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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-26 12:02:48Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-26 11:32:44Z)

Military Intelligence Briefing: Operational Updates - April 26, 2025 (Continuing Updates)

Key Strategic Developments

The most significant development continues to be the Russian claim of completing the operation to liberate Kursk Oblast, with Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov reporting this to President Putin and stating Gornal is the last settlement liberated. This claim is supported by Russian sources providing video evidence of the Russian flag being raised in central Gornal and asserting the "completion of the defeat of the AFU" in the region. Russia maintains that Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses in Kursk Oblast, exceeding 76,000 personnel, including well-equipped units.

A critical confirmation from the Russian side is the official acknowledgment by Gerasimov of the participation of North Korean military personnel in the Kursk Oblast operation, with praise for their professionalism. This publicly confirms previously circulating rumors and marks a significant shift in Russia's transparency regarding international military support. Rybar elaborates on this, stating North Korean fighters acted as "desperate assault troops" and effectively interacted despite a language barrier, exclusively on internationally recognized Russian territory for a "counter-terrorist operation."

Russia reiterates claims of Ukrainian plans in Donbas failing and attributes a collapse of Ukrainian defense in Kursk Oblast to an "operation with a pipe," leading to a "chaotic retreat" and a significant reduction in the area of Ukrainian penetration. Mopping-up operations are reportedly underway in Kursk Oblast, with 19 settlements cleared of explosives. Specific Russian units, including the 76th Airborne Division, Marine brigades (810th and 155th), "Akhmat" regiment, and volunteers, were credited by Putin for their participation.

Russia maintains it is creating a security zone in Sumy Oblast, claiming four settlements liberated and control over 90 sq km in this region. The "Akhmat" special forces reportedly remain on state border sections in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts. Russian sources also claim Russian forces have expelled Ukrainian forces from Popovka in Belgorod Oblast, raising the Russian flag and conducting mopping-up operations.

The Ukrainian General Staff has directly refuted the Russian claim of complete liberation of Kursk Oblast, stating that the reports from representatives of the aggressor country's high command "do not correspond to reality." They affirm that the defensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in designated areas in Kursk Oblast is ongoing, the operational situation is difficult but Ukrainian units continue to hold their positions, inflicting effective fire damage and employing active defense tactics. They report five enemy assaults repelled since the start of the day in the "Kursk" military grouping's operational zone, with one combat engagement currently ongoing. The General Staff emphasizes that there is no threat of encirclement to Ukrainian units and labels Russian claims of a "rout" as "propaganda maneuver" and wishful thinking. Active operations by Ukrainian forces in designated areas of Belgorod Oblast are also stated to be ongoing.

Politically, President Zelenskyy reported a "good meeting" one-on-one with "President Donald Trump" (Note: Trump is not currently President) at the funeral of Pope Francis in Vatican City, stating they discussed many things and hoped for results on protecting lives, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a reliable and lasting peace. Zelenskyy described it as a symbolic meeting with potential to be historic if joint results are achieved. However, RBC-Ukraina and Operatyvnyi ZSU, citing an RBC-Ukraina source, later reported that a continuation of the meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump did NOT take place because Trump adhered to his schedule to leave immediately after the funeral, although the source stated they managed to discuss the most important things.

An explosion at a port in Bandar Abbas, Iran, is reported with an increasing number of casualties, now at 516 wounded.

The US has reportedly rejected Russia's demand for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, calling it "unreasonable and impracticable" and assuring Kyiv of non-support, according to The New York Times.

Operational Activity

Russian Ministry of Defence reports for April 26 claim significant Ukrainian losses across multiple axes. Intense fighting continues on the Pokrovsk axis. Russian sources also report tactical activity on the Svatove-Kreminna direction and continued heavy fighting and drone use on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Two people were reported wounded in Kherson Oblast due to a Russian drone attack. Ukrainian units continue to use drones effectively for reconnaissance, targeting, and interdiction, including reportedly downing a Russian "Orlan" UAV.

Non-Combat Incidents and Political Developments

The funeral of Pope Francis in Vatican City saw international delegations in attendance, including President Zelenskyy and former US President Trump. Zurab Tsereteli was buried in Tbilisi, Georgia.

The Ukrainian application "Diia" reportedly experienced technical issues but is now working again.

Reports continue of the alleged killing of a Russian EW developer near Bryansk and a cartographer in the Vladimir region, although these are not officially confirmed by Russia.

Diplomatically, aside from the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting reports, Zelenskyy is also reported to be meeting with French President Macron. The US has reportedly rejected Russian demands for Ukrainian troop withdrawal from occupied territories in peace talks.

Information regarding a dispute in Russia over Wargaming/Lesta assets persists. Humanitarian concerns in occupied Mariupol continue.

Information Environment

Russian state media and military bloggers are heavily promoting the claimed liberation of Kursk Oblast, highlighting video evidence of flag raising in Gornal and reporting on the Gerasimov-Putin briefing with claims of massive Ukrainian casualties and the effectiveness of Russian forces and North Korean personnel. They are also promoting the claimed liberation of Popovka in Belgorod Oblast and the ongoing creation of a security zone in Sumy Oblast. The US rejection of Russian territorial demands is also being reported by Ukrainian sources. Russian sources are also using the acknowledgment of North Korean forces to reinforce the narrative of North Korea as a steadfast ally.

Ukrainian sources are directly countering the Russian claims regarding Kursk Oblast, emphasizing that their defensive operation continues, positions are held, and Russian claims are propaganda. They are reporting on repelled assaults in the area and ongoing operations in Belgorod Oblast. The reported meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump is being highlighted, along with the subsequent clarification that a longer meeting did not occur. Ukrainian sources are also reporting on civilian casualties from Russian attacks, highlighting Ukrainian drone effectiveness, and reporting on international diplomatic developments including the US rejection of Russian territorial demands. The increasing casualties from the explosion in Iran are also being reported.

Propaganda efforts continue by both sides, with visual evidence and official statements being used to support their respective narratives.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

  • Kursk Oblast (RU): Russia claims complete liberation and defeat of Ukrainian forces in the region, with Gornal claimed as the last liberated settlement; Ukraine disputes this claim and reports ongoing resistance and presence, with active defensive operations and repelled assaults. Mopping-up operations are reported by Russia.
  • Popovka (Belgorod Oblast, RU): Russia claims liberation of this settlement and is conducting mopping-up operations. Ukrainian forces state active operations continue in designated areas of Belgorod Oblast.
  • Sumy Oblast Border Region: Continued Russian activity aimed at creating a security zone, with claims of liberating four settlements and controlling 90 sq km.
  • Bandar Abbas (Iran): Location of a powerful explosion at a port with increasing reported casualties (now 516).
  • Komsomolsk-on-Amur (RU): Site of a tragic accident at a military exhibition resulting in a child's death.
  • Bryansk Oblast (RU): Alleged location of the killing of a key Russian EW developer.
  • Vladimir Oblast (RU): Alleged location of the killing of a cartographer by military personnel.
  • Vatican City: Location of diplomatic meetings, including Zelenskyy-Trump and Zelenskyy-Macron, during the funeral of Pope Francis.
  • Tbilisi (Georgia): Location of Zurab Tsereteli's funeral.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Continued intense ground combat.
  • Svatove-Kreminna Direction: Reported tactical activity.
  • Zaporizhzhia Direction: Continued heavy fighting, artillery duels, and drone use.
  • Kherson Oblast: Civilian casualties reported due to Russian drone attack.
  • Konstiantynivka (Donetsk Oblast): Report of a Russian drone strike on a hospital.
  • Mariupol (Occupied): Ongoing humanitarian issues and residents demanding compensatory housing.
  • Moldova: Recipient of new EU military aid.

Potential Future Developments

  • Independent verification of territorial control in Kursk Oblast.
  • Further details and international reactions to Russia's official acknowledgment of North Korean military involvement.
  • Outcomes of follow-up discussions between Zelenskyy and Macron.
  • Potential shifts in US policy towards Russia or Ukraine, particularly concerning peace negotiations and aid.
  • Impact of internal Russian incidents on public opinion or security.
  • Investigations into the cause and responsibility for the explosion in Iran.
  • Implementation and impact of EU aid to Moldova.
  • Outcomes of the Wargaming/Lesta legal dispute.
  • Continued reports on the humanitarian situation in occupied territories.
  • Potential investigations or international responses to the alleged killing of a surrendered POW.
  • Continued intensity of fighting on key axes.
  • Further Russian efforts in Sumy Oblast.
  • Potential escalation or de-escalation of cross-border activity in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts.

Potential Indicators

  • Independent reporting, satellite imagery, or third-party assessments confirming or contradicting Russian and Ukrainian claims of territorial control and ongoing fighting in Kursk Oblast.
  • Official statements from North Korea regarding their military involvement or any future deployments.
  • Public statements or policy changes from the US government regarding peace negotiations, territorial concessions, or aid to Ukraine.
  • Official investigations or legal actions within Russia regarding recent internal incidents (EW developer, cartographer).
  • Changes in Moldova's military posture or Russian rhetoric concerning Moldova following EU aid.
  • Progress or outcomes in the Wargaming/Lesta legal case.
  • Changes in the reported humanitarian situation in Mariupol.
  • Any investigations or international responses to the alleged killing of a surrendered POW.
  • Further information on the cause and attributed responsibility for the explosion in Iran.
  • Changes in the intensity or location of combat operations on key axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Zaporizhzhia.
  • Evidence of increased Russian force accumulation or offensive actions in Sumy Oblast.
  • Increased or decreased instances of cross-border shelling or incursions in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts.
  • Further reports or visuals confirming the presence and activities of North Korean military personnel.
  • Statements from the US regarding any direct high-level contact or planned meetings with Russia.
  • Ukrainian reports on successful defensive actions or counter-attacks in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts.
  • Any statements or actions from the US confirming their rejection of specific Russian demands in peace negotiations.
Previous (2025-04-26 11:32:44Z)

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