Sitrep 2025-04-26 19:02:58

Operational Update: Analysis and Recommendations (Evening Analysis Update)

I. Strategic & Air Warfare

Russian sources continue to heavily promote the narrative of Ignat Kuzin's detention and transfer to Russia, alleging his recruitment by Ukrainian special services and involvement in the assassination of Major General Yaroslav Moskalik via remote detonation from Ukraine. Footage of his alleged interrogation and transfer to the Investigative Committee's central apparatus is being disseminated.
Russian Ministry of Defense maintains claims of eliminating Major Yaroslav Paevsky of the 711th Engineer-Sapper Brigade in Zaporizhzhia Oblast via a FAB strike on a command post.
Ukrainian Air Force reports active threats of aviation weapon employment in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
A threat of strike UAV employment in Sumy Oblast is reported, with a UAV moving southeast of Sumy, potentially moving towards Kharkiv Oblast.
Historical footage and commentary on the Chernobyl disaster from both Ukrainian and Russian sources are circulating, possibly linked to the anniversary and used for propaganda purposes.
Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) reported an IED attack on the vehicle of a leading Russian electronic warfare system designer, Yevgeny Rytikov, in Bryansk on April 17-18, resulting in an explosion.
Russian sources claim the deployment of a new drone "Banderoľ" for targeting in Ukraine over several weeks.
Russian sources (Colonelcassad) claim a UAV team of the Dnepr Group of Forces destroyed a Ukrainian Bukovel-AD EW system in Kherson region.

II. Naval Activity

A report (TASS, Operatyvnyi ZSU) indicates three Russian sailors were injured during US strikes on the Yemeni port of Ras Isa. While not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, it highlights potential risks to Russian naval or associated personnel in other operational theaters.

III. Frontline Operations

DeepState reports ongoing battles in Kursk Oblast, despite Russian claims of complete liberation. Russian forces have made advances, with Hornal almost fully occupied and progress in the area of Oleshnya, described as the last Ukrainian-controlled villages in the area. DeepState notes the "Kursk operation" is active with Ukrainian forces targeting Russian logistics and concentration points. Significantly, DeepState, and later Russian sources (RVvoenkor, TASS, Kotsnews), report the presence of Korean (North Korean) personnel fighting alongside Russian forces in this area.
Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, Two Majors) claim Russian forces have completed the defeat of Ukrainian formations in Kursk Oblast, pushing remaining units beyond the state border.
DeepState reports continued Russian attempts to advance and consolidate in Sumy Oblast, with accumulations in Zhuravka and attempts towards Bilovody, as well as consolidation and accumulation in Basivka with unsuccessful attempts to move towards Loknya. Ukrainian forces are reportedly resisting these efforts.
Russian sources (Two Majors) claim the "North" group of forces has pushed Ukrainian forces out of Popovka in the Krasnoyaruzhsky border area of Belgorod Oblast. They also note Ukrainian forces are accumulating reserves on several tactical directions.
Russian sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Two Majors) claim Russian FPV drone operators successfully attacked a bridge over the Velikaya Rybitsa in Kursk Oblast, hitting a support and rendering it unusable, aiming to complicate Ukrainian logistics.
Ukrainian sources (Oleksandr Vilkul) report daily Russian losses of over 1100 personnel, along with significant equipment losses. They also detail Russian attacks in Nikopolsky district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) via drone strikes, causing civilian injuries and infrastructure damage.
Russian sources (WarGonzo) highlight the involvement of the 810th Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet in the border region and the "liberation" of Kursk Oblast.
Russian sources (Two Majors) mention the use of a separate incendiary detachment of RHBZ troops with special ammunition on the "Krasnaya Yaruga" tactical direction (Belgorod Oblast).
Russian MoD videos claim FPV drone operators of the Vostok Group of Forces are destroying Ukrainian assets in Zaporizhzhia direction.
Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) claim VKS РФ destroyed a concentration of equipment and personnel in Huliaipole.
Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) claim Russian "Grad" crews targeted Novodanylivka and Novodarivka.
Ukrainian sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU) report the destruction of three Russian tanks by SSU "A" unit FPV drones, with one resulting in a significant explosion.

IV. Political & Diplomatic Context

President Zelenskyy continues diplomatic engagements in Italy, meeting with Giorgia Meloni (Head of the Council of Ministers of Italy) to discuss security guarantees, peace restoration, and pressure on Russia, noting Ukraine's agreement to a ceasefire 46 days prior while Russia continued attacks. He highlighted constructive meetings with US, French, UK, and German delegations, with a shared position that a full, unconditional ceasefire is the first step to lasting peace.
President Zelenskyy also met with Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission), discussing protecting Ukrainian lives, restoring security, approaching an unconditional ceasefire, strengthening Ukraine-EU cooperation (including ReArm Europe), and the importance of the 17th EU sanctions package targeting key Russian economic sectors as pressure for peace.
President Zelenskyy also met with Cardinal Matteo Zuppi at the Vatican, expressing gratitude for the Vatican's assistance in returning illegally deported children and freeing POWs, and reiterating the importance of returning all Ukrainian people. He also met with Cardinal Pietro Parolin, discussing the path to a just and lasting peace and efforts for an unconditional ceasefire. Zelenskyy thanked the Vatican for supporting Ukraine's right to self-defense and the principle that the victim country cannot be dictated peace terms.
Statements from Donald Trump continue to be discussed. Reports (Operatyvnyi ZSU, RVvoenkor, Sternenko) attribute to Estonian President Alar Karis that Trump promised him he would not abandon the negotiation process regarding Ukraine and that a solution is "quite close" following his meeting with Zelenskyy. Russian sources (Two Majors) acknowledge Trump's statements questioning Putin's justification for striking civilian areas and suggesting alternative pressure but frame them critically.
Russian sources (TASS, Kornilov, Kotsnews, Старше Эдды) continue to push the narrative that Russia is ready for negotiations without preconditions, referencing Putin's alleged confirmation to US special envoy Steve Whitkoff and citing previous failed peace efforts blamed on Ukraine (Istanbul talks, alleged disruption of London consultations). They frame Western statements regarding Ukrainian readiness for a ceasefire as inconsistent with Ukrainian actions (allegedly violating previous ceasefires).
Russian sources (TASS) report a demonstration against arms supplies to Ukraine in Berlin, with counter-protests also taking place.
Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine) report Ukraine has returned 12 more children from occupation, detailing instances of coercion and attempts by Russian forces to separate children from their guardians.
Russian sources (Kotsnews) continue to promote nationalistic narratives, using a poll about a monument in Uzbekistan and highlighting the "Night Wolves" motorcycle season opening, linking the conflict to historical narratives.
Reports (Sever.Realii) discuss the legal aspects of recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea under international law, Ukrainian law, and US law, in the context of potential US proposals.
Ukrainian sources (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) are actively fundraising for the return of 105 Colombian volunteers to Ukraine to fight, highlighting that the state does not finance their travel but that Colombian volunteers have fought effectively alongside Ukrainian forces against "Koreans under the flags of Russia" in Kursk Oblast.
Russian sources (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, TASS, Kotsnews) formally acknowledged the participation of North Korean military personnel in the "operation to liberate Kursk Oblast" under the Russia-DPRK comprehensive strategic partnership treaty. Maria Zakharova (Russian MFA spokesperson) stated they fought "shoulder to shoulder, in the same trench" and their solidarity is a sign of the high level of relations.

V. Logistics, Capabilities & Losses

Ukrainian forces continue effective use of drones for targeting (SSU "A" unit destroying three tanks) and countering Russian drone attacks (Nikopolsky district). Ukrainian sources report significant Russian personnel and equipment losses over the past day (over 1100 personnel, multiple tanks, AFVs, artillery, UAVs, vehicles).
Russian sources are utilizing FPV drones for targeting (claiming success in Zaporizhzhia and destroying a Ukrainian EW system in Kherson), and claiming success in disrupting Ukrainian logistics with a strike on a bridge in Velikaya Rybitsa.
Russian sources (Two Majors) confirm the use of special incendiary ammunition by RHBZ troops.
Russian sources (Two Majors, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, WarGonzo) highlight the involvement of specific units, including the 810th Marine Brigade and units operating in the Belgorod border region, and mention the accumulation of Ukrainian reserves.
Russian sources (Colonelcassad) acknowledge contributions from channel readers in providing assistance to the 36th Army of the Russian Armed Forces, indicating continued reliance on volunteer/humanitarian support for certain units.
Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine) report that Ukraine has returned 12 more children from occupation, highlighting logistical and coordination efforts involved in such humanitarian operations.
Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) mention the arrival of Kazakhstani paratroopers in Moscow for the Victory Parade, indicating symbolic military cooperation and potentially joint training exercises.
Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) reported a mine explosion in Bryansk on April 17-18 involving the vehicle of Yevgeny Rytikov, a leading designer of Russian electronic warfare systems, suggesting potential targeting of key military-industrial personnel.
Russian sources claim the use of a new drone "Banderoľ" in Ukraine.
Ukrainian sources (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) are actively engaged in fundraising and logistical efforts to bring foreign volunteers, specifically 105 Colombians, back to Ukraine to fight, highlighting the reliance on non-state funding for this purpose and the previous deployment of Colombian volunteers in Kursk Oblast.

VI. Counter-Intelligence & Security

Russian sources are heavily focused on the alleged detention and transfer of Ignat Kuzin to Russia, portraying him as a Ukrainian agent involved in the Moskalik assassination and disseminating footage of his alleged confession and transfer to the Investigative Committee. This is a significant counter-intelligence event being heavily utilized for information operations.
Russian sources (Two Majors) claim Ukrainian forces are accumulating reserves on several tactical directions, indicating ongoing intelligence gathering and assessment of Ukrainian intentions.
Russian sources (Two Majors) mention the work of RHBZ troops using special incendiary ammunition, which could have implications for force protection and area denial.
Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine) report on the return of 12 children from occupation, some of whom experienced coercion and threats from Russian forces, highlighting the security risks faced by civilians in occupied territories and the counter-intelligence aspects of identifying and assisting those seeking to return.
Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) reported an IED attack in Bryansk targeting a key figure in Russian EW development, which points to ongoing security threats within Russia targeting individuals linked to military capabilities.

VII. Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions

Ukrainian sources (Oleksandr Vilkul) report civilian injuries and damage to infrastructure in Nikopolsky district due to Russian drone attacks.
Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine) report the return of 12 children from occupation, highlighting instances of coercion, threats, and attempts by Russian forces to separate children from their families and impose Russian education and military registration. One child was reportedly put on a mandatory military registration list, humiliated for speaking Ukrainian, and his older brother allegedly tortured. This underscores the severe human rights abuses and ethical violations occurring in occupied territories, particularly against children.
Ukrainian sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU) commemorate the anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, honoring the liquidators, highlighting the long-term humanitarian consequences of technological disasters.
Russian sources (Two Majors) also share historical footage related to Chernobyl, potentially attempting to normalize or contextualize risks associated with the conflict.
Russian sources (TASS) reporting on a demonstration against arms supplies to Ukraine in Berlin, with counter-protests, reflects differing public sentiments and ethical considerations surrounding international support.
Russian sources (Kotsnews) using a poll about a monument in Uzbekistan with nationalistic framing, and highlighting the "Night Wolves" motorcycle event, represent information operations that leverage historical narratives and nationalistic sentiment, potentially contributing to a climate of intolerance.
Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Two Majors) report on the loss of Ukrainian military personnel, acknowledging casualties.
Russian sources (Colonelcassad) shared a video depicting a scene in the Belgorod border region where a young man was injured by a Ukrainian grenade without a detonator after picking it up, resulting in the loss of a hand, and another individual was killed by a drone. This highlights the dangers of unexploded ordnance and drone attacks to personnel.

VIII. Information Operations

Russian information operations are heavily focused on the alleged detention and transfer of Ignat Kuzin and claiming his involvement in the Moskalik assassination as a Ukrainian agent, amplified with alleged confession footage and details. This aims to attribute high-profile incidents to Ukraine and portray Russia's security services as effective.
Russian sources are promoting claims of tactical successes, particularly on the Kursk border region (claiming "liberation" and pushing out Ukrainian forces from Popovka) and highlighting specific unit actions (810th Marine Brigade, RHBZ troops). They are also highlighting successful drone strikes (claiming damage to a bridge in Velikaya Rybitsa and destruction of a Ukrainian EW system).
Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) claim the completion of the defeat of Ukrainian formations in Kursk Oblast, aiming to portray a decisive victory.
Russian sources (RVvoenkor, TASS, Kotsnews, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны) are actively promoting the involvement of North Korean military personnel in the fighting in Kursk Oblast, framing it as strong allied support under a strategic partnership treaty and highlighting the solidarity between the two nations. This serves to project an image of expanded international backing for Russia.
Statements attributed to Donald Trump are being selectively reported and interpreted by both sides. Russian sources emphasize his reported proximity to a "solution" and promise not to leave negotiations, while also criticizing his questioning of Putin's actions. Ukrainian sources highlight his alleged promise not to abandon the negotiation process.
Russian sources (Kotsnews, Dnevnik Desantnika) are utilizing historical narratives and nationalistic symbols (80th anniversary of Victory, "Night Wolves," "Pansar-fighters from Kazakhstan," Chernobyl) to reinforce national identity and legitimize the conflict.
Ukrainian information operations are highlighting successful military actions (SSU drone strikes destroying tanks, reported overall Russian losses). They are emphasizing high-level diplomatic engagements (Zelenskyy's meetings in Italy, discussions on ceasefire, sanctions, and military assistance), and the importance of the 17th EU sanctions package. Ukrainian sources are also highlighting humanitarian efforts, particularly the return of children from occupation and engagement with the Vatican on this issue. Commemorations of the Chernobyl disaster also serve as a reminder of the potential consequences of conflict.
Reports on the demonstration against arms supplies to Ukraine in Berlin, covered by Russian sources (TASS), highlight differing public sentiments and potentially aim to undermine support for Ukraine.
Russian sources (Colonelcassad) openly acknowledging reliance on volunteer/humanitarian support for specific units provides insight into their logistical situation, potentially framed to encourage further donations.
Russian sources (Kornilov, Kotsnews, Старше Эдды) continue to promote the narrative of Russian readiness for negotiations without preconditions, contrasting it with alleged Ukrainian obstruction.
Ukrainian sources (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) publicly detailing efforts and fundraising for the return of foreign volunteers highlights continued international support for Ukraine and its reliance on non-state actors for certain aspects of force generation.

IX. Potential Indicators

The extensive and coordinated Russian reporting on the alleged detention and alleged confession of Ignat Kuzin is a strong indicator of a deliberate information operation aimed at attributing high-profile security incidents in Russia to Ukraine and portraying Ukraine as a terrorist state.
Claims of Russian advances in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts, particularly in Hornal, Oleshnya, Zhuravka, Bilovody, and Loknya, are indicators of continued Russian pressure and potential shifts in the frontline in these border regions. DeepState's report, corroborated by Russian sources, of the confirmed presence of Korean (North Korean) personnel fighting alongside Russian forces in the Kursk area is a significant indicator of direct foreign military support for Russia and its increasing reliance on international partnerships, impacting the assessment of force capabilities and geopolitical dynamics.
Russian claims of successfully pushing Ukrainian forces out of Popovka in Belgorod Oblast and acknowledging Ukrainian accumulation of reserves are indicators of ongoing fighting and potential future activity in this border area.
The reported FPV drone strike on a bridge in Velikaya Rybitsa by Russian forces is an indicator of their continued use of drones for targeted logistical disruption.
Statements attributed to Donald Trump regarding potential negotiations and his reported promise not to abandon the process, as conveyed by the President of Estonia, are indicators of the evolving international political landscape and potential future pressure points for peace talks.
President Zelenskyy's continued emphasis on a full, unconditional ceasefire as the first step to lasting peace in discussions with international leaders is a clear indicator of Ukraine's current diplomatic position.
The report that Ukraine has returned 12 more children from occupation and is engaging with the Vatican on this issue is an indicator of ongoing efforts to address the humanitarian consequences of the conflict and recover vulnerable populations.
The reporting on demonstrations against arms supplies to Ukraine in Berlin is an indicator of differing public sentiments in key partner countries, which could influence future levels of international support.
Russian information operations leveraging historical narratives and nationalistic themes are indicators of their continued efforts to shape domestic and international perceptions and maintain support for the conflict.
A Russian source (Colonelcassad) acknowledging reliance on volunteer donations for equipment for the 36th Army is an indicator of potential logistical challenges or reliance on external support channels for specific units.
The reported IED attack targeting a key Russian EW system designer in Bryansk is an indicator of potential Ukrainian counter-intelligence or sabotage operations targeting key personnel within Russia.
Ukrainian efforts to fundraise and facilitate the return of foreign volunteers, particularly those who have fought in border areas like Kursk, is an indicator of Ukraine's ongoing efforts to augment its forces with international support and potentially prepare for continued operations in these regions.

Updated Situation: The situation remains dynamic with ongoing high-intensity ground combat, particularly on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk axes (as reported previously), and increasingly significant activity in the border regions of Kursk and Sumy Oblasts. Russian forces claim advances and the completion of operations in Kursk, while DeepState reports ongoing fighting, Russian accumulation, and critically, the confirmed presence and participation of North Korean personnel alongside Russian forces in this area. Russia is actively pursuing information operations, heavily focused on the alleged detention and confession of an alleged Ukrainian agent in connection with a high-profile assassination in Russia to implicate Ukraine and demonstrate security capabilities. Russia also continues to promote claimed tactical successes and unit actions in various areas, including the use of incendiary ammunition. Diplomatic activity continues with President Zelenskyy engaging international leaders to secure further support, sanctions (including the 17th EU package), and emphasize the need for an unconditional ceasefire, while statements from figures like Donald Trump and other leaders indicate potential complexities in future negotiation dynamics, with Russia explicitly stating its readiness for negotiations without preconditions. The humanitarian impact of the conflict, particularly on children in occupied territories, remains a critical concern, with Ukraine actively working for their return with international assistance. Both sides are actively utilizing and countering drone warfare, impacting logistics and personnel. There is evidence of potential Ukrainian counter-intelligence/sabotage efforts within Russia. Logistics remain a factor, with some Russian units relying on volunteer support, and Ukraine is actively working to bring back foreign volunteers. The confirmed participation of North Korean troops is a significant development impacting the assessment of forces involved and potential international support dynamics. The reported injury of Russian sailors in Yemen, while not directly related to Ukraine, highlights potential global risks to Russian personnel.

Situation Report