Sitrep 2025-04-28 21:19:45

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 28, 2025, 21:19 UTC)

Executive Summary

The intense and widespread nature of combat persists across multiple axes, with Russian sources continuing to claim tactical gains and advances, particularly on the Siversk direction with claims of a powerful breakthrough and ongoing assault on Hryhorivka after the claimed liberation of Bilohorivka. The Pokrovsk direction remains an area of exceptionally high intensity, as confirmed by the Ukrainian General Staff's report of a total of 133 combat engagements across the entire front throughout the day. The Kursk direction continues to be highly active with 14 combat engagements reported, and Russian sources claim significant destruction of Ukrainian UAVs in this region (40 destroyed). The Lyman, Toretsk, Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovsk directions are also experiencing ongoing combat activity.

Ukrainian forces report ongoing defensive operations and inflicting losses on Russian personnel and equipment across various fronts, highlighting successful actions by specific brigades in the Kursk direction and effective drone strikes. The heads of Ukraine's SBU and SZR have reported successful operations against Russian agent networks and high-ranking Russian military personnel, respectively, indicating continued efforts to degrade Russian capabilities beyond the immediate frontline. Ukraine is actively managing the consequences of Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure, with ongoing restoration efforts in Cherkasy. Diplomatic efforts remain a key focus, with President Zelenskyy rejecting Russia's proposed ceasefire timing and engaging in discussions with international partners on peace negotiations and strengthening air defense, including a reported stronger economic partnership agreement with the US. Ukraine has also offered assistance to Spain, France, and Portugal in dealing with their major blackout.

Significant incidents include the reported fire near Novorossiysk, which Ukrainian sources are linking to a Neptune missile threat and attributing to Ukrainian actions, while official Russian reports cite a fire with an ongoing investigation. Ukrainian UAV threats are reported in several Russian regions, including Lipetsk, Kursk, Oryol, Crimea, and Belgorod, and over the Black Sea, with Russia claiming significant numbers of interceptions (51 UAVs claimed destroyed in 2.5 hours). New groups of attack UAVs are reported moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, specifically the Vylkove area, requiring ongoing air defense response. Two Ukrainian drones are reported to be approaching Kramatorsk, indicating a continued threat to this city. Threats of attack UAVs have been extended to Kharkiv and Kyiv Oblasts.

Politically, President Zelenskyy's interactions with international leaders and his stance on a ceasefire are central. Russian state media is promoting Putin's declared Victory Day ceasefire (May 8-11) and his thanks to North Korean units for their contribution in Kursk Oblast, while also highlighting internal Russian events and commenting on alleged discriminatory calls in Ukraine. Russian military bloggers continue to share combat footage and information operations. The large-scale blackout in Spain and Portugal remains a notable international event, with reports of ongoing restoration efforts and Ukraine offering assistance. Tensions between India and Pakistan are also noted. Internal Russian issues, including a criminal case regarding alleged theft in the Ministry of Defense and domestic police meetings, are reported. DeepState highlights the 78th anniversary of Operation Vistula and draws parallels to current Russian actions.

Strategic and Tactical Overview

Ukrainian Actions and Capabilities:

Defense and Counter-Actions: Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in defensive operations against intense Russian assaults across numerous axes (Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Siversk, Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Prydniprovsk, Kursk). They report repelling attacks and inflicting significant losses on Russian forces, as indicated by the reported neutralization of 124 occupiers on the Pokrovsk direction and the highlighting of specific brigades' effectiveness in the Kursk operational zone. The high number of reported combat engagements (133) underscores the scale and intensity of the defensive effort. Ukrainian units are utilizing FPV drones for effective strikes against Russian personnel and equipment. A video highlights a successful counter-logistics drone strike.
Intelligence and Security Operations: Ukraine's SBU and SZR heads have reported successful actions against Russian agent networks and saboteurs in Ukraine, and the liquidation of high-ranking Russian military personnel, respectively. This demonstrates ongoing efforts to disrupt Russian operations and target leadership within Ukraine and potentially abroad.
Air Defense and Counter-Drone Operations: The Ukrainian Air Force is actively monitoring for and issuing warnings regarding Russian tactical aviation and attack UAV activity in multiple regions, including Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts. KABs are reported on Donetsk Oblast. The reporting of new groups of attack UAVs moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast and the presence of drones approaching Kramatorsk indicate ongoing and localized drone threats requiring continuous air defense readiness.
Information Operations and Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy's public rejection of Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire, his call for a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire, and his focus on international peace negotiations serve as key diplomatic and information operations to frame the conflict and advocate for Ukraine's terms. The reported stronger economic partnership agreement with the US is presented as a positive development in bilateral relations. Ukraine's offer of energy assistance to European nations amidst their blackout is a strategic diplomatic gesture aimed at solidarity and potentially enhancing Ukraine's role in European energy security. Ukrainian sources are actively linking the fire near Novorossiysk to a Neptune missile threat and portraying it as a successful counter-strike. Highlighting the historical context of Operation Vistula serves to reinforce national identity and draw parallels to current threats.
Response to Infrastructure Damage: Emergency brigades are actively working to restore gas supply in Cherkasy following a Russian Shahed attack, demonstrating efforts to address the impact on civilian infrastructure.
Personnel: Ukrainian forces are engaged across numerous fronts. Specific units are highlighted for their actions in the Kursk direction. Efforts to address internal discipline and corruption are evidenced by the detention of a serviceman for attempted bribery. Ukrainian intelligence services are actively targeting Russian personnel, including high-ranking officers.
Logistics: Ukrainian drone operations are targeting Russian logistical assets, as demonstrated by the video showing the destruction of a generator, Starlinks, and a vehicle.
Sanctions: Ukraine is preparing further sanction steps, indicating a continued strategy of using economic pressure against Russia.

Russian Actions and Claims:

Persistent Offensive Operations and Claimed Gains: Russia continues intense ground assaults on multiple axes, reporting numerous attack actions and ongoing engagements. They are claiming significant advances, particularly on the Siversk direction, with claims of a powerful breakthrough at Hryhorivka after the claimed liberation of Bilohorivka, and also claiming the liberation of Kamenka. The high number of reported combat engagements by the Ukrainian General Staff (133) confirms the overall intensity of Russian offensive pressure.
Continued Aerial Bombardment: Russia continues to employ tactical aviation for strikes and utilize a large number of guided aerial bombs (KABs) and attack drones. KAB launches are reported on Donetsk Oblast. New threats of UAV attacks are declared in several Russian regions, including Lipetsk Oblast, with Russia claiming to have destroyed a significant number of Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory (51 claimed in 2.5 hours). Tactical aviation activity and the threat of guided aerial weapons are noted on the southern and eastern directions.
Incident near Novorossiysk: The head of Novorossiysk reports a fire near the village of Kirillovka, involving a diesel fuel tank and vehicles, with no casualties reported and an ongoing investigation. Russian sources are generally adhering to this official narrative while Ukrainian sources are promoting a link to military action.
Information Operations and Political Signaling: Russian sources are actively promoting narratives of territorial gains and military successes, highlighting specific unit actions and intensity of fighting. They are utilizing state media and military bloggers to disseminate their version of events. The Russian Ministry of Defense's top news summary serves as a central platform for this, highlighting Putin's declared ceasefire, thanking North Korean units, and showcasing various military capabilities. Russian sources are also commenting on alleged discriminatory calls against Russian language use in Ukraine, framing it within the context of "denazification." They are also using the large-scale blackout in Spain and Portugal to contrast with Russia's energy stability. Russian military bloggers are engaged in information operations, including showcasing military developments and claiming the capture of Western equipment.
Internal Security and Corruption: A criminal case has been initiated against a former Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's Department of Property of Special Projects for alleged theft. Domestic police meetings are reported. Russia is claiming significant interceptions of Ukrainian UAVs over its territory, highlighting its air defense capabilities.
International Relations: Russian state media highlights upcoming meetings between Putin and Lukashenko. They are also noting tensions between India and Pakistan. DeepState reports on Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Russia. Russia is also commenting on internal issues within European countries like the blackout in Spain and Portugal.
Capabilities and Logistics: The Russian Ministry of Defense is showcasing various military equipment and personnel in its daily summary. Russian military bloggers are also highlighting military developments and fundraising efforts for specific units. Russia is claiming significant interceptions of Ukrainian UAVs, indicating their air defense capabilities.
Casualties and Losses: Ukraine reports inflicting significant losses on the Pokrovsk direction and claims the liquidation of high-ranking Russian military personnel. Russia is claiming high Ukrainian casualties in the Kursk region and the capture of Western equipment (Bradley IFV). Russia also claims to have destroyed a significant number of Ukrainian UAVs over its territory.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Axis: Continued exceptionally intense ground combat. Ukrainian General Staff reports 52 assault actions with 15 ongoing. Ukrainian forces report neutralizing 124 occupiers and destroying equipment. Russian sources claim successful combat work.
Lyman Direction: Intense combat with 16 Russian attacks and 7 ongoing engagements reported by Russia.
Toretsk Direction: 13 attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses with 4 ongoing combat engagements reported by Russia.
Siversk Direction: 6 attacks with 3 ongoing combat engagements reported by Russia. Russian sources claim a powerful breakthrough and ongoing assault on Hryhorivka after the liberation of Bilohorivka.
Kupyansk Direction: 6 attempts to displace Ukrainian units with 2 ongoing combat engagements reported by Russia.
Kramatorsk Direction: 7 attempts to advance with 2 ongoing combat engagements reported by Russia. Two Ukrainian drones are reported to be approaching Kramatorsk. Threat of attack UAVs extended to this area.
Novopavlivka Direction: 21 attacks with no ongoing combat engagements reported by Russia.
Orikhiv Direction: 4 combat engagements with no ongoing combat engagements reported by Russia. Fundraising is being conducted for the 7th Guards Airborne Assault Division on this front.
Prydniprovsk Direction: 5 combat engagements with no ongoing combat engagements reported by Russia.
Kursk Operational Zone: High intensity of fighting with 14 combat engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. Significant artillery fire and aerial strikes. Ukrainian forces highlight successful actions of specific brigades. Russia claims significant destruction of Ukrainian UAVs (40 claimed destroyed) and the capture of a Bradley IFV. Russia also claims the defeat of Ukrainian formations and thanks North Korean units for their contribution.
Novorossiysk (Russia): Reported fire at a cargo vehicle parking area and diesel fuel tank near Kirillovka. Official Russian reports attribute it to a fire with an ongoing investigation. Ukrainian sources link it to a prior Neptune missile threat and report explosions.
Sumy Oblast: Subject to Russian KAB strikes and potential attack UAV use (air strike alert issued).
Kharkiv Oblast: Subject to Russian KAB strikes. Threat of attack UAVs extended to this area.
Donetsk Oblast: Subject to Russian KAB strikes.
Cherkasy Oblast: Ongoing work to restore gas supply following a reported Shahed attack.
Chernihiv Oblast: Potential threat of attack UAVs (air strike alert issued).
Odesa Oblast: Potential threat of attack UAVs (air strike alert issued). New groups of attack UAVs are reported moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, specifically the Vylkove area, with one remaining drone near Vylkove.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Potential threat of attack UAVs (air strike alert issued for the entire oblast).
India-Pakistan Border: Heightened tensions with statements from Pakistan's Minister of Defense regarding the importance of the coming days, and an Indian MP claiming Pakistan's potential division. Pakistan's Minister of Defense clarified his statements were not a prediction of war.
Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Threat of freezing temperatures is predicted, potentially impacting agriculture. Russia claims Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over this region.
Lipetsk Oblast (Russia): Threat of UAV attacks declared in Yelets and Yelets district. Threat of attack UAVs extended to Lipetsk city and district. Russia claims Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over this region (5 claimed destroyed).
Oryol Oblast (Russia): Russia claims Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over this region (5 claimed destroyed).
Crimea: Russia claims Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over this region (2 claimed destroyed). Russian military bloggers share video from the coast of Crimea.
Black Sea: New groups of attack UAVs are reported moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. Russia claims Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over the Black Sea (3 claimed destroyed).
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Russia claims Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over this region (1 claimed destroyed).
Spain and Portugal: Large-scale blackout impacting electricity, transport, and communication networks. Restoration efforts are ongoing. Reports of restoration in Madrid and Portugal. Ukraine has offered assistance.
Kyiv Oblast: Threat of attack UAVs extended to this area.
Kamenka (Claimed): Colonelcassad shares video claiming the liberation of this settlement by Russian forces, detailing the combat actions.
Balashikha (Russia): Colonelcassad shares photos and video from an "Innovation Day of the Airborne Forces" exhibition held here.
Madrid (Spain): TASS reports restoration of electricity in several districts.
Portugal: TASS and РБК-Україна report on power restoration.

Potential Future Developments

Independent verification of claimed territorial changes and breakthroughs on all reported axes of Russian assault, particularly the claimed liberation of Kamenka and the alleged breakthrough on the Siversk direction towards Hryhorivka.
Further details and investigation into the incident near Novorossiysk, including the official cause of the fire and any potential connection to military activity or prior threat warnings, and the impact on Russian logistics.
Continued Russian air strikes using KABs and attack UAVs on front-line and border regions, and potential threats to new areas like Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Lipetsk Oblasts. Continued movement of attack UAVs towards Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea. Potential for further Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, including observed approaches to Kramatorsk and claimed interceptions over various regions.
The complete restoration of gas supply in Cherkasy.
Further diplomatic exchanges and outcomes following President Zelenskyy's rejection of the proposed ceasefire timing and planned international meetings. Potential impact of the reported concerns about US withdrawal from negotiations and conflicting reports about Trump's stance.
Any observable impact of Ukraine's offer of energy assistance to European nations, including the ongoing situation with the blackout in Spain and Portugal.
The trajectory of tensions between India and Pakistan and any potential wider geopolitical implications.
Further reports or investigations into the corruption case within the Russian Ministry of Defense and the bribery case within the Ukrainian military.
Any observable impact of the presence and activities of Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Russia.
Potential shifts in Ukrainian and Russian rhetoric or actions regarding a ceasefire following President Zelenskyy's statement and Putin's declared Victory Day ceasefire.
Further details regarding the reported power outages and states of emergency in Spain, France, and Portugal and any response to Ukraine's offer of assistance. Continued progress in power restoration in these countries.
Outcomes of the planned meeting between Putin and Lukashenko and any implications from the VDV Innovation Day exhibition.
Further details regarding the claimed liquidation of high-ranking Russian military personnel by Ukrainian intelligence.
Impact of the strengthened economic partnership agreement between Ukraine and the United States.
Further information regarding the captured individual from Odesa who fought for Russia.
Any observable impact of the threatened freezing temperatures on agriculture in Bryansk Oblast.
Any further reports or actions related to alleged discrimination against Russian language use in Ukraine.
Further details regarding the detention of alleged Russian saboteurs in Dnipro.

Potential Indicators

Independent confirmation or refutation of claimed Russian advances on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Siversk (particularly Hryhorivka), Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Prydniprovsk, and Kursk directions, and the claimed liberation of Kamenka.
Official statements from either side regarding the incident near Novorossiysk and its cause, or any evidence of a missile strike.
Changes in the frequency or targets of Russian KAB and attack UAV strikes, including the sustained movement of drones towards Odesa Oblast, any attacks in Kharkiv, Kyiv, or Lipetsk Oblasts, or observed impact of Ukrainian drone attacks in Russian regions, and confirmation of claimed interceptions. Observation of drones approaching Kramatorsk.
Progress in the restoration of gas supply in Cherkasy.
Public statements or outcomes following diplomatic engagements related to the conflict, particularly concerning ceasefire proposals and planned international meetings. Any statements or actions regarding potential US withdrawal from negotiations.
Any observable actions or progress related to Ukraine's offer of energy assistance to European nations, including the resolution of the blackout in Spain and Portugal. Continued reporting on power restoration efforts.
Changes in military posture or rhetoric between India and Pakistan.
Further details or official outcomes of the investigation into the corruption case in Russia and the bribery case in Ukraine.
Any observable impact of the presence and activities of Belarusian mercenaries on the operational situation or Russian information campaigns.
Any shifts in official positions on a ceasefire from Ukraine or Russia, or any observable changes in the intensity of combat following President Zelenskyy's statement and Putin's declared ceasefire.
Further reports or official statements regarding the power outages in Spain, France, and Portugal and any response to Ukraine's offer of assistance.
Outcomes or statements following the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko. Any observed implementation or deployment of technologies showcased at the VDV Innovation Day.
Independent verification of claimed Ukrainian successes against Russian personnel and equipment on the Pokrovsk direction and the effectiveness of specific Ukrainian units in the Kursk direction, and claimed liquidation of high-ranking Russian military personnel.
Observation of Russian military blogger activity, including fundraising appeals, for indicators of logistical needs. Continued fundraising efforts by Two Majors for the 7th Guards Airborne Assault Division.
Details regarding the implementation and impact of the strengthened economic partnership agreement between Ukraine and the United States.
Further information regarding the captured individual from Odesa.
Reports on the impact of freezing temperatures on agriculture in Bryansk Oblast.
Any official investigations or actions taken regarding alleged discrimination against Russian language use in Ukraine.
Official confirmation and details regarding the detention of alleged Russian saboteurs in Dnipro.
Any observed impact or continuation of the large-scale blackout in Spain and Portugal and the restoration efforts.

Updated Situation

The conflict remains highly dynamic and intense, with widespread ground combat reported by the Ukrainian General Staff across numerous axes, including Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Siversk, Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Prydniprovsk, and Kursk. Russia is claiming numerous assault actions and ongoing engagements across these fronts, and the Kursk direction is experiencing significant artillery and aerial bombardment. Russia also claims the liberation of Kamenka and a powerful breakthrough on the Siversk direction towards Hryhorivka. Ukraine is actively defending and reports inflicting substantial losses on the Pokrovsk direction and highlights the effectiveness of specific units in the Kursk operational zone. Ukraine is also showcasing successful drone strikes against Russian personnel and logistics. Ukraine's intelligence and security services report successful actions against Russian agent networks and saboteurs, and the liquidation of high-ranking Russian military personnel. A significant incident is the reported fire at a cargo vehicle parking area and diesel fuel tank near Novorossiysk, which Ukrainian sources are linking to a prior Neptune missile threat and portraying as a consequence of Russian actions, while official Russian reports attribute it to a fire with an ongoing investigation. Russia continues extensive KAB and attack UAV strikes on front-line and border oblasts, with new drone activity reported towards Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea (with one remaining drone near Vylkove), and UAV threats declared in Lipetsk, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts. Russia also claims to have destroyed 51 Ukrainian UAVs over various Russian regions, including 40 over Kursk Oblast and 5 over Oryol Oblast. Two Ukrainian drones are reported approaching Kramatorsk. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy explicitly rejecting Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire and calling for an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, and reporting a stronger economic partnership with the US. Concerns about potential US withdrawal from negotiations and conflicting reports about Trump's stance are circulating. Ukraine is also offering energy assistance to European nations amidst a large-scale blackout in Spain and Portugal, with reports of ongoing restoration efforts in these countries. Efforts to restore gas supply in Cherkasy are ongoing following a Russian attack. Internal issues within both Ukraine (bribery case, preparing sanctions, alleged saboteur detention) and Russia (corruption case, VDV Innovation Day, fundraising, reported domestic police meeting, domestic economic reports, claimed UAV interceptions) are reported. Tensions between India and Pakistan remain a notable international concern with conflicting statements on the imminence of war and claims of potential division. DeepState reports on the presence and casualties of Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Russia and highlights the historical context of Operation Vistula and potential future Russian expansionist threats. Russian state media highlights upcoming meetings between Putin and Lukashenko and comments on alleged discrimination against Russian language use in Ukraine. Reports of a captured individual from Odesa who fought for Russia are circulating. Threatened freezing temperatures are predicted in Bryansk Oblast. Russian military bloggers are actively engaged in information operations and fundraising. The Russian Ministry of Defense has summarized key events, including a ceasefire order, thanking North Korean troops, and highlighting military capabilities.

Situation Report