Archived operational intelligence briefing
Russian sources report the detention of Ignat Kuzin, an alleged agent of Ukrainian special services, claiming he was recruited in April 2023 and that the explosive device used to kill Major General Yaroslav Moskalik was detonated remotely from Ukraine. Further details from the alleged interrogation claim Kuzin arrived in Moscow in September 2023, occupied an apartment paid for by his handler in November 2024, purchased the vehicle used in the attack in February 2025, and retrieved the explosive device and video camera from a cache in late February 2025. Russian sources claim the explosive device was composed of TNT blocks, bolts, and nails. Colonelcassad showcases video of the alleged detention and interrogation. Russian sources (WarGonzo, RVvoenkor, Kotsnews) are actively disseminating this narrative.
Russian sources (Colonelcassad) claim the use of a FAB-3000 with UMPK by Russian aviation to strike a concentration of Ukrainian reserves in a forest area south of Myropillya, Sumy Oblast, claiming significant Ukrainian losses.
Russian sources (MoD Russia) claim FPV drone teams of the "Zapad" group of forces destroyed a Ukrainian T-72 tank in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian sources (RVvoenkor) claim Russian forces are destroying military equipment, strongholds, basing points, and troop concentrations in Chernihiv Oblast to prevent Ukrainian force buildup near the border.
Russian Ministry of Defense Minister Belousov reportedly visited the command post of the "Kursk" group, received a report on operations, and issued new tasks.
Recommendation: Continue to monitor Russian claims regarding the Moskalik assassination, including the alleged detention and details of the plot. Assess the strategic implications of Russian FAB-3000 strikes, particularly in border regions like Sumy Oblast. Continue to prioritize counter-drone and air defense measures in border regions and areas under active Russian aerial attack. Analyze Russian reporting on operations in Chernihiv Oblast. Monitor Russian command visits for indicators of operational focus.
No new significant naval developments were reported.
Recommendation: Continue uninterrupted surveillance of Russian naval forces.
Intense ground combat continues on multiple axes.
Russian sources (Военкор Котенок) provide detailed claims of Russian advances on the Toretsk direction, stating units have pushed from Dachne along the railway to Dyliivka station, are fighting in Dyliivka settlement, have advanced east of the Balamutka river north of Druzhba towards Dyliivka, and are fighting for a pioneer camp west of the first Dyliivsky pond north of Krymske. They claim units of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division have entered the southern part of Staraya Nikolayevka, and units of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division continue fighting northwest and west of Sukha Balka attacking towards Staraya Nikolayevka and Romanovka. They report Ukrainian counterattacks and fierce fighting in contested areas including the northern part of Tarasivka, north of Zelenoye Pole, Aleksandropol, Beryozovka, and the southwestern outskirts of Dzerzhinsk, Shcherbinovka, and Novospasskoye (Petrovka).
Russian sources (Военкор Котенок) also provide details of ongoing assaults on the Pokrovsk direction, claiming units of the "Center" group of forces are continuing the assault on Kotlyarivka, with Ukrainian forces attempting to hold the advance with drone strikes. They claim Russian artillery and drone operators are targeting Ukrainian positions in the village and westward in tree lines (mortars, UAV control points, AGS), from which Ukrainian forces are shelling Russian assault groups. They also claim Russian units are attacking the eastern outskirts of Troitske, have advanced into tree lines north of Nadezhdynka towards Novoaleksandrivka and captured two positions in the Shumilova gully, and are fighting for the central street in Uspenivka.
Ukrainian sources (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) share footage of the SSU "A" unit successfully destroying three Russian tanks with drones. Ukrainian sources (Оперативний ЗСУ) share footage of an FPV drone strike on a Russian soldier hiding under a destroyed tank, resulting in a mine detonation and the soldier's death. Ukrainian sources (STERNENKO) share video of "Bombus Group" destroying various Russian vehicles (bus, vans, cars, motorcycles) in Kursk Oblast using drones.
Russian sources (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) are promoting the narrative of the "liberation" of the Kursk border region as a significant victory.
Recommendation: Prioritize intelligence collection and analysis on claimed Russian advances on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk axes, particularly around Dyliivka, Staraya Nikolayevka, Sukha Balka, Kotlyarivka, Troitske, and Uspenivka. Reinforce defenses in these areas as needed. Continue to utilize drone capabilities for both reconnaissance and targeting Russian armor and personnel. Assess the effectiveness of Russian advances and Ukrainian counter-actions. Monitor the situation in the Kursk border region.
Reports continue to emerge regarding President Zelenskyy's diplomatic engagements in Rome. Donald Trump reportedly stated on his social media platform that there was no reason for Putin to strike civilian areas and questioned if Putin "doesn't want to stop the war," suggesting alternative pressure methods, potentially through "banking" or "secondary sanctions." This statement was reportedly made after his brief meeting with Zelenskyy. President of Estonia, Alar Karis, reportedly stated that Trump promised him he would not withdraw from negotiations regarding Ukraine and said they are "quite close to a solution" after meeting with Zelenskyy.
President Zelenskyy met with President Emmanuel Macron, discussing the path to a full, unconditional ceasefire and the need for pressure on Russia. Zelenskyy informed Macron about the consequences of recent Russian attacks on Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, and Kyiv, emphasizing the critical need for strengthened air defense.
Russian sources (Colonelcassad) quote Maria Zakharova stating that following Kursk, all territories under Kyiv's control will be "liberated," underscoring Russia's maximalist goals. Russian sources (Басурин о главном) are promoting discussions about Ukrainian politicians.
Recommendation: Continue to monitor and analyze statements from international leaders regarding potential peace negotiations and support for Ukraine. Leverage statements by figures like Trump that are critical of Russian actions. Continue high-level diplomatic engagement to secure further air defense and other necessary military assistance. Publicize Russian statements like Zakharova's to highlight their aggressive intentions.
Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate effective use of drones for targeting Russian armor and personnel, as seen in the destruction of three tanks by the SSU "A" unit and the FPV drone strike on a Russian soldier near mines. Ukrainian forces are also actively engaged in countering Russian drone activity, as highlighted by fundraising efforts for training personnel in counter-drone tactics (Colonelcassad).
Russian sources (Colonelcassad) are actively fundraising for training and equipment for counter-drone operations, including training on engaging drones from vehicles. This indicates the significant threat posed by Ukrainian UAVs and the Russian efforts to adapt. Russian sources showcase the use of FAB-3000 with UMPK, indicating the continued use of heavy aerial ordnance. Russian sources highlight visits by high-ranking officials like Defense Minister Belousov to frontline command posts, potentially indicating focus on specific operational areas and resource allocation.
Ukrainian sources (STERNENKO) showcase successful drone strikes on a variety of Russian transport vehicles in Kursk Oblast, highlighting continued Ukrainian activity and effectiveness in border regions.
Recommendation: Continue to invest in and expand Ukraine's domestic drone production and operator training programs. Prioritize the development and deployment of effective counter-drone measures, including electronic warfare and training for mobile counter-drone teams. Document and publicize Russian equipment losses. Analyze Russian logistics and resupply efforts, particularly regarding heavy aerial munitions like FAB-3000.
Russian sources (FSB, TASS, WarGonzo, RVvoenkor, Kotsnews) are extensively reporting on the alleged detention and investigation of Ignat Kuzin, claiming he was a Ukrainian agent responsible for the assassination of Major General Yaroslav Moskalik. They claim he was recruited in Ukraine, operated in Moscow, and that the attack was remotely detonated from Ukraine. They highlight details of the alleged plot, including the composition of the explosive device and the surveillance conducted. Russian sources claim Kuzin was detained after attempting to flee to Turkey.
Russian sources continue to promote narratives about alleged Ukrainian provocations and crimes.
Recommendation: Monitor Russian reporting on the Moskalik assassination for further details or inconsistencies. Assess the credibility of Russian claims regarding the alleged plot and the involvement of Ukrainian special services. Be prepared to counter Russian disinformation surrounding this event. Maintain vigilance regarding potential Russian intelligence activities and sabotage efforts.
While no new civilian casualties were reported in the latest messages, previous reports from earlier in the day and yesterday detail significant civilian fatalities and injuries from Russian strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kyiv, and Kostiantynivka. The continued fighting on various axes, as detailed by Russian sources, indicates a high risk of further civilian harm in these areas.
Ukrainian sources (Оперативний ЗСУ) share graphic footage of a Russian soldier being killed by a drone strike near anti-tank mines, underscoring the brutal reality and high risk of death on the battlefield for combatants.
Recommendation: Continue to meticulously document all instances of civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations. Continue to highlight the human cost of the conflict.
Russian information operations are heavily focused on the alleged detention of Ignat Kuzin and claiming the involvement of Ukrainian special services in the assassination of Major General Yaroslav Moskalik. Multiple Russian sources are amplifying this narrative with details of the alleged plot and footage of the detention and interrogation.
Russian sources are actively promoting claimed tactical successes, particularly on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk axes, with detailed reports of advances and ongoing fighting. They are also highlighting the "liberation" of the Kursk border region as a significant achievement.
Russian sources are engaging in fundraising efforts for counter-drone training and equipment, indicating a public awareness campaign about the threat and the need for support.
Statements by Donald Trump regarding the lack of justification for Russian strikes on civilians are being reported, as are statements regarding potential negotiations. Russian sources are highlighting Maria Zakharova's statement about the future "liberation" of all Ukrainian-controlled territories.
Ukrainian information operations are highlighting successful military actions, including the destruction of Russian tanks and vehicles with drones. They are also highlighting high-level diplomatic engagements, such as President Zelenskyy's meetings with Macron and the President of Estonia, emphasizing discussions on ceasefire and the need for air defense. Ukrainian sources are also highlighting symbolic diplomatic events, such as President Zelenskyy's seating arrangement at the Vatican ceremony. Ukrainian sources are using graphic footage to illustrate the impact of drone warfare.
Recommendation: Counter Russian narratives regarding the Moskalik assassination and alleged Ukrainian involvement. Continue to publicize Ukrainian military successes, particularly regarding the destruction of Russian armor and effectiveness in counter-drone operations. Leverage statements from international leaders that are critical of Russian actions or supportive of Ukraine. Continue to highlight the need for international military assistance, particularly air defense. Counter Russian propaganda regarding territorial control and alleged "liberation."
The extensive and coordinated reporting by Russian sources on the alleged detention and interrogation of Ignat Kuzin is a significant indicator of a deliberate information operation aimed at attributing the Moskalik assassination to Ukraine and showcasing Russian counter-intelligence capabilities.
Claimed Russian advances on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk axes, particularly around Dyliivka, Staraya Nikolayevka, Sukha Balka, Kotlyarivka, Troitske, and Uspenivka, are indicators of continued Russian offensive pressure and potential shifts in the frontline. These claims require independent verification.
Active fundraising efforts by Russian sources for counter-drone training and equipment are indicators of the perceived threat posed by Ukrainian UAVs and a potential area of vulnerability for Russian forces.
Statements from Donald Trump questioning Putin's motives and suggesting alternative pressure methods, while potentially inconsistent, are indicators of the evolving dynamics within the international political landscape and could influence discussions regarding future negotiations. The reported statement to the President of Estonia about not withdrawing from negotiations is another indicator in this regard.
President Zelenskyy's meeting with President Macron and the emphasis on a full, unconditional ceasefire and the need for pressure on Russia is a clear indicator of Ukraine's continued diplomatic stance and objectives.
Maria Zakharova's statement about the future "liberation" of all Ukrainian-controlled territories is a strong indicator of Russia's maximalist strategic goals.
Ukrainian forces' continued successful use of drones for targeting Russian armor and vehicles is an indicator of their adapting tactics and capabilities.
Updated Situation: The situation is characterized by ongoing high-intensity ground combat, with Russian forces claiming tactical advances on key axes, particularly Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Russian information operations are heavily focused on the alleged detention of a Ukrainian agent linked to a high-profile assassination in Russia, aiming to implicate Ukraine and demonstrate Russian security capabilities. Simultaneously, diplomatic activity continues with President Zelenskyy engaging international leaders, including discussions on achieving a ceasefire and securing further military aid, while statements from key figures like Donald Trump indicate potential complexities in future negotiation dynamics. Russian officials continue to articulate maximalist territorial goals. Both sides are actively utilizing and countering drone warfare. Ukrainian successes in targeting Russian armor with drones are reported, while Russian sources are actively seeking support for counter-drone measures.
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