltz's dismissal, attributing it to a Signal information leak and suggesting Witkoff as a replacement. Operational ZSU comments on Witkoff as a potentially "incompetent" replacement. The Russian Ministry of Defense shares a video claiming AGS-17 and mortar fire of the "Vostok" Group of Forces is supporting advances and disrupting Ukrainian rotations on the Southern Donetsk direction near Otradnoye and Fyodorovka. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming remote mining is effective in urban battles, showing damaged M-113s. TASS reports on police using tear gas during a May Day demonstration in Paris and the first regular flight from Moscow to Sukhumi after a long break. The Ukrainian Air Force announces the cancellation of the threat. RBC-Ukraine reports that Waltz and his deputy have been dismissed from the National Security Council, citing Fox News. Serhiy Lysak, Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration, reports that three districts in the oblast were under enemy fire during the day, including Nikopol, Zelenodolsk, and Synelnykove. He details the impact in Nikopol, where a 47-year-old woman was injured by artillery and FPV drones, and damage occurred to homes, outbuildings, a gas pipeline, and a fire in a dacha, with 30 farm animals killed. In Zelenodolsk, infrastructure was damaged by a drone, but no casualties. In Synelnykove, a private house was destroyed by a drone.

Key Operational Updates:

• Intense Ground Combat: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 93 combat engagements as of 16:00 on May 1st.
  • Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most active, with 26 Russian assault attempts (6 ongoing). Ukrainian forces repelled 20 attacks. Russian forces conducted airstrikes with guided bombs on Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad claims Russian advances in Udachne and Kotlino and increased tempo towards Pokrovsk, with attempts to bypass Ukrainian defenses. Podddubny highlights the "Center" Group of Forces operating on this axis and claims destruction of Ukrainian and Western equipment with drones.
  • Lyman Direction: 17 Russian attacks reported (7 ongoing) in the areas of Nadiya, Yampilivka, Kolodyazi, towards Hrekivka and Zelenaya Dolina. Ukrainian forces maintain defenses. ISW reports Russian advances under Lyman.
  • Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian attacks reported near Novoosynove, Hlushkivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Russian assaults reported near Chasiv Yar, Novomarkove, and towards Bila Hora. Ukrainian defenders stopped 2 attacks, with 3 ongoing. Russian military expert Andrey Marochko claims significant advances by the Russian Armed Forces in the center of Chasiv Yar.
  • Toretsk Direction: 3 combat engagements reported near Shcherbynivka, Druzhba, and towards Dyliivka. Claims of Russian advances in Toretsk. ISW reports Ukrainian forces have advanced near Toretsk. ISW also reports Russian advances on the Toretsk direction.
  • Novopavlivka Direction: 6 Russian attacks reported near Pryvilne and Vilne Pole (2 ongoing). Russian airstrikes on Novopil, Rozivka, Svyatopetrivka, and Zelene. The President's Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shares a video claiming drone operators here have created a "KILL ZONE."
  • Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia Front): Heavy fighting continues. Ukrainian forces stopped 4 Russian attacks near Lobkove, Kamyanske, and Stepove. Russian airstrikes on Novodanylivka, Orikhiv, and Novoandriivka. Russian airborne forces reportedly receive air support from low-flying aircraft. A Russian military blogger notes that units on the Zaporizhzhia front are still engaged in daily battles despite hearing about "peace plans" on television. A Russian military blogger thanks subscribers for fundraising support for airborne assault units on this direction. Colonelcassad reports Russian UAV operators of the "Dnepr" group destroyed Ukrainian equipment on this direction.
  • Southern Donetsk Direction: Ongoing intense fighting. Russian forces reportedly continue to strengthen control and repelled five counterattacks. Claims of advances towards Bohaytr, Otradne, Shevchenko, and Vilne Pole, approaching the southern outskirts of Malynivka. Artillery and drones are reportedly disrupting Ukrainian logistics and engineering work. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for assault units operating on this direction. Russian sources claim Russian forces have broken into the settlement of Bogatyr and are fighting in the southeastern part of the village. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for assault units on this direction. "Archangel Spetsnaz" shares photos and a video of a painting made for paratroopers on the front line. Two Mayors military bloggers are thanking readers for 100 FPV drones and continuing fundraising for equipment. Colonelcassad provides a summary of the situation here, claiming Russian advances, repelled Ukrainian counterattacks, and the disruption of Ukrainian logistics. The Russian Ministry of Defense shares a video claiming AGS-17 and mortar fire is supporting advances and disrupting Ukrainian rotations here.
  • Kharkiv Direction: Ukrainian forces repelling 2 Russian attacks near Vovchansk and towards Novovasylivka. Claims of enemy plans for chemical weapon provocation and Russian fire damage on a Ukrainian combat group and vehicle on the Liptsy section. Claims of Russian advances in forest belts on the Vovchansk section. Border areas of Sumy Oblast (Myropilske, Ponomarenky, Bratenytsia, Novodmytrivka, Dmytrivka, Hirky, Bilokopytove, Novovasylivka, Mykhailivka, Sosnivka, Bila Bereza, Velyka Pysarivka) and Kharkiv Oblast (Tymofiivka) suffered artillery and mortar fire. Russian airstrikes on Rohivka, Krasnopillia, and Uhroidy in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces using barrel artillery and MLRS against Russian positions on the Vovchansk direction, destroying three enemy UAV piloting points and neutralizing nine occupiers. Reports of a drone attack on Kharkiv, with a bag of nails attached to the drone, intended to maximize civilian casualties. Ukrainian Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" is sharing photos and videos of soldiers training and preparing positions. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of a threat of Russian strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs in this oblast. The Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" shares a video focusing on medical training.
  • Siversk Direction: 1 combat engagement towards Verkhnokamyanske and Serebryanka.
  • Prydniprovskyi Direction: Russian airstrikes on Kherson and Tiahynka.
  • Kherson Direction: Ukrainian artillery from the 126th Territorial Defense Brigade of Odesa reportedly striking Russian forces. Russian attempts to land on Buhaz and Kozulyskyi islands opposite Kherson to potentially cross the Dnipro have been repelled. Russian sources claim Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, during a fair, resulting in alleged civilian casualties (around 7 killed, over 20 injured) and a second wave of drones targeting emergency responders. A map shows a concentration of Russian military units south and east of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region.
  • Berkhivka Area: Ukrainian forces from the 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's RUBAC "Katenyata" unit claim to have destroyed a Russian 2S4 "Tyulpan" self-propelled mortar on the outskirts of Berkhivka.
  • Novooleksandrivka Area: A Russian military blogger claims that fighters of the 27th Motor Rifle Division have closed a pocket with two forest belts south of Uspenivka and are approaching Novooleksandrivka from the south.
  • Belgorod Oblast: BUTUSOV PLUS shares a video reportedly showing a Russian "soldier of fortune" being engaged by Ukrainian drones near dragon's teeth obstacles in this oblast, highlighting the continued use of drones against individual Russian soldiers.
• Kursk Direction: 21 combat engagements reported (5 ongoing). 13 Russian airstrikes (18 guided bombs) and 116 artillery shellings (4 from MLRS). ISW reports Ukrainian forces have advanced in Kursk Oblast. Confirmed involvement of North Korean troops. Reports of civilian casualties in Rylsk from alleged Ukrainian UAV strike. Russian sources report on the evacuation of civilians from the Sudzhansky border area during fighting for Gornal and shelling of Guev. Russian military bloggers are sharing claimed unique archival footage of the evacuation of civilians from the Sudzhansky border area during fighting for Gornal and shelling of Guev. A Russian source shares a story highlighting the human impact of the conflict in Sudzha, where a couple was affected by shelling.
• Russian Aerial Activity and Impact: Continued widespread Russian aerial bombardment with guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, and reports of tactical aviation activity with threat of aerial weapons on southern, southeastern, eastern, and northeastern directions, including guided aerial bombs towards Kherson. Civilian areas continue to be impacted. Reports of a drone attack on Kharkiv with a bag of nails attached to the drone. Persistent drone and ballistic missile threats were reported targeting Odesa Oblast, with confirmed fatalities and injuries from previous attacks. Russian sources are sharing claimed videos of the work of "Krasnopol" guided artillery shells targeting dugouts and shelters in buildings on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of a threat of Russian strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs in the Kharkiv Oblast. Serhiy Lysak, Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration, reports that three districts in the oblast were under enemy fire during the day, including Nikopol (artillery and FPV drones), Zelenodolsk (drone), and Synelnykove (drone), resulting in civilian casualties and damage. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming remote mining is effective and shows damaged M-113s.
• Ukrainian Claims of Gains: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports preventing critical losses and breakthroughs in April, and regaining a total of 115 positions during the month through active defense tactics.
• Naval Situation: Russian missile carriers with "Kalibr" missiles remain in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea. A Russian source highlights the integration of the Russian "Pantsir-ME" naval anti-aircraft system into a new North Korean destroyer, emphasizing the technological advancement for the North Korean navy.
• Diplomatic and Political Developments:
  • The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated Russia will never allow Ukraine to return to its 1991 borders, linking Ukrainian claims to an alleged "man-eating instinct to exterminate everything Russian."
  • US Vice President J.D. Vance stated the US aims to bridge the positions of Ukraine and Russia in the next 100 days and that the US is moving at full speed to implement the resource deal with Ukraine, viewing it as a way for Kyiv to pay for aid received. A Trump advisor echoed this, stating the deal benefits US taxpayers and Ukraine and that negotiation with Russia is progressing. Ukrainian sources quote Vance stating peace negotiations will continue for the next 100 days. White House states the US will ensure a free, peaceful, and sovereign future for Ukraine but does not specify borders. Russian sources claim the US-Ukraine resource deal is a form of neocolonial exploitation, lacks security guarantees for Ukraine, and that its terms override Ukrainian law, viewing it more as a symbolic PR move than a practical agreement. The New York Times reports the mineral deal does not include US security guarantees for Ukraine and is unlikely to matter if fighting continues. A Russian military blogger notes that, according to Duma deputies, the US-Ukraine "resource agreement" is essentially a form of neocolonial robbery where Ukraine has given up the right to regulate its subsoil use and investment, and the agreement overrides Ukrainian law, with the ability to cancel it only with the consent of both parties. TASS reports that Vance stated the US intends to organize direct negotiations on Ukraine in the next 100 days. Politico reports that Ukraine and the US have signed three documents related to the mineral resources agreement, with initial delays but ultimately all three signed after last-minute Ukrainian requests for changes. Russian sources continue to frame the US-Ukraine mineral deal negatively, citing the New York Times, stating it lacks security guarantees and will not have significant impact if the war continues, but also noting some hope among Kyiv supporters that it could incentivize Trump.
  • Ukraine imposed sanctions on nine journalists and figures, including Oleksii Arestovych, Oleksii Azarov, Oleksii Likhachev (head of Rosatom), and several Russian metallurgical plants, energy enterprises, and Novatek. President Zelenskyy has announced new sanctions packages against 36 companies and 5 individuals supporting Russian military production (titanium suppliers, metallurgy, energy, machine building), 106 entities supporting the occupation of Crimea and Donbas and supplying the Russian army, and 9 individuals (7 Ukrainian citizens) involved in pro-Russian propaganda and information operations harmful to Ukraine. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shares information about the new sanctions packages announced by President Zelenskyy.
  • Serbian President Vucic stated he will attend the May 9th Victory Day commemoration in Moscow despite criticism. Colonelcassad notes that Vucic's decision to attend the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow despite threats from Brussels is being met with continued criticism and threats from the EU.
  • TASS reports that the US has reportedly not confirmed its participation in the fourth round of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, initially scheduled for May 3rd.
  • TASS reports that Mike Waltz is expected to leave his position as National Security Advisor to Trump, as reported by CBS. RBC-Ukraine also reports on Waltz's expected departure. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the reported departure of Mike Waltz as Trump's National Security Advisor. TASS reports that Politico states Special Envoy Stephen Witkoff may replace Mike Waltz. RBC-Ukraine reports that Witkoff is the main candidate to replace Waltz. A Russian military blogger also reports on Waltz's dismissal, attributing it to a Signal information leak and suggesting Witkoff as a replacement. Operational ZSU comments on Witkoff as a potentially "incompetent" replacement. TASS reports that Waltz and his deputy Alex Wong have been dismissed from the National Security Council, citing Fox News. ASTRA also reports the reported dismissal of Waltz and Wong, citing Fox News.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares an image of a historical map of Ukraine and a quote, likely related to national identity and historical claims.
• Internal Russian Issues: Reuters reports Russia significantly revised its 2025 budget deficit forecast upwards to 1.7% of GDP from 0.5%, citing lower expected energy revenues and increased defense spending (6.3% of GDP, highest since the Cold War). Russia views international trade wars initiated by the US as a key economic risk. Russian sources report arrests of police officers and taxi drivers at Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow for allegedly scamming military personnel. Sever.Realii reports on cases of individuals with criminal histories joining PMC Wagner and committing further crimes upon return, highlighting potential issues with reintegration. Reports of politically motivated sentences in Russia, including against Ukrainian servicemen. Reports of discontent among cadets at a Russian law institute regarding soldiers in the "special military operation," labeling them negatively. A criminal case was initiated in Primorye against a woman who wrote a Z symbol on a war memorial. Reports of fake drone jamming systems being supplied to the Russian military through fraudulent contracts, highlighting potential corruption and procurement issues. Reports of a Russian military blogger mourning the death of a soldier in Ukraine. Reports of the detention of artist Pavel Krisevich in Ryazan Oblast on questionable grounds after his release from prison. ASTRA reports that Telegram has removed five channels associated with Chuvash nationalists, which the creator attributes to pressure from the FSB, with some channels linked to an alleged assassination attempt and registered to Ukrainian numbers. A Russian military blogger is sharing a video claiming a woman in Ukraine defended her husband from TCC (Territorial Recruitment Centers) personnel by hitting one with a shovel, and then was allegedly tied up and put in a well by the TCC, with the video being circulated online. This is a claim from a Russian source and requires verification. ASTRA reports on a Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia, potentially for prisoner exchanges, highlighting instances of individuals who have been exchanged. A Russian source reports on an incident in Sheremetyevo airport where police and taxi drivers allegedly scammed military personnel, highlighting internal issues and corruption. A Russian source shares a story highlighting the human impact of the conflict in Sudzha, where a couple was affected by shelling.
• Support and Rehabilitation: Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War met with families of soldiers from the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade to discuss POWs and missing personnel. In Kryvyi Rih, a large program for reconstructing hospitals and creating rehabilitation centers for military personnel is underway, with 8 centers created and 256 beds functioning, having assisted ~4,000 servicemen. Two rehabilitation centers are under repair for modernization. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for rehabilitation of soldiers and support for their families, including specific cases of injured personnel. Two Mayors military bloggers are thanking readers for providing 100 FPV drones and are continuing fundraising efforts for various equipment for assault units on the Southern Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad is fundraising for various equipment, including body armor, Starlinks, radios, and vehicles, for assault units on the Southern Donetsk direction. "Archangel Spetsnaz" shares photos and a video of a painting made for paratroopers on the front line. Ukrainian Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" is sharing photos and videos of soldiers training and preparing positions. Butusov Plus shares photos of a deceased individual, identified as "Nikita Khrushchev" with the call sign "Hrustik," and provides information about a farewell ceremony, linking it to losses in Ukraine. ASTRA reports on a Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia, potentially for prisoner exchanges, highlighting instances of individuals who have been exchanged. A Russian military blogger thanks subscribers for fundraising support for airborne assault units on the Zaporizhzhia direction. The Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" shares a video focusing on medical training for Ukrainian soldiers. A Russian source shares a story highlighting the human impact of the conflict in Sudzha, where a couple was affected by shelling and is now in a hospital in Kursk.
• Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian military bloggers are promoting content about Colombian mercenaries in Ukraine, showcasing a captured "methodical guide" and reporting an alleged death. Ramzan Kadyrov reports the departure of Chechen volunteers to the "special military operation" zone. Russian military bloggers are sharing reports on claimed Russian advances and effectiveness of their forces, including drone and artillery work. Ukrainian military bloggers are sharing videos highlighting claimed Russian losses and fundraising for equipment. Russian military bloggers continue to disseminate claims about NATO exercises practicing scenarios against Russia. Russian state media and military bloggers are promoting specific narratives, including the “liberation” of Kursk territory and the resource deal with the US. Russian sources are disseminating claims of Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, with alleged civilian casualties, framing it as a deliberate targeting of civilians. Russian sources continue to frame the US-Ukraine resource deal negatively as a predatory agreement. Russian military bloggers are sharing "military hip-hop" related to the Kursk fighting. Russian sources are fundraising for military units and specific injured soldiers. Ukrainian sources are promoting the US-Ukraine investment agreement as a step towards reconstruction and highlighting the training of Ukrainian military public relations officers in Estonia according to NATO standards. Operational ZSU highlights the White House statement about ensuring a free, peaceful, and sovereign future for Ukraine, noting the lack of clarification on borders. STERNENKO contrasts the claimed success of Ukrainian special services in eliminating a Russian general near Moscow with the Russian claimed attempt to wound a Ukrainian volunteer in Kyiv, framing it as a difference in effectiveness. Russian state media (TASS) is highlighting a "Immortal Regiment" event and the opening of a patriotic mural at the Russian Embassy in Rome, and the Serbian President's decision to attend the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow despite criticism from the EU. ASTRA reports on the removal of Telegram channels associated with Chuvash nationalists, which the creator attributes to FSB pressure, with some channels linked to an alleged assassination attempt and registered to Ukrainian numbers. A Russian military blogger is sharing a video claiming a woman in Ukraine defended her husband from TCC personnel and was then allegedly tied up and put in a well by the TCC, with the video being circulated online. Colonelcassad shares a video showing claimed work of Russian 72nd brigade in February-March 2025, including destruction of a Polish "Krab" self-propelled howitzer and a US "Stryker" armored personnel carrier. Russian sources continue to frame the US-Ukraine mineral deal negatively, citing the New York Times, stating it lacks security guarantees and will not have significant impact if the war continues, but also noting some hope among Kyiv supporters that it could incentivize Trump. A video is circulating purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv. BUTUSOV PLUS shares a video reportedly showing a Russian "soldier of fortune" being engaged by Ukrainian drones near dragon's teeth obstacles in Belgorod Oblast. A Russian source marks May 1st as the founding day of PMC Wagner and shares associated propaganda. Ukrainian sources share videos purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv. The President's Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shares a video claiming drone operators on the Novopavlivka direction have created a "KILL ZONE." The Russian Ministry of Defense shares a video claiming AGS-17 and mortar fire is supporting advances and disrupting Ukrainian rotations on the Southern Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming remote mining is effective and shows damaged M-113s. A Russian source shares a story highlighting the human impact of the conflict in Sudzha, where a couple was affected by shelling. Alex Parker Returns shares a past statement from Yulia Latynina praising President Zelenskyy. WarGonzo shares a video about the reconnaissance efforts of the "Cascade" brigade, highlighting the speed of deployment to avoid counter-battery fire from HIMARS and promoting an upcoming report. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares an image of a historical map of Ukraine and a quote, likely related to national identity and historical claims.
• Other Incidents: Reports of an explosion near a port in Germany with multiple casualties and an incident in Japan where a vehicle entered a group of schoolchildren with multiple injuries. Tensions between India and Pakistan are escalating. Negotiations between the US and Iran planned for May 3rd have been postponed. TASS reports that Mike Waltz is expected to leave his position as National Security Advisor to Trump, as reported by CBS. RBC-Ukraine also reports on Waltz's expected departure. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the reported departure of Mike Waltz as Trump's National Security Advisor. A video is circulating purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv. TASS reports that Politico states Special Envoy Stephen Witkoff may replace Mike Waltz. RBC-Ukraine reports that Witkoff is the main candidate to replace Waltz. A Russian military blogger also reports on Waltz's dismissal, attributing it to a Signal information leak and suggesting Witkoff as a replacement. Operational ZSU comments on Witkoff as a potentially "incompetent" replacement. TASS reports that Waltz and his deputy Alex Wong have been dismissed from the National Security Council, citing Fox News. ASTRA also reports the reported dismissal of Waltz and Wong, citing Fox News. TASS reports on police using tear gas during a May Day demonstration in Paris and the first regular flight from Moscow to Sukhumi after a long break. Ukrainian sources share videos purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Pokrovsk Direction: Extremely high intensity combat. 26 Russian assaults (6 ongoing). Russian airstrikes with guided bombs on Pokrovsk. Claims of Russian advances in Udachne and Kotlino. Podddubny highlights the "Center" Group of Forces operating here and claims destruction of Ukrainian and Western equipment with drones.
• Lyman Direction: High intensity combat. 17 Russian attacks reported (7 ongoing). ISW reports Russian advances under Lyman.
• Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian attacks reported.
• Kramatorsk Direction: Russian assaults near Chasiv Yar and other areas. Russian military expert claims significant advances in the center of Chasiv Yar.
• Toretsk Direction: 3 combat engagements reported. Claims of Russian advances in Toretsk. ISW reports Ukrainian forces have advanced near Toretsk. ISW also reports Russian advances on the Toretsk direction.
• Novopavlivka Direction: 6 Russian attacks reported (2 ongoing). Russian airstrikes. The President's Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shares a video claiming drone operators here have created a "KILL ZONE."
• Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia Front): Heavy fighting. 4 Russian attacks stopped. Russian airstrikes. Russian airborne forces receiving air support. Russian military blogger reports daily battles ongoing. A Russian military blogger thanks subscribers for fundraising support for airborne assault units on this direction. Colonelcassad reports Russian UAV operators of the "Dnepr" group destroyed Ukrainian equipment on this direction.
• Southern Donetsk Direction: Ongoing intense fighting. Claims of Russian advances and disruption of Ukrainian logistics. Russian military bloggers fundraising for units on this direction. Russian sources claim Russian forces have broken into the settlement of Bogatyr and are fighting in the southeastern part of the village. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for assault units on this direction. "Archangel Spetsnaz" shares photos and a video of a painting made for paratroopers on the front line. Two Mayors military bloggers are thanking readers for 100 FPV drones and are continuing fundraising efforts for various equipment for assault units on the Southern Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad provides a summary of the situation here, claiming Russian advances, repelled Ukrainian counterattacks, and the disruption of Ukrainian logistics. The Russian Ministry of Defense shares a video claiming AGS-17 and mortar fire is supporting advances and disrupting Ukrainian rotations here.
• Kharkiv Direction: Ukrainian forces repelling 2 Russian attacks near Vovchansk. Russian artillery and mortar fire on border areas. Russian airstrikes on Sumy Oblast. Claims of enemy chemical weapon provocation plans. Claims of Russian fire damage and advances in forest belts. Ukrainian forces using artillery and MLRS on Vovchansk direction, destroying three enemy UAV piloting points and neutralizing nine occupiers. Reports of a drone attack on Kharkiv with a bag of nails attached. Ukrainian Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" is sharing photos and videos of soldiers training and preparing positions. Threat of Russian strike UAVs. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs in this oblast. The Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" shares a video focusing on medical training.
• Siversk Direction: 1 combat engagement.
• Prydniprovskyi Direction: Russian airstrikes on Kherson and Tiahynka.
• Kherson Direction: Ukrainian artillery active. Russian attempts to land on islands near Kherson repelled. Russian sources claim Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky with alleged civilian casualties. A map shows Russian military units south and east of the Dnieper River in this region.
• Kursk Direction: High combat activity. 21 combat engagements (5 ongoing). Russian airstrikes and artillery. Confirmed involvement of North Korean troops. Reports of civilian casualties in Rylsk from alleged Ukrainian UAV strike. ISW reports Ukrainian forces have advanced in Kursk Oblast. Russian sources report on the evacuation of civilians from Sudzhansky border area during fighting for Gornal and shelling of Guev. Russian military bloggers are sharing claimed unique archival footage of the evacuation of civilians from the Sudzhansky border area. A Russian source shares a story highlighting the human impact of the conflict in Sudzha, where a couple was affected by shelling.
• Sumy Oblast: Russian artillery and mortar fire on border areas. Russian airstrikes. Claims of Ukrainian troop transfers to the area. Russian sources report alleged killing of three Ukrainian servicemen near Veselivka.
• Vladimir Oblast (Murom): Claimed Ukrainian drone attack on a defense plant.
• Russia (Moscow, Sheremetyevo Airport): Internal security incident involving scamming military personnel. A Russian source reports on this incident.
• Russia (Barnaul): Reports of discontent among law institute cadets regarding military personnel.
• Russia (Primorye): Criminal case against a woman for writing a Z symbol on a war memorial.
• Russia (Rybinsk, Yaroslavl Oblast): Claimed Ukrainian drone attack on a defense plant.
• Germany: Explosion near a port with multiple casualties.
• Japan: Vehicle incident with multiple injuries to schoolchildren.
• India-Pakistan Border: Escalating tensions.
• Kryvyi Rih: Implementation of a large-scale hospital reconstruction and military rehabilitation program.
• Estonia: Training of Ukrainian military public relations officers according to NATO standards.
• Russia (Oleshky, Kherson Oblast): Russian sources claim Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market with alleged civilian casualties.
• Russia (Ryazan Oblast): Detention of artist Pavel Krisevich.
• Russia: Reports of fraudulent contracts for drone jamming systems.
• Russia (Near Moscow): Claimed Ukrainian special services operation to eliminate a Russian general.
• Kyiv: Russian claimed attempted wounding of a Ukrainian volunteer. A video is circulating purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv. Ukrainian sources share videos purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv.
• Rome: Russian Embassy holding "Immortal Regiment" event and opening patriotic mural.
• Russia (Chuvashia): Telegram removing channels associated with Chuvash nationalists, attributed to FSB pressure, with some channels linked to an alleged assassination attempt.
• Berkhivka Area: Ukrainian forces claiming destruction of a Russian 2S4 "Tyulpan" self-propelled mortar.
• North Korea: New destroyer "Choe Hyon" equipped with Russian "Pantsir-ME" system.
• Iran: Negotiations on nuclear program postponed.
• United States: Mike Waltz expected to leave position as National Security Advisor to Trump. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the reported departure of Mike Waltz as Trump's National Security Advisor. Signing of three documents related to the US-Ukraine mineral resources agreement. TASS reports that Politico states Special Envoy Stephen Witkoff may replace Mike Waltz. RBC-Ukraine reports that Witkoff is the main candidate to replace Waltz. A Russian military blogger also reports on Waltz's dismissal, attributing it to a Signal information leak and suggesting Witkoff as a replacement. Operational ZSU comments on Witkoff as a potentially "incompetent" replacement. TASS reports that Waltz and his deputy Alex Wong have been dismissed from the National Security Council, citing Fox News. ASTRA also reports the reported dismissal of Waltz and Wong, citing Fox News.
• Ukraine: Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia, potentially for prisoner exchanges. ASTRA reports on this Ukrainian state project.
• Novooleksandrivka Area: A Russian military blogger claims that fighters of the 27th Motor Rifle Division are approaching Novooleksandrivka from the south.
• Belgorod Oblast: BUTUSOV PLUS shares a video reportedly showing a Russian "soldier of fortune" being engaged by Ukrainian drones near dragon's teeth obstacles in this oblast.
• Paris: TASS reports on police using tear gas during a May Day demonstration here.
• Sukhumi: TASS reports the first regular flight from Moscow has landed here after a long break.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Serhiy Lysak, Head of the Oblast Military Administration, reports that three districts were under enemy fire during the day, including Nikopol, Zelenodolsk, and Synelnykove, resulting in civilian casualties and damage.

Potential Future Developments

• Continued Russian Offensive Pressure: Expect sustained Russian assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, as they aim to achieve tactical breakthroughs and potentially reach administrative borders. The reported reinforcement of this axis by Ukrainian forces indicates anticipation of continued heavy fighting. Russian efforts on the Southern Donetsk and Sumy axes will likely continue, as will pressure on the Toretsk and Lyman axes. The significant increase in Russian attacks in the Kursk region suggests this will remain a highly active and contested area. Claimed Russian advances on multiple fronts, including the confirmed liberation of Nove on the Lyman direction and the claimed breakthrough into Bogatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction and approach to Novooleksandrivka, indicate continued efforts to gain ground.
• Persistent and Evolving Aerial Threats: Russia will likely continue widespread drone attacks, potentially with shifts in targeting and routes as seen with the recent alerts in western Ukraine and rocket danger in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Rocket danger in Kherson Oblast indicates potential for continued missile strikes in the south. Continued drone activity in border regions and against Russian infrastructure, particularly military-industrial targets and logistics hubs, is probable. The allocation of resources for remote mining and drones by Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia suggests these capabilities will be increasingly utilized. Successful Ukrainian drone strikes on targets within Russia are likely to continue. The large-scale drone attack overnight targeting Dnipro and Kharkiv is indicative of likely future patterns. The use of simulator drones suggests efforts to overwhelm or probe Ukrainian air defenses. Continued Ukrainian attempts at aerial strikes in border regions with bombers are possible, and Russian efforts to counter these will persist. Continued Russian aerial and drone attacks impacting civilian areas, as reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, are likely. The threat of guided aerial bombs in Kharkiv Oblast remains. The claimed effectiveness of remote mining in urban environments, if confirmed, suggests this tactic may be increasingly employed by Russian forces.
• Increased Diplomatic Messaging and Information Operations: Expect continued emphasis from Russian sources on readiness for negotiations, potentially linked to alleged Ukrainian vulnerabilities or military limitations and the narrative of successful counter-terrorism operations within Russia. Counter-messaging from Ukraine is also likely, focusing on Russian aggression, the need for sustained international support, and the humanitarian impact of attacks. Donald Trump's statements will continue to be a factor in this discourse. Russian rhetoric around historical events, especially WWII and Lend-Lease, is likely to continue as part of information operations. The rejection of a truce by a high-ranking Ukrainian official indicates a firm stance against a ceasefire without significant concessions. The potential for direct US-Russia dialogue adds a new dimension to diplomatic efforts. Russian reports about foreign fighters joining their ranks will likely continue to counter narratives of international support for Ukraine. Efforts to document and publicize alleged war crimes will likely continue from both sides, with awareness of international legal scrutiny. Russia will likely continue to use humanitarian aid efforts in other regions like Gaza for propaganda purposes. Propaganda surrounding the US-Ukraine resource deal is likely to continue, with both sides framing it to their advantage. The video circulating of the Serhiy Sternenko assassination attempt will likely be used by both sides in their information operations. Propaganda efforts associated with PMC Wagner, particularly on its founding day, are likely to continue. Russian reporting on the alleged scamming of military personnel at Sheremetyevo airport may be used to highlight internal issues or portray those involved negatively. Sharing stories about the human impact of the conflict in border regions is likely to continue as a propaganda tactic. Russian sources may continue to use historical narratives and imagery for political messaging. Russian state media is likely to continue promoting symbolic events like the May Day demonstrations in Paris and international flights to Abkhazia for internal and external audiences.
• Focus on Internal Russian Security and Information Operations: Russian authorities will likely continue to highlight alleged Ukrainian sabotage and assassination attempts within Russia, particularly the details of the Khanty-Mansiysk, Rostov, and Barnaul incidents, to justify security measures and reinforce the narrative of a hostile Ukrainian regime and the need for vigilance. Military parades and symbolic actions like airport renaming will likely be used for internal morale and to project an image of normalcy and strength. Efforts to recruit minors for sabotage activities, as claimed by Russian sources, would be a concerning development if verified. Increased convictions for acts perceived as terrorism linked to the conflict highlight a crackdown on internal dissent and actions against infrastructure. Potential large-scale mobilization in Russia remains a significant concern, although the timing and nature are uncertain. Efforts to control internet access within Russia are likely to continue. Propaganda efforts commemorating figures associated with the war will continue. The reported removal of Telegram channels associated with Chuvash nationalists and their link to an alleged assassination attempt and FSB pressure indicates ongoing internal security measures against perceived dissent. The alleged scamming of military personnel at Sheremetyevo airport highlights potential issues with internal security and corruption impacting military personnel. The reported dismissal of Mike Waltz and his deputy and the potential replacement highlight internal political dynamics within the US, which are closely watched by Russia and Ukraine.
• Debate on European Military Support: Discussions within European nations regarding the feasibility and nature of military support deployments to Ukraine are likely to continue, with a potential shift towards training and non-combat roles being considered by some. The approved sale of Patriot systems to Romania highlights ongoing efforts to strengthen NATO's eastern flank, but also points to limitations in the global supply of critical air defense components for Ukraine. Statements like that from the Estonian Prime Minister indicate potential for further concrete contributions.
• Information Operations Regarding External Support and Casualties: Russian sources will likely continue to frame international support for Ukraine, particularly from the UK and the US, as efforts to prolong the conflict and hinder peace, while also highlighting alleged involvement of foreign fighters and their casualties (such as the claims regarding North Korean and French personnel) and highlighting perceived Western limitations (US debt, European troop shortfalls). Ukrainian sources will continue to emphasize the need for Western aid and the effectiveness of received equipment. Claims of increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory to disrupt peace talks are likely to continue.
• Speculation on Ukrainian Offensive Plans: Russian sources may continue to disseminate speculative narratives about potential Ukrainian offensives, such as the claimed plans for an attack towards Crimea, potentially to justify defensive measures or portray Ukraine as the aggressor.
• Continued Humanitarian Impact: Ongoing fighting and aerial attacks will likely continue to result in civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure, particularly in frontline areas and targeted regions, as seen in the reports from Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Dobropillia. The reported death of a woman in Horlivka is a somber reminder of this. Efforts by Ukrainian organizations to raise international awareness about the human cost will likely continue. The focus on prisoners of war and missing persons by Ukraine indicates these will remain key humanitarian issues. The reported civilian casualties and damage in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast highlight the ongoing humanitarian impact of Russian actions. The story about the couple affected by shelling in Sudzha also serves as a reminder of the humanitarian cost.
• Development and Deployment of Unmanned Systems and Countermeasures: The reported destruction of Ukrainian EW systems and armored vehicles by Russian drones, the Ukrainian testing of smart mining and demining technologies, and continued fundraising efforts for drones by both sides indicate the ongoing importance of unmanned systems and electronic warfare in the conflict. The reported liquidation of a Ukrainian EW head suggests a targeted effort by Russia against these capabilities. The significant supply of drones and remote mining capabilities to Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia suggests these will play a major role in future operations in that sector. Ukrainian success in destroying a Russian mobile EW complex highlights the ongoing EW struggle. Russian adaptation of readily available technology like gyroscooters for military use is likely to continue. Ukrainian efforts to incentivize drone effectiveness through programs like the "Army of Drones bonus" are likely to continue and expand. Continued video evidence from both sides showcasing drone strikes is probable. The claimed effectiveness of drone operators in creating "KILL ZONES" on the Novopavlivka direction suggests continued reliance on and effectiveness of these systems. The claimed effectiveness of remote mining in urban battles, if confirmed, suggests this tactic may be increasingly employed by Russian forces. WarGonzo's focus on the speed of reconnaissance drone deployment to avoid HIMARS counter-battery fire highlights the ongoing interplay between drone operations and artillery.
• Mine Clearance Operations: Ongoing and potentially protracted mine clearance efforts in areas like Kursk Oblast will be necessary before civilian life can fully resume. The high number of remote mining devices supplied to Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia indicates extensive mining of that area is also underway.
• Logistical Connectivity: The construction of a new bridge between Russia and North Korea indicates a strategic effort to enhance logistical ties, potentially facilitating the transfer of military supplies or personnel. The resumption of flights between Moscow and Sukhumi may also have logistical implications for Russia's influence in Abkhazia.
• Internal Ukrainian Military Adjustments: The reported extension of the period for voluntary return from AWOL and the introduction of online reporting reflect efforts to address personnel issues and improve internal discipline.
• Economic Impacts: Reports of a sharp decline in Russian GDP growth could influence Russia's long-term ability to sustain the conflict. Ongoing issues with internet access in certain Russian regions could have economic and social implications.
• Political Messaging and Symbolism: Preparations for the Victory Day parade in Moscow and the attendance of foreign leaders like China's Xi Jinping are significant for domestic and international political messaging. The planned film about Putin further contributes to this. Ukrainian threats or actions against the parade, as speculated by Ukrainian sources, would be a significant escalation if they materialized.
• International Advocacy for Prisoners of War: Ukrainian efforts to highlight the issue of prisoners of war at international forums like the UN will likely continue to pressure Russia and mobilize international support for their release. The Ukrainian state project on convicted collaborators awaiting potential exchange highlights a concrete effort in this area.
• Cybersecurity as a Domain of Conflict: The report on potential AirPlay vulnerabilities highlights the continued importance of cybersecurity in the conflict, potentially impacting military communications and systems. The reported dismissal of US National Security Council personnel due to a Signal leak, if confirmed, underscores the importance of secure communications and the potential consequences of breaches.
• Military-Technical Cooperation: The integration of the Russian "Pantsir-ME" system into a North Korean destroyer highlights ongoing military-technical cooperation between Russia and North Korea, which could have implications for naval capabilities and the wider geopolitical landscape.
• Domestic Unrest: The use of tear gas by police during a May Day demonstration in Paris indicates potential for domestic unrest in other countries, which could indirectly impact international support or focus on the conflict.

Potential Indicators

• Observable changes in the intensity or direction of Russian ground assaults on the Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Sumy, and Kursk axes and other claimed areas of advance, including verification of the claimed breakthrough into Bogatyr and approach to Novooleksandrivka. Confirmed Russian liberation of Nove and claimed advances on multiple fronts require verification from independent sources.
• Reports of successful defensive actions and claimed Russian losses by Ukrainian forces on key axes, supported by visual evidence. Any observed impact of claimed "KILL ZONES" on the Novopavlivka direction.
• Confirmation of missile launches and impacts, particularly from Russian tactical aviation on frontline areas and any new targeting patterns in Kherson, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Reports of continued KAB strikes, especially in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Reports of successful air defense engagements against Russian strike UAVs, particularly in Dnipro and Kharkiv, and western Ukrainian oblasts. The effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses against large-scale drone attacks will be a key indicator. Reports of intercepted simulator drones.
• Further reports or evidence of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, particularly targeting military-industrial facilities and logistics, and claimed interceptions by Russian forces. Reports of continued explosions or incidents at Russian military or infrastructure sites, including the Murom Instrument-Making Plant. Independent verification or refutation of claims regarding Ukrainian bomber activity in border regions and presented wreckage. Observable use of drones against individual Russian soldiers in border regions.
• Changes in the rhetoric or official stance of Russian and Ukrainian officials regarding peace negotiations, and any statements or actions from Donald Trump impacting this. The rejection of a truce by a high-ranking Ukrainian official is a significant indicator. Any further information regarding potential direct US-Russia dialogue.
• Further details or developments regarding the alleged Ukrainian agents and their activities within Russia, including court proceedings or additional detentions related to the Khanty-Mansiysk, Rostov, and Barnaul incidents. Any independent verification or refutation of claims regarding the recruitment of minors for sabotage. Continued convictions for acts perceived as terrorism will be an indicator of internal security measures. Any follow-up on the reported scamming of military personnel at Sheremetyevo airport. Any further information regarding the reported dismissal of US National Security Council personnel.
• Statements or decisions from European nations regarding the nature and scale of potential military support deployments to Ukraine, including follow-up on the Estonian Prime Minister's statement.
• Continued dissemination of information operations from both sides regarding military successes, casualties, and external support, including new narratives surrounding North Korean involvement and alleged foreign fighters and their casualties (such as the claims regarding North Korean and French personnel) and highlighting perceived Western limitations (US debt, European troop shortfalls). Russian messaging regarding Lend-Lease and WWII alliances. Claims of increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory to disrupt peace talks. Continued promotion of Russian humanitarian aid efforts in other regions. Any notable information operations surrounding the US-Ukraine resource deal or the Serhiy Sternenko assassination attempt. Continued propaganda associated with PMC Wagner. Continued use of historical narratives and imagery in political messaging by Russian sources.
• Independent verification or detailed reporting on alleged Ukrainian force movements and activities in southern Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts, including any evidence of preparations for offensive operations.
• Continued reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure from shelling and aerial attacks, with detailed information on affected areas like Kharkiv, Dnipro, Dobropillia, and border regions of Russia like Bryansk and Belgorod, and now Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The continuation of international advocacy efforts highlighting the humanitarian cost, particularly concerning prisoners of war and missing persons. Any further stories or reports highlighting the human impact of the conflict in border regions.
• Any observed changes in the types or numbers of drones and EW systems being deployed by either side, and the success of related fundraising efforts. Reports on the outcomes or further deployment of the smart mining and demining technologies tested by Ukraine. Evidence of the deployment and effectiveness of the newly supplied drones and remote mining capabilities in Zaporizhzhia. Reports on the impact of the destruction of the Russian "Borshchevik" EW complex. The continued publicizing of alleged war crimes by both sides. Evidence of the operational use and effectiveness of improvised robotic vehicles by Russian forces. Updates on the implementation and effectiveness of Ukraine's "Army of Drones bonus" program. Continued video evidence of drone strikes from both sides. Any evidence of increased use of remote mining in urban environments.
• Reports on the progress and challenges of mine clearance operations in border regions and in areas like Zaporizhzhia.
• Any observable impact of potential US responses to Houthi attacks on the US military's presence or activities in other regions relevant to the conflict.
• Further information regarding the reported liquidation of the Ukrainian EW head and its impact on capabilities in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
• Updates on the implementation and impact of potential changes to Ukrainian TCC staffing and the deployment of wounded personnel to non-combat roles. The effectiveness of measures to address AWOL personnel.
• Further economic indicators from Russia and analysis of their potential impact on military expenditure. Reports on the resolution or continuation of internet access issues in the North Caucasus.
• Any unusual security measures or incidents related to the Victory Day parade in Moscow. The attendance of foreign leaders.
• Continued reports or actions related to international efforts to address the issue of prisoners of war. Any observable movement or exchange of the convicted collaborators detailed in the Ukrainian state project.
• Reports or assessments of the cybersecurity threat landscape, particularly regarding the exploitation of vulnerabilities like those potentially present in AirPlay and any confirmed impact of the alleged Signal leak.
• Any observable impact of the new North Korean destroyer "Choe Hyon" and its Russian "Pantsir-ME" system on naval operations or the balance of power in the region. Any further indicators of Russian-North Korean military-technical cooperation.
• Any reports or analysis of the impact of the May Day demonstration and police response in Paris on the domestic situation in France. Any impact of the resumed flights between Moscow and Sukhumi on the geopolitical situation in the Caucasus.