Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 27, 2025, 18:49 UTC)

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Executive Summary

Recent updates reinforce the high intensity of ground engagements, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Kursk/Sumy border areas, alongside continued Russian aerial activity. Ukraine reports holding defensive lines and inflicting significant losses, while Russia claims tactical advances and the use of specific unit types in offensive actions. Diplomatic efforts and internal information operations remain prominent aspects of the conflict, with varying perspectives on the potential for peace negotiations and ongoing discussions regarding international support and alleged war crimes. The critical need for resources and personnel is highlighted by ongoing fundraising efforts and reports of reserve accumulation and potential personnel issues within the Russian military.

Strategic and Tactical Overview

Russian Actions and Claims:

• Ground Operations: Russian forces continue assault operations on the Pokrovsk direction, with reports of entering the northern part of Shcherbynivka and clearing the Komsomol microdistrict (Colonelcassad). Russian military bloggers (Slovochniy Kapriz) claim advances on the eastern flank of Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk) and on the Novopavlovsk direction. Claims of advances on the Lyman direction towards Redkodub, Kolodezi, and Zelenaya Dolina persist (Z комитет + карта СВО). On the Chasiv Yar direction, Russian forces claim to have entered the outskirts of Stupochky from the southeast and are engaged in fighting east and northeast of the Dniprovsky pond (Дневник Десантника). On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces claim to have approached Doroshivka and occupied advantageous positions near Pervomaiske (Pershotravneve) and near Ivanivka (Дневник Десантника). Russian forces claim to have broken through the first and second lines of Ukrainian fortifications on the state border with Sumy Oblast near Oleshnya (Дневник Десантника). Russian forces are reportedly conducting active combat in the area of Sudzha, with an attack by a unit of light motorized infantry west of Loknya, Sumy Oblast, resulting in their detonation on a minefield, though Russian sources claim expanding the zone of control in the vicinity of Loknya up to 3 km (Slovochniy Kapriz). Russian military bloggers (RVvoenkor) report the involvement of the 810th Marine Infantry Brigade in battles for Kursk Oblast. Russian sources (Rybar) claim Russian troops have raised the Russian flag in the village of Gornal and are clearing forests along the state border in the Oleshnya area. Russian forces claim to have approached Bohaytyr on the Andreevsky direction but state that the start of assault operations on the village is premature (Rybar). Russian UAV operators are reportedly destroying enemy equipment, personnel, and technical means (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА). Russian operators reportedly discovered and destroyed a Ukrainian pontoon bridge on the Krasnoarmeisk direction (Дневник Десантника).
• Air and Drone Warfare: The Russian MoD claims Su-35s aircraft escorted bombers and ground-attack aircraft in the Yug Group of Forces's area of responsibility, engaging temporary deployment areas and strongholds of the AFU. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation on the eastern direction with a threat of guided aerial weapons employment and reports KAB strikes on the border of Sumy Oblast (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine).
• Capabilities and Logistics: Два майора reports on Russian forces recovering captured Ukrainian equipment ("frontal trophies") to repair and return to the front. Reports of volunteer fundraising for military units continue (Дневник Десантника, Два майора).
• Casualties and Losses: Ukraine's General Staff reports significant Russian and North Korean losses in the Kursk operational zone since August 6, 2024. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the death of a commander from the "Akhmat" special forces, Бувайсар Умханов ("Tarzan"), in a strike on a Russian command post in Kursk Oblast on April 24th. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "Orc Cemetery" implying Ukrainian success in inflicting casualties. ASTRA reports that two FSB border guards were killed during artillery shelling of border positions near the village of Obukhovka, Korenevsky district, Kursk Oblast, on April 22nd. DeepState reports that the number of Russian assault actions is largely unsuccessful, and the ratio of losses to advances is small for Russia.
• Information Operations: Russian sources continue to push narratives of territorial gains, highlight alleged Ukrainian war crimes (looting and killing in Plehovo), and frame themselves as open to negotiations while portraying Ukraine as uncooperative. They are also using narratives about external actors (North Korea's purported involvement and "lessons learned" in modern warfare), downplaying anti-migrant protests in Ireland, and continuing the narrative around the Moskalik assassination and the arrest of Kuzin, claiming SBU involvement. Russian military bloggers are using videos to showcase claimed successes (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны) and are also suggesting internal disagreements or lack of understanding within the Russian command regarding the use of external forces like North Koreans (Два майора). Russian sources are disseminating alleged Ukrainian FPV drone frequencies (previous update). Russian sources are also promoting the narrative that demands for Ukraine to return lost territories, including Crimea, are absurd (Дневник Десантника, citing Trump). Russian sources are highlighting the inclusion of Mariupol and Melitopol on the monument to Cities of Military Glory near the Kremlin wall (Дневник Десантника). Рыбарь provides detailed summaries of claimed Russian advances and strikes across multiple directions.
• Internal Russian Affairs and Human Rights: ASTRA reports that two armed Russian servicemen, one a former convict, reportedly deserted from positions in Plehovo, Sudzha district, Kursk Oblast, on April 22nd. Дневник Десантника reports that the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation has established the circumstances of the alleged killing of a civilian and looting by Ukrainian servicemen in Plehovo, Sudzha district, Kursk Oblast, in September and August 2024, opening criminal cases for terrorism and looting. Военкор Котенок reports the arrest and transfer to a pre-trial detention center of Ignat Kuzin, accused of killing General Moskalik, claiming he was promised $18,000 by the SBU. Север.Реалии reports a rural teacher in Komi was sentenced to five years in prison for "justifying terrorism" over comments about the "Azov" battalion. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the death of the 1064th fallen soldier from Komi in the "SVO" (Kirill Zubkovich), highlighting the human cost in specific Russian regions. The death of two FSB border guards in Kursk Oblast (ASTRA) is a notable incident in a border region experiencing increased activity. Reports of a wounded mobilized Russian soldier allegedly returned to the front without full recovery and injury payment (previous update) raise concerns about personnel treatment. The reported death of a civilian cartographer near a military arsenal in the Vladimir region, allegedly at the hands of the military (previous update), if accurate, raises significant ethical and legal concerns. Дневник Десантника highlights the efforts and sacrifices of civilian volunteers supporting Russian forces.

Ukrainian Actions and Claims:

• Ground Operations: President Zelenskyy states that Ukrainian forces are holding their positions strongly and that there are "especially good results" from the 3rd National Guard Operational Brigade on the Pokrovsk direction (Zelenskiy / Official, РБК-Україна). Дневник Десантника reports that based on the "failure" in the Kursk region, the AFU is preparing offensive actions to break through in several places to relieve tension on the Kupyansk and Sumy directions, and that a significant amount of reserves from "volunteers picked up from the streets" is accumulating in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video implying Russian casualties on the battlefield. DeepState provides a detailed analysis of the Pokrovsk direction, stating that Ukrainian forces are holding the line with largely unsuccessful Russian assaults despite constant pressure. DeepState notes particularly difficult situations in the areas of Lysivka and Shevchenko-Pishchane, and intense battles in the Kotlyne-Udachne area where Ukrainian forces are showing initiative. DeepState also reports a difficult situation in Uspenivka, where Russian pressure has almost resulted in the complete capture of the village.
• Air Defense and Counter-Drone Operations: Ukrainian Air Force reports downing 66 Shahed-type UAVs and 31 drone-imitators overnight (previous update). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming the destruction of enemy technical means by Russian UAV operators, implying Ukrainian drone activity is being countered. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian drone operators are destroying Russian personnel in Sumy Oblast.
• Capabilities and Logistics: Ukraine is reportedly accumulating reserves in southern regions. Continued reports highlight the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone operators (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА implies successful strikes, STERNENKO explicitly claims destruction of Russian personnel). Ukraine has reportedly agreed with the US not to include aid provided before the signing of a new agreement on subsoil resources (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). This suggests ongoing discussions about structuring future US financial support. The widespread Ukrainian technical infrastructure failure (previous update), while not a cyberattack, highlights infrastructure vulnerability.
• Political and Diplomatic Statements: President Zelenskyy states that Russia is trying to deceive the world and drag out the war, and that pressure is needed to stop the war, noting that recent meetings in the Vatican and Rome confirmed that partners understand the situation (Zelenskiy / Official, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). He emphasizes that no preparations for a real ceasefire are observed from the Russian army, which has resumed assault activity since Easter (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). TASS reports Trump asked Macron to leave before starting a dialogue with Zelenskyy in the Vatican (also reported by La Repubblica via Воин DV). Басурин о главном, citing US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, claims the US will not expand sanctions to not hinder the peace process and that Ukraine and Russia are closer to a peace agreement than in the last 3 years, with the next week being decisive for US participation in negotiations. However, Basurin also cites former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba stating Ukraine is no closer to real negotiations than last autumn and Trump saying positions are converging but the situation is fragile. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Lavrov stating Putin's two conditions for a complete ceasefire: no more arms transfers to Ukraine and no use of the ceasefire by the AFU for rearmament. Воин DV reports on various international perspectives on the conflict, including the high cost of Ukraine's recovery, concerns about NATO's strength, and calls for territorial concessions by Ukraine from some analysts. Ukraine reiterates its non-negotiable positions for peace talks (previous update). Ukraine has agreed with the US not to count aid provided before a new agreement on subsoil resources towards that agreement (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), indicating ongoing discussions about structuring US financial support.
• Information Operations: Ukrainian sources are emphasizing their military successes (3rd Brigade on Pokrovsk), highlighting Russian losses, and framing Russian actions as attempts to deceive the world and prolong the war. They are also reporting on diplomatic engagements to demonstrate continued international support. Ukrainian sources are also documenting the human cost for Russia (casualty reports from Komi) and showcasing the effectiveness of their drone operators (STERNENKO). Ukrainian officials are commemorating the Chornobyl disaster, drawing parallels and highlighting nuclear safety risks (previous update).
• Allegations of War Crimes: Дневник Десантника reports on alleged killing and looting by Ukrainian servicemen in Plehovo, Kursk Oblast, based on witness testimony, with the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation opening criminal cases. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video implying Ukrainian forces are inflicting significant casualties on Russian forces, but the nature of the content doesn't directly allege war crimes. Russian sources are disseminating video testimony from a returned Russian serviceman ("Трап") alleging torture and cruel treatment by Ukrainian forces during captivity (previous update).

Capabilities, Logistics, and Personnel

• Ukrainian Capabilities: Demonstrated ability to hold positions under pressure (Pokrovsk) and achieve "good results" in specific areas (3rd National Guard Brigade). Reported capability to inflict significant casualties on Russian forces. Preparation for potential offensive actions with reserve accumulation in southern regions. Continued effective use of drone operations. Ongoing discussions regarding structuring US financial support.
• Russian Capabilities: Continued capacity for ground offensive operations on multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlovsk, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Kharkiv, Kursk/Sumy border). Use of tactical aviation with fighter escort and ground attack missions (MoD Russia). Capability to recover and potentially repurpose captured Ukrainian equipment. Active recruitment for the "African Corps" with financial incentives (previous update). Presence of experienced units like the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade in border areas (previous update) and involvement of the 810th Marine Infantry Brigade in Kursk Oblast battles (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны). Potential integration of motorcycles into offensive operations (previous update, DeepState confirms observation of motorcycle use on Pokrovsk direction).
• Personnel and Losses: Both sides continue to report significant casualties for the opposing force. The reported death of a specific Kadyrovite commander ("Tarzan") is a notable loss for Russian forces. Instances of Russian servicemen deserting in Kursk Oblast, including a former convict, could indicate localized morale or discipline issues. The reported North Korean casualties and alleged involvement in assaults in Kursk Oblast (previous update) and the commentary from Russian military bloggers about their perceived lack of understanding of modern warfare (Два майора) are significant indicators regarding the potential use and effectiveness of external personnel. The reporting of casualties from specific Russian regions (Komi, FSB border guards in Kursk) underscores the human cost borne by different parts of the country. Ukraine is reportedly accumulating reserves, potentially involving personnel mobilized from the streets, which could impact the composition and training levels of these forces (Дневник Десантника). Russian sources continue to highlight volunteer efforts to support troops (Дневник Десантника, Два майора). DeepState reports that the number of Russian casualties is high in proportion to their limited advances on the Pokrovsk direction.
• Logistics: The public appeal for drone donations by Russian units (previous update) and the report of Russian forces recovering captured equipment suggest ongoing logistical requirements and efforts to acquire or reuse resources. Ukraine is reportedly accumulating reserves, which involves logistical efforts related to personnel mobilization and deployment. Discussions with the US regarding structuring financial aid (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) are critical for Ukraine's long-term logistical and operational sustainability.

Ethical Considerations and Compliance

• Continued offensive actions and shelling by both sides risk civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure, particularly highlighted by KAB strikes on the Sumy border and DeepState's description of intense fighting around settlements on the Pokrovsk direction.
• Allegations of war crimes and human rights abuses from both sides, including alleged killing and looting by Ukrainian servicemen in Kursk Oblast and previous reports of alleged North Korean atrocities and Russian abuses, require impartial investigation and adherence to international humanitarian law. Russian sources' active promotion of alleged POW torture by Ukrainian forces is a significant information operation with ethical implications.
• The sentencing of a teacher in Russia for comments related to the "Azov" battalion highlights ongoing concerns about freedom of expression and human rights within Russia.
• Reports of Russian servicemen deserting, especially armed individuals, pose potential safety risks to civilian populations.
• The accumulation of reserves from "volunteers picked up from the streets" by Ukraine raises potential ethical questions regarding the recruitment process and the preparedness of these individuals for combat.
• Reports regarding the treatment of wounded Russian soldiers raise serious ethical concerns about compliance with the laws of armed conflict concerning the care of the wounded.
• The reported death of a civilian cartographer allegedly at the hands of the military in Russia, if true, raises serious concerns about accountability and human rights within Russia.

Potential Indicators

• Independent verification of claimed Russian territorial gains on various axes, particularly around Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlovsk, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Kharkiv, and the Kursk/Sumy border.
• Further evidence or independent confirmation of the extent and effectiveness of North Korean personnel involvement in the Kursk region.
• Observable shifts in Ukrainian offensive actions or troop concentrations in southern regions, aligning with reported reserve accumulation.
• Changes in the intensity, location, and targeting of Russian tactical aviation sorties and KAB strikes.
• Public statements or actions from the US following Rubio's comments about assessing progress on a Ukraine settlement.
• Observable changes in the rate or nature of Russian military desertions.
• Any observed impact on the battlefield from Russia's efforts to recover and repurpose captured Ukrainian equipment.
• Further information regarding the recruitment and deployment of Russia's "African Corps."
• Independent investigation and verification of the alleged killing and looting by Ukrainian servicemen in Plehovo, Kursk Oblast, and the alleged torture of Russian POWs by Ukrainian forces.
• Analysis of the composition and training levels of Ukrainian reserves reportedly accumulated in southern regions.
• The degree to which narratives about alleged war crimes and the involvement of external actors are amplified by either side in information operations.
• Observable battlefield implications of the potential integration of motorcycles into Russian offensive tactics.
• Further details regarding the new US-Ukraine agreement on subsoil resources and its financial implications for Ukraine's defense.

Updated Situation: The conflict is characterized by intense and dynamic ground combat across multiple fronts, including the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlovsk, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Kharkiv, and Kursk/Sumy border areas. Russia claims localized tactical gains and the use of specific units like the 810th Marine Infantry Brigade and potentially motorcycles in offensive actions, while Ukraine reports holding defensive lines, inflicting significant losses, and preparing for potential counter-offensive actions in southern regions with accumulated reserves. Aerial activity continues with Russian tactical aviation and KAB strikes, and both sides are actively employing drones. Diplomatic efforts persist, with differing perspectives on peace negotiations and preconditions, and ongoing discussions regarding international support and financing. Information operations remain a critical component of the conflict, with both sides promoting narratives of success, highlighting alleged enemy misconduct, and addressing internal issues. Reports of personnel losses, desertions, and potential issues with personnel treatment within the Russian military, alongside Ukraine's reliance on reserve accumulation and external financial support, underscore the critical human and logistical aspects of the prolonged conflict. Allegations of war crimes and human rights abuses from both sides remain a serious concern requiring independent verification and adherence to international humanitarian law.

Major Updates from New Messages:

• Continued Russian Offensive Activity: President Zelenskyy confirms that despite Russia talking about peace, their army shows no preparation for a real ceasefire and has resumed usual assault activity since Easter, albeit at the cost of significant losses. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• Focus on Pokrovsk Direction: DeepState provides a detailed analysis of the situation on the Pokrovsk direction, confirming intense fighting with largely unsuccessful Russian assaults but noting difficult situations in specific areas like Lysivka and Shevchenko-Pishchane, and intense battles around Kotlyne-Udachne and Uspenivka, where Russian pressure has been significant. DeepState also explicitly mentions the use of motorcycle and light vehicle assaults by Russian forces on this direction. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
• Russian Claims of Advances on Multiple Axes: Russian military bloggers claim specific tactical gains on the Chasiv Yar (outskirts of Stupochky), Kharkiv (near Doroshivka, Pervomaiske, Ivanivka), and Sumy border (breaking through fortifications near Oleshnya, approaching Loknya) directions. They also report continued advances on the Novopavlovsk and Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk) directions. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad)
• FSB Border Guard Casualties: ASTRA reports the death of two FSB border guards during artillery shelling in Kursk Oblast on April 22nd, highlighting the impact of fighting in border regions on Russian personnel. (ASTRA)
• US-Ukraine Agreement on Subsoil Resources: Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reports significant progress on an agreement with the US regarding subsoil resources, noting key "red lines" for Ukraine and an agreement not to include aid provided before the signing of the document. This indicates ongoing high-level discussions about structuring future US financial support. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ)
• Russian Information Operations - Historical Context and Diplomatic Narratives: Colonelcassad shares a historical CIA document related to the widow of Baron Wrangel, using it to promote a narrative about "white emigrants" working with foreign intelligence services. Russian sources are also promoting Donald Trump's reported statement that demands for Ukraine to return lost territories, including Crimea, are absurd. (Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
• Volunteer Support and Internal Russian Issues: Дневник Десантника highlights the challenging work and sacrifices of civilian volunteers supporting Russian forces, providing a human perspective on the logistical efforts behind the front lines. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Два майора)
• Russian Air Activity and Strikes: The Ukrainian Air Force reports continued activity of Russian tactical aviation on the eastern direction with a threat of guided aerial weapons and KAB strikes on the Sumy border. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
• Ukrainian Drone Effectiveness Claimed: STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian drone operators are effectively destroying Russian personnel in Sumy Oblast. (STERNENKO)
• Russian Unit Identification in Kursk Oblast: Russian military bloggers report the involvement of the 810th Marine Infantry Brigade in battles for Kursk Oblast. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
• Russian Counter-Intelligence Narrative: НгП раZVедка promotes a narrative suggesting that calls to cease strikes on Ukrainian strategic objects are a provocation aimed at helping Ukraine regroup for counter-offensives, particularly in Sumy and on the Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk directions. They also suggest a need for better information hygiene within Russia. (НгП раZVедка)

These new messages provide additional detail on the intensity and location of ground fighting, particularly emphasizing the Pokrovsk and Kursk/Sumy border areas. They also shed light on ongoing high-level discussions regarding US financial support for Ukraine and highlight the continued use of information operations by both sides, including narratives related to historical events and diplomatic exchanges. The reports on personnel losses, volunteer efforts, and potential tactical adaptations (like the observed use of motorcycles) contribute to a more granular understanding of the operational dynamics and challenges faced by both forces.