Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 1, 2025, 15:03 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be characterized by intense ground fighting, persistent Russian aerial attacks, and dynamic diplomatic and internal Russian developments. The verified deployment of North Korean troops to Kursk Oblast remains a significant factor, alongside reports of internal discontent within Russia concerning the conflict. Diplomatic efforts regarding potential peace settlements are ongoing, with the US expressing a desire to facilitate convergence between Ukrainian and Russian positions. Russia's financial situation is highlighted by upward revisions to its budget deficit forecast, while Ukraine remains focused on reconstruction and military support. Recent information includes claims of Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, allegedly causing civilian casualties, and sustained information operations surrounding the US-Ukraine resource deal, with assertions that it lacks security guarantees and is largely symbolic. Reports persist regarding issues within the Russian military procurement system, specifically involving faulty drone jamming systems, and internal dissent concerning the treatment of military personnel. Recent reporting indicates Russian forces have reportedly broken into the settlement of Bogatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction and are engaged in fighting in the southeastern part of the village. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces from the 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's RUBAC "Katenyata" unit claim to have destroyed a Russian 2S4 "Tyulpan" self-propelled mortar on the outskirts of Berkhivka. Additionally, President Zelenskyy has announced new sanctions packages targeting entities and individuals supporting Russia's military production, occupation of Ukrainian territories, and propaganda efforts, including Ukrainian citizens involved in pro-Russian information operations. A report from Russian sources highlights the export variant of the Russian "Pantsir-ME" naval anti-aircraft missile and gun system being integrated into the air defense system of a new North Korean destroyer, the "Choe Hyon," emphasizing a "revolutionary leap" in the North Korean navy. Reports also indicate Telegram has removed five channels associated with Chuvash nationalists, which the creator attributes to pressure from the FSB, with some channels linked to an alleged assassination attempt and registered to Ukrainian numbers. TASS reports that the US has reportedly not confirmed its participation in the fourth round of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, initially scheduled for May 3rd. New reporting indicates a threat of Russian strike UAVs in the Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the reported departure of Mike Waltz as Trump's National Security Advisor. Politico reports that Ukraine and the US have signed three documents related to the mineral resources agreement, with initial delays but ultimately all three signed after last-minute Ukrainian requests for changes. Russian sources continue to frame the US-Ukraine mineral deal negatively, citing the New York Times, stating it lacks security guarantees and will not have significant impact if the war continues, but also noting some hope among Kyiv supporters that it could incentivize Trump. A video is circulating purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv. ASTRA reports on a Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia, potentially for prisoner exchanges, highlighting instances of individuals who have been exchanged.

Key Operational Updates:

• Intense Ground Combat: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 93 combat engagements as of 16:00 on May 1st.
  • Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most active, with 26 Russian assault attempts (6 ongoing). Ukrainian forces repelled 20 attacks. Russian forces conducted airstrikes with guided bombs on Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad claims Russian advances in Udachne and Kotlino and increased tempo towards Pokrovsk, with attempts to bypass Ukrainian defenses.
  • Lyman Direction: 17 Russian attacks reported (7 ongoing) in the areas of Nadiya, Yampilivka, Kolodyazi, towards Hrekivka and Zelenaya Dolina. Ukrainian forces maintain defenses. ISW reports Russian advances under Lyman.
  • Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian attacks reported near Novoosynove, Hlushkivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Russian assaults reported near Chasiv Yar, Novomarkove, and towards Bila Hora. Ukrainian defenders stopped 2 attacks, with 3 ongoing. Russian military expert Andrey Marochko claims significant advances by the Russian Armed Forces in the center of Chasiv Yar.
  • Toretsk Direction: 3 combat engagements reported near Shcherbynivka, Druzhba, and towards Dyliivka. Claims of Russian advances in Toretsk. ISW reports Ukrainian forces have advanced near Toretsk. ISW also reports Russian advances on the Toretsk direction.
  • Novopavlivka Direction: 6 Russian attacks reported near Pryvilne and Vilne Pole (2 ongoing). Russian airstrikes on Novopil, Rozivka, Svyatopetrivka, and Zelene.
  • Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia Front): Heavy fighting continues. Ukrainian forces stopped 4 Russian attacks near Lobkove, Kamyanske, and Stepove. Russian airstrikes on Novodanylivka, Orikhiv, and Novoandriivka. Russian airborne forces reportedly receive air support from low-flying aircraft. A Russian military blogger notes that units on the Zaporizhzhia front are still engaged in daily battles despite hearing about "peace plans" on television.
  • Southern Donetsk Direction: Ongoing intense fighting. Russian forces reportedly continue to strengthen control and repelled five counterattacks. Claims of advances towards Bohaytr, Otradne, Shevchenko, and Vilne Pole, approaching the southern outskirts of Malynivka. Artillery and drones are reportedly disrupting Ukrainian logistics and engineering work. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for assault units operating on this direction. Russian sources claim Russian forces have broken into the settlement of Bogatyr and are fighting in the southeastern part of the village. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for assault units on this direction. "Archangel Spetsnaz" shares photos and a video of a painting made for paratroopers on the front line. Two Mayors military bloggers are thanking readers for 100 FPV drones and continuing fundraising for equipment.
  • Kharkiv Direction: Ukrainian forces repelling 2 Russian attacks near Vovchansk and towards Novovasylivka. Claims of enemy plans for chemical weapon provocation and Russian fire damage on a Ukrainian combat group and vehicle on the Liptsy section. Claims of Russian advances in forest belts on the Vovchansk section. Border areas of Sumy Oblast (Myropilske, Ponomarenky, Bratenytsia, Novodmytrivka, Dmytrivka, Hirky, Bilokopytove, Novovasylivka, Mykhailivka, Sosnivka, Bila Bereza, Velyka Pysarivka) and Kharkiv Oblast (Tymofiivka) suffered artillery and mortar fire. Russian airstrikes on Rohivka, Krasnopillia, and Uhroidy in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces using barrel artillery and MLRS against Russian positions on the Vovchansk direction, destroying three enemy UAV piloting points and neutralizing nine occupiers. Reports of a drone attack on Kharkiv, with a bag of nails attached to the drone, intended to maximize civilian casualties. Ukrainian Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" is sharing photos and videos of soldiers training and preparing positions. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of a threat of Russian strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Siversk Direction: 1 combat engagement towards Verkhnokamyanske and Serebryanka.
  • Prydniprovskyi Direction: Russian airstrikes on Kherson and Tiahynka.
  • Kherson Direction: Ukrainian artillery from the 126th Territorial Defense Brigade of Odesa reportedly striking Russian forces. Russian attempts to land on Buhaz and Kozulyskyi islands opposite Kherson to potentially cross the Dnipro have been repelled. Russian sources claim Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, during a fair, resulting in alleged civilian casualties (around 7 killed, over 20 injured) and a second wave of drones targeting emergency responders. A map shows a concentration of Russian military units south and east of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region.
  • Berkhivka Area: Ukrainian forces from the 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade's RUBAC "Katenyata" unit claim to have destroyed a Russian 2S4 "Tyulpan" self-propelled mortar on the outskirts of Berkhivka.
• Kursk Direction: 21 combat engagements reported (5 ongoing). 13 Russian airstrikes (18 guided bombs) and 116 artillery shellings (4 from MLRS). ISW reports Ukrainian forces have advanced in Kursk Oblast. Confirmed involvement of North Korean troops. Reports of civilian casualties in Rylsk from alleged Ukrainian UAV strike. Russian sources report on the evacuation of civilians from the Sudzhansky border area during fighting for Gornal and shelling of Guev. Russian military bloggers are sharing claimed unique archival footage of the evacuation of civilians from the Sudzhansky border area during fighting for Gornal and shelling of Guev.
• Russian Aerial Activity and Impact: Continued widespread Russian aerial bombardment with guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, and reports of tactical aviation activity with threat of aerial weapons on southern, southeastern, eastern, and northeastern directions, including guided aerial bombs towards Kherson. Civilian areas continue to be impacted. Reports of a drone attack on Kharkiv with a bag of nails attached to the drone. Persistent drone and ballistic missile threats were reported targeting Odesa Oblast, with confirmed fatalities and injuries from previous attacks. Russian sources are sharing claimed videos of the work of "Krasnopol" guided artillery shells targeting dugouts and shelters in buildings on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of a threat of Russian strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Ukrainian Claims of Gains: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports preventing critical losses and breakthroughs in April, and regaining a total of 115 positions during the month through active defense tactics.
• Naval Situation: Russian missile carriers with "Kalibr" missiles remain in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea. A Russian source highlights the integration of the Russian "Pantsir-ME" naval anti-aircraft system into a new North Korean destroyer, emphasizing the technological advancement for the North Korean navy.
• Diplomatic and Political Developments:
  • The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated Russia will never allow Ukraine to return to its 1991 borders, linking Ukrainian claims to an alleged "man-eating instinct to exterminate everything Russian."
  • US Vice President J.D. Vance stated the US aims to bridge the positions of Ukraine and Russia in the next 100 days and that the US is moving at full speed to implement the resource deal with Ukraine, viewing it as a way for Kyiv to pay for aid received. A Trump advisor echoed this, stating the deal benefits US taxpayers and Ukraine and that negotiation with Russia is progressing. Ukrainian sources quote Vance stating peace negotiations will continue for the next 100 days. White House states the US will ensure a free, peaceful, and sovereign future for Ukraine but does not specify borders. Russian sources claim the US-Ukraine resource deal is a form of neocolonial exploitation, lacks security guarantees for Ukraine, and that its terms override Ukrainian law, viewing it more as a symbolic PR move than a practical agreement. The New York Times reports the mineral deal does not include US security guarantees for Ukraine and is unlikely to matter if fighting continues. A Russian military blogger notes that, according to Duma deputies, the US-Ukraine "resource agreement" is essentially a form of neocolonial robbery where Ukraine has given up the right to regulate its subsoil use and investment, and the agreement overrides Ukrainian law, with the ability to cancel it only with the consent of both parties. TASS reports that Vance stated the US intends to organize direct negotiations on Ukraine in the next 100 days. Politico reports that Ukraine and the US have signed three documents related to the mineral resources agreement, with initial delays but ultimately all three signed after last-minute Ukrainian requests for changes. Russian sources continue to frame the US-Ukraine mineral deal negatively, citing the New York Times, stating it lacks security guarantees and will not have significant impact if the war continues, but also noting some hope among Kyiv supporters that it could incentivize Trump.
  • Ukraine imposed sanctions on nine journalists and figures, including Oleksii Arestovych, Oleksii Azarov, Oleksii Likhachev (head of Rosatom), and several Russian metallurgical plants, energy enterprises, and Novatek. President Zelenskyy has announced new sanctions packages against 36 companies and 5 individuals supporting Russian military production (titanium suppliers, metallurgy, energy, machine building), 106 entities supporting the occupation of Crimea and Donbas and supplying the Russian army, and 9 individuals (7 Ukrainian citizens) involved in pro-Russian propaganda and information operations harmful to Ukraine.
  • Serbian President Vucic stated he will attend the May 9th Victory Day commemoration in Moscow despite criticism. Colonelcassad notes that Vucic's decision to attend the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow despite threats from Brussels is being met with continued criticism and threats from the EU.
  • TASS reports that the US has reportedly not confirmed its participation in the fourth round of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, initially scheduled for May 3rd.
  • TASS reports that Mike Waltz is expected to leave his position as National Security Advisor to Trump, as reported by CBS. RBC-Ukraine also reports on Waltz's expected departure. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the reported departure of Mike Waltz as Trump's National Security Advisor.
• Internal Russian Issues: Reuters reports Russia significantly revised its 2025 budget deficit forecast upwards to 1.7% of GDP from 0.5%, citing lower expected energy revenues and increased defense spending (6.3% of GDP, highest since the Cold War). Russia views international trade wars initiated by the US as a key economic risk. Russian sources report arrests of police officers and taxi drivers at Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow for allegedly scamming military personnel. Sever.Realii reports on cases of individuals with criminal histories joining PMC Wagner and committing further crimes upon return, highlighting potential issues with reintegration. Reports of politically motivated sentences in Russia, including against Ukrainian servicemen. Reports of discontent among cadets at a Russian law institute regarding soldiers in the "special military operation," labeling them negatively. A criminal case was initiated in Primorye against a woman who wrote a Z symbol on a war memorial. Reports of fake drone jamming systems being supplied to the Russian military through fraudulent contracts, highlighting potential corruption and procurement issues. Reports of a Russian military blogger mourning the death of a soldier in Ukraine. Reports of the detention of artist Pavel Krisevich in Ryazan Oblast on questionable grounds after his release from prison. ASTRA reports that Telegram has removed five channels associated with Chuvash nationalists, which the creator attributes to pressure from the FSB. Some of these channels were linked to an alleged assassination attempt on a former military commissar and were reportedly registered to Ukrainian numbers. A Russian military blogger is sharing a video claiming a woman in Ukraine defended her husband from TCC (Territorial Recruitment Centers) personnel by hitting one with a shovel, and then was allegedly tied up and put in a well by the TCC, with the video being circulated online. This is a claim from a Russian source and requires verification. ASTRA reports on a Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia, potentially for prisoner exchanges, highlighting instances of individuals who have been exchanged.
• Support and Rehabilitation: Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War met with families of soldiers from the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade to discuss POWs and missing personnel. In Kryvyi Rih, a large program for reconstructing hospitals and creating rehabilitation centers for military personnel is underway, with 8 centers created and 256 beds functioning, having assisted ~4,000 servicemen. Two rehabilitation centers are under repair for modernization. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for rehabilitation of soldiers and support for their families, including specific cases of injured personnel. Two Mayors military bloggers are thanking readers for providing 100 FPV drones and are continuing fundraising efforts for various equipment for assault units on the Southern Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad is fundraising for various equipment, including body armor, Starlinks, radios, and vehicles, for assault units on the Southern Donetsk direction. "Archangel Spetsnaz" shares photos and a video of a painting made for paratroopers on the front line. Ukrainian Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" is sharing photos and videos of soldiers training and preparing positions. Butusov Plus shares photos of a deceased individual, identified as "Nikita Khrushchev" with the call sign "Hrustik," and provides information about a farewell ceremony, linking it to losses in Ukraine. ASTRA reports on a Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia, potentially for prisoner exchanges, highlighting instances of individuals who have been exchanged.
• Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian military bloggers are promoting content about Colombian mercenaries in Ukraine, showcasing a captured "methodical guide" and reporting an alleged death. Ramzan Kadyrov reports the departure of Chechen volunteers to the "special military operation" zone. Russian military bloggers are sharing reports on claimed Russian advances and effectiveness of their forces, including drone and artillery work. Ukrainian military bloggers are sharing videos highlighting claimed Russian losses and fundraising for equipment. Russian military bloggers continue to disseminate claims about NATO exercises practicing scenarios against Russia. Russian state media and military bloggers are promoting specific narratives, including the “liberation” of Kursk territory and the resource deal with the US. Russian sources are disseminating claims of Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, with alleged civilian casualties, framing it as a deliberate targeting of civilians. Russian sources continue to frame the US-Ukraine resource deal negatively as a predatory agreement. Russian military bloggers are sharing "military hip-hop" related to the Kursk fighting. Russian sources are fundraising for military units and specific injured soldiers. Ukrainian sources are promoting the US-Ukraine investment agreement as a step towards reconstruction and highlighting the training of Ukrainian military public relations officers in Estonia according to NATO standards. Operational ZSU highlights the White House statement about ensuring a free, peaceful, and sovereign future for Ukraine, noting the lack of clarification on borders. STERNENKO contrasts the claimed success of Ukrainian special services in eliminating a Russian general near Moscow with the Russian claimed attempt to wound a Ukrainian volunteer in Kyiv, framing it as a difference in effectiveness. Russian state media (TASS) is highlighting a "Immortal Regiment" event and the opening of a patriotic mural at the Russian Embassy in Rome, and the Serbian President's decision to attend the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow despite criticism from the EU. ASTRA reports on the removal of Telegram channels associated with Chuvash nationalists, which the creator attributes to FSB pressure, with some channels linked to an alleged assassination attempt and registered to Ukrainian numbers. A Russian military blogger is sharing a video claiming a woman in Ukraine defended her husband from TCC personnel and was then allegedly tied up and put in a well by the TCC, with the video being circulated online. Colonelcassad shares a video showing claimed work of Russian 72nd brigade in February-March 2025, including destruction of a Polish "Krab" self-propelled howitzer and a US "Stryker" armored personnel carrier. Russian sources continue to frame the US-Ukraine mineral deal negatively, citing the New York Times, stating it lacks security guarantees and will not have significant impact if the war continues, but also noting some hope among Kyiv supporters that it could incentivize Trump. A video is circulating purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv.
• Other Incidents: Reports of an explosion near a port in Germany with multiple casualties and an incident in Japan where a vehicle entered a group of schoolchildren with multiple injuries. Tensions between India and Pakistan are escalating. Negotiations between the US and Iran planned for May 3rd have been postponed. TASS reports that Mike Waltz is expected to leave his position as National Security Advisor to Trump, as reported by CBS. RBC-Ukraine also reports on Waltz's expected departure. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the reported departure of Mike Waltz as Trump's National Security Advisor. A video is circulating purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Pokrovsk Direction: Extremely high intensity combat. 26 Russian assaults (6 ongoing). Russian airstrikes with guided bombs on Pokrovsk. Claims of Russian advances in Udachne and Kotlino.
• Lyman Direction: High intensity combat. 17 Russian attacks reported (7 ongoing). ISW reports Russian advances under Lyman.
• Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian attacks reported.
• Kramatorsk Direction: Russian assaults near Chasiv Yar and other areas. Russian military expert claims significant advances in the center of Chasiv Yar.
• Toretsk Direction: 3 combat engagements reported. Claims of Russian advances in Toretsk. ISW reports Ukrainian forces have advanced near Toretsk. ISW also reports Russian advances on the Toretsk direction.
• Novopavlivka Direction: 6 Russian attacks reported (2 ongoing). Russian airstrikes.
• Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia Front): Heavy fighting. 4 Russian attacks stopped. Russian airstrikes. Russian airborne forces receiving air support. Russian military blogger reports daily battles ongoing.
• Southern Donetsk Direction: Ongoing intense fighting. Claims of Russian advances and disruption of Ukrainian logistics. Russian military bloggers fundraising for units on this direction. Russian sources claim Russian forces have broken into the settlement of Bogatyr and are fighting in the southeastern part of the village. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for assault units on this direction.
• Kharkiv Direction: Ukrainian forces repelling 2 Russian attacks near Vovchansk. Russian artillery and mortar fire on border areas. Russian airstrikes on Sumy Oblast. Claims of enemy chemical weapon provocation plans. Claims of Russian fire damage and advances in forest belts. Ukrainian forces using artillery and MLRS on Vovchansk direction, destroying three enemy UAV piloting points and neutralizing nine occupiers. Reports of a drone attack on Kharkiv with a bag of nails attached. Ukrainian Operational-Tactical Group "Kharkiv" is sharing photos and videos of soldiers training and preparing positions. Threat of Russian strike UAVs.
• Siversk Direction: 1 combat engagement.
• Prydniprovskyi Direction: Russian airstrikes on Kherson and Tiahynka.
• Kherson Direction: Ukrainian artillery active. Russian attempts to land on islands near Kherson repelled. Russian sources claim Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky with alleged civilian casualties. A map shows Russian military units south and east of the Dnieper River in this region.
• Kursk Direction: High combat activity. 21 combat engagements (5 ongoing). Russian airstrikes and artillery. Confirmed involvement of North Korean troops. Reports of civilian casualties in Rylsk from alleged Ukrainian UAV strike. ISW reports Ukrainian forces have advanced in Kursk Oblast. Russian sources report on the evacuation of civilians from Sudzhansky border area during fighting for Gornal and shelling of Guev. Russian military bloggers are sharing claimed unique archival footage of the evacuation of civilians from the Sudzhansky border area.
• Sumy Oblast: Russian artillery and mortar fire on border areas. Russian airstrikes. Claims of Ukrainian troop transfers to the area. Russian sources report alleged killing of three Ukrainian servicemen near Veselivka.
• Vladimir Oblast (Murom): Claimed Ukrainian drone attack on a defense plant.
• Russia (Moscow, Sheremetyevo Airport): Internal security incident involving scamming military personnel.
• Russia (Barnaul): Reports of discontent among law institute cadets regarding military personnel.
• Russia (Primorye): Criminal case against a woman for writing a Z symbol on a war memorial.
• Russia (Rybinsk, Yaroslavl Oblast): Claimed Ukrainian drone attack on a defense plant.
• Germany: Explosion near a port with multiple casualties.
• Japan: Vehicle incident with multiple injuries to schoolchildren.
• India-Pakistan Border: Escalating tensions.
• Kryvyi Rih: Implementation of a large-scale hospital reconstruction and military rehabilitation program.
• Estonia: Training of Ukrainian military public relations officers according to NATO standards.
• Russia (Oleshky, Kherson Oblast): Russian sources claim Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market with alleged civilian casualties.
• Russia (Ryazan Oblast): Detention of artist Pavel Krisevich.
• Russia: Reports of fraudulent contracts for drone jamming systems.
• Russia (Near Moscow): Claimed Ukrainian special services operation to eliminate a Russian general.
• Kyiv: Russian claimed attempted wounding of a Ukrainian volunteer. A video is circulating purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv.
• Rome: Russian Embassy holding "Immortal Regiment" event and opening patriotic mural.
• Russia (Chuvashia): Telegram removing channels associated with Chuvash nationalists, attributed to FSB pressure, with some channels linked to an alleged assassination attempt.
• Berkhivka Area: Ukrainian forces claiming destruction of a Russian 2S4 "Tyulpan" self-propelled mortar.
• North Korea: New destroyer "Choe Hyon" equipped with Russian "Pantsir-ME" system.
• Iran: Negotiations on nuclear program postponed.
• United States: Mike Waltz expected to leave position as National Security Advisor to Trump. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the reported departure of Mike Waltz as Trump's National Security Advisor. Signing of three documents related to the US-Ukraine mineral resources agreement.
• Ukraine: Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia, potentially for prisoner exchanges.

Potential Future Developments

• Continued high-intensity ground combat on the identified axes, with potential for localized gains by either side. The Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Toretsk directions are likely to remain focal points. The reported Russian breakthrough in Bogatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction suggests potential for further advances in that area.
• Sustained high volume of Russian aerial attacks, with potential shifts in targeting based on operational objectives and Ukrainian air defense capabilities. The alleged targeting of civilians in Oleshky with FPV drones, if confirmed, would represent a concerning development in tactics. The reported threat of strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast indicates continued Russian focus on this region.
• Further information and verification regarding claims of Russian advances and Ukrainian positions regained, particularly in Chasiv Yar and near Toretsk, and now in Bogatyr.
• Potential for increased visibility or impact of North Korean military personnel in Kursk Oblast or other areas. The emphasis on North Korean naval advancements and cooperation with Russia on defense systems is a significant development.
• Continued diplomatic discussions and potential initiatives regarding peace settlements, particularly in light of the US statements about bridging positions and the 100-day timeframe. The reported postponement of US-Iran talks could have wider geopolitical implications. The expected departure of Mike Waltz as US National Security Advisor could potentially impact US policy towards the conflict. The signing of the US-Ukraine mineral resources agreement documents, despite some initial delays and last-minute changes, signifies a tangible step in this diplomatic and economic arena, although its actual impact remains to be seen.
• Further analysis of the impact of sanctions on targeted Russian entities. The new sanctions packages announced by Ukraine will likely be monitored for their effectiveness and any potential synchronization with international sanctions.
• Monitoring of internal dissent and social issues within Russia, including those related to returning military personnel, support for the operation, and potential corruption in procurement. The reported discontent among law cadets, issues with military equipment procurement, and the detention of Pavel Krisevich could have wider implications. The reported removal of Telegram channels associated with Chuvash nationalists attributed to FSB pressure and their link to an alleged assassination attempt highlights internal security concerns within Russia. Claims of ill-treatment of Ukrainian citizens by TCC require independent verification.
• Progression of rehabilitation and support programs for military personnel in Ukraine and Russia.
• Continued fundraising efforts by both sides to address logistical needs.
• Monitoring of international incidents and geopolitical tensions for potential wider implications, including escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. The Serbian President's decision to attend Victory Day in Moscow and the EU reaction will be closely watched.
• Assessment of the operational impact of claimed Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian defense plants and the claimed destruction of Russian military equipment, such as the "Tyulpan" and Western-supplied systems.
• Any observable changes in the political and economic situation in Russia based on revised budget forecasts.
• Further information and verification regarding the claimed FPV drone attack on Oleshky, including independent confirmation of casualties and the nature of the target. This is crucial for ethical and strategic assessment.
• Monitoring of propaganda efforts surrounding the US-Ukraine resource deal and its actual implementation and impact. The continued negative framing by Russian sources despite the signing of documents highlights the ongoing information war.
• Assessment of the implications of internal security actions in Russia, such as the detention of individuals like Pavel Krisevich, on the domestic environment. Any follow-up on the removal of Telegram channels associated with Chuvash nationalists and their link to alleged FSB pressure and an assassination attempt.
• Evaluation of the impact of fraudulent military procurement on the capabilities of Russian forces.
• Further details regarding the claimed destruction of the Russian 2S4 "Tyulpan" in the Berkhivka area and its operational impact.
• Any follow-up on the claimed elimination of a Russian general near Moscow and the claimed attempted attack on a Ukrainian volunteer in Kyiv. The circulating video of the Sternenko assassination attempt will likely be analyzed by both sides.
• Further analysis of the implications of the Russian "Pantsir-ME" system being integrated into the North Korean navy and any potential for further military-technical cooperation between Russia and North Korea impacting the conflict in Ukraine.
• Any developments related to the Ukrainian state project on convicted collaborators and potential future prisoner exchanges.

Potential Indicators

• Independent confirmation or refutation of claimed territorial changes and advances on various fronts, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and now Bogatyr directions.
• Observable changes in the intensity, targeting, or type of Russian aerial attacks, including guided aerial bombs and drones, particularly in Kharkiv Oblast where a new threat is reported. Any patterns in the use of FPV drones for alleged civilian targeting would be a significant indicator.
• Reports or evidence of North Korean military personnel operating in new areas or engaging in specific types of combat. Any further information regarding Russian-North Korean military-technical cooperation and its impact on the conflict.
• Official statements or actions from the US, Ukraine, and Russia regarding the progress or status of peace negotiations, particularly within the stated 100-day timeframe. Any statements or actions related to the reported postponement of US-Iran talks. Any impact of Mike Waltz's expected departure on US policy. Observable effects of the signed US-Ukraine mineral resources agreement documents.
• Observable impacts on the operations or financial status of sanctioned Russian entities. Any further sanctions imposed by Ukraine or its partners.
• Further reports or incidents indicating internal dissent or social challenges within Russia related to the military operation or returning personnel, including any follow-up on the Barnaul cadets incident, the fraudulent procurement issues, and the detention of Pavel Krisevich. Any independent verification of claimed ill-treatment by TCC in Ukraine.
• Visible progress or expansion of rehabilitation and support infrastructure for military personnel in Ukraine and Russia.
• Changes in the volume or success of fundraising efforts for military units or support organizations on both sides.
• Further escalation or de-escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan. Any observed impact of the Serbian President's visit to Moscow on EU-Serbia relations.
• Independent confirmation or detailed assessment of the damage to Russian defense plants from claimed Ukrainian drone attacks and their impact on production.
• Observable changes in Russian economic indicators or government policies in response to revised budget forecasts.
• Independent verification of the claimed FPV drone attack on Oleshky, including confirmation of casualties and the nature of the target, adhering to ethical standards regarding civilian impact.
• Analysis of the public and official narratives surrounding the US-Ukraine resource deal and any concrete evidence of its implementation or impact.
• Further actions or statements related to the detention of individuals like Pavel Krisevich and their potential impact on the internal political climate in Russia. Any follow-up on the removal of Telegram channels associated with Chuvash nationalists and their link to alleged FSB pressure and an assassination attempt.
• Further reporting or investigations into fraudulent military procurement and its impact on the availability and effectiveness of Russian military equipment.
• Independent confirmation of the destruction of the Russian 2S4 "Tyulpan" in the Berkhivka area.
• Any further information or evidence regarding the claimed elimination of a Russian general near Moscow and the claimed attempted attack on a Ukrainian volunteer in Kyiv, and analysis of the circulating video.
• Any observable impact of the new North Korean destroyer "Choe Hyon" and its Russian "Pantsir-ME" system on naval operations or the balance of power in the region.
• Any observable movement or exchange of the convicted collaborators detailed in the Ukrainian state project.