Sitrep 2025-04-28 15:19:55

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 28, 2025, 15:19 UTC)

Executive Summary

The operational tempo remains exceptionally high, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting 92 combat clashes by 16:00 local time on April 28th. This confirms the continued intensity of fighting across the front lines. Key areas of Russian offensive pressure include the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk directions, with the Pokrovsk direction being the most active, experiencing 38 reported Russian attacks. Ukraine continues defensive operations, repelling numerous assaults and highlighting the effectiveness of their counter-UAV efforts. Russian sources claim the liberation of Stepova Novoselivka on the Kupyansk direction, indicating potential localized Russian gains, which requires independent verification. Both sides report significant drone and artillery activity. The Ukrainian Air Force reports KABs being launched towards Donetsk Oblast. Russian sources are showcasing videos of claimed destruction of Ukrainian and NATO equipment on the Pokrovsk direction. Further reporting confirms fighting in the Novopavlivsk direction, with Ukrainian forces claiming to have destroyed Russian logistics vehicles, a motorcycle, and infantry.

The diplomatic maneuvering around ceasefires continues to evolve. While Putin announced a temporary, unilateral ceasefire from May 8th to May 11th, intended for Victory Day, Ukraine's Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Andriy Sybiha, countered by questioning the delay and proposing an immediate, unconditional ceasefire for at least 30 days. This public exchange underscores the significant difference in approaches and is likely aimed at influencing international opinion. The White House has reacted to Putin's proposal, stating that President Trump wants a permanent ceasefire, contrasting with Putin's temporary offer. Lavrov's reiteration of Russia's non-negotiable conditions for peace, including international recognition of its territorial claims and Ukraine's neutral status, highlights the substantial gap in negotiating positions and suggests a low probability of a rapid diplomatic resolution based on current stances. Russian sources are reacting negatively to Ukraine's counter-proposal, framing it as "rude" and advocating for escalation.

Notable incidents include the drone attack in Cherkasy Oblast with reported casualties and damage to a gas facility, and Russian claims of Ukrainian Su-27 losses near the Cherkasy airfield, which they suggest was a base for helicopters and UAVs. The widespread power blackout in Southern and Western Europe continues to be a point of focus, with investigations ongoing. While a Portuguese operator attributes the cause to a "rare atmospheric phenomenon" in Spain, Ukraine has offered assistance based on its experience with Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure, subtly linking the event to the broader context of Russian aggression. Russian sources are providing more detail on the duration and impact of the blackout across various European countries. The European Council head has stated there are no signs of a cyberattack as the cause of the blackout. Geopolitical tensions elsewhere, such as the escalating situation between India and Pakistan, are being noted and commented upon by various sources. The death of a Libyan Brigadier General in Tripoli is also being reported in Russian military channels. Armenia has stated it does not intend to escalate or break relations with Russia. Canada is holding elections.

Internal developments include ongoing investigations in Russia related to security incidents and efforts to control information. Ukraine is actively engaged in information operations, including showcasing the effectiveness of their military units (highlighted by the DeepState ranking based on "combat points") and addressing the complex issues of prisoners of war. Fundraising efforts by military bloggers on both sides underscore the continued logistical needs and reliance on non-state support. The reported creation of the 29th Separate Tank Battalion in Ukraine signals ongoing force restructuring and adaptation. Ukraine's emphasis on cooperation with NATO and Poland through JATEC and training programs highlights their commitment to interoperability and integrating combat experience. Russian military bloggers are reacting negatively to the possibility of Russian-gifted S-300s to Kyrgyzstan potentially being transferred to Ukraine, highlighting concerns about the effectiveness of Russian foreign policy and military aid. A list of alleged Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Russia has been released, including casualty information. Russian sources are also claiming the involvement of North Korean soldiers in combat and are providing them with humanitarian aid and concerts. Internal corruption issues within institutions in Russian-occupied Luhansk are being reported. Humanitarian aid deliveries continue in Donetsk. A Ukrainian ammunition depot in Izium was reportedly destroyed due to a fire caused by Ukrainian forces. Russia is promoting IT sector development and international cooperation.

New Updates (within the last ~30 minutes):

Czech Initiative for Ammunition Supplies to Ukraine: Ukraine has received 400,000 artillery rounds over the past 4 months of 2025 through the Czech initiative. This amounts to approximately 100,000 shells per month (over 100mm caliber). The Czech Republic acts as a mediator, with funding from Western countries. Ukraine received around 1.5 million rounds through this initiative in 2024. Current funds are expected to sustain supplies at a similar rate until Autumn 2025. The Czech Foreign Minister stated that the initiative has reduced Russia's artillery advantage from 10:1 to 2:1, and their goal is to supply 125,000 rounds per month this year. Around 20 countries have joined the initiative, and the US Secretary of Defense has reportedly praised it and encouraged further financial participation. This is a significant update on the scale and impact of international military aid to Ukraine, directly addressing a key aspect of the battlefield dynamic (artillery superiority).
Humanitarian Aid in Donetsk: Volunteers from the "Moscow-Donbas" international volunteer group have delivered sporting equipment to a special boarding school in Donetsk. This highlights ongoing humanitarian efforts, likely with a propaganda component, in occupied territories.
Archival Footage of Russian MLRS Work: Russian source "Voin DV" has posted archival footage of Grad MLRS work by the 69th Separate Covering Brigade of the "Vostok" group of forces against Ukrainian positions. This is likely part of Russian information operations to showcase their capabilities, even if the footage is not recent.
Propaganda Video from Novokakhovka: Ukrainian source "Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights" has posted a video of Vitaliy Gura, head of the Novokakhovka occupation administration, recording a congratulatory message for Victory Day in a park. The video is likely intended to highlight the presence and activities of the occupation administration, potentially with a negative framing by the Ukrainian source.
Corruption in Luhansk: Russian source "Mash on Donbas" reports that directors of eight institutions in the LNR are facing up to 12 years in prison for accepting bribes from individual entrepreneurs in exchange for contracts. The reported bribe amounts are significant, with one director receiving 8.6 million rubles. This highlights internal issues and corruption within the administration of Russian-occupied territories.
Russian FPV Drone Strike Footage: Russian source "Archangel Spetsnaz" has posted a video claiming to show Russian FPV drones destroying Ukrainian positions ("incorrect birdhouses"). This is part of the ongoing information war showcasing the use and effectiveness of FPV drones.
Botulism Cases in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports two cases of botulism since the beginning of the year, one from dried fish and one from a cosmetic procedure (Botox injection at home). This is a public health announcement and not directly military-related, but relevant to the overall situation in the region.
Russian Military Blogger Fundraising: Russian source "Journal of the Paratrooper" is promoting a fundraising campaign for the 7th Guards Air Assault Division on the Zaporizhzhia front, seeking funds for drones (Mavic 3T, 3Pro, 3Classic), drone detectors, radios, and magazines. They have raised over 3.3 million rubles out of a target of nearly 5 million. This further highlights the reliance on crowdfunding for military units and the specific equipment needs on the front lines.
Russian Claim of Ukrainian Aircraft Loss near Cherkasy: Russian source "Fighterbomber" claims that the Ukrainian Air Force "screwed up" and lost a Su-27 near Cherkasy, suggesting it was a base for helicopters and UAVs. This contradicts or supplements previous Ukrainian reports about the drone attack in Cherkasy. The source expresses satisfaction with the alleged loss.
Ukrainian Military Blogger Fundraising: Ukrainian source "STERNENKO" is promoting a fundraising campaign, expressing that they have only reached 13% of their daily target for "Rusoriz" (implying efforts to eliminate Russians) and urging donations for more drones. This is a similar crowdfunding effort on the Ukrainian side, emphasizing the need for drones.
Air Threat Alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force has issued a threat of aviation weapons use in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates potential airstrikes or missile launches.
Russian Coverage of Russia-Congo Relations: Russian source "Rybar" provides a detailed analysis of the improving relations between Russia and the Republic of Congo, highlighting economic projects (oil pipeline, refinery), political support (Congo President attending Victory Day parade), and historical ties (Soviet legacy). This indicates Russia's efforts to strengthen alliances and project influence in Africa.
Russian Reporting on North Korean Military Support: Russian source "ASTRA" reports on a Moscow choir performing concerts for North Korean soldiers hospitalized near Moscow, who allegedly fought in the Kursk region. Humanitarian aid, including food and cigarettes, was also provided. This explicitly confirms the involvement of North Korean personnel in combat alongside Russian forces and highlights Russian efforts to support them.
Ukrainian Reporting on Belarusian Mercenaries: Ukrainian source "RBC-Ukraine" has published a list of alleged Belarusian mercenaries in the Russian Armed Forces, citing the "I Want to Live" project. The list includes personal details and dates of death, claiming the real number of Belarusians fighting against Ukraine could be a record high. This is an information operation aimed at exposing Belarusian involvement and highlighting casualties among them.
Russian Reporting on Mine Clearance: Russian source "WarGonzo" shows a video of sappers using TNT to neutralize Ukrainian "surprises" (mines/IEDs). This highlights ongoing mine warfare and clearance efforts.
Ukrainian Report on Destroyed Russian Logistics: Ukrainian source "Presidential Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports on the destruction of "half a dozen" Russian trucks, a motorcycle, and infantry by the 3rd Mechanized Battalion on the Novopavlivsk direction during a night shift using drones. This confirms ongoing combat in this direction and the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone use against Russian logistics and personnel, including motorcycles.
Armenian Statement on Relations with Russia: TASS reports that Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan stated Armenia does not intend to escalate or break relations with Russia. This is a relevant diplomatic development in the broader regional context.
European Council Head Denies Cyberattack as Blackout Cause: RBC-Ukraine reports that the head of the European Council has denied rumors of a cyberattack being the cause of the widespread power outage in Europe, stating there are no signs of it at this moment.
Elections in Canada: Ukrainian source "Operativnyi ZSU" reports on ongoing elections in Canada to elect the Prime Minister and form a government, noting the leading candidates. This is a non-military political development relevant to international relations.
Ukrainian Ammunition Depot Destruction in Izium: Russian source "Journal of the Paratrooper" claims that Ukrainian forces in Izium caused a fire in a residential building that led to the detonation and destruction of a significant ammunition depot. The fire reportedly caused explosions for a long time and destroyed two houses. This, if true, represents a significant logistical loss for Ukrainian forces.
Russian Promotion of IT Sector: Russian source "Gleb Nikitin" promotes a new international acceleration program for IT companies from Nizhny Novgorod targeting MENA and BRICS markets. This highlights Russian efforts to develop its IT sector, adapt to global market changes, and build ties with non-Western countries.
Russian Video Claiming Joint Operations with North Koreans: TASS has released a video claiming to show joint combat operations between Russian and North Korean forces during the "liberation of settlements in the Sudzhansky district." This provides further claimed visual evidence of North Korean involvement in ground combat in border regions.

Strategic and Tactical Overview

Ukrainian Actions and Capabilities:

Active Defense and Counter-Offensive: Ukraine continues to engage in intense defensive battles across numerous directions, repelling a high volume of Russian assaults and conducting operations in border regions. They are actively defending against incursions and maintaining a high operational tempo (92 combat clashes reported). They are also conducting targeted strikes against Russian logistics and personnel, including on the Novopavlivsk direction where they claim to have destroyed trucks, a motorcycle, and infantry using drones.
Air Defense and Counter-UAVs: Ukraine's air defense forces are actively engaging Russian aerial threats, successfully intercepting a significant number of strike UAVs (40 shot down out of 166 launched). The use of drone simulators by Russia indicates an attempt to overwhelm or confuse Ukrainian air defenses. Ukraine is effectively utilizing its own drones for targeting Russian logistics and equipment. Air raid alerts continue to be issued for various regions, highlighting the ongoing threat, including specifically for aviation weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Force Generation and Training: The reported creation of the 29th Separate Tank Battalion demonstrates continued efforts to build and restructure Ukrainian forces. Training initiatives, particularly the "Captains' Training" course with NATO/Polish cooperation, are focused on integrating combat experience and achieving interoperability. This highlights a long-term strategic focus on professionalizing the military and aligning with Western standards.
Logistical Support: Fundraising efforts by volunteer groups and military bloggers remain crucial for providing necessary equipment, including tactical medical supplies and potentially specialized equipment like river mines and drones. The significant receipt of artillery ammunition through the Czech initiative (400,000 rounds in 4 months) highlights the critical role of international aid in addressing artillery shortages and reducing Russia's advantage.
Information Operations and Diplomacy: Ukraine is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts, presenting its conditions for a ceasefire and responding to Russian proposals (e.g., Sybiha's proposal for an immediate, longer ceasefire). They are using information channels to highlight Russian losses, civilian casualties, and their own military successes (e.g., DeepState ranking based on "combat points," STERNENKO's video of destroyed Russian logistics). Offering assistance to European countries affected by the blackout is a strategic move to leverage their experience and strengthen relationships. The discussion around prisoners of war highlights the humanitarian dimension and ongoing efforts to address this critical issue. Reporting on the White House reaction to Putin's ceasefire proposal (Trump wanting a permanent ceasefire) and the Czech ammunition initiative is part of highlighting international perspectives and support for Ukraine. The release of a list of alleged Belarusian mercenaries is an information operation. Posting videos of occupation officials could also be part of information operations.
Naval and Riverine Defense: The fundraising for river mines indicates a proactive effort to strengthen defensive lines along waterways, anticipating or countering potential Russian attempts to cross rivers, particularly the Dnipro.
Addressing Internal Public Health Issues: The reporting on botulism cases in Zaporizhzhia highlights the challenges of maintaining public health in a conflict zone.

Russian Actions and Claims:

Persistent Offensive Operations: Russia continues its high-intensity ground assaults on key axes, including Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk. They claim localized territorial gains, such as the liberation of Stepova Novoselivka (with Russian sources internally discussing the accuracy of these claims). This indicates a sustained commitment to offensive operations despite reported losses. Russian sources are showcasing claimed destruction of Ukrainian and NATO equipment on the Pokrovsk direction and are using archival footage to highlight MLRS capabilities. They are also reporting on ongoing mine clearance operations.
Large-Scale Drone and Air Attacks: Russia is employing large-scale overnight drone attacks, utilizing a significant number of both strike UAVs and drone simulators. They continue to use guided aerial bombs (KABs) and artillery extensively to support ground operations and strike targets across Ukraine, and are issuing air threat alerts for specific regions. They are also showcasing their use of FPV drones.
Information Operations and Political Signaling: Russia is actively engaged in information operations to control the narrative. Putin's ceasefire proposal is a key political signal, framed as a humanitarian gesture, although the White House has countered with a call for a permanent ceasefire. Lavrov's clear articulation of stringent peace conditions reinforces Russia's maximalist stance. Russian sources are highlighting claimed military successes, alleged Ukrainian losses (including a claimed Su-27 loss near Cherkasy), and using incidents like the European blackout (providing details on its impact) and India-Pakistan tensions for their own commentary and framing. Efforts to control the online information space, such as RuTube's data transfer to the prosecutor's office, demonstrate a focus on internal information security and suppression of dissent. Propaganda efforts are also focused on portraying Ukraine negatively (e.g., calling their ceasefire response "rude") and justifying Russian actions (e.g., calling for striking the Verkhovna Rada committee building in response to claimed Ukrainian involvement in a general's killing). Russian sources are also attempting to anticipate and preemptively blame Ukraine for potential future incidents around Victory Day. Russian military bloggers are expressing concerns about the potential transfer of Russian-gifted S-300s to Ukraine. They are also promoting fundraising efforts for their units and highlighting humanitarian aid deliveries in occupied territories. Claims of joint operations with North Korean forces, supported by video footage, are part of this effort to showcase allied support.
Adaptation and Resourcefulness: While reports of motorcycle use in offensive training suggest potential tactical adaptation, fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers also indicate ongoing logistical needs and reliance on non-state support for equipment.
Border Operations: Russia continues to conduct operations in border regions, engaging in combat and clearance efforts (neutralizing munitions in Kursk Oblast). Russian sources are also promoting narratives about the involvement of foreign fighters (North Koreans) in these areas and releasing claimed footage of joint operations with them.
Cybersecurity and Information Control: The report on RuTube's data sharing highlights Russia's focus on cybersecurity and control over the information environment within its borders.
Diplomatic Engagement: Lavrov's participation in the BRICS meeting highlights Russia's ongoing diplomatic efforts on an international stage. Efforts to strengthen ties with countries like the Republic of Congo are also ongoing.
Internal Security and Corruption: The reporting on corruption charges in occupied Luhansk highlights potential weaknesses and challenges in Russia's administration of these territories.
Claimed Destruction of Ukrainian Assets: Russian sources are claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian ammunition depot in Izium.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Entire Frontline: Sustained high intensity with 92 combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Pokrovsk Axis: Remains the most active area with 38 reported Russian attacks. Russian sources are showcasing claimed destruction of Ukrainian and NATO equipment here.
Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk Directions: Continued significant Russian offensive activity. Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed Russian logistics, a motorcycle, and infantry on the Novopavlivsk direction.
Kupyansk Direction: Russian sources claim the liberation of Stepova Novoselivka and advances towards Pischanoye.
Kursk Oblast: Ongoing fighting, shelling, and clearance of munitions (over 2,770 neutralized). Discussion about the involvement of foreign fighters (North Koreans) and claimed footage of joint operations.
Sumy and Cherkasy Oblasts: Primary targets of the large-scale overnight drone attack (166 launched), with reported casualties and infrastructure damage in Cherkasy. Russian sources claim Ukrainian aircraft losses near the Cherkasy airfield.
Donetsk Oblast: Subject to KAB strikes and fighting. Humanitarian aid deliveries are also reported here.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Air raid alerts for potential use of aviation weapons.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air threat alerts for potential use of aviation weapons. Botulism cases reported. Fundraising for units on this front is ongoing.
Izium: Russian sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian ammunition depot due to a fire caused by Ukrainian forces.
Southern Frontline (particularly along the Dnipro River): Ukrainian forces are preparing to strengthen defenses against potential Russian riverine assaults, seeking funding for river mines.
Western Europe (Spain, Portugal, Andorra, France, Belgium): Ongoing impact of the widespread power blackout, with investigations into its cause ongoing, reported recovery timelines, and the European Council head denying signs of a cyberattack.
India-Pakistan Border: Escalating tensions with concerns about potential military conflict, being commented upon by Russian sources.
Libya (Tripoli): Report of the death of a Brigadier General.
Kyrgyzstan: Discussion among Russian military bloggers about the potential transfer of Russian-gifted S-300s to Ukraine.
Russia (Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod): Russian domestic developments including traffic warnings, promotion of the IT sector, and cultural/humanitarian support for North Korean soldiers near Moscow.
Russian Occupied Territories (Luhansk, Novokakhovka): Reports of internal corruption in Luhansk and propaganda activities in Novokakhovka.

Potential Future Developments

The operational impact of the proposed temporary ceasefires and the extent to which they are observed, particularly Putin's unilateral proposal for May 8th-11th and Ukraine's counter-proposal for an immediate, longer ceasefire. The reaction of the White House (Trump wanting a permanent ceasefire) adds another layer to the diplomatic landscape.
Continued diplomatic exchanges and public statements regarding potential peace talks, with each side leveraging the situation to promote their narrative and conditions.
Independent verification of claimed territorial changes, particularly around Stepova Novoselivka, and claimed destructions of equipment or facilities (e.g., Ukrainian ammunition depot in Izium).
Further analysis and confirmation of the cause of the European power blackout and any potential, however unlikely, links to the conflict or implications for energy security in Europe. The extent to which Ukraine's offer of assistance is utilized could also be an indicator.
The trajectory of tensions between India and Pakistan and any potential wider geopolitical consequences or distractions from the conflict in Ukraine.
Increased efforts by both sides to adapt tactics in response to the effectiveness of drones and countermeasures, including further development and deployment of new drone systems and defensive measures (e.g., riverine mines). The observed use of motorcycles by Russian forces and FPV drones by both sides suggests ongoing tactical evolution.
Continued focus on force generation and training by Ukraine, and the impact of newly formed units and integrated NATO-standard training on combat effectiveness.
Ongoing information operations by both sides, including efforts to control online narratives, promote military successes, and address sensitive issues like prisoner of war treatment. Russian information operations are likely to focus on preemptively blaming Ukraine for potential Victory Day incidents and highlighting claimed successes on the battlefield and allied support (North Koreans). Ukraine is likely to continue highlighting Russian losses and internal issues in occupied territories.
The sustainability of logistical support, both official and through volunteer/military blogger fundraising efforts, for units on the front lines. The continuation of the Czech ammunition initiative at the reported rate is a critical factor.
Further developments or investigations related to internal security incidents or misconduct within Russian forces or in occupied territories, such as the corruption charges in Luhansk.
The potential for increased tension or incidents in border regions, particularly around Kursk and Sumy. The confirmed involvement of North Korean forces here adds a new dimension.
The potential impact of internal discussions among Russian military bloggers regarding foreign policy decisions (like the gifting of S-300s) on public opinion or official policy.
Any confirmed incidents or attempted incidents around the May 9th Victory Day, particularly if they align with the scenarios speculated by Russian sources.
Reactions or statements from Kyrgyzstan regarding the potential transfer of S-300s.
The long-term impact of improved Russia-Congo relations on Russia's international standing and resource availability.
Developments in the Canadian elections and their potential impact on Canada's policy towards Ukraine.
Further public health challenges or outbreaks in conflict-affected regions.

Potential Indicators

Any significant deviation from the announced ceasefire periods, including reports of violations or adherence by either side.
Public statements from international actors (beyond the White House) regarding the ceasefire proposals and diplomatic efforts.
Independent confirmation or refutation of claimed territorial changes (e.g., around Stepova Novoselivka), claimed destructions (e.g., Izium depot), or alleged aircraft losses.
Official findings or conclusive reports on the cause of the European power blackout.
Observable changes in military posture or rhetoric between India and Pakistan.
Evidence of new tactical adaptations by either side (e.g., increased use of motorcycles in combat, deployment of river mines).
Increased or decreased reporting on training exercises, particularly those involving international partners.
Changes in the volume or success of fundraising efforts for military units on either side.
Any progress or setbacks in prisoner of war exchanges or efforts to locate missing personnel.
Further reports or confirmed details regarding internal security incidents or misconduct within Russian forces or in occupied territories.
Increased military activity or incidents in border regions not directly linked to the main front lines.
Changes in the type or volume of drones and other aerial assets being used by either side.
Any observable impact of Russian efforts to control online information space (e.g., RuTube data sharing).
Further reports or commentary from Russian military bloggers regarding foreign policy decisions and their potential consequences.
Any confirmed incidents or attempted incidents around the May 9th Victory Day, particularly if they align with the scenarios speculated by Russian sources.
Reactions or statements from Kyrgyzstan regarding the potential transfer of S-300s.
Concrete agreements or observable progress in economic or military cooperation between Russia and countries like the Republic of Congo.
Statements or policy changes from the new Canadian government regarding support for Ukraine.
Reports of increased public health issues or the need for humanitarian assistance in specific Ukrainian regions.
Further confirmed instances of North Korean personnel involvement in combat.

Updated Situation: The conflict continues with extremely intense ground combat across multiple axes, with Russia claiming further localized gains and showcasing claimed destruction of Ukrainian and NATO equipment, including on the Pokrovsk direction. Ukraine is engaged in heavy defensive fighting, conducting operations in border regions, and launching targeted strikes against Russian logistics and personnel using drones, including on the Novopavlivsk direction where they claim successful strikes against trucks, a motorcycle, and infantry. Aerial bombardment persists with significant drone activity, particularly overnight targeting Sumy and Cherkasy, utilizing a large number of strike and simulator drones, with Ukraine reporting successful interceptions. Air threat alerts are also issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russia is showcasing FPV drone use. Diplomatic maneuvering around potential ceasefires is ongoing, with conflicting proposals from Putin (temporary, unilateral) and Ukraine (immediate, longer), and the White House (Trump wanting a permanent ceasefire). The European Council head has denied signs of a cyberattack causing the widespread European blackout. Information operations are intense on both sides, with Russia focusing on claimed battlefield successes, promoting the narrative of allied support (including claimed joint operations with North Koreans), anticipating and preemptively blaming Ukraine for potential Victory Day incidents, and highlighting claimed Ukrainian losses. Russian military bloggers are discussing concerns about foreign policy decisions (S-300s to Kyrgyzstan) and promoting fundraising. Ukraine is highlighting its defensive successes, addressing humanitarian issues, engaging in diplomatic efforts, and offering assistance related to the European blackout. Ukraine is also focusing on strengthening riverine defenses, ongoing force restructuring and training with international partners, and the significant impact of receiving large volumes of artillery ammunition through the Czech initiative, which they claim has significantly reduced Russia's artillery advantage. The release of a list of alleged Belarusian mercenaries by Ukraine is an information operation. Internal issues in Russian-occupied territories, such as corruption in Luhansk, are being reported. Geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan and diplomatic developments with Armenia and Canada are also noted. Claims of a Ukrainian ammunition depot destruction in Izium by Russian sources add another element to the operational picture. Russia is also promoting its IT sector development and international cooperation.

Situation Report