Operational Intelligence Briefing: April 26, 2025 - Morning Update
Key Developments and Situation Assessment
Multiple reports confirm continued high-intensity combat operations across several key axes, with Russia maintaining offensive pressure while Ukraine focuses on defense and limited counteractions. Significant events overnight and into the morning include:
Widespread Drone Attacks: Russian forces conducted extensive drone strikes across Ukraine. Notable impacts include damage to residential buildings in Kharkiv (Shevchenkivskyi district), with one child injured (acubarotrauma), and a 14-year-old boy suffering acute stress reaction. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast faced significant attacks, particularly in Kamianske where a strike on a nine-story building resulted in one fatality and four injuries (including an 11-year-old girl and a seriously injured woman). Further damage and casualties were reported in Dnipro district (one injured) and Mezheva hromada (one injured, excavator destroyed). Air defense successfully intercepted 11 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Five private houses and a car were damaged in Boryspilskyi district, Kyiv Oblast due to a drone attack. Russia also claims to have destroyed four Ukrainian drones over Crimea in the last hour and 45 drones overnight over Kursk (27), Belgorod (16), Rostov (1), and Lipetsk (1) Oblasts. Ukrainian sources report over ten Shaheds active in Ukrainian airspace over Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Cherkasy oblasts.
Naval Situation Consistent: One Russian Kalibr carrier (up to 6 missiles) remains in the Black Sea, with four ships (two Kalibr carriers, up to 12 missiles) in the Mediterranean. No enemy vessels are reported in the Azov Sea.
Frontline Activity:
Pokrovsk Axis: Remains the most intense area, with Ukrainian defenders repelling 44 Russian assault actions over the past day.
Toretsk Axis: Russian forces conducted 16 attacks, with reports suggesting attempts to advance near Dachne and Toretsk. Rybar reports Russian forces have reached the "Beryozka" children's camp, threatening Ukrainian communications.
Kursk/Sumy Border Zone: Ukrainian forces continue to hold back Russian assaults, repelling 30 actions yesterday. Russia conducted significant air and artillery strikes (28 airstrikes, 37 КАБs, 370 shellings, 9-13 RSZV) in this area. Rybar reports ongoing fighting for Hornal and advances near Oleshnya, Zhuravka, and Loknya as Russia attempts to create a buffer zone.
Lyman Axis: Russia conducted 19 attacks, attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses in multiple locations.
Novopavlivsk Axis: Russia conducted 19 attacks yesterday, reportedly advancing towards Vilne Pole and Otradne.
Orikhiv Axis: Russia attempted four assaults yesterday near Novodanylivka and Stepove. ISW maps indicate a confirmed Ukrainian advance southeast of Mala Tokmachka.
Kharkiv and Huliaipole Axes: No combat clashes were reported by the Ukrainian General Staff over the past day. However, Kharkiv Oblast experienced significant drone and shelling attacks resulting in civilian casualties and damage (one killed, multiple injured, including two elderly women, and a child with acute stress reaction).
Kupyansk Axis: Five Russian attacks were repelled yesterday.
Siversk Axis: Five Russian offensive actions were stopped yesterday.
Kramatorsk Axis: Eight combat clashes occurred around Chasiv Yar and towards Markove and Bila Hora.
Prydniprovskyi Axis: One unsuccessful Russian attempt to advance was reported.
Personnel and Equipment Losses: The Ukrainian General Staff estimates Russian losses over the past day at 1110 personnel, 8 tanks, 5 armored combat vehicles, 70 artillery systems, 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, 118 UAVs, and 145 vehicles. These figures suggest continued high attrition for Russian forces. The Ukrainian 46th Air Assault Brigade claims to have destroyed a Russian 2S9 Nona self-propelled artillery system using drones.
Cybersecurity/Information Operations: Rybar reports a possible assassination attempt in the Moscow region resulting in the death of the Deputy Head of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Yaroslav Moskalik. Russian sources continue to report on Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, claiming 45 drones were intercepted overnight over Kursk (27), Belgorod (16), Rostov (1), and Lipetsk (1) Oblasts and four over Crimea. They also highlight training for Russian assault units using motocross bikes and report on strikes against Ukrainian positions and infrastructure. Ukrainian sources emphasize Russian losses and the impact of Russian strikes on civilian areas. Basurin highlights historical Russian military victories. A Russian source claims Russia is using a new reactive attack UAV called "Banderol" with a speed of 400-500 km/h, which has been used in Odesa and likely Kharkiv. Ukraine's GUR website lists JSC "Kronstadt" and JSC "KT - Unmanned Systems" as involved in its production. McDonald's has reportedly filed trademark applications in Russia, which some interpret as a potential sign of future re-entry.
Commemoration: Ukraine is commemorating the 39th anniversary of the Chornobyl disaster, with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi issuing a statement honoring the liquidators and drawing parallels between the Soviet regime's deception and current Russian narratives.
Diplomatic/Political: ISW reports on varying perspectives on potential peace terms, including alleged US proposals involving potential recognition of Russian control over Crimea (rejected by Ukraine). A Russian source claims Ukraine is sabotaging all negotiations, believes in a winning scenario, and is preparing for another offensive by autumn. They also claim Ukraine stated it will never recognize any part of its territory as Russian (including Crimea), will not accept limitations on joining NATO/EU, and will not reduce its army or military industry. Donald Trump is reported to have stated that Ukraine and Russia are "very close to an agreement" and should meet to "put an end" to the war.
Capabilities: Ukraine's Azov Brigade claims to be using drones to destroy Russian UAVs. Sternenko's project highlights the need for 3040 more drones based on 97 open requests and encourages donations for "Rusoriz" (Russian cutter) drones.
Operational Summary
Russian forces are maintaining pressure across multiple fronts, with a significant focus on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, attempting to achieve incremental gains through persistent assaults and heavy air/artillery support. The intensification of fighting in the Kursk/Sumy border region indicates a deliberate effort by Russia to push into Ukrainian territory and potentially create a buffer zone, drawing Ukrainian resources to this area. Widespread and damaging Russian drone attacks against civilian infrastructure and urban centers continue to inflict casualties and damage, with reports of a new reactive "Banderol" UAV. Ukrainian forces are actively defending, inflicting significant reported losses on Russian personnel and equipment, and are adapting tactics with units like the 46th Air Assault Brigade effectively using drones against Russian assets and the Azov Brigade countering Russian UAVs. The naval posture remains consistent, posing a continued threat of Kalibr missile strikes. The conflict continues to have a severe humanitarian impact, with civilian casualties reported in multiple oblasts from recent strikes. The information space remains highly contested, with both sides promoting their narratives and highlighting claimed successes and enemy losses, including conflicting reports on the prospects of peace negotiations. Ukraine's firm diplomatic stance on territorial integrity and military capabilities, as reported by a Russian source, contrasts with some international reports of potential concessions and suggests a likely continuation of military conflict. Ukrainian efforts to acquire more drones through fundraising highlight the continued reliance on this technology for defense and offense.
Areas of Significant Activity
Pokrovsk Axis: Highest intensity ground combat with numerous Russian assaults.
Kursk/Sumy Border Zone: High intensity ground combat, significant Russian air/artillery strikes, and Russian claims of advances.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kamianske, Dnipro district, Mezheva hromada): Targeted by Russian drone attacks resulting in fatalities, injuries (including a child), and infrastructure damage.
Kharkiv Oblast: Targeted by drone attacks and shelling causing civilian casualties (including a child with acubarotrauma and a boy with acute stress reaction) and damage.
Kyiv Oblast (Boryspilskyi district): Targeted by drone attack causing damage to private houses and a car.
Lyman and Novopavlivsk Axes: Continued high volume of Russian attacks.
Orikhiv Axis: Increased Russian assault attempts and a confirmed Ukrainian advance near Mala Tokmachka.
Force Composition and Tactics
Russia: Utilizing mass drone attacks (Shaheds, FPVs, reported new "Banderol" reactive UAV), combined air/artillery strikes with ground assaults, significant use of guided aerial bombs (КАБs) in border regions, adapting tactics with the use of motocross bikes for assault units, and employing BMP-3s in training/operations. Continuing information operations to control narratives and claim successes, including highlighting historical military victories. Employing a new reactive UAV with reported high speed.
Ukraine: Employing air defense effectively against large drone attacks (including countering Russian UAVs with their own drones), conducting defensive operations to repel numerous assaults, utilizing drones (including potentially new aircraft-type FPVs and reported use of fiber-optic drones in border areas) for reconnaissance, targeting (e.g., 2S9 Nona), and strikes against Russian equipment and personnel, actively working to inflict high personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces, and commemorating historical events to bolster national identity and morale. Forming a new ground drone unit. Addressing logistical needs through fundraising for drones. Maintaining a firm diplomatic stance on territorial integrity and military capabilities.
Strategic Considerations
The high number of Russian assaults across multiple axes, particularly on Pokrovsk and Toretsk, indicates the main thrust of their current ground offensive.
The intensified activity and claimed advances in the Kursk/Sumy border zone suggest a potential strategic shift or effort to create a buffer zone and stretch Ukrainian resources.
The sustained and widespread nature of Russian drone and missile attacks highlights a strategy to degrade infrastructure, exert pressure on civilian populations, and potentially target military assets in rear areas. The reported use of a new reactive UAV suggests adaptation in their aerial attack capabilities.
The reported high rate of Russian personnel and equipment losses, if accurate, raises questions about the sustainability of their offensive operations and potential long-term impact on their military capabilities.
The ongoing diplomatic discussions and varying international perspectives on peace terms, including reported pressure for concessions and conflicting statements from key international figures, underscore the complex political dimension of the conflict and potential challenges in finding a negotiated resolution. Ukraine's reported firm stance indicates a low likelihood of a negotiated settlement on Russian terms in the near future.
Ukraine's emphasis on adapting tactics, utilizing drones, and addressing logistical needs through various means reflects efforts to maintain operational effectiveness and counter Russian advantages.
Potential Future Developments
Continued high-intensity fighting on the Eastern and Southern fronts, with incremental territorial changes.
Potential for further escalation and intensified ground operations in the border regions between Ukraine and Russia.
Ongoing large-scale Russian drone and missile attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure and urban centers, potentially incorporating new types of UAVs.
Continued adaptation of tactics and increased use of advanced technologies, particularly drones, by both sides, including efforts to counter enemy UAVs.
Continued focus on information operations and countering narratives by both sides.
Low likelihood of significant progress in peace negotiations in the short term given the reported divergence in positions and Ukraine's firm stance.
