Military Intelligence Briefing: Operational Updates - April 26, 2025

Key Strategic Developments

The most significant development is the Russian claim of completing the operation to liberate Kursk Oblast from Ukrainian forces, as reported by Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov to President Putin. This claim includes the assertion that Gornal is the last settlement liberated and marks the "completion of the defeat of the AFU" in the region. Russian sources, including video evidence, claim Russian forces have raised the Russian flag in central Gornal. Russia alleges Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses in Kursk Oblast, exceeding 76,000 personnel, including highly equipped units with Western equipment.

Crucially, Russia has officially acknowledged the participation of North Korean military personnel in the Kursk Oblast operation, with Gerasimov praising their professionalism and heroism acting "shoulder to shoulder with Russian troops." This is a major shift in Russia's public stance on international military support.

Russia also claims that Ukrainian plans to halt Russian advances in Donbas have failed and attributes a collapse of Ukrainian defense in Kursk Oblast to an "operation with a pipe," leading to a "chaotic retreat" and a significant reduction in the area of Ukrainian penetration. Russian forces are reportedly conducting mopping-up operations in Kursk Oblast and have cleared 19 settlements of explosive objects. Specific Russian units, including the 76th Airborne Division, Marine brigades, "Akhmat" regiment, and volunteers, were credited by Putin for their participation.

Russia continues to assert progress in creating a security zone in Sumy Oblast, claiming four settlements liberated and control over 90 sq km in this region.

Ukrainian sources immediately contested the Russian claim of complete liberation of Kursk Oblast, stating that their forces "continue to restrain the invaders" and that DeepState maps still show Ukrainian control in two districts of the oblast.

Operational Activity

Russian Ministry of Defence reports for April 26 claim significant Ukrainian losses across multiple axes, including:

• Belgorod Direction (Sumy Oblast): Up to 35 troops, 1 tank, 1 APC, 2 vehicles, 1 artillery gun, 1 EW station near Miropolskoye, Mikhaylovskoye, and Turya.
• Zapad Group (Kharkiv, Donetsk): More than 230 troops, 1 Kirpi armored vehicle, 9 pickup trucks, 4 field artillery guns, 4 ammunition depots near Kamenka, Kutkovka, Moskovka, Kupyansk, Kirovsk, and Yampol.
• Yug Group (Donetsk): Up to 295 troops, 1 HMMWV, 7 vehicles, 5 field artillery guns, 1 AN/TPQ-36 radar, 1 ammunition depot near Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Chasov Yar, Dyleyevka, and Ilyinovka.
• Tsentr Group (Donetsk): More than 360 troops, 3 armored vehicles, 3 vehicles, 4 artillery guns near Novaya Poltavka, Krasnoarmeysk, Muravka, Dimitrov, Grishino, Novonikolayevka, and Udachnoye.
• Vostok Group (Donetsk, Zaporozhye): Up to 200 troops, 5 armored vehicles, 12 vehicles, 1 artillery gun, 1 fuel depot near Otradnoye, Volnoye Pole, and Malinovka.
• Dnepr Group (Zaporozhye, Kherson): Up to 85 troops, 1 armored vehicle, 3 field artillery guns (including 1 M777), 1 EW station, 1 AN/TPQ-36 radar, 1 ammunition depot near Novoandreyevka, Stepnogorsk, Tokarevka, Nikolskoye, and Antonovka.
• Total Air Defense/Aviation (April 26): 8 JDAM guided bombs, 2 HIMARS rockets, and 236 UAVs downed.

Ukrainian sources reported neutralizing 1170 Russian personnel and significant equipment on April 25.

Intense fighting continues on the Pokrovsk axis, with a Russian claim of Ukrainian forces killing a surrendered Russian POW. Russian sources also report tactical activity on the Svatove-Kreminna direction and continued heavy fighting and drone use on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Non-Combat Incidents and Political Developments

A tragic incident occurred in Russia where a 4-year-old child was killed at a military equipment exhibition in Komsomolsk-on-Amur. A powerful explosion with increasing casualties is reported at a port in Bandar Abbas, Iran. Reports continue of the alleged killing of a Russian EW developer near Bryansk and a cartographer in the Vladimir region, although these are not officially confirmed by Russia.

Diplomatically, President Zelenskyy and Donald Trump held a brief meeting at the funeral of Pope Francis in Vatican City and agreed to continue talks. European parliamentary committee heads urged the US to adopt a stronger stance against Russia. The EU announced new military aid for Moldova (60 million euros, including 20 million for air defense), which Russia frames as creating an "anti-Russian military bridgehead." Russian SVR Director Naryshkin claimed the UK may use chemical weapons in Ukraine.

The funeral of Pope Francis in Vatican City saw international delegations in attendance. A separate funeral was held for Zurab Tsereteli in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Reports indicate a dispute in Russia over Wargaming/Lesta assets, with the Prosecutor General's office seeking to ban an association including Wargaming.net owners and seize Lesta assets, citing alleged extremist activity and support for Ukraine.

Humanitarian concerns persist, with reports of residents in occupied Mariupol demanding compensatory housing.

Information Environment

Russian state media and military bloggers are heavily promoting the claimed liberation of Kursk Oblast, the role of North Korean forces, alleged high Ukrainian casualties, and diplomatic events. Ukrainian sources are countering the Kursk claim, reporting on the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, highlighting internal Russian incidents, and showcasing Ukrainian medical personnel. Propaganda efforts continue by both sides.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Kursk Oblast (RU): Russia claims complete liberation and defeat of Ukrainian forces; Ukraine disputes this and reports ongoing resistance and presence. Gornal is claimed as the last liberated settlement by Russia.
• Komsomolsk-on-Amur (RU): Site of a tragic accident at a military exhibition resulting in a child's death.
• Bandar Abbas (Iran): Location of a powerful explosion at a port with reported numerous casualties.
• Bryansk Oblast (RU): Alleged location of the killing of a key Russian EW developer.
• Vladimir Oblast (RU): Alleged location of the killing of a cartographer by military personnel.
• Vatican City: Location of diplomatic meetings and the funeral of Pope Francis.
• Pokrovsk Axis: Continued intense ground combat.
• Svatove-Kreminna Direction: Reported tactical activity.
• Sumy Oblast Border Region: Continued Russian activity aimed at creating a security zone.
• Zaporizhzhia Direction: Continued heavy fighting, artillery duels, and drone use.
• Mariupol (Occupied): Ongoing humanitarian issues and residents demanding compensatory housing.
• Moldova: Recipient of new EU military aid.

Potential Future Developments

• Independent verification of territorial control in Kursk Oblast.
• Further details and international reactions to Russia's official acknowledgment of North Korean military involvement.
• Outcomes of follow-up discussions between Zelenskyy and Trump.
• Potential shifts in US policy towards Russia or Ukraine.
• Impact of internal Russian incidents on public opinion or security.
• Developments regarding the explosion in Iran.
• Implementation and impact of EU aid to Moldova.
• Outcomes of the Wargaming/Lesta legal dispute.
• Continued reports on the humanitarian situation in occupied territories.
• Potential investigations or international responses to the alleged killing of a surrendered POW.
• Continued intensity of fighting on key axes.
• Further Russian efforts in Sumy Oblast.

Potential Indicators

• Independent reporting or satellite imagery confirming or contradicting Russian claims of full control over Kursk Oblast.
• Official statements from North Korea regarding their military involvement.
• Public statements or policy changes from the US government.
• Official investigations or legal actions within Russia regarding recent internal incidents.
• Changes in Moldova's military posture or Russian rhetoric concerning Moldova.
• Progress or outcomes in the Wargaming/Lesta legal case.
• Changes in the reported humanitarian situation in Mariupol.
• Any investigations or international responses to the alleged killing of a surrendered POW.
• Further information on the cause and attributed responsibility for the explosion in Iran.
• Changes in the intensity or location of combat operations on key axes.