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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-26 11:02:58Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-26 10:32:58Z)

Military Intelligence Briefing: Operational Updates

Key Strategic Shifts and Confirmed Information

Significant operational changes have been reported, primarily focused on the Kursk Oblast border region.

  • Russia Claims Completion of Operation in Kursk Oblast: Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov has formally reported to President Putin the "completion of the operation to liberate Kursk Oblast from the AFU." This claim is a major assertion of a strategic victory, indicating Russian forces believe they have fully expelled Ukrainian forces from Russian territory in this region. This was reported by multiple Russian state media and military blogger sources. (TASS, Operation Z: RVvoenkor, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, WarGonzo, ASTRA, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Сливочный каприз, НгП раZVедка)
  • Ukrainian Counter-Narrative and Contested Claim: Ukrainian sources immediately countered the Russian claim. The Ukrainian General Staff's morning report stated that Ukrainian forces "continue to restrain the invaders on the Kursk direction," and that on the previous day, the enemy conducted significant air and shelling attacks, with Ukrainian defenders stopping 30 assaults. Ukrainian sources also note that DeepState maps still show two districts of Kursk Oblast as being under AFU control. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO)
  • Russia Claims Capture of Gornal: As part of the claimed completion of the operation, Gerasimov specifically stated that Gornal is the last settlement in Kursk Oblast to be liberated from the AFU, marking the completion of the defeat of the AFU. (TASS, Военкор Котенок, Сливочный каприз, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews) Russian sources, including a video, claim Russian forces (specifically 22nd regiment, 72nd MSD, 40th brigade battalion, 810th brigade, and others) have raised the Russian flag in the central part of Gornal, confirming control of that part of the settlement. (Сливочный каприз, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
  • Russia Claims High Ukrainian Losses in Kursk Oblast: Gerasimov claims that the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 76,000 personnel in the battles in Kursk Oblast. Putin echoed this, stating that Kyiv suffered "huge losses among the most equipped" forces, including those with Western equipment. (TASS, Kotsnews, Operation Z: RVvoenkor, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Mash на Донбассе, Военкор Котенок, ТАСС)
  • Russia Acknowledges Participation of North Korean Forces: In a significant public admission, Gerasimov stated that "KNDR (DPRK) fighters showed high professionalism in the liberation of Kursk Oblast from the AFU" and acted "shoulder to shoulder with Russian troops" showing "steadfastness and heroism." Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova added that Russia "will never forget friends from the DPRK." This is the first public official acknowledgment by Russia of North Korean military involvement in the conflict. (TASS, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Operation Z: RVvoenkor, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Kotsnews, НгП раZVедка, WarGonzo) Russian military bloggers elaborated, claiming North Korean forces, including Spetsnaz, participated in assault operations and the liberation of several settlements, highlighting their high level of training and suggesting they brought their own equipment (SPGs, MLRS, OTRK). (Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка)
  • Russia Claims Ukrainian Plans in Donbas Failed: Gerasimov also claimed that "the plans of the AFU to stop the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Donbas have failed." (TASS)
  • Russia Claims "Operation with a Pipe" Broke Ukrainian Defense in Kursk: Gerasimov mentioned an "operation with a pipe" in Kursk Oblast where Ukrainian defense "collapsed" and a "chaotic retreat" began, resulting in the area of Ukrainian penetration decreasing by 2.5 times in 5 days. (TASS, Alex Parker Returns)
  • Russia Conducts Mopping-Up Operations in Kursk Oblast: Gerasimov stated that areas in Kursk Oblast are being checked, including abandoned buildings and forests, for "remaining solitary AFU soldiers." He also claimed that 19 settlements have been "completely cleared of explosive objects." (TASS, Operation Z: RVvoenkor, Военкор Котенок)
  • Russian Units Credited in Kursk Operation: Putin listed several units that participated in the operation in Kursk Oblast, including the 76th Airborne Division, Marine brigades, "Akhmat" regiment, and volunteers. (TASS, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
  • Continued Russian Activity in Sumy Oblast: Gerasimov stated that the creation of a security zone in Sumy Oblast is "continuing," with four settlements liberated and more than 90 sq km controlled in this region. (Operation Z: RVvoenkor, TASS)
  • Russian Claims of Ukrainian Losses Across Frontlines (April 26): The Russian MoD reports inflicting losses on Ukrainian forces across multiple directions on April 26. Claims include:
    • Belgorod Direction (Sumy Oblast): Up to 35 troops, 1 tank, 1 APC, 2 vehicles, 1 artillery gun, 1 EW station near Miropolskoye, Mikhaylovskoye, and Turya.
    • Zapad Group (Kharkiv, Donetsk): More than 230 troops, 1 Kirpi armored vehicle, 9 pickup trucks, 4 field artillery guns, 4 ammunition depots near Kamenka, Kutkovka, Moskovka, Kupyansk, Kirovsk, and Yampol.
    • Yug Group (Donetsk): Up to 295 troops, 1 HMMWV, 7 vehicles, 5 field artillery guns, 1 AN/TPQ-36 radar, 1 ammunition depot near Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Chasov Yar, Dyleyevka, and Ilyinovka.
    • Tsentr Group (Donetsk): More than 360 troops, 3 armored vehicles, 3 vehicles, 4 artillery guns near Novaya Poltavka, Krasnoarmeysk, Muravka, Dimitrov, Grishino, Novonikolayevka, and Udachnoye.
    • Vostok Group (Donetsk, Zaporozhye): Up to 200 troops, 5 armored vehicles, 12 vehicles, 1 artillery gun, 1 fuel depot near Otradnoye, Volnoye Pole, and Malinovka.
    • Dnepr Group (Zaporozhye, Kherson): Up to 85 troops, 1 armored vehicle, 3 field artillery guns (including 1 M777), 1 EW station, 1 AN/TPQ-36 radar, 1 ammunition depot near Novoandreyevka, Stepnogorsk, Tokarevka, Nikolskoye, and Antonovka.
    • Total Air Defense/Aviation (April 26): 8 JDAM guided bombs, 2 HIMARS rockets, and 236 UAVs downed.
    • Cumulative Russian MoD Claims (Since Special Military Operation Start): 661 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 53,821 UAVs, 605 SAMs, 23,048 tanks/armored vehicles, 1,553 MLRS vehicles, 24,152 artillery guns/mortars, 34,615 support vehicles. (MoD Russia, Colonelcassad)
  • Ukrainian Claims of Russian Losses (April 25): Ukrainian General Staff estimated 1170 Russian personnel neutralized over the past day, along with significant equipment. (Previous Briefing)
  • Tragic Civilian Incident in Russia: A 4-year-old child was killed at an exhibition of captured Ukrainian and NATO equipment in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Russia, when the hatch of an M113 APC reportedly fell on their head. Local reports offer conflicting accounts of the cause. (ASTRA, STERNENKO, RBC-Ukraina, Оперативний ЗСУ)
  • Explosion in Bandar Abbas, Iran: A powerful explosion at the Shahid Rajaee port in Bandar Abbas, Iran, has resulted in an increasing number of casualties, currently reported as 80 injured. Ukrainian sources link it to an alleged underground missile city. (Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad, RBC-Ukraina, Оперативний ЗСУ, TASS)
  • Alleged Killing of Russian EW Developer: Reports continue regarding the alleged death of Yevgeny Rytnikov, a key developer of the "Krasukha" EW system, near Bryansk, reportedly from an explosive device. This incident is not officially confirmed by Russia. (Военкор Котенок, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Alex Parker Returns)
  • Alleged Killing of Cartographer in Russia: Reports claim a 52-year-old cartographer, Konstantin Tokmakov, was allegedly killed by two military personnel in the Vladimir region of Russia while working near a military unit. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
  • Political and Diplomatic Engagements:
    • Zelenskyy and Trump Meeting: President Zelenskyy and Donald Trump held a brief meeting (around 15 minutes) during the funeral ceremony for Pope Francis in Vatican City and agreed to continue talks. (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, TASS, Colonelcassad)
    • European Pressure on US Policy: Heads of parliamentary committees from seven European countries urged the US to adopt a stronger and more unified stance against Russia. (Операция Z: RVvoenkor, Le Monde)
    • EU Military Aid to Moldova: The EU announced a new military support package for Moldova totaling 60 million euros, including 20 million for air defense. Russian sources frame this as creating an "anti-Russian military bridgehead." (Рыбарь, Два майора)
    • Russian SVR Director's Statement: Naryshkin stated the UK may resort to provocations, potentially using chemical weapons in Ukraine. (Colonelcassad)
    • Funeral of Pope Francis: The ceremony is taking place in Vatican City with international delegations, including Zelenskyy and Trump. (РБК-Україна, TASS, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
    • Funeral of Zurab Tsereteli: A separate funeral is held in Tbilisi, Georgia. (TASS)
  • Frontline Activity:
    • Pokrovsk Axis: Remains intense with Russian claims of Ukrainian forces killing a surrendered Russian POW during an evacuation. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
    • Svatove-Kreminna Direction (Luhansk Oblast): Russian sources claim capturing a Swedish Pbv 302 APC and note increased Ukrainian reconnaissance and decreased strike drone use. (Mash на Донбассе)
    • Kostiantynivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources claim striking a Ukrainian logistics hub. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
    • Zaporizhzhia Direction: Russian military blogger reports continued artillery duels, heavy FPV and night drone use by both sides, and difficult fighting around reinforced Ukrainian positions near Mali Tokmachka and Shcherbaky. Claims Russian VKS destroyed a concentration of equipment/personnel in Huliaipole. Reports Russian drone operators hitting 279 targets over the past day. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
  • Logistics and Capabilities:
    • Ukrainian Medical Units: Highlighted by a report on a team of combat medics in Donbas. (Олексій Білошицький)
    • Russian Airborne Divisions Anniversaries: Russian Minister of Defence congratulated the 7th and 106th Guards Airborne Divisions. (MoD Russia)
    • Dispute over Wargaming/Lesta Assets in Russia: Russian Prosecutor General's office is seeking to ban an association including Wargaming.net owners and seize "Lesta" assets, citing alleged extremist activity and links to supporting Ukraine. (Colonelcassad)
  • Civilian Impact and Ethical Considerations:
    • Residents of Mariupol Demanding Housing: Residents in occupied Mariupol whose homes were destroyed are reportedly demanding compensatory housing and protesting new housing being built for mortgages they cannot afford. (ASTRA)
    • Alleged Killing of Surrendered POW: Claim by a Russian military blogger regarding Ukrainian forces killing a surrendered Russian POW on the Pokrovsk axis. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
  • Information Environment: Russian state media and military bloggers are focusing heavily on the claimed liberation of Kursk Oblast, the role of North Korean forces, casualty figures, and diplomatic events (Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, Pope's funeral). Ukrainian sources are countering the Kursk claim, reporting on the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, highlighting the tragic incident in Russia, and showcasing Ukrainian medical personnel. The Wargaming/Lesta dispute is also being reported. Propaganda efforts by both sides continue.

Updated Operational Summary

The most significant and immediately impactful development is the Russian claim of the complete liberation of Kursk Oblast from Ukrainian forces, including the capture of Gornal as the final settlement. This claim, if verified, would represent a notable strategic success for Russia in securing its border region and could influence troop deployments and operational priorities in other areas. However, Ukrainian sources directly contradict this claim, reporting that their forces are still actively engaged in restraining Russian advances in the Kursk direction and that territorial control maps show Ukrainian presence in the region. This creates a significant information disparity that requires further verification.

Adding to the complexity of the information environment, Russia has for the first time officially acknowledged the participation of North Korean military personnel in combat operations against Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast, praising their professionalism and heroism. This admission is a major geopolitical development and could have implications for international relations and the nature of future military assistance to Russia.

Simultaneously, tragic internal incidents within Russia, such as the death of a child at a military exhibition and the alleged killing of a cartographer by military personnel, are emerging, highlighting potential internal security issues and generating negative information points for Russia. Diplomatic activity continues, with a brief but significant meeting between President Zelenskyy and Donald Trump during the Pope's funeral. European nations are also increasing pressure on the US for a stronger stance against Russia, while the EU continues to provide military aid to Moldova, which Russia frames as a strategic threat. The ongoing legal action against Wargaming/Lesta in Russia demonstrates the conflict's impact extending to the business sector. Reports from occupied Mariupol underscore the continuing humanitarian crisis. The claim by a Russian military blogger regarding Ukrainian forces killing a surrendered POW is a serious allegation that requires careful scrutiny and verification due to its potential implications for international law.

On the front lines, intense fighting persists, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, and Russian sources report tactical gains in some areas while highlighting the challenges posed by well-fortified Ukrainian positions. The situation in the Sumy Oblast border region also remains active, with Russia claiming further territorial control as part of its stated goal of creating a security zone.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

  • Kursk Oblast (RU): Russia claims complete liberation and defeat of Ukrainian forces; Ukraine disputes this and reports ongoing resistance and presence. Gornal is claimed as the last liberated settlement by Russia. (TASS, Operation Z: RVvoenkor, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, WarGonzo, ASTRA, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Сливочный каприз, НгП раZVедка, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO)
  • Komsomolsk-on-Amur (RU): Site of a tragic accident at a military exhibition resulting in a child's death. (ASTRA, STERNENKO, RBC-Ukraina, Оперативний ЗСУ)
  • Bandar Abbas (Iran): Location of a powerful explosion at a port with reported numerous casualties. (Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad, RBC-Ukraina, Оперативний ЗСУ, TASS)
  • Bryansk Oblast (RU): Alleged location of the killing of a key Russian EW developer. (Военкор Котенок, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Alex Parker Returns)
  • Vladimir Oblast (RU): Alleged location of the killing of a cartographer by military personnel. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
  • Vatican City: Location of diplomatic meetings, including between Zelenskyy and Trump, and the funeral of Pope Francis. (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, TASS, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна)
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Continued intense ground combat, with a Russian claim of Ukrainian forces killing a surrendered POW. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
  • Svatove-Kreminna Direction: Russian claim of capturing Ukrainian equipment and observations of Ukrainian tactical changes. (Mash на Донбассе)
  • Kostiantynivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian claim of striking a Ukrainian logistics hub. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
  • Sumy Oblast Border Region: Continued Russian activity aimed at creating a security zone, with Russia claiming liberation of four settlements and control of over 90 sq km. (Operation Z: RVvoenkor, TASS)
  • Zaporizhzhia Direction: Continued heavy fighting, artillery duels, and drone use. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
  • Mariupol (Occupied): Ongoing humanitarian issues and residents demanding compensatory housing. (ASTRA)
  • Moldova: Recipient of new EU military aid. (Рыбарь, Два майора)

Potential Future Developments (Updated)

  • Independent verification of Russian claims regarding the complete liberation of Kursk Oblast and the extent of Ukrainian presence.
  • Further details and potential international reactions to Russia's public acknowledgment of North Korean military involvement.
  • Outcomes of subsequent meetings or communications between President Zelenskyy and Donald Trump.
  • Potential shifts in US policy towards Russia or Ukraine following the diplomatic engagements and European pressure.
  • Further information regarding the investigation into the tragic accident in Komsomolsk-on-Amur and its impact on public perception within Russia.
  • Developments in the investigation into the alleged killing of the Russian EW developer and cartographer, potentially revealing internal security dynamics within Russia.
  • Implementation and impact of the new EU military aid package for Moldova and any resulting reactions from Russia.
  • Outcomes of the legal proceedings against Wargaming/Lesta in Russia.
  • Continued reports on the humanitarian situation in occupied territories, particularly Mariupol.
  • Potential investigations or international responses to the allegation of Ukrainian forces killing a surrendered POW.
  • Further information regarding the explosion in Bandar Abbas, Iran, including the cause and any attributed responsibility.
  • Continued intensity of fighting on the Pokrovsk and other key axes, potentially leading to further territorial changes or significant losses.
  • Continued Russian efforts to establish a security zone in Sumy Oblast.

Potential Indicators (Updated)

  • Independent satellite imagery and ground reports confirming or contradicting Russian claims of full control over Kursk Oblast and specifically Gornal.
  • Statements or evidence presented by Ukraine regarding their continued presence or operations in Kursk Oblast.
  • Official statements or reactions from North Korea regarding the acknowledgment of their military's involvement.
  • Public statements or policy changes from the US government following the meetings with Zelenskyy and European officials.
  • The level of coverage and official response within Russia to the tragic accident at the military exhibition.
  • Any official investigations or legal actions taken within Russia regarding the alleged killings of the EW developer and cartographer.
  • Observable changes in Moldova's military posture or Russian rhetoric concerning Moldova following the EU aid.
  • Outcomes of the legal case against Wargaming/Lesta.
  • Changes in the reported humanitarian situation or progress in reconstruction efforts in Mariupol.
  • Any official investigations or international condemnation regarding the alleged killing of a surrendered POW.
  • Official reports on the cause of the explosion in Bandar Abbas, Iran, and any claims of responsibility.
  • Changes in the intensity or location of combat operations on the Pokrovsk, Sumy, and other key axes.
  • Confirmation of the presence and operational impact of North Korean military personnel through independent sources or observed changes in Russian tactics or equipment.

This briefing provides an overview of the updated situation based on the latest available information. Continued monitoring and verification of claims, particularly regarding territorial control and casualty figures, are essential for accurate strategic assessment. The public acknowledgment of North Korean military involvement marks a significant shift in the international dimension of the conflict.

Previous (2025-04-26 10:32:58Z)

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