Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 27, 2025, 19:19 UTC)

---

Executive Summary

The latest intelligence confirms the continued high tempo of combat operations across multiple fronts, with a notable focus on the Pokrovsk and Kursk/Sumy border areas. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces report intense engagements and inflict significant losses on the adversary. Ukraine highlights the effectiveness of their defense and the accumulation of reserves, while Russia claims tactical gains and emphasizes the role of specific units, including elements of the 810th Marine Infantry Brigade and potentially North Korean forces in the Kursk region. Diplomatic activity persists, alongside extensive information operations from both sides aimed at shaping narratives regarding peace negotiations, territorial control, and alleged war crimes. The ongoing provision of international military aid to Ukraine, as evidenced by the Czech initiative for artillery shells, remains a critical factor. Incidents in occupied territories, such as the reported situation at a market in Horlivka, provide insights into local conditions and the human impact of the conflict.

Strategic and Tactical Overview

Russian Actions and Claims:

• Ground Operations: Russian forces continue intensive assault and offensive actions on the Pokrovsk direction, with DeepState reporting largely unsuccessful assaults but noting difficult situations in areas like Lysivka, Shevchenko-Pishchane, Kotlyne-Udachne, and Uspenivka, where intense battles and significant Russian pressure persist. Russian sources claim tactical advances on the Chasiv Yar direction (outskirts of Stupochky), Kharkiv direction (near Doroshivka, Pervomaiske, Ivanivka), and the Sumy border (breaking through fortifications near Oleshnya, approaching Loknya, and raising a Russian flag in Gornal). Два майора, citing Arkhangel Spetsnaza, claims the complete liberation of the Kursk region, although acknowledging some remaining Ukrainian presence in Gornal and near Oleshnya, and predicting a Ukrainian counterattack in the Basovka area. Russian military bloggers report the involvement of the 810th Marine Infantry Brigade in battles for Kursk Oblast (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны). Russian forces are reportedly using motorcycles and light vehicles in assaults on the Pokrovsk direction (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦).
• Air and Drone Warfare: The Ukrainian Air Force reports continued activity of Russian tactical aviation on the eastern direction with a threat of guided aerial weapons employment and reports KAB strikes on the border of Sumy Oblast. The Russian MoD claims the destruction of six Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea and the Black Sea (ТАСС, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны).
• Capabilities and Logistics: MoD Russia highlights the work of signal units of the 75th C2 Brigade providing communication on the South Donetsk direction, noting the use of ATVs equipped with EW systems. Два майора continues to report on volunteer fundraising efforts.
• Casualties and Losses: Ukraine's General Staff reports that Ukrainian forces on the Pokrovsk direction have neutralized 222 Russian occupants, with 104 killed, and destroyed or damaged vehicles, motorcycles, and UAVs. ASTRA reports the death of two FSB border guards during artillery shelling near Obukhovka, Kursk Oblast, on April 22nd. Два майора, citing Arkhangel Spetsnaza, claims "tens of thousands" of Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the Kursk operation.
• Information Operations: Russian sources continue to promote narratives of territorial gains and military successes, particularly emphasizing the claimed liberation of the Kursk region and the effectiveness of specific units. They are highlighting alleged Ukrainian losses and failures, particularly in the Kursk operation. Narratives about Western involvement in the conflict (historical CIA documents) and the "absurdity" of Ukrainian demands for territorial return are being disseminated. Russian sources are also promoting the idea of internal disagreements or lack of understanding within the Russian command regarding the use of external forces like North Koreans. Narratives about internal Russian affairs and human rights issues are also being discussed. Russian sources are promoting the efforts and sacrifices of civilian volunteers supporting Russian forces.
• Internal Russian Affairs and Human Rights: ASTRA reports the death of two FSB border guards in Kursk Oblast. Два майора, citing Arkhangel Spetsnaza, claims the Kursk region has been "completely liberated" after "8 months and 21 days" of occupation, framing the Ukrainian operation there as a significant defeat.

Ukrainian Actions and Claims:

• Ground Operations: President Zelenskyy states that Ukrainian forces are holding their positions and achieving "especially good results" on the Pokrovsk direction with the 3rd National Guard Operational Brigade. Ukraine's General Staff reports 123 combat engagements across the front lines within the day, with intense fighting continuing on the Pokrovsk direction (42 assault and offensive actions), Lyman direction (20 attacks), and Kursk direction (21 engagements, 4 ongoing). Ukrainian forces have reportedly stopped Russian attempts to advance on the Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Prydniprovske directions. Ukrainian forces are inflicting significant losses on Russian forces, particularly on the Pokrovsk direction (222 neutralized, 104 killed). Ukraine highlights the performance of the 140th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the Naval Infantry and the 27th Pechersk Brigade of the National Guard for holding back superior enemy forces on the Kursk direction.
• Air Defense and Counter-Drone Operations: STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian drone operators are destroying Russian personnel in Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian tactical aviation activity and KAB strikes on the Sumy border. The Russian MoD claims to have shot down Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea and the Black Sea.
• Capabilities and Logistics: Ukraine has reportedly received 400,000 artillery shells through the Czech initiative since the beginning of the year (РБК-Україна, citing Czech Defense Minister). Ukraine is reportedly accumulating reserves in southern regions in preparation for potential offensive actions. DeepState highlights the extensive work done by Ukrainian forces to create the current character of battles on the Pokrovsk direction, emphasizing the need for continued support and resource accumulation.
• Political and Diplomatic Statements: President Zelenskyy emphasizes that Russia is talking about peace but not preparing for a real ceasefire, having resumed assault activity since Easter at the cost of significant losses. He also discussed recent meetings in the Vatican and Rome where partners confirmed their understanding of the situation. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal discussed an agreement with the US regarding subsoil resources, stating good progress and an agreement not to include aid provided before the document's signing.
• Information Operations: Ukrainian sources are highlighting the intensity of Russian attacks while emphasizing their successful defense and the high cost for Russia in terms of personnel and equipment losses. They are promoting the effectiveness of specific Ukrainian units and drone operations. Ukraine is also highlighting continued international support, such as the Czech initiative for artillery shells. They are framing Russian claims of peace readiness as deceptive and emphasizing the continued aggression. Reports and videos from occupied territories are being used to highlight the living conditions and impact of Russian propaganda on the population.

Capabilities, Logistics, and Personnel

• Ukrainian Capabilities: Demonstrated ability to hold positions under intense pressure and inflict significant casualties, particularly on the Pokrovsk direction. Continued effective use of drone operations. Receiving substantial international military aid, including artillery shells. Accumulating reserves for potential future operations. Demonstrated capability to defend against Russian attacks on multiple axes. The performance of specific reconnaissance and National Guard units is highlighted.
• Russian Capabilities: Continued capacity for large-scale offensive operations on multiple axes, with significant troop and equipment commitment. Use of tactical aviation and guided aerial bombs. Utilizing specific units like the 810th Marine Infantry Brigade and potentially North Korean personnel in certain areas. Adapting tactics, including the observed use of motorcycles and light vehicles in assaults. Maintaining communication networks with specialized units.
• Personnel and Losses: Both sides are reporting high numbers of enemy casualties. Ukraine claims significant Russian losses on the Pokrovsk direction and in the Kursk operational zone since August 2024. ASTRA's report of FSB border guard deaths in Kursk highlights the cost of the conflict in border regions for Russia. The claim of "tens of thousands" of Ukrainian casualties in the Kursk operation by a Russian source is a likely exaggeration for information operation purposes. Ukraine's reported accumulation of reserves, potentially involving personnel from mobilization efforts, suggests ongoing efforts to sustain force levels. Reports from occupied territories about the population, including children, being influenced by Russian propaganda are relevant to understanding the human landscape in these areas.
• Logistics: The arrival of 400,000 artillery shells via the Czech initiative is a significant logistical boost for Ukraine. Ongoing discussions with the US regarding financial aid related to subsoil resources are critical for long-term logistical sustainability. Russian military bloggers continue fundraising efforts, indicating ongoing logistical needs not fully met by state supply. MoD Russia highlights the role of communication units in supporting operations.

Ethical Considerations and Compliance

• The intense ground combat and continued use of aerial strikes and guided aerial bombs by both sides raise significant concerns about civilian casualties and collateral damage, particularly in and around populated areas on the front lines and border regions, as highlighted by KAB strikes on the Sumy border and DeepState's description of the situation on the Pokrovsk direction.
• Allegations of war crimes and human rights abuses from both sides, including alleged killing and looting, and reports of the impact of Russian propaganda on children in occupied territories, require impartial investigation and adherence to international humanitarian law.
• Reports regarding the treatment of personnel, including potential issues within Russian "Storm Z" units and the human cost of operations, are relevant to ethical considerations concerning the conduct of war and treatment of combatants and mobilized personnel.

Potential Indicators

• Independent verification of claimed territorial changes and control in specific areas mentioned by both sides, particularly around Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlovsk, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Kharkiv, and the Kursk/Sumy border regions.
• Further information or independent confirmation regarding the extent and effectiveness of North Korean personnel involvement in the Kursk region and any potential impact on the conflict dynamics.
• Observable shifts in the intensity, location, and targeting of Russian tactical aviation sorties and KAB strikes, particularly on border regions.
• Any observable impact on the battlefield from the increased supply of artillery shells to Ukraine via international initiatives.
• Further details and the eventual outcome of the US-Ukraine agreement on subsoil resources, including its financial implications for Ukraine's defense capabilities.
• Changes in the frequency or content of information operations from both sides, particularly those related to peace negotiations, territorial control, and alleged war crimes.
• Any observed changes in the composition or deployment of Ukrainian reserves, particularly those accumulated in southern regions.
• Further reports or evidence regarding the use and effectiveness of specialized Russian units and adapted tactics, such as the use of motorcycles in assaults.
• Developments related to the internal situation in occupied territories, including reports of civilian conditions and the impact of propaganda, which could indicate the level of control and resistance.

Updated Situation: The conflict remains highly dynamic and intense, with ground combat concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlovsk, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Kharkiv, and Kursk/Sumy border areas. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in offensive and defensive operations, reporting significant losses for the opposing side. Ukraine emphasizes holding its lines and inflicting heavy casualties, while Russia claims tactical gains on several axes, particularly highlighting claimed advances and eventual "liberation" in the Kursk region, despite Ukrainian forces reporting continued engagements in the area. Aerial activity persists, with Russian tactical aviation conducting strikes and both sides employing drones. Ukraine continues to receive crucial international military aid, as evidenced by the delivery of artillery shells through the Czech initiative. Diplomatic efforts and extensive information operations remain prominent, with conflicting narratives surrounding peace negotiations and territorial control. Reports from occupied territories highlight the impact of the conflict on civilian populations and the prevalence of propaganda. The continued engagement of specific Russian units and observed adaptations in tactics underscore the evolving nature of the fighting. Losses on both sides, including FSB border guards in Kursk, highlight the human cost of the prolonged conflict. Discussions on financial aid and resource agreements between Ukraine and its partners are critical for sustaining long-term defense capabilities.