Archived operational intelligence briefing
Ukrainian Air Force reports UAV reconnaissance activity over northern Chernihiv Oblast. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Head Serhii Lysak reports ongoing Russian drone and artillery strikes on Nikopolskyi raion, impacting Nikopol, Marhanets, and Pokrovske hromadas, resulting in one civilian injury and damage to buildings and infrastructure. A Russian KAB strike earlier today in Novopavlivska hromada, Synelnikovskyi raion, damaged non-operational buildings, houses, and power lines, with no casualties. Russian sources report the use of FAB-3000 with UMPK by bomber aviation of the "Vostok" group on Ukrainian positions near Novoukrainka. ASTRA reports over 500 casualties, including at least four fatalities, from an explosion at Shahid-Rajaei port in Iran. Ukrainian sources cite Russian prisoner of war testimony alleging North Korean soldiers shot civilians in Kursk Oblast and killed Russian soldiers and black mercenaries, looting both their own and others' forces. Russia's FSB reports the detention of Ignat Kuzin, an alleged agent of Ukrainian special services, claiming he mined the vehicle that killed Major General Yaroslav Moskalik, and that the explosive device was detonated remotely from Ukraine. Russian sources claim Kuzin was detained in Turkey and transported to Russia, had a residence permit in Ukraine, and used components from a cache set up by Ukrainian special services in Moscow Oblast.
Recommendation: Maintain continuous monitoring of Russian reconnaissance UAV activity in northern border regions. Prioritize air defense and counter-drone measures in areas under persistent attack like Nikopolskyi raion. Assess the strategic implications of Russian FAB-3000 strikes with UMPK. Monitor developments regarding the Iran port explosion for any confirmed links to military supply chains. Document civilian casualties and damage for war crime accountability. Assess the credibility and strategic implications of alleged North Korean actions in Kursk Oblast based on POW testimony. Monitor developments regarding the alleged detention and investigation of Ignat Kuzin for further details.
No significant changes reported in Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, or Sea of Azov naval deployments. Russian Kalibr carriers remain present in the Black Sea and Mediterranean. The situation at Shahid-Rajaei port in Iran should be monitored. North Korea has presented a new multi-purpose destroyer and issued further threats to the US regarding strategic deterrence.
Recommendation: Continue uninterrupted surveillance of Russian naval forces, especially Kalibr carriers. Monitor developments regarding North Korean naval capabilities and rhetoric for potential wider geopolitical implications.
Intense ground combat persists, with the Pokrovsk axis remaining a primary focus. Russian military bloggers (RVvoenkor) showcase claimed successful combat work by the "Center" group on this axis. Ukrainian sources (Butusov Plus) provide footage of combat near Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces (SSU "A" unit) claim destroying three Russian tanks. Russian sources (Z-committee map, Colonelcassad) indicate Russian advances near Sukha Balka and Staraya Nikolayevka on the Toretsk direction. Russian military bloggers (Slovochniy Kapriz) report Russian advances of over 2.5 km west towards the Velyka Novosilka - Bohatyr road on the Southern Donetsk (Kurakhove) direction. Ukrainian sources (Butusov Plus) share footage of drone operations in Kursk Oblast. Russian sources (Alex Parker Returns) express concern about alleged "meat assaults" and defeat in the Kursk area. Russian state media (TASS) reports on plans to consult with residents of Kursk Oblast on how to celebrate its claimed "liberation." Russian Ministry of Defense shares a video of assault detachments of paratroopers from Yaroslavl training to capture strongholds on motorbikes. Colonelcassad reports Alexander Khinshtein, acting head of Kursk Oblast, stating that Ukrainian forces continue to strike the Gornal Monastery even after its "liberation." Ukrainian sources cite Russian prisoner of war testimony alleging North Korean soldiers shot civilians in Kursk Oblast and killed Russian soldiers and black mercenaries, looting both their own and others' forces.
Recommendation: Prioritize reinforcement and resource allocation to the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. Validate claimed Russian advances on the Southern Donetsk direction. Continue to assess the situation in the Kursk/Sumy border region. Analyze differing Russian narratives regarding the Kursk operation. Enhance counter-UAV capabilities. Monitor the effectiveness and prevalence of Russian use of motorbikes in assault operations. Analyze Russian plans for occupied Kursk Oblast and counter their narrative regarding the Gornal Monastery. Assess the credibility and strategic implications of alleged North Korean actions in Kursk Oblast based on POW testimony.
Reports confirm that President Zelenskyy's meeting with former US President Donald Trump in the Vatican was brief and did not proceed as a full meeting. President Zelenskyy is meeting with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in the Vatican. Zelenskyy also met with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who reportedly supports Ukraine's call for a ceasefire and emphasizes the need for Russia to demonstrate readiness for peace. Giorgia Meloni reportedly commented on the meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump, describing the day as "historic". Ukrainian sources report that Vatican protocol was broken to seat President Zelenskyy in the first row at the event, alongside Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron. Keir Starmer, the leader of the UK Labour Party, has noted "positive progress" in negotiations regarding the Ukrainian conflict following his meeting with President Zelenskyy.
Russian sources report Trump criticizing Putin for missile strikes on civilian areas and questioning if Putin "doesn't want to stop the war," suggesting alternative pressure methods. Trump is also reported to have referred to demands for Ukraine to return all lost territories, including Crimea, as "ridiculous." Macron stated that Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire and that Putin needs to prove he truly wants peace. Russian sources continue to promote Putin's claimed readiness for negotiations with Kyiv without preconditions. Russian milbloggers (Kotsnews) are reacting to Trump's recent statements. Maria Zakharova (TASS) made a statement claiming that following Kursk, all territories under Kyiv's control will be "liberated." ASTRA reports that a criminal case has been initiated against lawyer Dmitry Zakhvatov and former municipal deputy Maria Solenova for supporting Ukraine. Ukraine's General Staff reports significant Russian losses in the Kursk operational zone since August 6, 2024, including 62.4 thousand personnel. North Korean losses on the Kursk direction are reported to be over 4.5 thousand killed and wounded. Ukrainian sources cite Russian prisoner of war testimony alleging North Korean soldiers shot civilians in Kursk Oblast and killed Russian soldiers and black mercenaries, looting both their own and others' forces. Russia's FSB reports the detention of Ignat Kuzin, an alleged agent of Ukrainian special services, claiming he mined the vehicle that killed Major General Yaroslav Moskalik, and that the explosive device was detonated remotely from Ukraine. Ukrainian sources report a Spartan race will be held in Kyiv on May 17-18 to commemorate the GUR operation involving flights to besieged Mariupol.
Recommendation: Closely monitor the outcomes of President Zelenskyy's meeting with Ursula von der Leyen. Analyze the evolving nature of Donald Trump's public statements. Continue to engage with European partners. Prepare to counter Russian narratives about unconditional negotiations. Consider the implications of the expressed Russian military blogger sentiment. Assess the implications of Zakharova's statement. Document and expose Russian legal actions against individuals supporting Ukraine. Assess the credibility and strategic implications of alleged North Korean actions in Kursk Oblast based on POW testimony. Analyze Russian claims regarding the alleged detention and investigation of Ignat Kuzin.
Ukraine's General Staff reports significant Russian losses in the Kursk operational zone since August 6, 2024, including 62.4 thousand personnel. North Korean losses on the Kursk direction are reported to be over 4.5 thousand killed and wounded. Ukrainian forces continue their training efforts and highlight the use of drones. Ukrainian SSU "A" unit demonstrates effective anti-tank capabilities. Ukraine continues to engage in information operations showcasing domestic production capabilities. Ukrainian sources cite Russian prisoner of war testimony alleging North Korean soldiers shot civilians in Kursk Oblast and killed Russian soldiers and black mercenaries, looting both their own and others' forces. Russia's FSB reports the detention of Ignat Kuzin, an alleged agent of Ukrainian special services, claiming he mined the vehicle that killed Major General Yaroslav Moskalik. Russian Ministry of Defense shares a video of assault detachments of paratroopers from Yaroslavl training to capture strongholds on motorbikes. Russian sources also showcase a railway composition with at least five "Malva" wheeled self-propelled artillery units. Colonelcassad reports Alexander Khinshtein, acting head of Kursk Oblast, stating that Ukrainian forces continue to strike the Gornal Monastery.
Russian forces continue extensive use of drones, artillery, and air-delivered munitions, including the confirmed use of FAB-3000 with UMPK. Russian sources (RVvoenkor) showcase claimed successful combat work by the "Center" group on the Pokrovsk axis. Russian military bloggers (Два майора) are soliciting donations for quadcopters for soldiers on the Zaporizhzhia front. Russian sources continue to highlight their military capabilities. Reports on damage assessment and restoration plans for territories in Kursk Oblast are part of the Russian narrative. Russian Defence Minister Shoigu is reported by TASS to have claimed sanctions have not hindered Russian trade. The statement from a Russian military blogger (Военкор Котенок) underscores the belief that Russia must fight to the "logical conclusion."
Recommendation: Continue to track and verify claimed personnel and equipment losses. Support and expand Ukrainian training programs, especially those focused on UAV operations. Analyze indicators of Russian logistical strain or equipment shortages. Publicize Russian losses. Highlight Ukraine's domestic production capabilities and the professionalization of its forces. Assess the impact and accuracy of FAB-3000 strikes with UMPK. Consider the implications of the expressed Russian military blogger sentiment. Assess the credibility and strategic implications of alleged North Korean actions in Kursk Oblast based on POW testimony. Monitor the prevalence and effectiveness of Russian use of motorbikes in assault operations. Analyze the significance of increased Russian Malva production. Analyze Russian claims regarding the alleged detention and investigation of Ignat Kuzin.
Berlin police will temporarily ban Russian and Soviet flags and the "Z" symbol in certain areas on May 8th and 9th. Russia's FSB continues to claim preventing terrorist attacks. Reports of alleged pressure on medical workers in St. Petersburg to join the "United Russia" party suggest ongoing political pressure. ASTRA reports on the FSB detaining an activist in occupied Donetsk. Roskomnadzor's actions forcing Russian outlets to delete publications underscore pervasive state information control. The death of Major General Yaroslav Moskalik in a car explosion remains a significant internal security event in Russia. Russian state media (TASS) is promoting a narrative about Russian law enforcement thoroughly investigating alleged crimes by Ukrainian forces. ASTRA is actively promoting its presence on multiple social media platforms. Russian sources (Colonelcassad) are engaging in information operations questioning the credibility and actions of the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service (СЗРУ). Russia's FSB reports the detention of Ignat Kuzin, an alleged agent of Ukrainian special services, claiming he mined the vehicle that killed Major General Yaroslav Moskalik, and that the explosive device was remotely detonated from Ukraine. ASTRA reports that a criminal case has been initiated against lawyer Dmitry Zakhvatov and former municipal deputy Maria Solenova for supporting Ukraine.
Recommendation: Maintain vigilance regarding potential Russian intelligence activities. Monitor internal developments within Russia for indicators of political pressure. Continue efforts to counter Russian disinformation. Protect sensitive data and communications. Continue to monitor developments related to the death of Major General Moskalik. Analyze Russian claims regarding the alleged detention and investigation of Ignat Kuzin. Counter Russian narratives regarding alleged Ukrainian crimes. Support independent media efforts like ASTRA. Analyze and counter Russian attempts to discredit Ukrainian intelligence agencies. Document and expose Russian legal actions against individuals supporting Ukraine.
Civilian casualties and damage from Russian attacks remain a critical concern. Reports from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Head Serhii Lysak confirm one civilian injury from Russian drone and artillery strikes in Nikopolskyi raion, in addition to damage to buildings and infrastructure. He also reported damage from an earlier KAB strike in Novopavlivska hromada, though without casualties. Updated information from the Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) reports the completion of liquidation of consequences from a prior missile strike in Sviatoshynskyi district, confirming 12 fatalities and damage to 54 residential buildings and 723 apartments. Russian sources (WarGonzo, TASS) claim that despite claimed Russian control of the Gornal Monastery area in Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces continue to strike it. Russian sources (TASS - Zakharova statement) are promoting a narrative about Russian law enforcement thoroughly investigating alleged crimes by Ukrainian forces. ASTRA reports the significant casualties (over 500, at least four fatalities) from the explosion at Shahid-Rajaei port in Iran. Ukrainian sources cite Russian prisoner of war testimony alleging North Korean soldiers shot civilians in Kursk Oblast, which, if credible, highlights potential atrocities committed by Russian-aligned forces against civilians.
Recommendation: Continue to meticulously document all instances of civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations. Counter Russian propaganda narratives that attempt to shift blame or portray Ukrainian actions negatively. Monitor the situation at Shahid-Rajaei port for any confirmed humanitarian needs. Investigate allegations of atrocities committed by North Korean soldiers in Kursk Oblast based on POW testimony.
Russian information operations continue to focus on promoting claimed military successes, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. Russian sources are highlighting claimed tactical gains near Sukha Balka and Staraya Nikolayevka on the Toretsk axis and advances on the Southern Donetsk direction. They continue to promote claimed full control of the Gornal Monastery area in Kursk Oblast. Russian sources are promoting Putin's claimed readiness for unconditional negotiations. Russian military bloggers are reacting to Donald Trump's recent statements. Russian state media (TASS) is disseminating Maria Zakharova's statements claiming the future "liberation" of all territories under Kyiv's control. Russian military bloggers (Два майора) are soliciting donations for basic equipment. Russian sources (Colonelcassad) are engaging in information operations to discredit the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service. Russian sources are showcasing the use of heavy aerial ordnance like FAB-3000 with UMPK. Russian Ministry of Defense shares a video showcasing paratroopers training on motorbikes. Russian sources also showcase a railway composition with "Malva" wheeled self-propelled artillery units. Russia's FSB reports the detention of Ignat Kuzin, an alleged agent of Ukrainian special services, claiming he mined the vehicle that killed Major General Yaroslav Moskalik. Russian sources further claim Kuzin was detained in Turkey and transported to Russia. ASTRA reports that a criminal case has been initiated against lawyer Dmitry Zakhvatov and former municipal deputy Maria Solenova for supporting Ukraine.
Ukrainian information operations are highlighting Russian losses, particularly in the Kursk operational zone. They are showcasing the professionalism and capabilities of their forces. Ukrainian sources are reporting on the severe impact of Russian attacks on civilians and infrastructure. They are reporting on international diplomatic activities, including Zelenskyy's meetings. They are highlighting inconsistencies or potentially favorable statements from international leaders. Ukrainian sources are reporting on Berlin's temporary ban on Russian and Soviet symbols. Ukrainian sources (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) continue to show footage of drone operations in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian sources (ASTRA) are actively promoting their presence on multiple platforms. Ukrainian sources cite Russian prisoner of war testimony alleging North Korean soldiers shot civilians in Kursk Oblast and killed Russian soldiers and black mercenaries, looting both their own and others' forces. Ukrainian sources report that Vatican protocol was broken to seat President Zelenskyy in the first row at the event. Ukrainian sources report a Spartan race will be held in Kyiv on May 17-18 to commemorate the GUR operation involving flights to besieged Mariupol.
Recommendation: Sustain proactive information operations highlighting Russian losses and the human cost of their aggression. Counter Russian narratives regarding territorial control, claimed successes, alleged Ukrainian misdeeds, and attempts to discredit Ukrainian institutions. Utilize successful operations and the professionalization of Ukrainian forces. Tailor messaging to address specific audiences. Support efforts to bypass Russian censorship. Analyze and counter Russian military blogger narratives. Use credible information from POW testimony, if verified, for counter-propaganda regarding North Korean involvement. Monitor and counter Russian narratives regarding the alleged detention and investigation of Ignat Kuzin. Highlight Russian legal actions against individuals supporting Ukraine. Leverage events like the Spartan race. Emphasize the symbolic significance of diplomatic events.
Confirmation of Russian advances near Sukha Balka and Staraya Nikolayevka on the Toretsk axis indicates continued Russian offensive pressure. The reported Russian advance of over 2.5 km towards the Velyka Novosilka - Bohatyr road on the Southern Donetsk direction is a significant tactical indicator. The differing, but both high, casualty figures presented by Russia and Ukraine for the Kursk operational zone underscore the intensity and attritional nature of the fighting. The claimed involvement of North Korean personnel in Kursk is a potentially significant indicator of expanded external support for Russia. Ukrainian sources cite Russian prisoner of war testimony alleging North Korean soldiers shot civilians in Kursk Oblast and killed Russian soldiers and black mercenaries, looting both their own and others' forces, which, if credible, could indicate friction or discipline issues within Russian-aligned forces. Russian Ministry of Defense shares a video of assault detachments of paratroopers from Yaroslavl training to capture strongholds on motorbikes, indicating a potential shift in tactics towards increased mobility. Russian sources also showcase a railway composition with at least five "Malva" wheeled self-propelled artillery units, claiming their production is increasing, which could indicate a strategic effort to bolster artillery capabilities. Colonelcassad reports Alexander Khinshtein, acting head of Kursk Oblast, stating that Ukrainian forces continue to strike the Gornal Monastery even after its "liberation," indicating continued contested areas or Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities.
The confirmation that President Zelenskyy's meeting with former US President Donald Trump in the Vatican was brief and did not proceed as a full meeting is a notable diplomatic indicator. However, the commencement of President Zelenskyy's meeting with Ursula von der Leyen indicates continued high-level diplomatic engagement with key European partners. Giorgia Meloni's comment describing the day as "historic" highlights the perceived significance of this interaction. Ukrainian sources reporting that Vatican protocol was broken to seat President Zelenskyy in the first row indicates the symbolic importance attached to Ukraine's representation. The reported criticism of Putin's strikes on civilians by Donald Trump, alongside his reported statement about the "ridiculous" demands for Ukraine to regain all territory including Crimea, are significant indicators of the complex and potentially shifting international political landscape. The explicit statements from Macron calling for Putin to prove he wants peace and stating Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire provide a clear indication of the position being advocated by key European leaders. Keir Starmer noting "positive progress" in negotiations with Zelenskyy is an indicator of ongoing diplomatic efforts.
The updated casualty count for the prior missile strike in Kyiv, confirming 12 fatalities, underscores the significant humanitarian cost. Ongoing strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast causing civilian injury and damage further reinforce this. The reported casualties from the explosion at Shahid-Rajaei port in Iran is a significant regional event. Ukrainian sources cite Russian prisoner of war testimony alleging North Korean soldiers shot civilians in Kursk Oblast, which, if credible, is a significant indicator of potential war crimes against civilians.
Russian military bloggers' sentiment about the necessity of fighting to a "logical conclusion" is an indicator of prevailing views within a segment of the Russian military community. Russian sources discussing damage assessment and restoration plans in Kursk Oblast are indicators of efforts to consolidate claimed control. Russian military bloggers' fundraising appeals for basic equipment can be indicators of potential logistical gaps. Russian attempts to discredit Ukrainian intelligence through information operations are indicators of ongoing counter-intelligence and information warfare efforts. The temporary ban on Russian and Soviet symbols in Berlin is an indicator of continuing European efforts to manage public perception. Maria Zakharova's statement regarding the future "liberation" of all territories under Kyiv's control is an indicator of Russia's maximalist goals. Russia's FSB reports the detention of Ignat Kuzin, an alleged agent of Ukrainian special services, claiming he mined the vehicle that killed Major General Yaroslav Moskalik, is a significant indicator of claimed Russian counter-intelligence success. Russian sources claiming Kuzin was detained in Turkey and transported to Russia adds a layer to this narrative. ASTRA reporting a criminal case against individuals supporting Ukraine for fundraising for the Azov battalion is an indicator of Russia's use of legal means to target and pressure individuals supporting Ukraine. North Korea presenting a new destroyer and issuing further threats to the US is a significant indicator in the broader geopolitical context. Ukrainian sources reporting a Spartan race in Kyiv to commemorate the GUR Mariupol operation is an indicator of ongoing public support for special forces.
Updated Situation: The situation is characterized by sustained high-intensity ground combat, particularly in eastern Ukraine and border regions, with confirmed Russian tactical advances reported in several areas. Simultaneously, diplomatic efforts are ongoing with international leaders engaging with President Zelenskyy, although significant differences in perspectives on potential peace terms, particularly regarding territorial concessions, are evident. A significant internal security event in Russia, the death of Major General Moskalik, is now publicly attributed by the FSB to a Ukrainian agent allegedly detained in Turkey and transported to Russia, adding a new dimension to the conflict's reach. Information operations from both sides are prominent, including Russian claims of military successes and the "liberation" of Kursk, Ukrainian highlighting of Russian losses and war crimes, and narratives surrounding international diplomatic interactions. The alleged involvement and actions of North Korean personnel in the Kursk area, based on Ukrainian reporting of POW testimony, remain a potential indicator requiring further verification. Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage continue to be reported as a result of Russian strikes. Ukraine is continuing to seek international support and highlight its resolve through events and public communications.
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