Sitrep 2025-04-28 19:49:46

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 28, 2025, 19:49 UTC)

Executive Summary

Intense ground combat continues across numerous axes, with significant Russian claims of localized advances on the Pokrovsk direction (claiming advances near Sukha Balka, Elizavetovka, Sukhyi Yar, Malynivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novosergiyevka, Novooleksandrivka, Nadiyivka, Troyitske, Kotlyarivka, Sribne, Andriyivka, towards Pokrovsk, Stara Mykolaivka, Oleksandropil, Novopavlivka, Bohdanivka, including 52 assault actions with 15 ongoing), the Lyman direction (claiming 16 attacks with 7 ongoing), the Toretsk direction (claiming 13 attempts to break through with 4 ongoing), the Siversk direction (claiming 6 attacks with 3 ongoing), the Kupyansk direction (claiming 6 attempts to displace Ukrainian units with 2 ongoing), the Kramatorsk direction (claiming 7 attempts to advance with 2 ongoing), the Novopavlivka direction (claiming 21 attacks with none ongoing), the Orikhiv direction (claiming 4 combat engagements with none ongoing), and the Prydniprovsk direction (claiming 5 combat engagements with none ongoing). The Kursk direction is also experiencing significant activity with 14 combat engagements reported, 228 artillery bombardments (including one MLRS), 12 air strikes, and 18 guided bombs dropped. The Ukrainian General Staff reports a total of 133 combat engagements across the entire front throughout the day.

Ukrainian forces report inflicting significant losses on the Pokrovsk direction, neutralizing 124 occupiers (63 irrevocably), and destroying four vehicles, one motorcycle, and three UAVs. They also highlight the successful actions of the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade, 140th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the Naval Infantry, and the 17th Regiment of the National Guard of Ukraine in the Kursk direction, containing superior enemy forces and inflicting significant losses. Ukrainian sources report repelling Russian assaults on various axes. A video claims a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully engaged and destroyed two targets ("Double kill") from the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura." Another video from "Operational ZSU" claims a Russian generator, Starlinks, and a vehicle were destroyed by a Ukrainian kamikaze drone shortly after Russian forces received them, highlighting effective counter-logistics operations.

A major incident is the reported fire at a cargo vehicle parking area and diesel fuel tank near Novorossiysk. While the head of Novorossiysk officially attributes the fire to a diesel fuel tank and nearby vehicles and containers, with no reported casualties and an investigation into the cause, Ukrainian sources (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) are linking this event to a prior "Neptune" missile threat warning in the area and suggesting it is a response to Russian strikes on Ukraine ("Добабахалися" - "They've messed around and gotten it"). Explosions were reportedly heard by local residents during the fire. Ukrainian sources are sharing videos and photos of the fire, attributing it to Ukrainian actions.

Russia continues extensive air strikes using guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force issued alerts for these regions and for tactical aviation activity on the southern and eastern directions with a threat of guided aerial weapons. KABs were specifically reported on Donetsk Oblast and air strike alerts were issued for Sumy, Chernihiv, and Odesa Oblasts due to potential attack UAV use, as well as for the entirety of Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to potential UAV activity.

Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with President Zelenskyy explicitly rejecting Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire timing, emphasizing the need for an immediate and comprehensive cessation of fire for at least 30 days to facilitate real diplomacy. He states Ukraine values human lives over parades. He also mentions preparing for meetings with international partners on peace negotiations and strengthening air defense. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha has offered Ukrainian assistance to France, Spain, and Portugal in overcoming their energy crisis, potentially linked to recent power outages in those countries. Ukrainian sources also report that reported US calls for elections in Ukraine as a condition for a peace settlement have reportedly faded from official Washington rhetoric. A candidate for President of Poland, Maciej Maciak, has reportedly expressed admiration for Putin, which is noted by TASS.

Internal issues within Ukraine include ongoing efforts by 50 emergency brigades from across Ukraine to restore gas supply in Cherkasy following a reported Shahed attack. Russia has initiated a criminal case regarding the alleged theft of over 240 million rubles during state defense orders by a former Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's Department of Property of Special Projects. Ukraine's Military Law Enforcement Service (VSP), in cooperation with the National Police and the SBU, has reportedly detained a serviceman for attempting to bribe an officer to avoid military service after being absent without leave since 2024, highlighting ongoing efforts to address internal discipline and corruption within the military.

Tensions between India and Pakistan remain a notable international concern, with Pakistan's Minister of Defense initially warning of potential war within days, although later clarifying his statement was misinterpreted and referred to the next 2-3 days being important, not a guaranteed war, emphasizing psychological readiness for war. NDTV, citing an Indian MP, reports a claim that Pakistan will be divided into 4 parts by the end of the year.

DeepState reports that 742 Belarusian mercenaries have been identified fighting for Russia, with ideological motivation being a key factor for many, and notes that at least 96 have died, linking this to Lukashenka's tacit approval.

Russian state media highlights Putin and Lukashenko's planned visit to Volgograd on April 29th for events commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War.

Strategic and Tactical Overview

Ukrainian Actions and Capabilities:

Defense and Counter-Actions: Ukrainian forces are actively defending against intense Russian assaults across multiple axes, reporting successful containment of attacks and inflicting significant losses, particularly on the Pokrovsk direction (124 neutralized occupiers, 63 irrevocably), and in the Kursk operational zone (crediting specific brigades for containing superior forces). The Ukrainian General Staff reports a total of 133 combat engagements throughout the day, indicating widespread and sustained defensive efforts. Videos showcase successful FPV drone strikes by the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" ("Double kill"). Another video highlights a successful counter-logistics strike by a Ukrainian kamikaze drone, destroying a Russian generator, Starlinks, and a vehicle.
Air Defense and Counter-Drone Operations: The Ukrainian Air Force continues to issue alerts for tactical aviation activity and the threat of guided aerial weapons, as well as for potential attack UAV use in various oblasts, demonstrating ongoing surveillance and warning capabilities. Air strike alerts were issued for Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts due to potential drone activity. KABs were reported on Donetsk Oblast.
Information Operations and Diplomacy: Ukrainian sources (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) are actively linking the fire near Novorossiysk to a prior Neptune missile threat and framing it as a consequence of Russian actions ("Добабахалися"), promoting a narrative of successful counter-strikes. President Zelenskyy's explicit rejection of Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire and his call for an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire is a key element of Ukraine's diplomatic and information strategy, emphasizing the value of human lives and the need for real diplomacy. He also highlights preparations for further international meetings on peace and air defense. The offer of energy assistance to European nations is a diplomatic gesture aimed at strengthening ties and highlighting Ukraine's potential role in European energy security. Reporting on the alleged fading of US calls for elections in Ukraine is also part of the information landscape, potentially addressing domestic political concerns. BUTUSOV PLUS continues to seek support for a petition to honor a fallen soldier, contributing to efforts to honor heroes and maintain morale.
Response to Infrastructure Damage: Emergency brigades are working to restore gas supply in Cherkasy following a Russian Shahed attack, demonstrating ongoing efforts to address the impact of Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure.
Personnel: Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in combat across numerous fronts. Specific units (31st Mech, 140th Recon, 17th National Guard) are highlighted for their actions in the Kursk direction. A serviceman has been detained for attempted bribery to avoid service, indicating ongoing efforts to address internal discipline and corruption.
Logistics: A video showcasing the destruction of Russian logistical assets (generator, Starlinks, vehicle) by a Ukrainian drone highlights ongoing efforts to disrupt enemy supply lines.

Russian Actions and Claims:

Persistent Offensive Operations and Claimed Gains: Russia continues intense ground assaults on multiple axes, claiming significant numbers of assault actions (52 on Pokrovsk, 21 on Novopavlivka, 16 on Lyman, 14 on Kursk, 13 on Toretsk, 7 on Kramatorsk, 6 on Kupyansk, 6 on Siversk, 5 on Prydniprovsk, 4 on Orikhiv) and ongoing combat engagements on several fronts. While the Ukrainian General Staff reports higher overall combat engagement numbers, the reported locations of Russian assaults align with previously identified areas of intense fighting. Russian sources continue to emphasize claiming control over specific settlements and advancing towards others.
Continued Aerial Bombardment: Russia continues to utilize tactical aviation for strikes and employ a large number of guided aerial bombs (112 KABs reported by Ukrainian General Staff) and attack drones (1103 kamikaze drones reported). KAB launches were reported on Donetsk Oblast, and tactical aviation activity was noted on the southern and eastern directions with a threat of guided aerial weapons employment for front-line oblasts.
Incident near Novorossiysk: The head of Novorossiysk reports a fire at a diesel fuel tank and nearby vehicles/containers, attributing it to a fire with no casualties and an ongoing investigation. However, Ukrainian sources are actively promoting a narrative linking this event to a Neptune missile threat and attributing it to Ukrainian actions, with reports of explosions heard by local residents.
Information Operations and Political Signaling: Russian sources continue to promote narratives of territorial gains and military successes, highlighting specific unit actions and the intensity of combat. They are also actively countering Ukrainian narratives regarding the Novorossiysk incident, emphasizing the official version of a fire. Russian state media (TASS) highlights statements from individuals like a Polish presidential candidate expressing admiration for Putin, likely to portray a favorable international perception. Russian military bloggers and state media (НгП раZVедка, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA) extensively report on and critique Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's rejection of Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire, framing his demand for a 30-day ceasefire as a manipulative attempt to allow Ukrainian forces to regroup and avoid strategic defeat. НгП раZVедка uses strong, negative language to describe Zelenskyy and his stance on negotiations. Colonelcassad shares videos related to Ukrainian mobilization efforts, likely for information operations. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a photo with a caption suggesting continuous operational activity. Russian state media is also highlighting Russia's capability to prevent large-scale power outages. TASS reports on an incident where Ukrainian individuals allegedly attempted to provoke a Russian hockey player in Canada, potentially for information operations targeting the Ukrainian diaspora. Басурин о главном shares a video of a fireworks display for patriotic messaging. Kadyrov_95 reports on a visit by the Russian Minister of Emergency Situations to Chechnya, highlighting cooperation and support.
Internal Security and Corruption: A criminal case has been initiated by military investigators against a former Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's Department of Property of Special Projects for alleged large-scale theft.
International Relations: Russian sources highlight reports on power outages and declared states of emergency in Spain, France, and Portugal, using it to promote the reliability of Russia's energy system and in contrast to Ukraine offering energy assistance to these countries. Tensions between India and Pakistan are highlighted by Russian military bloggers and state media, with varying reports on the imminence of war and claims of Pakistan's potential division. DeepState reports on the presence and casualties of Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Russia, with ideological motivation being a key factor, and notes Lukashenka's tacit approval. Russian state media highlights planned meetings between Putin and Lukashenko in Volgograd.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Axis: Continued exceptionally intense ground combat with Russian claims of numerous assault actions and ongoing engagements. Ukrainian General Staff reports 52 assault actions with 15 ongoing. Ukrainian forces report neutralizing 124 occupiers and destroying equipment.
Lyman Direction: Russian forces reported 16 attacks with 7 ongoing combat engagements.
Toretsk Direction: Russian forces reported 13 attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses with 4 ongoing combat engagements.
Siversk Direction: Russian forces reported 6 attacks with 3 ongoing combat engagements.
Kupyansk Direction: Russian forces reported 6 attempts to displace Ukrainian units with 2 ongoing combat engagements.
Kramatorsk Direction: Russian forces reported 7 attempts to advance with 2 ongoing combat engagements.
Novopavlivka Direction: Russian forces reported 21 attacks with no ongoing combat engagements.
Orikhiv Direction: Russian forces reported 4 combat engagements with no ongoing combat engagements.
Prydniprovsk Direction: Russian forces reported 5 combat engagements with no ongoing combat engagements.
Kursk Direction: High intensity of fighting with 14 combat engagements, significant artillery fire (228 bombardments, 1 MLRS), and aerial strikes (12 air strikes, 18 KABs). Ukrainian forces highlight successful actions of specific brigades in this area.
Sumy Oblast: Subject to Russian KAB strikes and potential attack UAV use (air strike alert issued). Potential attack UAV threat noted.
Kharkiv Oblast: Subject to Russian KAB strikes.
Donetsk Oblast: Subject to Russian KAB strikes.
Novorossiysk (Russia): Reported fire at a cargo vehicle parking area and diesel fuel tank near Kirillovka village. Official Russian reports attribute it to a fire with an ongoing investigation. Ukrainian sources link it to a prior Neptune missile threat and report explosions.
Cherkasy Oblast: Ongoing work to restore gas supply following a reported Shahed attack.
Chernihiv Oblast: Potential threat of attack UAVs (air strike alert issued).
Odesa Oblast: Potential threat of attack UAVs (air strike alert issued).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Potential threat of attack UAVs (air strike alert issued for the entire oblast).
India-Pakistan Border: Heightened tensions with statements from Pakistan's Minister of Defense regarding the importance of the coming days, and an Indian MP claiming Pakistan's potential division.

Potential Future Developments

Independent verification of claimed territorial changes on all reported axes of Russian assault.
Further details and investigation into the incident near Novorossiysk, including the official cause of the fire and any potential connection to military activity or prior threat warnings, and the impact on Russian logistics.
Continued Russian air strikes using KABs and attack UAVs on front-line and border regions, particularly Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts, and potential threats to Chernihiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
The complete restoration of gas supply in Cherkasy.
Further diplomatic exchanges regarding a potential peace settlement following President Zelenskyy's explicit rejection of the proposed ceasefire timing and planned international meetings.
Any observable impact of Ukraine's offer of energy assistance to European nations.
The trajectory of tensions between India and Pakistan and any potential wider geopolitical implications, including responses to claims of Pakistan's potential division.
Further reports or investigations into the corruption case within the Russian Ministry of Defense and the bribery case within the Ukrainian military.
Any observable impact of the presence and activities of Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Russia.
Potential shifts in Ukrainian and Russian rhetoric or actions regarding a ceasefire following President Zelenskyy's statement.
Further details regarding the reported power outages and states of emergency in Spain, France, and Portugal and any response to Ukraine's offer of assistance.
Outcomes of the planned meeting between Putin and Lukashenko in Volgograd.

Potential Indicators

Independent confirmation or refutation of claimed Russian advances on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Siversk, Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Prydniprovsk, and Kursk directions.
Official statements from either side regarding the incident near Novorossiysk and its cause, or any evidence of a missile strike.
Changes in the frequency or targets of Russian KAB and attack UAV strikes.
Progress in the restoration of gas supply in Cherkasy.
Public statements or outcomes following diplomatic engagements related to the conflict, particularly concerning ceasefire proposals and planned international meetings.
Any observable actions or progress related to Ukraine's offer of energy assistance to European nations.
Changes in military posture or rhetoric between India and Pakistan.
Further details or official outcomes of the investigation into the corruption case in Russia and the bribery case in Ukraine.
Any observable impact of the presence and activities of Belarusian mercenaries on the operational situation or Russian information campaigns.
Any shifts in official positions on a ceasefire from Ukraine or Russia, or any observable changes in the intensity of combat following President Zelenskyy's statement.
Further reports or official statements regarding the power outages in Spain, France, and Portugal and any response to Ukraine's offer of assistance.
Outcomes or statements following the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko.
Independent verification of claimed Ukrainian successes against Russian personnel and equipment on the Pokrovsk direction and the effectiveness of specific Ukrainian units in the Kursk direction.
Observation of Russian military blogger activity, including fundraising appeals, for indicators of logistical needs.

Updated Situation: The conflict remains highly dynamic and intense, with widespread ground combat reported by the Ukrainian General Staff across numerous axes, including Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Siversk, Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Prydniprovsk, and Kursk. Russia is claiming numerous assault actions and ongoing engagements across these fronts, and the Kursk direction is experiencing significant artillery and aerial bombardment. Ukraine is actively defending and reports inflicting substantial losses on the Pokrovsk direction and highlights the effectiveness of specific units in the Kursk operational zone. Ukraine is also showcasing successful drone strikes against Russian personnel and logistics. A significant incident is the reported fire at a cargo vehicle parking area and diesel fuel tank near Novorossiysk, which Ukrainian sources are linking to a prior Neptune missile threat and portraying as a consequence of Russian actions, while official Russian reports attribute it to a fire with an ongoing investigation. Russia continues extensive KAB and attack UAV strikes on front-line and border oblasts. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy explicitly rejecting Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire and calling for an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine is also offering energy assistance to European nations. Efforts to restore gas supply in Cherkasy are ongoing following a Russian attack. Internal issues within both Ukraine (bribery case) and Russia (corruption case) are reported. Tensions between India and Pakistan remain a notable international concern with conflicting statements on the imminence of war and claims of potential division. DeepState reports on the presence and casualties of Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Russia. Russian state media highlights upcoming meetings between Putin and Lukashenko.

Situation Report