Archived operational intelligence briefing
Russian forces continue a large-scale, multi-vector UAV attack across Ukraine. Current Shahed drone activity is dynamic, with groups tracked in:
These movements indicate continued targeting efforts across central, northeastern, and potentially western Ukraine. This follows the massive combined missile and drone attack on April 24 using over 200 air targets (missiles including ballistic, and drones). Ukrainian air defense forces intercepted 112 aerial targets during that attack, but impacts resulted in severe damage and casualties across Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia. KAB launches continue to target Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts in support of ground operations. Russian Kalibr carriers remain active in the Black Sea and Mediterranean.
High-intensity combat persists across multiple axes, with nearly 150 Russian attacks and over 4500 shellings reported yesterday. The Pokrovsk axis remains the area of highest intensity, with numerous Russian assault actions repelled. The Toretsk axis has seen continued Russian pressure and claimed advances, including confirmed control of Sukha Balka by Russian forces, with ongoing fighting reported near Dyleevka/Dachne and Sukha Balka, and attempts at flanking maneuvers. On the Novopavlivsk/South Donetsk axis, fighting continues, with Russian claims of repelling Ukrainian counterattacks near Bohatyr and Otradnoye and attempts to advance into Bohatyr. Other active axes include Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia (reports of increased Russian assault activity), Huliaipole, and cross-border operations in the Kursk/Sumy zone. President Zelenskyy reported that Russian attempts at ground assaults during yesterday's massive air strike were repelled. Ukrainian SSO claimed the destruction of a North Korean military personnel platoon in Kursk Oblast last month.
The ongoing large-scale Russian UAV and missile attacks cause significant civilian casualties and damage. The massive attack on April 24 resulted in 9 fatalities and 63 injured in Kyiv (including six children and a pregnant woman), with damage to residential buildings and infrastructure across multiple districts. Russian Smerch MLRS strikes yesterday on Kostiantynivka killed two civilians, including a child. Previous impacts in Kharkiv caused fires, damage to enterprises and private houses, and casualties. Ukraine's Prime Minister stated 13,000 civilians, including 618 children, have been killed since the start of the full-scale war.
Ukrainian forces continue effective air defense and electronic warfare, though the scale of Russian attacks highlights critical needs for interceptors and systems. Drone operations remain essential for reconnaissance, targeting, and direct action, necessitating continued external support and domestic production efforts. Ukraine successfully struck the Yelabuga UAV plant and inflicted significant losses on the Pokrovsk axis yesterday (349 personnel, 7 vehicles). Ukrainian Air Assault Forces have reorganized into a Corps system, including a newly formed 8th Corps, indicating adaptation in force structure.
A Russian military source (Voin DV) has publicly appealed to Russian enterprises for donations of metal (several tons, 3mm thickness) and lids for dynamic protection boxes (Kontakt-1), providing contact information. This specific request for basic materials and components from civilian enterprises indicates potential supply chain gaps or logistical shortcomings within the Russian military procurement system for essential battlefield items, or potentially a surge requirement not being met by central supply channels.
Russian forces continue large-scale combined air attacks, tactical aviation, and use drones extensively. Russian sources claim effectiveness against Ukrainian assets.
Potential discussions and pressure regarding peace negotiations continue amidst conflicting signals. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov publicly reiterated Russia's readiness for a deal on Ukraine, stating there are "elements" that need to be finalized. Crucially, he praised Donald Trump, calling him the "only world leader" who understands the need to eliminate the "root causes" of the Ukrainian crisis, and stated that Trump is right that the US and Russia are moving in the correct direction on settlement. Lavrov also repeated the standard Russian narrative that Russia only strikes military targets or civilian targets used by the military, contradicting confirmed civilian casualties. Reports from CNN, citing diplomatic sources, indicate that US allies are alarmed by potential plans from Donald Trump regarding recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and Russian control over Donbas and Novorossiya.
European nations have warned the US they will not recognize annexed Crimea. Ukraine maintains that peace talks require a full ceasefire and exclude territorial concessions. Diplomatic engagements, including President Zelenskyy's meetings, continue to build support for Ukraine's position.
Joint Ukrainian/international operations against hacker groups continue. Allegations of torture by Russian security services persist. Ukraine is investigating the death of journalist Viktoriia Roshchina in Russian captivity as a war crime.
Russia's FSB claimed preventing terrorist attacks. Temporary mobile internet restrictions are in place in some Russian border regions. Russian Defence Minister Shoigu claimed measures have been taken to protect the Russian segment of the internet.
Ukrainian forces adapt tactics, increasing drone reliance and focusing recruitment on specialized units and reorganized force structures. Ukraine is boosting domestic ammunition production and investigating foreign components in Russian weapons. Russian forces adapt by employing large-scale combined air attacks, using drones in coordinated ground assaults, and seeking adaptive logistical solutions, as evidenced by the public appeal for dynamic protection components. Russian sources discuss adapting tactics and equipment.
Ukraine prioritizes domestic production and seeks external aid and technical cooperation. Recruitment drives highlight personnel needs. Russia proposes payments for personnel in border regions. Reports of significant missing Russian personnel highlight potential human resource issues. The public appeal by a Russian source for dynamic protection components from civilian enterprises indicates specific material needs potentially exceeding or bypassing standard military supply chains, pointing to potential localized or systemic logistical pressures.
Operational reports, diplomatic engagements, and information operations continue. The structure from battlefield command to political leadership facilitates communication. Joint security operations highlight international coordination.
Human commanders direct operations with high-level political leaders engaged in strategic decisions.
Efforts to disrupt cybercrime and protect critical infrastructure continue in coordination with international partners. Sanctions aim to limit Russia's access to military components. Russia maintains pervasive state information control and implements operational security measures.
The workflow involves data collection, analysis, reporting, visualization, and adaptation based on feedback and outcomes, encompassing military, political, and security dimensions. The public appeal for specific material components by a Russian source suggests an ad-hoc element within the operational workflow for meeting urgent logistical needs.
Continued large-scale, multi-vector Russian air/drone attacks, particularly targeting urban centers, indicate a sustained strategy to exert pressure and degrade infrastructure. High intensity on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes points to prioritized offensive efforts in Donbas. The confirmed Russian tactic of combining ground assaults with massive air strikes suggests this adaptive approach may recur. The public appeal by a Russian source for dynamic protection components from civilian enterprises is a specific indicator of potential Russian logistical bottlenecks or supply chain issues for essential battlefield items, requiring alternative procurement methods.
Significant developments in the political and diplomatic sphere are critical indicators. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's statements explicitly praising Donald Trump and aligning Russia's negotiation stance with Trump's rhetoric ("root causes," "moving in the correct direction") signal a concerted Russian effort to influence the US political landscape and shape future potential negotiations on favorable terms. The reported alarm among US allies regarding Trump's potential plans for recognizing Russian territorial claims (Crimea, Donbas/Novorossiya) further underscores the potential for shifts in international support dynamics and pressure on Ukraine regarding territorial concessions. These developments suggest a challenging diplomatic environment ahead for Ukraine.
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