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Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-26 12:32:54Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-26 12:02:48Z)

Military Intelligence Briefing: Operational Updates - April 26, 2025 (Refined Analysis)

Key Strategic Developments and Assessments

The central point of contention remains the status of Kursk Oblast. Russian sources, including Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov reporting to President Putin, maintain the operation to liberate the oblast is complete, claiming Gornal as the final liberated settlement and asserting significant Ukrainian losses (>76,000 personnel). Video evidence of the Russian flag being raised in Gornal is presented as proof. Ukrainian sources, however, directly refute this, stating the defensive operation in designated areas of Kursk Oblast is ongoing, that the situation is difficult but positions are held, and that Russian claims are propaganda ("propaganda maneuver" and wishful thinking). They report repelling five enemy assaults and one ongoing combat engagement in the "Kursk" grouping's operational zone, emphasizing no threat of encirclement. The continued active operations in designated areas of Belgorod Oblast are also affirmed by Ukraine. DeepState acknowledges Russian progression near Hornal, attributing it partly to the numerical presence of North Korean forces, although noting they also sustained losses. This presents a clear information asymmetry and requires independent verification for accurate assessment of territorial control.

A significant confirmation comes from Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov, who officially acknowledged the participation of North Korean military personnel in the Kursk Oblast operation, praising their professionalism. This aligns with previous rumors and Ukrainian SSO reports of destroying North Korean personnel. Russian milbloggers elaborate, describing them as "desperate assault troops" operating on internationally recognized Russian territory for a "counter-terrorist operation" and noting their effectiveness despite language barriers. This official acknowledgment has implications for international relations and the perceived nature of the conflict. Russian milbloggers further confirm North Korean forces entered with their own weaponry and successfully liberated settlements, performing well under fire and fulfilling their alliance obligations.

Russia continues claiming the creation of a security zone in Sumy Oblast, reporting four settlements liberated and control over 90 sq km. They also assert the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from Popovka in Belgorod Oblast, raising the Russian flag and conducting mopping-up operations there. Ukrainian forces, while stating active operations continue in designated areas of Belgorod Oblast, do not explicitly confirm or deny the situation in Popovka in this update. Russian reporting indicates ongoing searching for remaining Ukrainian personnel in border forests and claiming significant Ukrainian losses (>1760 personnel) in the "Krasnoyaruzhsky adventure."

Politically, reports surrounding President Zelenskyy's interaction with "President Donald Trump" (Note: Trump is not currently President) at the funeral of Pope Francis are notable. While Zelenskyy initially reported a "good meeting" discussing peace and ceasefire, subsequent reports from Ukrainian sources (RBC-Ukraina and Operatyvnyi ZSU) state a continuation of the meeting did NOT occur due to Trump's schedule, although important matters were discussed. Zelenskyy later reiterated the "good meeting" aspect and discussed productive conversations, though withholding sensitive details. Zelenskyy is also reported to have met with French President Macron and is scheduled to meet with Italian Prime Minister Meloni and EC President von der Leyen, indicating continued diplomatic engagement.

The US reportedly rejected Russia's demand for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, deeming it "unreasonable and impracticable" and assuring Kyiv of non-support, according to The New York Times. This directly impacts potential peace negotiation frameworks.

The increasing number of casualties (516 wounded) from the explosion at the port in Bandar Abbas, Iran, is reported, indicating a significant incident with humanitarian consequences.

Further changes in the structure of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces (DShV) are reported, with the 148th Separate Artillery Brigade (A3316) joining the 8th Corps, making it a fully equipped unit with dedicated artillery. This suggests adaptation in force structure to enhance operational capabilities.

Russian Ministry of Defence provided updated daily reports on losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces across multiple axes, claiming significant personnel and equipment destruction. These claims require independent verification.

Reports of the alleged killing of a leading Russian EW developer, Yevgeny Rytikov, in Bryansk on April 17/18 via a car explosion are reiterated, linking him to the modernization of the "Krasukha" system. This, alongside the reported killing of a cartographer and Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate Yaroslav Moskalik, suggests potential internal security issues or targeted actions within Russia impacting key personnel.

A Russian milblogger provided information on the production of US MQ-25 Stingray refueling drones, highlighting their potential to extend the range of carrier aviation and enhance NATO operational capabilities, indicating awareness of evolving Western military technology.

Russian sources reported a fundraiser appeal for DJI Mavic 3T and Mavic 3Pro drones for a Russian motorized rifle battalion, highlighting ongoing reliance on volunteer support for essential equipment.

Operational Activity

Intense fighting continues across numerous axes. The Russian Ministry of Defence reports for April 26 claim significant Ukrainian losses across multiple axes, including:

  • Belgorod Direction ("Sever" Group): Defeating Ukrainian mechanized and territorial defense brigades near Miropolskoye, Mikhailovskoye, and Turya (Sumy Oblast), claiming losses of up to 35 personnel, a tank, BTR, vehicles, artillery, and EW station.
  • Western Group: Improved frontline positions, defeating Ukrainian brigades near Kamenka, Kutkovka, Moskovka, Kupyansk (Kharkiv), Kirovsk, and Yampol (Donetsk), claiming over 230 personnel losses, a Kirpi armored vehicle, pickups, artillery, and destroying four ammunition depots.
  • Southern Group: Occupied more advantageous lines/positions, defeating Ukrainian brigades and National Guard near Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Chasov Yar, Dyleevka, and Ilyinovka (Donetsk), claiming up to 295 personnel losses, a HMMWV, vehicles, artillery, and destroying an AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar and ammunition depot.
  • Center Group: Improved tactical position, defeating multiple Ukrainian brigades and National Guard units near Novaya Poltavka, Krasnoarmeysk, Muravka, Dimitrov, Grishino, Novonikolaevka, and Udachnoye (Donetsk), claiming over 360 personnel losses, armored vehicles, vehicles, and artillery.
  • Eastern Group: Continued advancement into enemy defenses, defeating Ukrainian brigades and Marine Corps near Otradnoye, Volnoye Polye (Donetsk), and Malinovka (Zaporizhzhia), claiming up to 200 personnel losses, armored vehicles, vehicles, artillery, and destroying a fuel depot.
  • Dnipro Group: Defeating Ukrainian brigades and territorial defense near Novoandreyevka, Stepnogorsk (Zaporizhzhia), Tokarevka, Nikolskoye, and Antonovka (Kherson), claiming up to 85 personnel losses, an armored vehicle, artillery (including an M777), and destroying an EW station, AN/TPQ-36 radar, and ammunition depot.

Russian sources also report tactical activity on the Svatove-Kreminna direction and continued heavy fighting and drone use on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Two people were reported wounded in Kherson Oblast due to a Russian drone attack. Ukrainian units continue to use drones effectively for reconnaissance, targeting, and interdiction, including reportedly downing a Russian "Orlan" UAV. Ukrainian drone operators of the 108th battalion of the 10th OGShBr reportedly destroyed attacking Russian infantry before they reached positions. Russian sniper teams are also reportedly active, with one claiming to have shot down a "Baba Yaga" drone on the Southern Donetsk direction. Russian sources on the Southern Donetsk direction claim continued targeting of Ukrainian strongholds, UAV control points, reinforcement groups, and equipment using FPV drones and precision strikes.

Air activity includes Ukrainian reports of Russian tactical aviation activity on the northeastern and eastern directions with the threat of aerial weapons use, specifically mentioning KAB launches on Sumy Oblast.

Non-Combat Incidents and Political Developments

The funeral of Pope Francis in Vatican City saw international delegations in attendance, including President Zelenskyy and former US President Trump. Zurab Tsereteli was buried in Tbilisi, Georgia. The Ukrainian application "Diia" reportedly experienced technical issues but is now working again. Reports continue of the alleged killing of a Russian EW developer near Bryansk and a cartographer in the Vladimir region, although these are not officially confirmed by Russia.

Diplomatically, aside from the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting reports and clarification, Zelenskyy is also meeting with French President Macron, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, and EC President von der Leyen, indicating continued diplomatic efforts. The US has reportedly rejected Russian demands for Ukrainian troop withdrawal from occupied territories in peace talks. Information regarding a dispute in Russia over Wargaming/Lesta assets persists. Humanitarian concerns in occupied Mariupol continue. The reported death of a Russian EW developer (Rytikov) is highlighted again by multiple sources.

Reports from Russian milbloggers highlight internal issues, including the conviction of General Popov and criticism of migration policies in Voronezh, reflecting potential internal friction and societal concerns.

Information Environment

Russian state media and military bloggers are heavily promoting the claimed liberation of Kursk Oblast, highlighting video evidence of flag raising in Gornal and reporting on the Gerasimov-Putin briefing with claims of massive Ukrainian casualties and the effectiveness of Russian forces and North Korean personnel. They are also promoting the claimed liberation of Popovka in Belgorod Oblast and the ongoing creation of a security zone in Sumy Oblast. The official acknowledgment of North Korean forces is being used to reinforce the narrative of North Korea as a steadfast ally. Russian sources are also disseminating their daily reports on claimed Ukrainian losses. The reported death of EW developer Rytikov is being reported by Russian sources. Fundraiser appeals highlight the reliance on public support for equipment.

Ukrainian sources are directly countering the Russian claims regarding Kursk Oblast, emphasizing that their defensive operation continues, positions are held, and Russian claims are propaganda. They are reporting on repelled assaults in the area and ongoing operations in designated areas of Belgorod Oblast. The reported meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump is being highlighted, along with the subsequent clarification that a longer meeting did not occur, and Zelenskyy's continued diplomatic engagements. Ukrainian sources are also reporting on civilian casualties from Russian attacks, highlighting Ukrainian drone effectiveness (downing an Orlan, destroying infantry), and reporting on international diplomatic developments including the US rejection of Russian territorial demands. The increasing casualties from the explosion in Iran are also being reported. The reported death of Russian EW developer Rytikov is also being highlighted by Ukrainian sources. DeepState acknowledges Russian progress near Hornal but attributes it to North Korean numbers.

Propaganda efforts continue by both sides, with visual evidence and official statements being used to support their respective narratives. Russian sources are also highlighting internal issues and perceived shortcomings of the Ukrainian side.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

  • Kursk Oblast (RU): Russia claims complete liberation; Ukraine disputes this and reports ongoing defensive operations with repelled assaults. Fierce fighting reported near Hornal. Mopping-up operations reported by Russia. Official Russian acknowledgment of North Korean military presence and participation.
  • Popovka (Belgorod Oblast, RU): Russia claims liberation and is conducting mopping-up operations. Ukraine states active operations continue in designated areas of Belgorod Oblast.
  • Sumy Oblast Border Region: Continued Russian activity aimed at creating a security zone, with claims of liberating four settlements and controlling 90 sq km. Russian reports of defeating Ukrainian forces in this area. KAB launches reported by Ukraine.
  • Bandar Abbas (Iran): Location of a powerful explosion at a port with increasing reported casualties (516 wounded).
  • Bryansk Oblast (RU): Reported location of the alleged killing of leading Russian EW developer Yevgeny Rytikov.
  • Vatican City: Location of diplomatic meetings, including Zelenskyy with Trump, Macron, Meloni, and von der Leyen.
  • Tbilisi (Georgia): Location of Zurab Tsereteli's funeral.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Continued intense ground combat.
  • Toretsk Axis: Continued ground combat with claimed Russian advances.
  • Svatove-Kreminna Direction: Reported tactical activity.
  • Zaporizhzhia Direction: Continued heavy fighting, artillery duels, and drone use.
  • Kherson Oblast: Civilian casualties reported due to Russian drone attack.
  • Konstiantynivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian MoD claims defeating Ukrainian units in this area.
  • Chasov Yar (Donetsk Oblast): Russian MoD claims defeating Ukrainian units in this area.
  • Mariupol (Occupied): Ongoing humanitarian issues.
  • Voronezh (RU): Reports of internal issues related to migration and market control.

Potential Future Developments

  • Independent verification of territorial control claims in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts.
  • Further details and international reactions to Russia's official acknowledgment of North Korean military involvement.
  • Outcomes of follow-up diplomatic discussions involving President Zelenskyy.
  • Continued reporting on the effectiveness of Russian forces and North Korean personnel in the border regions.
  • Potential shifts in US policy towards Russia or Ukraine following recent interactions and reported discussions.
  • Investigations into the alleged killings of Russian key personnel (Rytikov, Moskalik, cartographer) and potential implications for internal security.
  • Impact of internal Russian incidents (convictions, social friction) on public opinion or stability.
  • Further details and investigations into the cause and responsibility for the explosion in Iran.
  • Ongoing adaptation of Ukrainian and Russian force structures and tactics based on battlefield experience.
  • Continued intensity of fighting on key axes, particularly Pokrovsk and Toretsk.
  • Continued Russian efforts to establish a security zone in Sumy Oblast.

Potential Indicators

  • Independent reporting, satellite imagery, or third-party assessments confirming or contradicting Russian and Ukrainian claims of territorial control and ongoing fighting in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts.
  • Official statements from North Korea or other international actors regarding their military involvement or any future deployments.
  • Public statements or policy changes from the US government regarding peace negotiations, territorial concessions, or aid to Ukraine.
  • Official investigations or legal actions within Russia regarding the alleged killings of key personnel or other internal incidents.
  • Changes in the intensity or location of combat operations on key axes, particularly Pokrovsk and Toretsk.
  • Evidence of increased Russian force accumulation or offensive actions in Sumy Oblast.
  • Further reports or visuals confirming the presence and activities of North Korean military personnel.
  • Statements from the US regarding any direct high-level contact or planned meetings with Russia.
  • Ukrainian reports on successful defensive actions or counter-attacks in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts.
  • Any statements or actions from the US confirming their rejection of specific Russian demands in peace negotiations.
  • Reporting from DeepState or other reliable sources on changes in territorial control on contested axes.
  • Further reports on the structure and deployment of Ukrainian DShV units.
  • Public appeals for specific types of equipment by Russian units, indicating ongoing logistical needs.
  • Official reports or investigations into the explosion in Iran.
Previous (2025-04-26 12:02:48Z)

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