Archived operational intelligence briefing
Russian sources claim the detention of Ignat Kuzin in Turkey, who was subsequently transferred to Russia. Footage and details of his alleged interrogation are being disseminated, with Kuzin reportedly confessing to recruitment by Ukrainian special services in April 2023 and carrying out the assassination of Major General Yaroslav Moskalik via remote detonation from Ukraine. Russian sources continue to emphasize the purported Ukrainian involvement in this incident, framing it as a terrorist act orchestrated by Kyiv.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims the elimination of Major Yaroslav Paevsky of the 711th Engineer-Sapper Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast by a FAB strike on a command post.
Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of aviation weapon employment in Donetsk Oblast and a threat of aviation weapon employment in Kharkiv Oblast.
Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAV employment in Sumy Oblast, with a UAV moving southeast of Sumy.
Historical footage and commentary on the Chernobyl disaster from both Ukrainian and Russian sources are being shared, likely linked to the anniversary. Russian sources specifically show bombers flying over Pripyat and the Chernobyl sarcophagus from the "first days of the SVO."
Recommendation: Continue to monitor and assess Russian information operations regarding the Moskalik assassination, analyzing the alleged details for inconsistencies and preparing to counter disinformation. Verify the claims regarding the loss of Major Paevsky and the impact on the 711th Brigade. Maintain a high state of readiness for aviation and UAV strikes in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblasts, prioritizing air defense and early warning systems. Analyze the use of Chernobyl-related narratives for their propaganda value.
No new significant naval developments reported.
Recommendation: Maintain continuous surveillance of Russian naval activities.
Intense fighting continues on various axes.
DeepState reports ongoing battles in Kursk Oblast, countering Russian claims of complete liberation. They note Russian advances, particularly in Hornal (almost fully occupied) and in the area of Oleshnya. These are assessed as the last villages with Ukrainian control in the area. DeepState also notes that the "Kursk operation" is still active, with Ukrainian forces hunting and striking enemy logistics and concentration points, and highlights the presence of Korean (North Korean) personnel fighting alongside Russian forces in this area.
DeepState reports continued Russian attempts to advance and consolidate in Sumy Oblast. They note Russian accumulation in Zhuravka and attempts to approach Bilovody, as well as consolidation and accumulation in Basivka with attempts to move towards Loknya (currently unsuccessful). Ukrainian forces are reportedly making maximum efforts to prevent Russian advances and accumulation.
Russian sources (Two Majors) claim that the "North" group of forces has pushed the enemy out of the village of Popovka in the Krasnoyaruzhsky border area of Belgorod Oblast. They also note that Ukraine is accumulating reserves on several tactical directions, indicating potential future attempts.
Russian sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Two Majors) claim Russian FPV drone operators successfully attacked a bridge over the Velikaya Rybitsa in Kursk Oblast, hitting a support and rendering it unusable, aiming to complicate Ukrainian logistics.
Ukrainian sources (Oleksandr Vilkul) report confirmed Russian losses over the past day (1110 personnel, 8 tanks, 5 AFVs, 70 artillery systems, 1 air defense system, 118 UAVs, 145 vehicles). They also detail Russian attacks in Nikopolsky district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), including a drone strike on Marhanets community and multiple drone attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske communities, causing civilian injuries and damage to infrastructure.
Russian sources (WarGonzo) claim to have worked with the UAV platoon of the Air Assault Battalion of the 810th Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet in the border region and that this brigade was involved in the "liberation" of Kursk Oblast.
Russian sources (Two Majors) mention the work of a separate incendiary detachment of the RHBZ (Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Protection) troops with special ammunition on the "Krasnaya Yaruga" tactical direction (Belgorod Oblast), used to destroy buildings sheltering the enemy.
Russian MoD videos claim FPV drone operators of the Vostok Group of Forces are destroying armor, manpower, and fortified positions in Zaporizhzhia direction, and a UAV team of the Dnepr Group of Forces destroyed a Ukrainian Bukovel-AD EW system in Kherson region.
Recommendation: Prioritize intelligence gathering and verification of claimed Russian advances in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts, particularly around Hornal, Oleshnya, Zhuravka, Bilovody, and Loknya. Reinforce defenses and counter-reconnaissance efforts in these areas. Assess the impact of the reported bridge strike in Velikaya Rybitsa on Ukrainian logistics. Monitor Russian efforts to accumulate reserves and prepare for potential future cross-border operations. Continue effective use of drones for targeting and reconnaissance. Document and publicize Russian use of incendiary ammunition and other battlefield tactics. Assess the impact of claimed destruction of Ukrainian EW systems.
President Zelenskyy continues diplomatic engagements in Italy. He met with the Head of the Council of Ministers of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, discussing security guarantees, peace restoration, and the importance of pressure on Russia, highlighting Ukraine's agreement to a ceasefire 46 days prior while Russia continued attacks. He also mentioned constructive meetings with US, French, UK, and German delegations in Paris and London, with a shared position that a full, unconditional ceasefire is the first step to lasting peace.
President Zelenskyy also met with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, discussing protecting Ukrainian lives, restoring security, approaching an unconditional ceasefire, strengthening Ukraine-EU cooperation (including ReArm Europe), and the importance of the 17th EU sanctions package targeting key Russian economic sectors as pressure for peace.
Statements from Donald Trump regarding the conflict continue to be a point of discussion. Reports (Operatyvnyi ZSU, RVvoenkor, Sternenko) attribute to Estonian President Alar Karis that Trump promised him he would not abandon the negotiation process regarding Ukraine and that a solution is "quite close" following his meeting with Zelenskyy. Russian sources (Two Majors) acknowledge Trump's statements questioning Putin's justification for striking civilian areas and suggesting alternative pressure but frame them critically.
Russian sources (TASS) report a demonstration against arms supplies to Ukraine in Berlin, with counter-protests also taking place, reflecting differing public sentiments in a key partner country.
Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine) report Ukraine has returned 12 more children from occupation, detailing instances of coercion and attempts by Russian forces to separate children from their guardians. President Zelenskyy also met with Cardinal Matteo Zuppi at the Vatican, expressing gratitude for the Vatican's assistance in returning illegally deported Ukrainian children and freeing prisoners of war, and reiterating the importance of returning all Ukrainian people.
Russian sources (Kotsnews) continue to promote a nationalistic narrative, using a poll about a monument in Uzbekistan to suggest perceived historical slights and anti-Western sentiment. Russian sources (Kotsnews) also highlight the opening of the motorcycle season by the "Night Wolves" dedicated to the 80th anniversary of Victory, linking the current conflict to historical narratives.
Reports (Sever.Realii) discuss the legal aspects of recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea under international law, Ukrainian law, and US law, in the context of potential US proposals.
Recommendation: Continue high-level diplomatic efforts to secure further military assistance (especially air defense) and sanctions against Russia, emphasizing the humanitarian impact of Russian actions and the need for an unconditional ceasefire. Leverage statements from international leaders critical of Russian actions. Publicize instances of illegal deportation and coercion of Ukrainian children and continue efforts for their return. Monitor political developments and public sentiment in partner countries. Counter Russian information operations utilizing historical narratives and nationalistic themes.
Ukrainian forces continue effective use of drones for targeting, including against Russian armor (SSU "A" unit destroying three tanks, one detonating) and potentially against logistical targets (claimed FPV strike on a bridge in Kursk Oblast). Ukrainian forces in Nikopolsky district are actively countering Russian drone attacks. Ukrainian sources report significant Russian personnel and equipment losses over the past day (over 1100 personnel, multiple tanks, AFVs, artillery, UAVs, vehicles).
Russian sources are utilizing FPV drones for targeting (claiming success in Zaporizhzhia and destroying a Ukrainian EW system in Kherson). Russian sources (Two Majors) confirm the use of special incendiary ammunition by RHBZ troops. Russian sources (Two Majors, Arkhangel Spetsnaza) highlight the involvement of specific units, including the 810th Marine Brigade and units operating in the Belgorod border region, and mention the accumulation of Ukrainian reserves.
Russian sources (Colonelcassad) acknowledge contributions from channel readers in providing assistance to the 36th Army of the Russian Armed Forces, indicating continued reliance on volunteer/humanitarian support for certain units.
Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine) report that Ukraine has returned 12 more children from occupation, highlighting logistical and coordination efforts involved in such humanitarian operations.
Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) mention the arrival of Kazakhstani paratroopers in Moscow for the Victory Parade, indicating symbolic military cooperation and potentially joint training exercises.
Recommendation: Continue to invest in and expand Ukraine's domestic drone production and operator training programs. Prioritize the development and deployment of effective counter-drone measures. Document and publicize Russian equipment losses. Analyze Russian logistics and resupply efforts, particularly regarding reliance on volunteer support and the use of specialized ammunition. Continue efforts to return illegally deported Ukrainian children. Monitor symbolic military cooperation between Russia and other countries.
Russian sources are heavily focused on the alleged detention and transfer of Ignat Kuzin to Russia, portraying him as a Ukrainian agent involved in the Moskalik assassination and disseminating footage of his alleged confession. Russian sources (TASS) show footage of Kuzin being delivered to the central apparatus of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation. Russian sources (Tsaplienko, ASTRA) report his detention in Turkey and handover to Russia, and present details from his alleged interrogation, including recruitment and plot execution.
Russian sources (Two Majors) claim Ukrainian forces are accumulating reserves on several tactical directions, indicating ongoing intelligence gathering and assessment of Ukrainian intentions.
Russian sources (Two Majors) mention the work of RHBZ troops using special incendiary ammunition, which could have implications for force protection and area denial.
Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine) report on the return of 12 children from occupation, some of whom experienced coercion and threats from Russian forces, highlighting the security risks faced by civilians in occupied territories and the counter-intelligence aspects of identifying and assisting those seeking to return.
Recommendation: Monitor Russian reporting on the Moskalik assassination and Kuzin's alleged role for further details and inconsistencies, and be prepared to counter potential disinformation. Assess the credibility of Russian claims regarding Ukrainian intelligence involvement. Maintain vigilance regarding potential Russian intelligence activities and sabotage efforts within Ukraine. Continue efforts to identify and assist civilians in occupied territories seeking to return.
Ukrainian sources (Oleksandr Vilkul) report civilian injuries and damage to infrastructure in Nikopolsky district due to Russian drone attacks.
Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraine) report the return of 12 children from occupation, highlighting instances of coercion, threats, and attempts by Russian forces to separate children from their families and impose Russian education and military registration. One child was reportedly put on a mandatory military registration list, humiliated for speaking Ukrainian, and his older brother allegedly tortured. This underscores the severe human rights abuses and ethical violations occurring in occupied territories, particularly against children.
Ukrainian sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU) commemorate the anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, honoring the liquidators who sacrificed their health and lives, highlighting the long-term humanitarian consequences of technological disasters and, by implication, the potential risks associated with military actions near critical infrastructure.
Russian sources (Two Majors) also share historical footage related to Chernobyl, framing it within the context of the "first days of the SVO" and potentially attempting to normalize or contextualize the risks associated with the conflict.
Russian sources (TASS) reporting on a demonstration against arms supplies to Ukraine in Berlin, with counter-protests, reflects differing public sentiments and ethical considerations surrounding international support for Ukraine.
Russian sources (Kotsnews) using a poll about a monument in Uzbekistan with nationalistic framing, and highlighting the "Night Wolves" motorcycle event dedicated to the 80th anniversary of Victory, represent information operations that leverage historical narratives and nationalistic sentiment, which can contribute to a climate of intolerance and potentially fuel conflict.
Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Two Majors) report on the loss of Ukrainian military personnel, acknowledging casualties on the battlefield, which is a somber reality of armed conflict.
Ukrainian efforts to return children from occupation and engage with the Vatican on this issue highlight the humanitarian imperative of addressing the impact of the conflict on vulnerable populations.
Recommendation: Continue to meticulously document all instances of civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations. Continue to highlight the human cost of the conflict and the specific human rights abuses occurring in occupied territories, particularly against children. Leverage diplomatic channels to advocate for the return of illegally deported children and the protection of civilians. Counter ethically questionable narratives from Russian sources, including those that trivialize the impact of conflict or promote intolerance.
Russian information operations are heavily focused on the alleged detention and transfer of Ignat Kuzin and claiming his involvement in the Moskalik assassination as a Ukrainian agent. Multiple Russian sources (TASS, ASTRA, Tsaplienko) are amplifying this narrative with alleged confession footage and details of the plot. This aims to attribute high-profile incidents in Russia to Ukraine and demonstrate Russian security effectiveness.
Russian sources are promoting claims of tactical successes, particularly on the Kursk border region (claiming "liberation" and pushing out Ukrainian forces from Popovka) and highlighting specific unit actions (810th Marine Brigade, RHBZ troops). They are also highlighting successful drone strikes (claiming damage to a bridge in Velikaya Rybitsa and destruction of a Ukrainian EW system).
Statements from Donald Trump are being selectively reported and interpreted by both sides to support their narratives regarding potential negotiations and international support dynamics. Russian sources emphasize his questioning of Putin's actions against civilians and suggestion of alternative pressure, while also acknowledging his reported proximity to a "solution" and promise not to leave negotiations.
Russian sources (Kotsnews, Dnevnik Desantnika) are utilizing historical narratives and nationalistic symbols (80th anniversary of Victory, "Night Wolves," "Pansar-fighters from Kazakhstan" at the Victory Parade) to reinforce national identity, legitimize the conflict, and garner public support.
Ukrainian information operations are highlighting successful military actions (SSU drone strikes destroying tanks, reported overall Russian losses). They are emphasizing high-level diplomatic engagements (Zelenskyy's meetings in Italy, discussions on ceasefire, sanctions, and military assistance), and the importance of the 17th EU sanctions package. Ukrainian sources are also highlighting humanitarian efforts, particularly the return of children from occupation and engagement with the Vatican on this issue. Commemorations of the Chernobyl disaster also serve to remind of the potential consequences of the conflict.
Reports on the demonstration against arms supplies to Ukraine in Berlin, covered by Russian sources (TASS), highlight differing public sentiments and potentially serve to undermine support for Ukraine in key partner countries.
Russian sources (Colonelcassad) openly acknowledging reliance on volunteer/humanitarian support for specific units also provides insight into their logistical situation, although it may be framed to encourage further donations.
Recommendation: Actively counter Russian disinformation regarding the Moskalik assassination and alleged Ukrainian involvement. Continue to publicize Ukrainian military successes, the need for international military assistance, and the humanitarian impact of Russian actions. Leverage diplomatic engagements to reinforce support and counter Russian narratives. Document and publicize Russian use of problematic tactics and human rights abuses. Monitor and counter Russian information operations utilizing historical narratives and nationalistic themes.
The extensive and coordinated reporting by Russian sources on the alleged detention and alleged confession of Ignat Kuzin is a strong indicator of a deliberate information operation aimed at attributing high-profile security incidents in Russia to Ukraine and portraying Ukraine as a terrorist state.
Claims of Russian advances in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts, particularly in Hornal, Oleshnya, Zhuravka, Bilovody, and Loknya, are indicators of continued Russian pressure and potential shifts in the frontline in these border regions. DeepState's report of the presence of Korean (North Korean) personnel fighting alongside Russian forces in the Kursk area is a significant indicator of potential direct foreign military support for Russia in this conflict, although the scale and nature of this involvement require further verification.
Russian claims of successfully pushing Ukrainian forces out of Popovka in Belgorod Oblast and acknowledging Ukrainian accumulation of reserves are indicators of ongoing fighting and potential future activity in this border area.
The reported FPV drone strike on a bridge in Velikaya Rybitsa by Russian forces is an indicator of their continued use of drones for targeted logistical disruption.
Statements attributed to Donald Trump regarding potential negotiations and his reported promise not to abandon the process, as conveyed by the President of Estonia, are indicators of the evolving international political landscape and potential future pressure points for peace talks.
President Zelenskyy's continued emphasis on a full, unconditional ceasefire as the first step to lasting peace in discussions with international leaders is a clear indicator of Ukraine's current diplomatic position.
The report that Ukraine has returned 12 more children from occupation and is engaging with the Vatican on this issue is an indicator of ongoing efforts to address the humanitarian consequences of the conflict and recover vulnerable populations.
The reporting on demonstrations against arms supplies to Ukraine in Berlin is an indicator of differing public sentiments in key partner countries, which could influence future levels of international support.
Russian information operations leveraging historical narratives and nationalistic themes are indicators of their continued efforts to shape domestic and international perceptions and maintain support for the conflict.
A Russian source (Colonelcassad) acknowledging reliance on volunteer donations for equipment for the 36th Army is an indicator of potential logistical challenges or reliance on external support channels for specific units.
Updated Situation: The situation remains dynamic with ongoing high-intensity ground combat, particularly on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk axes (as reported previously), and increasingly significant activity in the border regions of Kursk and Sumy Oblasts, where Russian forces claim advances and DeepState reports ongoing fighting and Russian accumulation, noting the potential presence of North Korean personnel. Russia is actively pursuing information operations, heavily focused on the alleged detention and confession of an alleged Ukrainian agent in connection with a high-profile assassination in Russia to implicate Ukraine and demonstrate security capabilities. Russia also continues to promote claimed tactical successes and unit actions in various areas. Diplomatic activity continues with President Zelenskyy engaging international leaders to secure further support, sanctions (including the 17th EU package), and emphasize the need for an unconditional ceasefire, while statements from figures like Donald Trump and other leaders indicate potential complexities in future negotiation dynamics. The humanitarian impact of the conflict, particularly on children in occupied territories, remains a critical concern, with Ukraine actively working for their return. Both sides are actively utilizing and countering drone warfare, and logistics remain a factor, with some Russian units relying on volunteer support. Information operations from both sides leverage various narratives, including historical and nationalistic themes. The report of Kazakhstani paratroopers arriving in Moscow for the Victory Parade indicates symbolic military cooperation.
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