Operational Intelligence Briefing: April 26, 2025 - Morning Update

Key Developments and Situation Assessment

Multiple reports confirm continued high-intensity combat operations across several key axes, with Russia maintaining offensive pressure while Ukraine focuses on defense and limited counteractions. Significant events overnight and into the morning include:

Widespread Drone Attacks: Russian forces conducted extensive drone strikes across Ukraine. Notable impacts include damage to residential buildings in Kharkiv (Shevchenkivskyi district), with one child injured (acubarotrauma), and a 14-year-old boy suffering acute stress reaction. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast faced significant attacks, particularly in Kamianske where a strike on a nine-story building resulted in one fatality and four injuries (including an 11-year-old girl and a seriously injured woman). Further damage and casualties were reported in Dnipro district (one injured) and Mezheva hromada (one injured, excavator destroyed). Air defense successfully intercepted 11 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Five private houses and a car were damaged in Boryspilskyi district, Kyiv Oblast due to a drone attack. Russia also claims to have destroyed four Ukrainian drones over Crimea in the last hour and 45 drones overnight over Kursk (27), Belgorod (16), Rostov (1), and Lipetsk (1) Oblasts. Ukrainian sources report over ten Shaheds active in Ukrainian airspace over Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Cherkasy oblasts. Russian sources report successful drone strikes against enterprises in Dnipro, Kropyvnytskyi, and Pavlohrad overnight.
Naval Situation Consistent: One Russian Kalibr carrier (up to 6 missiles) remains in the Black Sea, with four ships (two Kalibr carriers, up to 12 missiles) in the Mediterranean. No enemy vessels are reported in the Azov Sea. Russia claims to have destroyed four Ukrainian drones over Crimea in the last hour.
Frontline Activity:
- Pokrovsk Axis: Remains the most intense area, with Ukrainian defenders repelling 44 Russian assault actions over the past day.
- Toretsk Axis: Russian forces conducted 16 attacks, with reports suggesting attempts to advance near Dachne and Toretsk. Rybar reports Russian forces have reached the "Beryozka" children's camp, threatening Ukrainian communications.
- Kursk/Sumy Border Zone: Ukrainian forces continue to hold back Russian assaults, repelling 30 actions yesterday. Russia conducted significant air and artillery strikes (28 airstrikes, 37 КАБs, 370 shellings, 9-13 RSZV) in this area. Rybar reports ongoing fighting for Hornal and advances near Oleshnya, Zhuravka, and Loknya as Russia attempts to create a buffer zone.
- Lyman Axis: Russia conducted 19 attacks, attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses in multiple locations.
- Novopavlivsk Axis: Russia conducted 19 attacks yesterday, reportedly advancing towards Vilne Pole and Otradne. Russian milbloggers claim Sukhoi Su-34 strikes using FAB-500 with UMPK against Ukrainian temporary deployment points in Novopol and Temirovka.
- Orikhiv Axis: Russia attempted four assaults yesterday near Novodanylivka and Stepove. ISW maps indicate a confirmed Ukrainian advance southeast of Mala Tokmachka.
- Kharkiv and Huliaipole Axes: No combat clashes were reported by the Ukrainian General Staff over the past day. However, Kharkiv Oblast experienced significant drone and shelling attacks resulting in civilian casualties and damage (one killed, multiple injured, including two elderly women, and a child with acute stress reaction). Kharkiv Oblast administration reported a Shahed strike on the roadway in Kharkiv city causing stress reaction in a 14-year-old, shelling damage to a household building, house, and garage in Kupyansk, damage to an administrative building in Pysky-Radkivski, damage to a gas pipe and multi-story buildings in Kupyansk, damage to a multi-story building, boiler house, and warehouses in Hrushivka, a drone hitting a car and grass in Prykolotne, forest floor fire from a drone in Novoplatonivka, and multiple house and garage fires from shelling and MLRS in Kupyansk. On the Kupyansk axis, five Russian attacks were repelled near Nova Kruhliakivka yesterday.
- Kupyansk Axis: Five Russian attacks were repelled yesterday near Nova Kruhliakivka.
- Siversk Axis: Five Russian offensive actions were stopped yesterday.
- Kramatorsk Axis: Eight combat clashes occurred around Chasiv Yar and towards Markove and Bila Hora.
- Prydniprovskyi Axis: One unsuccessful Russian attempt to advance was reported.
Personnel and Equipment Losses: The Ukrainian General Staff estimates Russian losses over the past day at 1110 personnel, 8 tanks, 5 armored combat vehicles, 70 artillery systems, 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, 118 UAVs, and 145 vehicles. These figures suggest continued high attrition for Russian forces. The Ukrainian 46th Air Assault Brigade claims to have destroyed a Russian 2S9 Nona self-propelled artillery system using drones. The Ukrainian Azov Brigade claims to be using drones to destroy Russian UAVs. Fighterbomber channel published material on Hero of Russia pilot Ivan Boldyrev, showcasing historical military content.
Cybersecurity/Information Operations: Rybar reports a possible assassination attempt in the Moscow region resulting in the death of the Deputy Head of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Yaroslav Moskalik. Russian sources continue to report on Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, claiming 45 drones were intercepted overnight over Kursk (27), Belgorod (16), Rostov (1), and Lipetsk (1) Oblasts and four over Crimea. They also highlight training for Russian assault units using motocross bikes and report on strikes against Ukrainian positions and infrastructure. Ukrainian sources emphasize Russian losses and the impact of Russian strikes on civilian areas. Basurin highlights historical Russian military victories. A Russian source claims Russia is using a new reactive attack UAV called "Banderol" with a speed of 400-500 km/h, which has been used in Odesa and likely Kharkiv. Ukraine's GUR website lists JSC "Kronstadt" and JSC "KT - Unmanned Systems" as involved in its production. McDonald's has reportedly filed trademark applications in Russia, which some interpret as a potential sign of future re-entry. Russian milbloggers report successful drone strikes on enterprises in Dnipro, Kropyvnytskyi, and Pavlohrad overnight. ASTRA reports the Russian MoD claiming four Ukrainian drones shot down over Crimea overnight. There is a report of a widespread terminal and payment system failure across Ukraine, including "Diia" and "Nova Poshta" applications. KMDA reports issues with metro payment in Kyiv due to an "Oschadbank" technical failure.
Commemoration: Ukraine is commemorating the 39th anniversary of the Chornobyl disaster, with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi issuing a statement honoring the liquidators and drawing parallels between the Soviet regime's deception and current Russian narratives. Kyiv City Military Administration and "Memorial Platform of Remembrance" are honoring fallen defenders from Kyiv, specifically highlighting the sacrifice of Junior Lieutenant Leonid Rozmaityi. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration is also observing a minute of silence daily at 9:00 to honor fallen defenders.
Diplomatic/Political: ISW reports on varying perspectives on potential peace terms, including alleged US proposals involving potential recognition of Russian control over Crimea (rejected by Ukraine). A Russian source claims Ukraine is sabotaging all negotiations, believes in a winning scenario, and is preparing for another offensive by autumn. They also claim Ukraine stated it will never recognize any part of its territory as Russian (including Crimea), will not accept limitations on joining NATO/EU, and will not reduce its army or military industry. Donald Trump is reported to have stated that Ukraine and Russia are "very close to an agreement" and should meet to "put an end" to the war, claiming most key points are agreed and they should meet at a very high level. Trump stated his agreement with Zelenskyy that Ukraine lacks weapons to retake Crimea but has diplomatic opportunities after a ceasefire. Ukraine's President Zelenskyy has arrived in Rome with the First Lady and a Ukrainian delegation to participate in the farewell ceremony for Pope Francis. There is a report that the US has privately expressed readiness to assist a "Coalition of the Willing" in Ukraine with intelligence and logistical support to ensure a possible peace agreement, but US intervention if Russia attacks coalition forces remains a critical question. A Ukrainian religious scholar suggests the new Pope should clearly name Russia as the aggressor.
Capabilities: Ukraine's Azov Brigade claims to be using drones to destroy Russian UAVs. Sternenko's project highlights the need for 3040 more drones based on 97 open requests and encourages donations for "Rusoriz" (Russian cutter) drones. The US has reportedly expressed readiness to assist a "Coalition of the Willing" with intelligence and logistical support. Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces personnel from the Kharkiv grouping are sharing experiences and training details.
Infrastructure Issues: A widespread terminal and payment system failure is reported across Ukraine, impacting various services.

Operational Summary

Russian forces are maintaining pressure across multiple fronts, with a significant focus on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, attempting to achieve incremental gains through persistent assaults and heavy air/artillery support. The intensification of fighting in the Kursk/Sumy border region indicates a deliberate effort by Russia to push into Ukrainian territory and potentially create a buffer zone, drawing Ukrainian resources to this area. Widespread and damaging Russian drone attacks against civilian infrastructure and urban centers continue to inflict casualties and damage, with reports of a new reactive "Banderol" UAV and claimed strikes against enterprises in key cities. Ukrainian forces are actively defending, inflicting significant reported losses on Russian personnel and equipment, and are adapting tactics with units like the 46th Air Assault Brigade effectively using drones against Russian assets and the Azov Brigade countering Russian UAVs. Recent reports of damage and casualties in Kharkiv Oblast highlight the continued targeting of this region with various means. The naval posture remains consistent, posing a continued threat of Kalibr missile strikes, and Russia claims successful interceptions of Ukrainian drones over Crimea. The conflict continues to have a severe humanitarian impact, with civilian casualties reported in multiple oblasts from recent strikes. The information space remains highly contested, with both sides promoting their narratives and highlighting claimed successes and enemy losses, including conflicting reports on the prospects of peace negotiations, with notable statements from Donald Trump suggesting a push towards a high-level meeting. Ukraine's firm diplomatic stance on territorial integrity and military capabilities, as reported by a Russian source, contrasts with some international reports of potential concessions and suggests a likely continuation of military conflict, although the US is reportedly exploring support for a "Coalition of the Willing" related to a peace agreement. Ukrainian efforts to acquire more drones through fundraising highlight the continued reliance on this technology for defense and offense. The widespread terminal and payment system failure across Ukraine is a significant internal issue that warrants investigation, potentially related to cyber activity or technical problems. Commemoration efforts across Ukraine honor fallen defenders and acknowledge the human cost of the conflict.

Areas of Significant Activity

Pokrovsk Axis: Highest intensity ground combat with numerous Russian assaults.
Toretsk Axis: Ongoing Russian offensive operations and reported advances threatening Ukrainian communications.
Kursk/Sumy Border Zone: High intensity ground combat, significant Russian air/artillery strikes, and Russian claims of advances.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kamianske, Dnipro district, Mezheva hromada): Targeted by Russian drone attacks resulting in fatalities, injuries (including a child), and infrastructure damage. Claimed strikes on enterprises in Dnipro and Pavlohrad.
Kharkiv Oblast: Targeted by drone attacks and shelling causing civilian casualties (including a child with acubarotrauma and a boy with acute stress reaction) and damage to residential buildings, administrative structures, and infrastructure. Targeted by the alleged "Banderol" UAV.
Kyiv Oblast (Boryspilskyi district): Targeted by drone attack causing damage to private houses and a car.
Lyman and Novopavlivsk Axes: Continued high volume of Russian attacks. Claimed Su-34 strikes on temporary deployment points on the Novopavlivsk axis.
Orikhiv Axis: Increased Russian assault attempts and a confirmed Ukrainian advance near Mala Tokmachka.
Kropyvnytskyi: Claimed Russian drone strikes on enterprises.
Crimea: Russian claims of successful interception of Ukrainian drones.

Force Composition and Tactics

Russia: Utilizing mass drone attacks (Shaheds, FPVs, reported new "Banderol" reactive UAV), combined air/artillery strikes with ground assaults, significant use of guided aerial bombs (КАБs) in border regions, adapting tactics with the use of motocross bikes for assault units, and employing BMP-3s in training/operations. Continuing information operations to control narratives and claim successes, including highlighting historical military victories. Employing a new reactive UAV with reported high speed. Conducting strikes against enterprises in key Ukrainian cities. Utilizing Su-34 aircraft with FAB-500 with UMPK against temporary deployment points. Claims successful air defense against Ukrainian drones over Russian territory and occupied Crimea.
Ukraine: Employing air defense effectively against large drone attacks (including countering Russian UAVs with their own drones), conducting defensive operations to repel numerous assaults, utilizing drones (including potentially new aircraft-type FPVs and reported use of fiber-optic drones in border areas) for reconnaissance, targeting (e.g., 2S9 Nona), and strikes against Russian equipment and personnel, actively working to inflict high personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces, and commemorating historical events and fallen soldiers to bolster national identity and morale. Forming a new ground drone unit. Addressing logistical needs through fundraising for drones. Maintaining a firm diplomatic stance on territorial integrity and military capabilities. Territorial Defense Forces are active in defense and training. Potential for US intelligence and logistical support to a "Coalition of the Willing."

Strategic Considerations

The high number of Russian assaults across multiple axes, particularly on Pokrovsk and Toretsk, indicates the main thrust of their current ground offensive.
The intensified activity and claimed advances in the Kursk/Sumy border zone suggest a potential strategic shift or effort to create a buffer zone and stretch Ukrainian resources.
The sustained and widespread nature of Russian drone and missile attacks highlights a strategy to degrade infrastructure, exert pressure on civilian populations, and potentially target military assets in rear areas. The reported use of a new reactive UAV suggests adaptation in their aerial attack capabilities. Claimed strikes against enterprises suggest targeting of industrial capacity.
The reported high rate of Russian personnel and equipment losses, if accurate, raises questions about the sustainability of their offensive operations and potential long-term impact on their military capabilities.
The ongoing diplomatic discussions and varying international perspectives on peace terms, including reported pressure for concessions and conflicting statements from key international figures like Donald Trump, underscore the complex political dimension of the conflict and potential challenges in finding a negotiated resolution. Ukraine's reported firm stance indicates a low likelihood of a negotiated settlement on Russian terms in the near future, although discussions about a "Coalition of the Willing" for a potential peace agreement suggest ongoing efforts to find a resolution framework.
Ukraine's emphasis on adapting tactics, utilizing drones, and addressing logistical needs through various means reflects efforts to maintain operational effectiveness and counter Russian advantages.
The widespread terminal and payment system failure across Ukraine presents a significant internal challenge with potential implications for economic stability, logistics, and public morale, and warrants investigation into its cause, including potential cyberattacks.

Potential Future Developments

Continued high-intensity fighting on the Eastern and Southern fronts, with incremental territorial changes.
Potential for further escalation and intensified ground operations in the border regions between Ukraine and Russia.
Ongoing large-scale Russian drone and missile attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure and urban centers, potentially incorporating new types of UAVs and targeting industrial facilities.
Continued adaptation of tactics and increased use of advanced technologies, particularly drones, by both sides, including efforts to counter enemy UAVs.
Continued focus on information operations and countering narratives by both sides.
Continued diplomatic efforts regarding peace negotiations, potentially influenced by statements from key international figures and discussions around frameworks like a "Coalition of the Willing," but a low likelihood of significant progress towards a negotiated settlement on Russian terms in the short term.
Potential for further internal infrastructure disruptions in Ukraine, possibly related to cyber activity.
Continued commemoration of fallen soldiers and efforts to document the human cost of the conflict.