Sitrep 2025-04-28 19:19:47

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 28, 2025, 19:19 UTC)

Executive Summary

The tactical situation remains highly dynamic with intense ground combat across multiple fronts. Russian forces continue offensive operations, claiming further localized advances on several axes, including the Pokrovsk direction (claiming to have reached the Bogatyr - Konstantynopil highway and occupied a gas station east of Bogatyr), the Siversk direction (claiming to be attempting to break through near Hryhorivka with reports of Ukrainian withdrawal), and the Konstantinovka direction (with claims of advances near Vodyane Druhe and Berezivka). Russian sources also claim advances near Vodyane Druhe and Berezivka, which are noted as newly captured territory on a Russian military map dated April 28, 2025. Ukrainian forces report repelling assaults, including a Russian armored assault on the Toretsk direction.

A significant incident is the reported ignition of a cargo vehicle parking area and fuel tank near Novorossiysk. While the head of Novorossiysk officially attributes the fire to a diesel fuel tank and nearby vehicles and containers, with no reported casualties and an investigation into the cause, Ukrainian sources are linking this event to a prior "Neptune" missile threat warning in the area and suggesting it is a response to Russian strikes on Ukraine. Explosions were reportedly heard by local residents during the fire.

Russia continues extensive air strikes using guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, with the Ukrainian Air Force issuing alerts for these regions. Russian tactical aviation remains active on the southern and eastern directions.

Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with the US reportedly urging Russia to cease hostilities and discussions of a potential peace process. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has explicitly rejected Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire timing, emphasizing the need for an immediate and comprehensive cessation of fire for at least 30 days to facilitate real diplomacy and preparing for meetings with international partners on peace negotiations and strengthening air defense. He also highlights a positive development in the form of a mutually beneficial subsoil use agreement with the US. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha has offered Ukrainian assistance to France, Spain, and Portugal in overcoming their energy crisis, potentially linked to recent power outages in those countries. Ukrainian sources also report that reported US calls for elections in Ukraine as a condition for a peace settlement have reportedly faded from official Washington rhetoric.

Internal issues within Ukraine include ongoing efforts to restore gas supply in Cherkasy following a reported Shahed attack. Russia has initiated a criminal case regarding the alleged theft of over 240 million rubles during state defense orders by a former Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's Department of Property of Special Projects.

Tensions between India and Pakistan remain a notable international concern, with Pakistan's Minister of Defense warning of potential war within days.

Strategic and Tactical Overview

Ukrainian Actions and Capabilities:

Defense and Counter-Actions: Ukrainian forces continue to defend against Russian assaults on multiple axes. Units on the Toretsk direction reportedly successfully repelled a Russian armored assault, destroying the vehicles and personnel involved. President Zelenskyy states that Ukrainian forces are holding their positions and achieving "especially good results" on the Pokrovsk direction with the 3rd National Guard Operational Brigade. Efforts are underway by 50 emergency brigades from across Ukraine to restore gas supply in Cherkasy following a reported Shahed attack. The mayor of Cherkasy reports that gas supply has been partially restored to the population.
Air Defense: The Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB launches towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, indicating ongoing Russian aerial threats that require air defense responses.
Information Operations and Diplomacy: Ukrainian sources (Operational ZSU, STERNENKO, Zelenskiy / Official, РБК-Україна) highlight the reported fire near Novorossiysk, potentially linking it to a prior "Neptune" missile threat, serving as a counter-narrative to Russian strikes and framing it as a consequence of Russian actions ("Добабахаліся" - "They've messed around and gotten it"). President Zelenskyy directly addresses and rejects Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire timing, advocating for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire for at least 30 days to facilitate real diplomacy, and emphasizing that Ukraine values human lives over parades. He also mentions preparing for meetings with partners regarding peace negotiations and strengthening air defense. The reported agreement on a mutually beneficial subsoil use agreement with the US is highlighted as a positive development. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha has offered Ukrainian assistance to France, Spain, and Portugal in overcoming the energy crisis, which is being reported by Ukrainian sources. Operational ZSU reports that US calls for elections in Ukraine as a condition for a peace settlement have reportedly faded from official Washington rhetoric. BUTUSOV PLUS is seeking support for a petition to honor a fallen soldier from the 72nd Mechanized Brigade who reportedly destroyed multiple Russian armored vehicles and infantry near Vuhledar in 2022. This highlights Ukrainian efforts to honor fallen heroes and maintain morale.
Response to Infrastructure Damage: Emergency brigades are working to restore gas supply in Cherkasy following a Russian attack. The mayor of Cherkasy reports progress in restoring gas supply.
Personnel: Ukrainian forces successfully engaged and reportedly destroyed Russian armored vehicles and personnel during an assault near Toretsk.
Internal Security: The Ukrainian Military Law Enforcement Service (VSP), in cooperation with the National Police and the SBU, has reportedly detained a serviceman for attempting to bribe an officer to avoid military service after being absent without leave since 2024, highlighting ongoing efforts to address internal discipline and corruption within the military.

Russian Actions and Claims:

Persistent Offensive Operations and Claimed Gains: Russia continues ground assaults on multiple axes. Russian sources (Сливочный каприз) claim further advances on the Pokrovsk direction, stating assault units have reached the Bogatyr - Konstantynopil highway and occupied positions at a gas station east of Bogatyr, advancing 1 km north of Razliv. Russian sources (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) claim their assault groups are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses near Hryhorivka on the Siversk direction, reporting Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from positions east of Hryhorivka and Russian forces have liberated southern forest belts. Russian sources (Rybar) claim advances near Vodyane Druhe and Berezivka on the Konstantinovka direction, suggesting efforts to reinforce flanks for a northern offensive. A Russian military map dated April 28, 2025, from Z комитет + карта СВО shows Vodyane Druhe and Berezivka as recently captured territory under Russian control. Russian sources also summarize claimed advances and destroyed Ukrainian logistics on the Velykonovoselivka, Konstantynivka, Kupyansk, Sumy, and Krasnoarmeysk directions, including claimed liberation of Stepova Novoselivka and advances towards Pisky on the Kupyansk direction, and successes near Tarasivka, Vodyane Druhe, and Zelenyy Pole on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. They claim engaging female assault groups on armored vehicles near Shevchenko. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that in the Velykonovoselivka area, two bridges over the Vovcha River were destroyed to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. They also report taking a strongpoint northwest of Sukha Balka on the Konstantynivka direction. On the Sumy direction, Ussuri paratroopers are reportedly processing areas near Bilovody, and the enemy is concentrating additional forces and UAV crews near Yunakivka. On the Krasnoarmeysk direction (likely referring to the Pokrovsk axis), fighting continues in the northwestern part of Myrolyubivka and for hangars, the southeastern part of Lysivka is claimed, and Ukrainian forces were reportedly dislodged from Shevchenko.
Continued Aerial Bombardment: Russia continues to utilize tactical aviation for strikes. Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB launches towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Operational ZSU reports Russian tactical aviation activity on the southeastern/eastern directions with a threat of guided aerial weapons employment for front-line oblasts.
Incident near Novorossiysk: The head of Novorossiysk, Andrey Kravchenko, reports a fire at a diesel fuel tank in the industrial zone of Kirillovka village, which spread to nearby cars and containers. He states there are no casualties and the cause will be established after the fire is extinguished. However, Ukrainian sources link this event to a prior Neptune missile threat warning in the area. Explosions were reportedly heard by local residents.
Information Operations and Political Signaling: Russian sources continue to promote narratives of territorial gains and military successes, particularly emphasizing claimed advancements on multiple axes. Russian sources (Басурин о главном) continue to emphasize the participation of North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast, promoting it as a significant step in strengthening bilateral ties and a "weighty striking force," showcasing their training and the presence of St. George ribbons on North Korean uniforms as proof of their commitment and the "unbreakable military alliance." Russia continues to claim battlefield successes and disruption of Ukrainian logistics (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). Russian state media (TASS) reports on Russia's capability to prevent large-scale power outages in central cities, contrasting it with recent issues in Europe (referencing the power outages in Spain, France, and Portugal). Russian military bloggers (Alex Parker Returns) engage in information operations targeting Ukrainian language and culture. Russia's Investigative Committee reports initiating a criminal case regarding the alleged theft of over 240 million rubles during state defense orders, highlighting internal corruption issues. Russian sources (Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, НгП раZVедка) extensively report on Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's rejection of Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire, framing his demand for a 30-day ceasefire as a manipulative attempt to allow Ukrainian forces to regroup and avoid strategic defeat. НгП раZVедка uses strong, negative language to describe Zelenskyy and his stance on negotiations. Colonelcassad shares a video allegedly showing a Ukrainian avoiding conscription with assistance, and another of a Ukrainian recruitment officer denying rumors of forced conscription, as part of information operations related to Ukrainian mobilization efforts. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a photo with a caption suggesting continuous operational activity ("No rest at night"). Z комитет + карта СВО provides detailed maps of claimed Russian advances, specifically highlighting recently captured territory near Vodyane Druhe and Berezivka on the Konstantinovka direction. TASS reports on an incident where Ukrainian individuals allegedly attempted to provoke Russian hockey player Alexander Ovechkin in Canada with banners. Басурин о главном shares a video of a fireworks display in Volgograd as part of "Light of the Great Victory," likely for patriotic messaging and to contrast with the conflict. Kadyrov_95 reports on a working visit by the Russian Minister of Emergency Situations to Chechnya, highlighting the naming of a fire train after Akhmat-Khadzhi Kadyrov, visits to "Chechenauto" showcasing specialized vehicles for the Ministry of Emergency Situations, visits to construction sites in the "Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin" district of Grozny, and the donation of vehicles, emphasizing cooperation and support for Chechnya.
Internal Security and Corruption: A criminal case has been initiated by military investigators against a former Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's Department of Property of Special Projects for alleged large-scale theft (over 240 million rubles).
International Relations: Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov reportedly discussed the necessity of ending the war and further steps for negotiations with the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, at Lavrov's initiative. This follows a previous visit by a US Special Representative to Moscow. Tensions between India and Pakistan are highlighted by Russian military bloggers (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns), with Pakistan's Minister of Defense warning of potential war within days, and TASS also reporting on this. Russian sources are also reporting on power outages and declared states of emergency in Spain, France, and Portugal, using it to promote the reliability of Russia's energy system. DeepState reports that 742 Belarusian mercenaries have been identified fighting for Russia, with ideological motivation being a key factor for many, and notes that at least 96 have died. This report also mentions Lukashenka's tacit approval and Belarusian laws against mercenary activity.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Axis: Continued intense ground combat with Russian claims of further advances, reaching the Bogatyr - Konstantynopil highway and occupying a gas station east of Bogatyr, pushing 1 km north of Razliv. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports "especially good results" for Ukrainian forces on this direction. Intense fighting continues in the northwestern part of Myrolyubivka and for hangars, claimed Russian control of the southeastern part of Lysivka, and Ukrainian forces reportedly dislodged from Shevchenko.
Siversk Direction: Russian assault groups attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses near Hryhorivka, with claims of Ukrainian forces withdrawing from positions east of the settlement and Russian forces liberating southern forest belts.
Toretsk Direction: Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian armored assault, destroying enemy equipment and personnel.
Konstantinovka Direction: Claims of Russian advances near Vodyane Druhe and Berezivka, with a Russian military map depicting these as recently captured territory. Fighting for Dyliyivka, claimed capture of the "Berezka" pioneer camp, and consolidation of positions in northern Shcherbinivka. Taking of a strongpoint northwest of Sukha Balka.
Kupyansk Direction: Russian sources claim liberation of Stepova Novoselivka and advances towards Pisky.
Sumy Oblast: Subject to Russian KAB strikes. Russian forces are reportedly processing areas near Bilovody, and the enemy is concentrating additional forces and UAV crews near Yunakivka.
Kharkiv Oblast: Subject to Russian KAB strikes.
Novorossiysk (Russia): Reported fire at a cargo vehicle parking area and diesel fuel tank near Kirillovka village. Official Russian reports attribute it to a fire with no casualties and an ongoing investigation into the cause. Ukrainian sources link it to a prior Neptune missile threat. Explosions were reportedly heard by local residents.
Cherkasy Oblast: Ongoing work to restore gas supply following a reported Shahed attack. Gas supply has been partially restored to the population.
Bryansk Oblast: Previously reported as being subjected to extensive Ukrainian drone attacks with significant damage to civilian infrastructure.
Crimean Peninsula: Previously reported as being targeted by Ukrainian drones using a new trajectory.
India-Pakistan Border: Heightened tensions with Pakistan's Minister of Defense warning of potential war.

Potential Future Developments

Independent verification of claimed territorial changes on the Pokrovsk, Siversk, Konstantinovka, and Kupyansk directions, particularly regarding the claims of reaching the highway near Bogatyr, advances near Hryhorivka, capture of Stepova Novoselivka, and advances near Vodyane Druhe and Berezivka.
Further details and investigation into the incident near Novorossiysk, including the official cause of the fire and any potential connection to military activity or prior threat warnings.
Continued Russian air strikes using KABs on front-line and border regions, particularly Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
The complete restoration of gas supply in Cherkasy.
Further diplomatic exchanges regarding a potential peace settlement, particularly following the reported discussion between Lavrov and Rubio and President Zelenskyy's explicit rejection of the proposed ceasefire timing.
Any observable impact of the reported agreement on a mutually beneficial subsoil use agreement between Ukraine and the US.
The trajectory of tensions between India and Pakistan and any potential wider geopolitical implications.
Further reports or investigations into the corruption case within the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Any observable impact of the presence and activities of North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast on the operational situation or Russian information campaigns.
Potential shifts in Ukrainian and Russian rhetoric or actions regarding a ceasefire following President Zelenskyy's statement.
Further details regarding the reported power outages and states of emergency in Spain, France, and Portugal and any potential offer of assistance from Ukraine.
Any observable impact or international response to the reported presence and deaths of Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Russia.
Outcomes of the investigation into the attempted bribery case within the Ukrainian military.

Potential Indicators

Independent confirmation or refutation of claimed Russian advances on the Pokrovsk, Siversk, Konstantinovka, and Kupyansk directions.
Official statements from either side regarding the incident near Novorossiysk and its cause, or any evidence of a missile strike.
Changes in the frequency or targets of Russian KAB strikes.
Progress in the restoration of gas supply in Cherkasy.
Public statements or outcomes following diplomatic engagements related to the conflict, particularly concerning ceasefire proposals.
Any observable actions or progress related to the US-Ukraine subsoil use agreement.
Changes in military posture or rhetoric between India and Pakistan.
Further details or official outcomes of the investigation into the corruption case in Russia.
Any observable changes in the operational situation in Kursk Oblast or in Russian state media coverage of North Korean involvement.
Any shifts in official positions on a ceasefire from Ukraine or Russia, or any observable changes in the intensity of combat following President Zelenskyy's statement.
Further reports or official statements regarding the power outages in Spain, France, and Portugal and any response to Ukraine's offer of assistance.
Additional reports or evidence regarding the presence, activities, or casualties of Belarusian mercenaries in Ukraine.
Outcome of the investigation and any subsequent legal proceedings in the attempted bribery case within the Ukrainian military.
Further information or support for the petition to honor the fallen Ukrainian soldier.

Updated Situation: The conflict remains highly dynamic and intense, with ground combat concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Siversk, Toretsk, Konstantinovka, Kupyansk, Sumy, and Kharkiv areas. Russia claims further localized gains on multiple fronts, including reaching a highway and occupying a gas station near Bogatyr on the Pokrovsk direction, attempting breakthroughs near Hryhorivka on the Siversk direction, and advancing near Vodyane Druhe and Berezivka on the Konstantinovka direction, with these areas marked as recently captured on a Russian map. Russian sources also claim the liberation of Stepova Novoselivka on the Kupyansk direction and other advancements. Ukraine reports repelling assaults on the Toretsk direction and President Zelenskyy highlights successful actions on the Pokrovsk direction. A significant incident is the reported fire at a cargo vehicle parking area and diesel fuel tank near Novorossiysk, which Russian officials attribute to a fire with an ongoing investigation, while Ukrainian sources link it to a prior Neptune missile threat and explosions were reportedly heard. Russia continues extensive KAB strikes on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with the US urging Russia to cease hostilities. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has explicitly rejected Russia's proposed May 8th ceasefire timing, advocating for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire for at least 30 days to facilitate real diplomacy and is preparing for further international meetings on peace and air defense. He also notes a positive subsoil use agreement with the US. Ukraine is working to restore gas supply in Cherkasy following a Shahed attack. Russia has initiated a criminal case regarding alleged large-scale theft during state defense orders. Tensions between India and Pakistan remain a concern. DeepState reports on the presence and casualties of Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Russia. Ukraine's Military Law Enforcement Service has detained a serviceman for attempted bribery to avoid service. BUTUSOV PLUS is seeking support for a petition to honor a fallen Ukrainian soldier. Kadyrov_95 reports on internal security and development activities in Chechnya.

Situation Report