Sitrep 2025-04-28 20:50:00

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 28, 2025, 20:49 UTC)

Executive Summary

Intense ground combat continues across numerous axes, with significant Russian claims of localized advances on the Pokrovsk direction, the Lyman direction, the Toretsk direction, the Siversk direction, the Kupyansk direction, the Kramatorsk direction, the Novopavlivka direction, the Orikhiv direction, and the Prydniprovsk direction. The Kursk direction is also experiencing significant activity with 14 combat engagements reported. The Ukrainian General Staff reports a total of 133 combat engagements across the entire front throughout the day. Russian sources claim a powerful breakthrough and ongoing assault on Hryhorivka after the liberation of Bilohorivka on the Siversk direction, citing Ukrainian military analysts geolocating combat footage as confirmation of significant Russian advancement in this area.

Ukrainian forces report inflicting significant losses on the Pokrovsk direction, neutralizing 124 occupiers (63 irrevocably), and destroying four vehicles, one motorcycle, and three UAVs. They also highlight the successful actions of the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade, 140th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the Naval Infantry, and the 17th Regiment of the National Guard of Ukraine in the Kursk direction, containing superior enemy forces and inflicting significant losses. Ukrainian sources report repelling Russian assaults on various axes. A video claims a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully engaged and destroyed two targets ("Double kill") from the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura." Another video from "Operational ZSU" claims a Russian generator, Starlinks, and a vehicle were destroyed by a Ukrainian kamikaze drone shortly after Russian forces received them, highlighting effective counter-logistics operations. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR) heads have reported successful actions against Russian agent networks and saboteurs in Ukraine, and the liquidation of high-ranking Russian military personnel, respectively.

A major incident is the reported fire at a cargo vehicle parking area and diesel fuel tank near Novorossiysk. While the head of Novorossiysk officially attributes the fire to a diesel fuel tank and nearby vehicles and containers, with no reported casualties and an investigation into the cause, Ukrainian sources are linking this event to a prior "Neptune" missile threat warning in the area and suggesting it is a response to Russian strikes on Ukraine ("Добабахалися" - "They've messed around and gotten it"). Explosions were reportedly heard by local residents during the fire. Ukrainian sources are sharing videos and photos of the fire, attributing it to Ukrainian actions.

Russia continues extensive air strikes using guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force issued alerts for these regions and for tactical aviation activity on the southern and eastern directions with a threat of guided aerial weapons. KABs were specifically reported on Donetsk Oblast and air strike alerts were issued for Sumy, Chernihiv, and Odesa Oblasts due to potential attack UAV use, as well as for the entirety of Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to potential UAV activity. New groups of attack UAVs are reported moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, specifically in the direction of Vylkove, with one remaining drone still near Vylkove. Threats of UAV attacks have been declared in Lipetsk Oblast, specifically in Yelets and Yelets district, with 51 Ukrainian UAVs claimed to have been destroyed over Russian regions in 2.5 hours, including 40 over Kursk Oblast, 5 over Oryol Oblast, 2 over Crimea, 3 over the Black Sea, and 1 over Belgorod Oblast. Two Ukrainian drones are reported to be approaching Kramatorsk.

Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with President Zelenskyy explicitly rejecting Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire timing, emphasizing the need for an immediate and comprehensive cessation of fire for at least 30 days to facilitate real diplomacy. He states Ukraine values human lives over parades. He also mentions preparing for meetings with international partners on peace negotiations and strengthening air defense, and reports on a stronger, more equal economic partnership agreement with the United States. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha has offered Ukrainian assistance to France, Spain, and Portugal in overcoming their energy crisis, potentially linked to recent power outages in those countries. Ukrainian sources also report that reported US calls for elections in Ukraine as a condition for a peace settlement have reportedly faded from official Washington rhetoric. A candidate for President of Poland, Maciej Maciak, has reportedly expressed admiration for Putin, which is noted by TASS. Financial Times reports that Kyiv and its European allies are concerned that Washington may withdraw from Ukraine negotiations this week, suggesting Trump is preparing a situation to disengage. Operational ZSU reports that some of Trump's advisors have an unwritten rule to only act on his instructions after he repeats them twice, citing a source claiming Trump "says a lot of shit."

Internal issues within Ukraine include ongoing efforts by 50 emergency brigades from across Ukraine to restore gas supply in Cherkasy following a reported Shahed attack. Ukraine is also preparing further sanction steps. Russia has initiated a criminal case regarding the alleged theft of over 240 million rubles during state defense orders by a former Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's Department of Property of Special Projects. Ukraine's Military Law Enforcement Service (VSP), in cooperation with the National Police and the SBU, has reportedly detained a serviceman for attempting to bribe an officer to avoid military service after being absent without leave since 2024, highlighting ongoing efforts to address internal discipline and corruption within the military. DeepState marks the 78th anniversary of Operation Vistula, highlighting the deportation of Ukrainians and the Javno concentration camp, and draws parallels to current issues, warning of the potential for Russia's ideology to shift from "Kyiv in three days" to "Warsaw in three days," emphasizing the need for mutual understanding between Ukrainian and Polish people. TASS reports that Maria Zakharova commented on alleged discriminatory calls in Ukraine to beat children for using the Russian language, calling such individuals "dead souls" and stating that denazification of Ukraine is needed. Хабаровск police reports on a meeting of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs with heads of the State Traffic Inspectorate, discussing measures to reduce road traffic fatalities. The Russian Ministry of Defense has released a top news summary for the day, highlighting Putin's order for a ceasefire for Victory Day celebrations (May 8-11), Putin's thanks to North Korean units for their contribution in Kursk Oblast, the liberation of Kamenka by the 344th Motorized Rifle Regiment, footage of various military equipment and personnel, and a Kalibr cruise missile test launch in the Pacific Ocean. Военкор Котенок comments on the alleged calls to beat children for using the Russian language by Ukrainian actor Bogdan Benyuk, calling him a "freak and scum" and agreeing with Zakharova's assessment of such individuals as "dead souls" and Ukraine as "dead Ukraine." President Zelenskyy held a phone call with the Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, offering Ukrainian assistance in restoring electricity following the large-scale blackout, citing Ukraine's experience in dealing with energy challenges and blackouts, and instructing the Minister of Energy to act quickly. TASS reports that electricity supply has been restored in several districts of Madrid. Acting Prime Minister of Portugal stated that the electricity problems did not affect the operation of essential services. РБК-Україна reports that electricity has been restored for 750,000 consumers in Portugal and provides updates on restoration efforts in Spain, with 35% of demand met and 51% of substations restored, also sharing videos of restored light in cities. Новости Москвы reports that Moscow is among the top five cities globally with the most expensive elite housing.

Tensions between India and Pakistan remain a notable international concern, with Pakistan's Minister of Defense initially warning of potential war within days, although later clarifying his statement was misinterpreted and referred to the next 2-3 days being important, not a guaranteed war, emphasizing psychological readiness for war. NDTV, citing an Indian MP, reports a claim that Pakistan will be divided into 4 parts by the end of the year. TASS reports that Pakistan's Minister of Defense clarified his statement was to show the seriousness of the situation, not predict war.

DeepState reports that 742 Belarusian mercenaries have been identified fighting for Russia, with ideological motivation being a key factor for many, and notes that at least 96 have died, linking this to Lukashenka's tacit approval.

Russian state media highlights Putin and Lukashenko's planned visit to Volgograd on April 29th for events commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War. Colonelcassad shares photos and videos from an "Innovation Day of the Airborne Forces" exhibition in Alabino, showcasing over 400 modern and prospective developments for VDV. Colonelcassad also shares video claiming the liberation of Kamenka, detailing the course of hostilities and the use of attack UAVs, robotic platforms, and artillery. Two majors are conducting a fundraiser for the 7th Guards Airborne Assault Division on the Zaporizhzhia front, seeking nearly 5 million rubles for drones, detectors, radios, and magazines. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the evacuation of a captured American M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley infantry fighting vehicle with BRAT protection from Kursk Oblast. Rybar and Daniil Bezsonov discuss the outcomes of the 17th week of 2025, including the ceasefire proposal, changes in the Russian Armed Forces, parades, the situation in Kursk Oblast, the "feat of the Koreans," and the prospects of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. Elder of Edda comments on the blackout in Spain and Portugal, using it to criticize Europe's readiness for war. Elder of Edda also comments on the training of North Korean soldiers, noting their adaptation to the realities of the conflict in Ukraine, particularly regarding drones.

Reports of a large-scale blackout in Spain and Portugal continue, impacting electricity, transport, and communication networks, with ongoing efforts to restore power. Some reports mention temporary power outages in border areas of France. The cause is still unknown, with possibilities including cyberattack, fire, or temperature fluctuations. TASS reports on the restoration of electricity in several districts of Madrid and Portugal, and Portugal's acting PM states essential services were not affected. РБК-Україна also reports on power restoration in Portugal and Spain, including specific numbers of consumers and substations.

Ukraine is reporting on a captured individual from Odesa who resided in the US, fled to Russia to avoid "bloody Interpol," gained Russian citizenship, and was subsequently deployed to fight in Ukraine with the 810th Sevastopol brigade, and is now in Ukrainian captivity. Operational ZSU shares video of an alleged domestic dispute in Kazan, Russia, potentially for information operations purposes. Два майора shares video from the coast of Crimea.

Strategic and Tactical Overview

Ukrainian Actions and Capabilities:

Defense and Counter-Actions: Ukrainian forces are actively defending against intense Russian assaults across multiple axes, reporting successful containment of attacks and inflicting significant losses, particularly on the Pokrovsk direction (124 neutralized occupiers, 63 irrevocably), and in the Kursk operational zone (crediting specific brigades for containing superior forces). The Ukrainian General Staff reports a total of 133 combat engagements throughout the day, indicating widespread and sustained defensive efforts. Videos showcase successful FPV drone strikes by the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" ("Double kill"). Another video highlights a successful counter-logistics strike by a Ukrainian kamikaze drone, destroying a Russian generator, Starlinks, and a vehicle.
Intelligence and Security Operations: Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR) heads have reported successful actions against Russian agent networks and saboteurs in Ukraine, and the liquidation of high-ranking Russian military personnel, respectively. This indicates ongoing efforts to disrupt Russian operations within Ukraine and target their leadership. Operational ZSU reports the detention of alleged Russian saboteurs in Dnipro who were allegedly preparing terrorist attacks, highlighting Ukrainian counter-intelligence capabilities.
Air Defense and Counter-Drone Operations: The Ukrainian Air Force continues to issue alerts for tactical aviation activity and the threat of guided aerial weapons, as well as for potential attack UAV use in various oblasts, demonstrating ongoing surveillance and warning capabilities. Air strike alerts were issued for Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts due to potential drone activity. KABs were reported on Donetsk Oblast. New groups of attack UAVs are reported moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, specifically in the direction of Vylkove, requiring ongoing air defense response, with one drone remaining near Vylkove. Two Ukrainian drones are reported approaching Kramatorsk.
Information Operations and Diplomacy: Ukrainian sources are actively linking the fire near Novorossiysk to a prior Neptune missile threat and framing it as a consequence of Russian actions ("Добабахалися"), promoting a narrative of successful counter-strikes. President Zelenskyy's explicit rejection of Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire and his call for an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire is a key element of Ukraine's diplomatic and information strategy, emphasizing the value of human lives and the need for real diplomacy. He also highlights preparations for further international meetings on peace and air defense, and reports on a stronger, more equal economic partnership agreement with the United States, indicating a strengthening of ties and potential for increased economic support. The offer of energy assistance to European nations amidst a major blackout is a diplomatic gesture aimed at strengthening ties and highlighting Ukraine's potential role in European energy security, and also serves as an information operation highlighting Ukraine's resilience and capability despite facing its own energy challenges. Reporting on the alleged fading of US calls for elections in Ukraine is also part of the information landscape, potentially addressing domestic political concerns. BUTUSOV PLUS continues to seek support for a petition to honor a fallen soldier, contributing to efforts to honor heroes and maintain morale. Operational ZSU highlights a captured individual who gained Russian citizenship and fought for Russia, likely for information operations purposes to deter others and portray Russian forces negatively. Operational ZSU also reports on some of Trump's advisors only acting on his instructions after he repeats them twice, likely to portray him as unreliable. DeepState highlights the 78th anniversary of Operation Vistula and draws parallels to current Russian actions, serving as an information operation to reinforce historical grievances and warn of potential future threats to neighboring countries. President Zelenskyy's phone call with the Spanish PM and offer of assistance with the blackout is a diplomatic and information operation to demonstrate solidarity and highlight Ukraine's expertise in energy resilience. РБК-Україна reporting on power restoration in Portugal and Spain is providing information on the situation in allied countries.
Response to Infrastructure Damage: Emergency brigades are working to restore gas supply in Cherkasy following a Russian Shahed attack, demonstrating ongoing efforts to address the impact of Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian officials are also reporting on the impact of Russian strikes on civilian areas and infrastructure in various regions.
Personnel: Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in combat across numerous fronts. Specific units (31st Mech, 140th Recon, 17th National Guard) are highlighted for their actions in the Kursk direction. A serviceman has been detained for attempted bribery to avoid service, indicating ongoing efforts to address internal discipline and corruption. Ukrainian intelligence and security services are actively engaged in targeting Russian personnel, including high-ranking officers. Ukrainian military units are showcasing training activities and meetings with recently released POWs. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade is reportedly seeking a doctor.
Logistics: A video showcasing the destruction of Russian logistical assets (generator, Starlinks, vehicle) by a Ukrainian drone highlights ongoing efforts to disrupt enemy supply lines.
Sanctions: Ukraine is preparing further sanction steps, indicating a continued strategy of using economic pressure against Russia.

Russian Actions and Claims:

Persistent Offensive Operations and Claimed Gains: Russia continues intense ground assaults on multiple axes, claiming significant numbers of assault actions (52 on Pokrovsk, 21 on Novopavlivka, 16 on Lyman, 14 on Kursk, 13 on Toretsk, 7 on Kramatorsk, 6 on Kupyansk, 6 on Siversk, 5 on Prydniprovsk, 4 on Orikhiv) and ongoing combat engagements on several fronts. While the Ukrainian General Staff reports higher overall combat engagement numbers, the reported locations of Russian assaults align with previously identified areas of intense fighting. Russian sources continue to emphasize claiming control over specific settlements and advancing towards others. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the liberation of Kamenka, suggesting continued offensive operations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims a powerful breakthrough and ongoing assault on Hryhorivka on the Siversk direction, citing Ukrainian sources.
Continued Aerial Bombardment: Russia continues to utilize tactical aviation for strikes and employ a large number of guided aerial bombs (112 KABs reported by Ukrainian General Staff) and attack drones (1103 kamikaze drones reported). KAB launches were reported on Donetsk Oblast, and tactical aviation activity was noted on the southern and eastern directions with a threat of guided aerial weapons employment for front-line oblasts. New threats of UAV attacks have been declared in Lipetsk Oblast, specifically in Yelets and Yelets district. Russia claims to have destroyed 51 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions in 2.5 hours, including 40 over Kursk Oblast and 5 over Oryol Oblast, highlighting Russian air defense activity against Ukrainian drone attacks.
Incident near Novorossiysk: The head of Novorossiysk reports a fire at a diesel fuel tank and nearby vehicles/containers, attributing it to a fire with no casualties and an ongoing investigation. However, Ukrainian sources are actively promoting a narrative linking this event to a Neptune missile threat and attributing it to Ukrainian actions, with reports of explosions heard by local residents.
Information Operations and Political Signaling: Russian sources continue to promote narratives of territorial gains and military successes, highlighting specific unit actions and the intensity of combat. They are also actively countering Ukrainian narratives regarding the Novorossiysk incident, emphasizing the official version of a fire. Russian state media (TASS) highlights statements from individuals like a Polish presidential candidate expressing admiration for Putin, likely to portray a favorable international perception. Russian military bloggers and state media (НгП раZVедка, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA) extensively report on and critique Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's rejection of Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire, framing his demand for a 30-day ceasefire as a manipulative attempt to allow Ukrainian forces to regroup and avoid strategic defeat. НгП раZVедка uses strong, negative language to describe Zelenskyy and his stance on negotiations. Colonelcassad shares videos related to Ukrainian mobilization efforts, likely for information operations. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZ shares a photo with a caption suggesting continuous operational activity. Russian state media is also highlighting Russia's capability to prevent large-scale power outages. TASS reports on an incident where Ukrainian individuals allegedly attempted to provoke a Russian hockey player in Canada, potentially for information operations targeting the Ukrainian diaspora. Басурин о главном shares a video of a fireworks display for patriotic messaging. Kadyrov_95 reports on a visit by the Russian Minister of Emergency Situations to Chechnya, highlighting cooperation and support. Colonelcassad's sharing of footage from the VDV Innovation Day serves as an information operation to showcase Russian military technological developments and capabilities. Colonelcassad's video claiming the liberation of Kamenka is likely part of Russian information operations to highlight claimed territorial gains. Two majors' fundraiser for the 7th Guards Airborne Assault Division is an information operation to garner support and highlight the needs of specific units. Colonelcassad's video claiming the evacuation of a captured Bradley is likely an information operation to highlight the capture of Western equipment. Rybar and Bezsonov's discussion of current events, including the "feat of the Koreans," is an information operation to shape narratives about the conflict and allied support. Elder of Edda's commentary on the Spanish/Portuguese blackout is an information operation to criticize European capabilities and readiness for war. Elder of Edda's commentary on North Korean training is an information operation to acknowledge their adaptation and highlight insights gained from the conflict. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claiming a powerful breakthrough on the Siversk direction, citing Ukrainian analysis, is an information operation to highlight claimed Russian military success and acknowledge Ukrainian sources to enhance credibility. TASS reports Maria Zakharova's comments on alleged discriminatory calls against Russian language use in Ukraine, framing it within the need for "denazification," serving as an information operation to justify Russian actions and portray Ukraine negatively. Военкор Котенок amplifying and adding to Zakharova's comments on alleged discrimination against Russian language use in Ukraine is an information operation aimed at reinforcing the narrative of "denazification" and portraying Ukraine negatively. The Russian Ministry of Defense's top news summary serves as a central information operation to highlight key events, claims, and directives, including a ceasefire order, thanks to North Korean troops, claimed territorial gains, and military capabilities. Два майора sharing video from the coast of Crimea is likely an information operation to portray normalcy or control in the region.
Internal Security and Corruption: A criminal case has been initiated by military investigators against a former Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's Department of Property of Special Projects for alleged large-scale theft. Хабаровск police reports on a meeting of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, focusing on domestic issues like reducing road traffic fatalities, which provides insight into internal governance and priorities, although not directly military. Новости Москвы reporting on Moscow's ranking in elite housing costs is domestic economic reporting.
International Relations: Russian sources highlight reports on power outages and declared states of emergency in Spain, France, and Portugal, using it to promote the reliability of Russia's energy system and in contrast to Ukraine offering energy assistance to these countries. Tensions between India and Pakistan are highlighted by Russian military bloggers and state media, with varying reports on the imminence of war and claims of Pakistan's potential division. DeepState reports on the presence and casualties of Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Russia, with ideological motivation being a key factor, and notes Lukashenka's tacit approval. Russian state media highlights planned meetings between Putin and Lukashenko in Volgograd. TASS reports that Pakistan's Minister of Defense clarified his statement was to show the seriousness of the situation, not predict war. Rybar and Bezsonov's discussion includes the prospects of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, highlighting continued Russian interest in this regional tension. Elder of Edda's commentary on the Spanish/Portuguese blackout is framed in the context of European support for Ukraine. TASS reports on the restoration of electricity in Madrid and Portugal, indicating a return to normalcy in these countries.
Capabilities and Logistics: Colonelcassad's sharing of photos and videos from the "Innovation Day of the Airborne Forces" exhibition in Alabino highlights Russian efforts in developing and showcasing new military technologies, particularly for the VDV. Colonelcassad's video claiming the liberation of Kamenka mentions the use of attack UAVs, robotic platforms, and artillery, indicating the integration of these assets in Russian offensive operations. Two majors' fundraiser for the 7th Guards Airborne Assault Division on the Zaporizhzhia front highlights ongoing logistical needs and community support efforts for specific Russian units. Colonelcassad's video claiming the evacuation of a captured Bradley indicates Russian efforts to recover and potentially study captured Western military equipment. Rybar and Bezsonov's discussion includes changes in the Russian Armed Forces and changing approaches, suggesting ongoing internal assessments and potential reforms within the Russian military. Elder of Edda's commentary on North Korean training acknowledges their adaptation to the realities of the conflict, suggesting a learning process is occurring within allied forces. Russia claims to have destroyed 51 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions, highlighting their air defense capabilities. The Russian Ministry of Defense's top news summary highlights various military equipment and personnel, including T-80BVM tanks, Uragan and Grad MLRS, Msta-S howitzers, UAV pilots, EOD specialists, and a Kalibr missile test launch, showcasing a range of Russian military capabilities.
Casualties and Losses: Ukraine reports inflicting significant losses on the Pokrovsk direction, neutralizing 124 occupiers (63 irrevocably). Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR) head reported the liquidation of individuals from the higher command staff of the Russian armed forces, suggesting significant losses within the Russian military leadership. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the liberation of Kamenka, implying Ukrainian losses in the fighting. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the evacuation of a captured American M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley from Kursk Oblast, representing a loss of significant Western military equipment for Ukraine. Russia claims to have destroyed 51 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions, representing losses for Ukraine's drone fleet. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claiming a powerful breakthrough on the Siversk direction implies Ukrainian losses in personnel and territory in that area.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Axis: Continued exceptionally intense ground combat with Russian claims of numerous assault actions and ongoing engagements. Ukrainian General Staff reports 52 assault actions with 15 ongoing. Ukrainian forces report neutralizing 124 occupiers and destroying equipment.
Lyman Direction: Russian forces reported 16 attacks with 7 ongoing combat engagements.
Toretsk Direction: Russian forces reported 13 attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses with 4 ongoing combat engagements.
Siversk Direction: Russian forces reported 6 attacks with 3 ongoing combat engagements. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims a powerful breakthrough and ongoing assault on Hryhorivka after the liberation of Bilohorivka in this direction.
Kupyansk Direction: Russian forces reported 6 attempts to displace Ukrainian units with 2 ongoing combat engagements.
Kramatorsk Direction: Russian forces reported 7 attempts to advance with 2 ongoing combat engagements. Two Ukrainian drones are reported to be approaching Kramatorsk.
Novopavlivka Direction: Russian forces reported 21 attacks with no ongoing combat engagements.
Orikhiv Direction: Russian forces reported 4 combat engagements with no ongoing combat engagements. Fundraising is being conducted for the 7th Guards Airborne Assault Division on this front.
Prydniprovsk Direction: Russian forces reported 5 combat engagements with no ongoing combat engagements.
Kursk Direction: High intensity of fighting with 14 combat engagements, significant artillery fire (228 bombardments, 1 MLRS), and aerial strikes (12 air strikes, 18 KABs). Ukrainian forces highlight successful actions of specific brigades in this area. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the evacuation of a captured American M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley from this area. Russia claims 40 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Kursk Oblast in 2.5 hours.
Sumy Oblast: Subject to Russian KAB strikes and potential attack UAV use (air strike alert issued). Potential attack UAV threat noted.
Kharkiv Oblast: Subject to Russian KAB strikes.
Donetsk Oblast: Subject to Russian KAB strikes.
Novorossiysk (Russia): Reported fire at a cargo vehicle parking area and diesel fuel tank near Kirillovka village. Official Russian reports attribute it to a fire with an ongoing investigation. Ukrainian sources link it to a prior Neptune missile threat and report explosions.
Cherkasy Oblast: Ongoing work to restore gas supply following a reported Shahed attack.
Chernihiv Oblast: Potential threat of attack UAVs (air strike alert issued).
Odesa Oblast: Potential threat of attack UAVs (air strike alert issued). New groups of attack UAVs are reported moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, specifically in the direction of Vylkove, with one remaining drone near Vylkove.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Potential threat of attack UAVs (air strike alert issued for the entire oblast).
India-Pakistan Border: Heightened tensions with statements from Pakistan's Minister of Defense regarding the importance of the coming days, and an Indian MP claiming Pakistan's potential division. Pakistan's Minister of Defense clarified his statements were not a prediction of war.
Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Threat of freezing temperatures is predicted, potentially impacting agriculture. Russia claims Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over this region.
Lipetsk Oblast (Russia): Threat of UAV attacks declared in Yelets and Yelets district.
Kamenka (Claimed): Colonelcassad shares video claiming the liberation of this settlement by Russian forces, detailing the combat actions.
Balashikha (Russia): Colonelcassad shares photos and video from an "Innovation Day of the Airborne Forces" exhibition held here.
Oryol Oblast (Russia): Russia claims 5 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over this region in 2.5 hours.
Crimea: Russia claims 2 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over this region in 2.5 hours. Два майора shares video from the coast of Crimea.
Black Sea: New groups of attack UAVs are reported moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, specifically in the direction of Vylkove. Russia claims 3 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over the Black Sea in 2.5 hours.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Russia claims 1 Ukrainian UAV was destroyed over this region in 2.5 hours.
Spain and Portugal: Large-scale blackout impacting electricity, transport, and communication networks. Restoration efforts are ongoing. TASS reports restoration in Madrid and Portugal. РБК-Україна reports on power restoration in Portugal and Spain.
Dnipro: Оперативний ЗСУ reports the detention of alleged Russian saboteurs in Dnipro.
Madrid (Spain): TASS reports restoration of electricity in several districts.
Portugal: TASS and РБК-Україна report on power restoration.

Potential Future Developments

Independent verification of claimed territorial changes on all reported axes of Russian assault, including the claimed liberation of Kamenka and the alleged breakthrough on the Siversk direction towards Hryhorivka.
Further details and investigation into the incident near Novorossiysk, including the official cause of the fire and any potential connection to military activity or prior threat warnings, and the impact on Russian logistics.
Continued Russian air strikes using KABs and attack UAVs on front-line and border regions, particularly Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts, and potential threats to Chernihiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and potential new targets like Lipetsk Oblast. Continued movement of attack UAVs towards Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea. Potential for further Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, including claimed interceptions in Kursk and Oryol Oblasts.
The complete restoration of gas supply in Cherkasy.
Further diplomatic exchanges regarding a potential peace settlement following President Zelenskyy's explicit rejection of the proposed ceasefire timing and planned international meetings. Potential impact of the reported concerns about US withdrawal from negotiations.
Any observable impact of Ukraine's offer of energy assistance to European nations, including the ongoing situation with the blackout in Spain and Portugal.
The trajectory of tensions between India and Pakistan and any potential wider geopolitical implications, including responses to claims of Pakistan's potential division.
Further reports or investigations into the corruption case within the Russian Ministry of Defense and the bribery case within the Ukrainian military.
Any observable impact of the presence and activities of Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Russia.
Potential shifts in Ukrainian and Russian rhetoric or actions regarding a ceasefire following President Zelenskyy's statement and Putin's declared Victory Day ceasefire.
Further details regarding the reported power outages and states of emergency in Spain, France, and Portugal and any response to Ukraine's offer of assistance. Continued progress in power restoration in these countries.
Outcomes of the planned meeting between Putin and Lukashenko in Volgograd and any implications from the VDV Innovation Day exhibition.
Further details regarding the claimed liquidation of high-ranking Russian military personnel by Ukrainian intelligence.
Impact of the strengthened economic partnership agreement between Ukraine and the United States.
Further information regarding the captured individual from Odesa who fought for Russia.
Any observable impact of the threatened freezing temperatures on agriculture in Bryansk Oblast.
Any further reports or actions related to alleged discrimination against Russian language use in Ukraine.
Further details regarding the detention of alleged Russian saboteurs in Dnipro.

Potential Indicators

Independent confirmation or refutation of claimed Russian advances on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Siversk (particularly Hryhorivka), Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Prydniprovsk, and Kursk directions, and the claimed liberation of Kamenka.
Official statements from either side regarding the incident near Novorossiysk and its cause, or any evidence of a missile strike.
Changes in the frequency or targets of Russian KAB and attack UAV strikes, including the sustained movement of drones towards Odesa Oblast and any attacks in Lipetsk Oblast or observed impact of Ukrainian drone attacks in Russian regions, and confirmation of claimed interceptions. Observation of two drones approaching Kramatorsk.
Progress in the restoration of gas supply in Cherkasy.
Public statements or outcomes following diplomatic engagements related to the conflict, particularly concerning ceasefire proposals and planned international meetings. Any statements or actions regarding potential US withdrawal from negotiations.
Any observable actions or progress related to Ukraine's offer of energy assistance to European nations, including the resolution of the blackout in Spain and Portugal. Continued reporting on power restoration efforts.
Changes in military posture or rhetoric between India and Pakistan.
Further details or official outcomes of the investigation into the corruption case in Russia and the bribery case in Ukraine.
Any observable impact of the presence and activities of Belarusian mercenaries on the operational situation or Russian information campaigns.
Any shifts in official positions on a ceasefire from Ukraine or Russia, or any observable changes in the intensity of combat following President Zelenskyy's statement and Putin's declared ceasefire.
Further reports or official statements regarding the power outages in Spain, France, and Portugal and any response to Ukraine's offer of assistance.
Outcomes or statements following the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko. Any observed implementation or deployment of technologies showcased at the VDV Innovation Day.
Independent verification of claimed Ukrainian successes against Russian personnel and equipment on the Pokrovsk direction and the effectiveness of specific Ukrainian units in the Kursk direction, and claimed liquidation of high-ranking Russian military personnel.
Observation of Russian military blogger activity, including fundraising appeals, for indicators of logistical needs. Continued fundraising efforts by Two Majors for the 7th Guards Airborne Assault Division.
Details regarding the implementation and impact of the strengthened economic partnership agreement between Ukraine and the United States.
Further information regarding the captured individual from Odesa.
Reports on the impact of freezing temperatures on agriculture in Bryansk Oblast.
Any official investigations or actions taken regarding alleged discrimination against Russian language use in Ukraine.
Official confirmation and details regarding the detention of alleged Russian saboteurs in Dnipro.
Any observed impact or continuation of the large-scale blackout in Spain and Portugal and the restoration efforts.

Updated Situation

The conflict remains highly dynamic and intense, with widespread ground combat reported by the Ukrainian General Staff across numerous axes, including Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Siversk, Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Prydniprovsk, and Kursk. Russia is claiming numerous assault actions and ongoing engagements across these fronts, and the Kursk direction is experiencing significant artillery and aerial bombardment. Russia also claims the liberation of Kamenka and a powerful breakthrough on the Siversk direction towards Hryhorivka. Ukraine is actively defending and reports inflicting substantial losses on the Pokrovsk direction and highlights the effectiveness of specific units in the Kursk operational zone. Ukraine is also showcasing successful drone strikes against Russian personnel and logistics. Ukraine's intelligence and security services report successful actions against Russian agent networks and saboteurs, and the liquidation of high-ranking Russian military personnel. A significant incident is the reported fire at a cargo vehicle parking area and diesel fuel tank near Novorossiysk, which Ukrainian sources are linking to a prior Neptune missile threat and portraying as a consequence of Russian actions, while official Russian reports attribute it to a fire with an ongoing investigation. Russia continues extensive KAB and attack UAV strikes on front-line and border oblasts, with new drone activity reported towards Odesa Oblast from the Black Sea (with one remaining drone near Vylkove), and UAV threats declared in Lipetsk Oblast. Russia also claims to have destroyed 51 Ukrainian UAVs over various Russian regions. Two Ukrainian drones are reported approaching Kramatorsk. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy explicitly rejecting Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire and calling for an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, and reporting a stronger economic partnership with the US. Concerns about potential US withdrawal from negotiations and conflicting reports about Trump's stance are circulating. Ukraine is also offering energy assistance to European nations amidst a large-scale blackout in Spain and Portugal, with reports of ongoing restoration efforts in these countries. Efforts to restore gas supply in Cherkasy are ongoing following a Russian attack. Internal issues within both Ukraine (bribery case, preparing sanctions, alleged saboteur detention) and Russia (corruption case, VDV Innovation Day, fundraising, reported domestic police meeting, domestic economic reports, claimed UAV interceptions) are reported. Tensions between India and Pakistan remain a notable international concern with conflicting statements on the imminence of war and claims of potential division. DeepState reports on the presence and casualties of Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Russia and highlights the historical context of Operation Vistula and potential future Russian expansionist threats. Russian state media highlights upcoming meetings between Putin and Lukashenko and comments on alleged discrimination against Russian language use in Ukraine. Reports of a captured individual from Odesa who fought for Russia are circulating. Threatened freezing temperatures are predicted in Bryansk Oblast. Russian military bloggers are actively engaged in information operations and fundraising. The Russian Ministry of Defense has summarized key events, including a ceasefire order, thanking North Korean troops, and highlighting military capabilities.

Situation Report