Sitrep 2025-04-28 15:00:24

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 28, 2025, 15:00 UTC)

Executive Summary

The operational tempo remains exceptionally high, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting 92 combat clashes by 16:00 local time on April 28th. This confirms the continued intensity of fighting across the front lines. Key areas of Russian offensive pressure include the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk directions, with the Pokrovsk direction being the most active, experiencing 38 reported Russian attacks. Ukraine continues defensive operations, repelling numerous assaults and highlighting the effectiveness of their counter-UAV efforts. Russian sources claim the liberation of Stepova Novoselivka on the Kupyansk direction, indicating potential localized Russian gains, which requires independent verification. Both sides report significant drone and artillery activity. The Ukrainian Air Force reports KABs being launched towards Donetsk Oblast. Russian sources are showcasing videos of claimed destruction of Ukrainian and NATO equipment on the Pokrovsk direction.

The diplomatic maneuvering around ceasefires continues to evolve. While Putin announced a temporary, unilateral ceasefire from May 8th to May 11th, intended for Victory Day, Ukraine's Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Andriy Sybiha, countered by questioning the delay and proposing an immediate, unconditional ceasefire for at least 30 days. This public exchange underscores the significant difference in approaches and is likely aimed at influencing international opinion. The White House has reacted to Putin's proposal, stating that President Trump wants a permanent ceasefire, contrasting with Putin's temporary offer. Lavrov's reiteration of Russia's non-negotiable conditions for peace, including international recognition of its territorial claims and Ukraine's neutral status, highlights the substantial gap in negotiating positions and suggests a low probability of a rapid diplomatic resolution based on current stances. Russian sources are reacting negatively to Ukraine's counter-proposal, framing it as "rude" and advocating for escalation.

Notable incidents include the drone attack in Cherkasy Oblast with reported casualties and damage to a gas facility, and Russian claims of Ukrainian Su-27 losses near the Cherkasy airfield, which they suggest was a base for helicopters and UAVs. The widespread power blackout in Southern and Western Europe continues to be a point of focus, with investigations ongoing. While a Portuguese operator attributes the cause to a "rare atmospheric phenomenon" in Spain, Ukraine has offered assistance based on its experience with Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure, subtly linking the event to the broader context of Russian aggression. Russian sources are providing more detail on the duration and impact of the blackout across various European countries. Geopolitical tensions elsewhere, such as the escalating situation between India and Pakistan, are being noted and commented upon by various sources. The death of a Libyan Brigadier General in Tripoli is also being reported in Russian military channels.

Internal developments include ongoing investigations in Russia related to security incidents and efforts to control information. Ukraine is actively engaged in information operations, including showcasing the effectiveness of their military units (highlighted by the DeepState ranking based on "combat points") and addressing the complex issues of prisoners of war. Fundraising efforts by military bloggers on both sides underscore the continued logistical needs and reliance on non-state support. The reported creation of the 29th Separate Tank Battalion in Ukraine signals ongoing force restructuring and adaptation. Ukraine's emphasis on cooperation with NATO and Poland through JATEC and training programs highlights their commitment to interoperability and integrating combat experience. Russian military bloggers are reacting negatively to the possibility of Russian-gifted S-300s to Kyrgyzstan potentially being transferred to Ukraine, highlighting concerns about the effectiveness of Russian foreign policy and military aid.

New Updates (within the last ~30 minutes):

Updated casualty count from the Dagestan boating accident: TASS reports one fatality and four injuries. The driver losing control is cited as the cause. This is a non-military event but adds detail to a previously reported item.
Ukrainian source (Оперативний ЗСУ) recommends the AviVector Telegram channel, described as focusing on aviation. This highlights the interest in aviation-related information within the Ukrainian information space and potentially points to sources of technical or operational details regarding aircraft.
Russian source (ASTRA) reports on RuTube transferring user data (IP addresses, emails, phone numbers) to the prosecutor's office based on suspicious content, even without formal requests. This indicates intensified efforts by Russia to control the online information space and suppress dissent or undesirable content.
TASS reports a statement from Wang Yi on unchanging mutual trust between Russia and China amidst global changes, made during a meeting with Lavrov. This reinforces the perceived strength of the Russia-China strategic partnership.
RBC-Ukraine publishes a material detailing the scale and consequences of the European blackout, noting millions without power and disruptions to transport and infrastructure, while stating the official cause is unconfirmed.
Russian source (Военкор Котенок) comments on Ukraine's reaction to Putin's ceasefire proposal, describing it as "rude" and highlighting Ukraine's counter-proposal for a 30-day, immediate ceasefire while framing past Ukrainian adherence to ceasefires negatively. This is a clear information operation aimed at portraying Ukraine as uncooperative.
Colonelcassad comments on the alleged role of North Korean soldiers in the "liberation of the Kursk border area," suggesting this topic is being discussed and that he is providing analysis on the principles of Russia's interaction with allies. This indicates ongoing discussion and potential information operations around the involvement of foreign fighters.
Ukrainian Air Force reports on the outcome of the overnight drone attack: 166 strike UAVs and drone simulators were launched, primarily targeting Sumy and Cherkasy Oblasts. 40 strike UAVs were shot down, and 74 drone simulators were "locationally lost" (without negative consequences). This provides a clearer picture of the scale and nature of the overnight attack, indicating a significant number of decoy or reconnaissance drones were used alongside strike drones. Affected regions include Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and Cherkasy.
TASS reports on the neutralization of over 2,770 munitions in Kursk Oblast by the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations. This relates to the ongoing fighting and clearance efforts in the border region.
Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War in Ukraine reports on an online meeting with families of soldiers from the 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" regarding the search and release of prisoners and missing personnel. This highlights the ongoing humanitarian aspect of the conflict and the efforts to address the fate of captured and missing service members.
Russian source (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, with the Pakistani Defense Minister describing an Indian invasion as "inevitable" while urging restraint from nuclear conflict. This is a significant development in a separate geopolitical context that could have wider implications.
Operational Command South of Ukraine launches a fundraising campaign for 7,000 anchored river mines to protect rivers, especially along the Dnipro River frontline, from enemy attempts to cross. This indicates a focus on strengthening defensive lines along waterways and preparing for potential Russian riverine assaults.
Russian source (Игорь Артамонов) highlights a Russian project for psychological assistance to teenagers, "Besedka," which received presidential support, framing it within a call for participation in a forum on "Strong Ideas for a New Time" with nominations including "Military and Civilian Technologies." This serves as a form of internal propaganda promoting social initiatives and innovation, including in military technology.
RBC-Ukraine publishes a material summarizing recent statements on potential peace talks by Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin, highlighting the different approaches and conditions.
Colonelcassad reports the death of a Libyan Brigadier General in Tripoli, noting his past role in a 1986 missile strike on a US base. This is a non-Ukraine-related security incident but is being reported within the Russian military information space.
STERNENKO posts a video showing alleged destruction of Russian logistics vehicles (7 cars, a UAZ, and a truck) by Ukrainian SSU "A" CSO soldiers using drones, referring to it as "logisticide" and calling for more drones. This is an information operation highlighting Ukrainian successes and the need for continued support.
Ukrainian source (Оперативний ЗСУ) reiterates that the European blackout was caused by a rare atmospheric phenomenon in Spain, citing media reports and noting the uncertainty of restoration timelines.
Alex Parker Returns repeats the information about the European blackout cause and restoration time.
Новости Москвы reports on expected significant traffic jams in Moscow on April 30th due to holiday travel, providing advice on travel times. This is a non-military domestic detail.
Два майора comments on the Ukrainian response to Putin's ceasefire proposal, calling it "brazen" and questioning why the building of the Verkhovna Rada committee should not be hit with missiles in response to Ukrainian confirmation of involvement in the killing of General Moskalik. This is a strong propagandistic response and a call for escalation.
Russian source "Дневник Десантника" comments on the reported liberation of Stepova Novoselivka, noting that "Tolyk's" (likely a reference to a specific military blogger or source) information on this was the earliest and that his maps are the most accurate. This highlights the internal information environment among Russian military bloggers and the perceived reliability of certain sources regarding territorial claims.
TASS reports on the driver of the boat in the Dagestan accident losing control as the cause. This confirms the cause of the previously reported non-military incident.
Russian source "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" posts a video showcasing claimed destruction of Ukrainian and NATO equipment by the "🅾️tvazhnye" (Brave) group of forces on the Pokrovsk direction. The video is dated April 27th and claims to show tanks, armored vehicles, firing points, infantry, positions, and vehicles being destroyed. This is a clear information operation aimed at demonstrating Russian successes and the effectiveness of their forces and equipment, particularly against Western-supplied assets.
Russian source "Kotsnews" suggests Ukraine will attempt to disrupt Victory Day celebrations, noting Zelenskyy's invitation of European leaders to Kyiv on May 9th as an attempt to overshadow the Moscow parade. The source speculates on potential Ukrainian actions, including a massive drone attack, artillery shelling, or a terrorist attack (even on their own territory to blame Russia). This is an information operation aiming to anticipate and preemptively blame Ukraine for potential future incidents, particularly around a symbolic date.
Ukrainian source ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the White House reaction to Putin's temporary ceasefire proposal, stating that President Trump wants a permanent ceasefire. This highlights a key difference in approach between the US (as expressed by Trump) and Russia regarding a potential cessation of hostilities.
Colonelcassad provides further details on the European blackout, reiterating the "rare atmospheric phenomenon" in Spain as a cause and noting potential recovery timelines (6-10 hours for Spain, up to a week for Portugal), and mentions a possible contributing factor being a fire in southwest France damaging a high-voltage line. The report also notes impacts on banking and supermarkets in Spain and outages in Andorra and Belgium, indicating the wide reach of the event.
TASS reports Lavrov's arrival at the BRICS Foreign Ministers meeting in Rio de Janeiro. This highlights ongoing Russian diplomatic engagement on an international platform.
Russian source "Басурин о главном" announces a program continuing a dialogue on India and Pakistan tensions, specifically asking "What do the short-haired ones have to do with it?" This suggests the program will attempt to link the India-Pakistan situation to other geopolitical actors or themes, likely with a pro-Russian framing.
Russian Ministry of Defense posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian temporary staging area in the South Donetsk direction by a Uragan MLRS, with target data provided by UAV pilots. This showcases the claimed effectiveness of Russian reconnaissance and artillery assets and is part of their information operation to demonstrate operational capabilities.
Russian source "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts a message from Russian propagandist Alexander Kartavykh expressing frustration about Russia gifting S-300s to Kyrgyzstan and concerns they will end up in Ukraine. The message also expresses anger at Kyrgyz reluctance to fight for Russia in Ukraine. This highlights internal Russian military blogger concerns about the effectiveness and consequences of Russian foreign policy and military aid, as well as personnel issues.

Strategic and Tactical Overview

Ukrainian Actions and Capabilities:

Active Defense and Counter-Offensive: Ukraine continues to engage in intense defensive battles across numerous directions, repelling a high volume of Russian assaults. They are actively defending against incursions in border regions and maintaining a high operational tempo (92 combat clashes reported).
Air Defense and Counter-UAVs: Ukraine's air defense forces are actively engaging Russian aerial threats, successfully intercepting a significant number of strike UAVs (40 shot down out of 166 launched). The use of drone simulators by Russia indicates an attempt to overwhelm or confuse Ukrainian air defenses. Ukraine is effectively utilizing its own drones for targeting Russian logistics and equipment (e.g., STERNENKO's video). Air raid alerts continue to be issued for various regions, highlighting the ongoing threat.
Force Generation and Training: The reported creation of the 29th Separate Tank Battalion demonstrates continued efforts to build and restructure Ukrainian forces. Training initiatives, particularly the "Captains' Training" course with NATO/Polish cooperation, are focused on integrating combat experience and achieving interoperability. This highlights a long-term strategic focus on professionalizing the military and aligning with Western standards.
Logistical Support: Fundraising efforts by volunteer groups and military bloggers remain crucial for providing necessary equipment, including tactical medical supplies and potentially specialized equipment like river mines. This underscores the hybrid nature of support for the Ukrainian military.
Information Operations and Diplomacy: Ukraine is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts, presenting its conditions for a ceasefire and responding to Russian proposals (e.g., Sybiha's proposal for an immediate, longer ceasefire). They are using information channels to highlight Russian losses, civilian casualties, and their own military successes (e.g., DeepState ranking based on "combat points," STERNENKO's video of destroyed Russian logistics). Offering assistance to European countries affected by the blackout is a strategic move to leverage their experience and strengthen relationships. The discussion around prisoners of war highlights the humanitarian dimension and ongoing efforts to address this critical issue. Reporting on the White House reaction to Putin's ceasefire proposal (Trump wanting a permanent ceasefire) is part of highlighting international perspectives on the conflict.
Naval and Riverine Defense: The fundraising for river mines indicates a proactive effort to strengthen defensive lines along waterways, anticipating or countering potential Russian attempts to cross rivers, particularly the Dnipro.

Russian Actions and Claims:

Persistent Offensive Operations: Russia continues its high-intensity ground assaults on key axes, including Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk. They claim localized territorial gains, such as the liberation of Stepova Novoselivka (with Russian sources internally discussing the accuracy of these claims). This indicates a sustained commitment to offensive operations despite reported losses. Russian sources are showcasing claimed destruction of Ukrainian and NATO equipment on the Pokrovsk direction.
Large-Scale Drone and Air Attacks: Russia is employing large-scale overnight drone attacks, utilizing a significant number of both strike UAVs and drone simulators. They continue to use guided aerial bombs (KABs) and artillery extensively to support ground operations and strike targets across Ukraine.
Information Operations and Political Signaling: Russia is actively engaged in information operations to control the narrative. Putin's ceasefire proposal is a key political signal, framed as a humanitarian gesture, although the White House has countered with a call for a permanent ceasefire. Lavrov's clear articulation of stringent peace conditions reinforces Russia's maximalist stance. Russian sources are highlighting claimed military successes, alleged Ukrainian losses, and using incidents like the European blackout (providing details on its impact) and India-Pakistan tensions for their own commentary and framing. Efforts to control the online information space, such as RuTube's data transfer to the prosecutor's office, demonstrate a focus on internal information security and suppression of dissent. Propaganda efforts are also focused on portraying Ukraine negatively (e.g., calling their ceasefire response "rude") and justifying Russian actions (e.g., calling for striking the Verkhovna Rada committee building in response to claimed Ukrainian involvement in a general's killing). Russian sources are also attempting to anticipate and preemptively blame Ukraine for potential incidents around Victory Day. Russian military bloggers are expressing concerns about the potential transfer of Russian-gifted S-300s to Ukraine.
Adaptation and Resourcefulness: While reports of motorcycle use in offensive training suggest potential tactical adaptation, fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers also indicate ongoing logistical needs and reliance on non-state support for equipment.
Border Operations: Russia continues to conduct operations in border regions, engaging in combat and clearance efforts (neutralizing munitions in Kursk Oblast). Russian sources are also promoting narratives about the involvement of foreign fighters (North Koreans) in these areas.
Cybersecurity and Information Control: The report on RuTube's data sharing highlights Russia's focus on cybersecurity and control over the information environment within its borders.
Diplomatic Engagement: Lavrov's participation in the BRICS meeting highlights Russia's ongoing diplomatic efforts on an international stage.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Entire Frontline: Sustained high intensity with 92 combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Pokrovsk Axis: Remains the most active area with 38 reported Russian attacks. Russian sources are showcasing claimed destruction of Ukrainian and NATO equipment here.
Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk Directions: Continued significant Russian offensive activity.
Kupyansk Direction: Russian sources claim the liberation of Stepova Novoselivka and advances towards Pischanoye.
Kursk Oblast: Ongoing fighting, shelling, and clearance of munitions (over 2,770 neutralized). Discussion about the involvement of foreign fighters.
Sumy and Cherkasy Oblasts: Primary targets of the large-scale overnight drone attack (166 launched), with reported casualties and infrastructure damage in Cherkasy. Russian sources claim Ukrainian aircraft losses near the Cherkasy airfield.
Donetsk Oblast: Subject to KAB strikes and fighting.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Air raid alerts for potential use of aviation weapons.
Southern Frontline (particularly along the Dnipro River): Ukrainian forces are preparing to strengthen defenses against potential Russian riverine assaults, seeking funding for river mines.
Western Europe (Spain, Portugal, Andorra, France, Belgium): Ongoing impact of the widespread power blackout, with investigations into its cause ongoing, and reported recovery timelines.
India-Pakistan Border: Escalating tensions with concerns about potential military conflict, being commented upon by Russian sources.
Libya (Tripoli): Report of the death of a Brigadier General.

Potential Future Developments

The operational impact of the proposed temporary ceasefires and the extent to which they are observed, particularly Putin's unilateral proposal for May 8th-11th and Ukraine's counter-proposal for an immediate, longer ceasefire. The reaction of the White House (Trump wanting a permanent ceasefire) adds another layer to the diplomatic landscape.
Continued diplomatic exchanges and public statements regarding potential peace talks, with each side leveraging the situation to promote their narrative and conditions.
Independent verification of claimed territorial changes, particularly around Stepova Novoselivka.
Further analysis and confirmation of the cause of the European power blackout and any potential, however unlikely, links to the conflict or implications for energy security in Europe. The extent to which Ukraine's offer of assistance is utilized could also be an indicator.
The trajectory of tensions between India and Pakistan and any potential wider geopolitical consequences or distractions from the conflict in Ukraine.
Increased efforts by both sides to adapt tactics in response to the effectiveness of drones and countermeasures, including further development and deployment of new drone systems and defensive measures (e.g., riverine mines).
Continued focus on force generation and training by Ukraine, and the impact of newly formed units and integrated NATO-standard training on combat effectiveness.
Ongoing information operations by both sides, including efforts to control online narratives, promote military successes, and address sensitive issues like prisoner of war treatment. Russian information operations are likely to focus on preemptively blaming Ukraine for potential Victory Day incidents and highlighting claimed successes on the battlefield.
The sustainability of logistical support, both official and through volunteer/military blogger fundraising efforts, for units on the front lines.
Further developments or investigations related to internal security incidents or misconduct within Russian forces.
The potential for increased tension or incidents in border regions, particularly around Kursk and Sumy.
The potential impact of internal discussions among Russian military bloggers regarding foreign policy decisions (like the gifting of S-300s) on public opinion or official policy.

Potential Indicators

Any significant deviation from the announced ceasefire periods, including reports of violations or adherence by either side.
Public statements from international actors (beyond the White House) regarding the ceasefire proposals and diplomatic efforts.
Independent confirmation or refutation of claimed territorial changes (e.g., around Stepova Novoselivka).
Official findings or conclusive reports on the cause of the European power blackout.
Observable changes in military posture or rhetoric between India and Pakistan.
Evidence of new tactical adaptations by either side (e.g., increased use of motorcycles in combat, deployment of river mines).
Increased or decreased reporting on training exercises, particularly those involving international partners.
Changes in the volume or success of fundraising efforts for military units.
Any progress or setbacks in prisoner of war exchanges or efforts to locate missing personnel.
Further reports or confirmed details regarding internal security incidents or misconduct within Russian forces.
Increased military activity or incidents in border regions not directly linked to the main front lines.
Changes in the type or volume of drones and other aerial assets being used by either side.
Any observable impact of Russian efforts to control online information space (e.g., RuTube data sharing).
Further reports or commentary from Russian military bloggers regarding foreign policy decisions and their potential consequences.
Any confirmed incidents or attempted incidents around the May 9th Victory Day, particularly if they align with the scenarios speculated by Russian sources.
Reactions or statements from Kyrgyzstan regarding the potential transfer of S-300s.

Updated Situation: The conflict continues with extremely intense ground combat across multiple axes, with Russia claiming further localized gains, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Kupyansk directions, while showcasing claimed destruction of Ukrainian and NATO equipment. Ukraine is engaged in heavy defensive fighting and is also actively conducting combat operations in border regions. Aerial bombardment persists with significant drone activity, particularly overnight targeting Sumy and Cherkasy, utilizing a large number of strike and simulator drones, with Ukraine reporting successful interceptions. Diplomatic maneuvering around potential ceasefires is ongoing, with conflicting proposals from Putin (temporary, unilateral) and Ukraine (immediate, longer), and the White House (Trump wanting a permanent ceasefire). Information operations are intense on both sides, with Russia focusing on claimed battlefield successes, promoting the narrative of allied support, anticipating and preemptively blaming Ukraine for potential Victory Day incidents, and internal discussions among military bloggers highlighting concerns about foreign policy and aid effectiveness (S-300s to Kyrgyzstan). Ukraine is highlighting its defensive successes, addressing humanitarian issues like prisoners of war, engaging in diplomatic efforts, and offering assistance to European countries affected by a large-scale power blackout, subtly linking it to Russian tactics. Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan are also being noted in Russian military commentary. Ukraine is also focusing on strengthening riverine defenses and ongoing force restructuring and training with international partners.

Situation Report