Archived operational intelligence briefing
Russian forces continue a large-scale, multi-vector UAV attack across Ukraine. Current Shahed drone activity is concentrated in Cherkasy Oblast (moving southwest, specifically towards Uman), Kharkiv Oblast (moving south from the north), and Poltava Oblast (from Sumy Oblast moving south/southwest), with detections also noted towards Kyiv Oblast (specifically Bila Tserkva). A group previously tracked southwest of Smila (Cherkasy) is approaching Uman. Another group west of Kharkiv is moving southeast. These movements indicate continued targeting efforts across central and northeastern Ukraine. This follows previous waves of Shahed activity and the major combined missile and drone attacks noted in prior reporting. KAB launches continue to target Donetsk Oblast in support of ground operations. Russian Kalibr carriers remain active in the Black Sea and Mediterranean.
High-intensity combat persists across multiple axes. The Pokrovsk axis remains the area of highest intensity. On the Novopavlivsk/South Donetsk axis, Russian forces claim to have repelled Ukrainian counterattacks east and southeast of Bohatyr and south of Otradnoye. Russian assault groups claim to be attacking Bohatyr from the east and south, having secured positions along the road and pushing into a treeline towards the settlement. Intense fighting continues in this sector. Russian sources previously claimed advances near Bohatyr and Otradnoye. Other active axes include Toretsk (reports of RU advances near Dyleevka/Dachne and Sukha Balka), Lyman, Siversk, and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian General Staff reports nearly 150 Russian attacks and over 4500 shellings yesterday. President Zelenskyy reported that Russian attempts at ground assaults during yesterday's massive air strike were repelled.
The ongoing large-scale Russian UAV and missile attack is causing significant civilian casualties and damage. Impacts in Kharkiv were confirmed last night, causing fires and damage to enterprises and private houses, with casualties being clarified. This follows the severe impacts of previous attacks across Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia, resulting in confirmed fatalities and numerous injuries, including children, and widespread damage to residential buildings and critical infrastructure. Russian Smerch MLRS strikes yesterday on Kostiantynivka killed two civilians, including a child. Ukraine's Prime Minister stated 13,000 civilians, including 618 children, have been killed since the start of the full-scale war.
Ukrainian forces continue effective air defense and electronic warfare, though the scale of Russian attacks highlights critical needs for interceptors and systems. Drone operations remain essential. Ukraine successfully struck the Yelabuga UAV plant. Commendation of Ukrainian brigades, including a dedicated drone unit (59th Separate Assault Brigade of Unmanned Systems), underscores their critical role. Forensic investigation of downed Russian weapons aims to identify third-country components.
A Russian military source (Voin DV) is publicly appealing to Russian enterprises for donations of metal (several tons, 3mm thickness) and lids for dynamic protection boxes (Kontakt-1), providing contact information and offering to share dxf files. This specific request for basic materials and components for vehicle protection systems directly from civilian enterprises indicates potential supply chain gaps or logistical shortcomings within the Russian military procurement system for essential battlefield items, or potentially a surge requirement not being met by central supply.
Russian forces continue large-scale combined air attacks. Russian sources claim effectiveness against Ukrainian assets, including drones. Russian Minister of Defence Shoigu claimed measures have been taken to protect the Russian segment of the internet.
Potential discussions and pressure regarding peace negotiations continue. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an interview with CBS, reiterated Russia's readiness for a deal on Ukraine but stated there are "elements" that need to be finalized. He praised Donald Trump, calling him the "only world leader" who understands the need to eliminate the "root causes" of the Ukrainian crisis, and stated that Trump is right that the US and Russia are moving in the correct direction on settlement. Lavrov also repeated the standard Russian narrative that Russia only strikes military targets or civilian targets used by the military, contradicting confirmed civilian casualties. These statements reinforce Russia's diplomatic messaging aimed at influencing international perceptions, particularly regarding potential US involvement in peace processes.
European nations have warned the US they will not recognize annexed Crimea. Ukraine maintains that peace talks require a full ceasefire and exclude territorial concessions. Ukraine's government has presented evidence of Chinese company support for Russia's military-industrial complex to the Chinese envoy. Hungarian PM Orbán publicly opposes Ukraine's EU accession.
Joint Ukrainian/international operations against hacker groups continue. Allegations of torture by Russian security services persist. Ukraine is investigating the death of journalist Viktoriia Roshchina in Russian captivity as a war crime.
Russia's FSB claimed preventing terrorist attacks in Nizhny Novgorod region. Temporary mobile internet restrictions are in place in some Russian border regions. Russian Defence Minister Shoigu stated measures protect the Russian internet segment.
Ukrainian forces adapt tactics, increasing drone reliance and focusing recruitment on specialized units. Ukraine is boosting domestic ammunition production and investigating foreign components in Russian weapons. Russian forces adapt by employing large-scale combined air attacks and using drones in coordinated ground assaults. Russian sources discuss adapting tactics and equipment (e.g., ZU-23 for drone defense, FPVs on fiber optics) and issue tactical reminders based on battlefield experience. The specific request for dynamic protection components suggests an identified battlefield need and a reliance on non-standard procurement channels to meet it.
Ukraine prioritizes domestic production and seeks external aid. Recruitment drives highlight personnel needs. Russia proposes payments for personnel in border regions. Reports of significant missing Russian personnel highlight potential human resource issues. The public appeal by a Russian source for dynamic protection components from civilian enterprises indicates specific material needs potentially exceeding or bypassing standard military supply chains, pointing to potential localized or systemic logistical pressures.
Operational reports, diplomatic engagements, and information operations continue. The structure from battlefield command to political leadership facilitates communication. Joint security operations highlight international coordination.
Human commanders direct operations with high-level political leaders engaged in strategic decisions.
Efforts to disrupt cybercrime and protect critical infrastructure continue. Sanctions aim to limit Russia's access to military components. Russia maintains information control and implements operational security measures like internet restrictions.
The workflow involves data collection, analysis, reporting, visualization, and adaptation based on feedback and outcomes, encompassing military, political, and security dimensions. The public appeal for specific material components by a Russian source suggests an ad-hoc element within the operational workflow for meeting urgent logistical needs.
Continued large-scale, multi-vector Russian air/drone attacks, particularly targeting urban centers, indicate a sustained strategy. High intensity on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes points to prioritized offensive efforts in Donbas. The confirmed Russian tactic of combining ground assaults with massive air strikes suggests this adaptive approach may recur. Significant issues within Russian personnel management (missing personnel reports, treatment of volunteers) suggest potential long-term weaknesses despite current offensive capacity. Continued reliance on volunteer/humanitarian fundraising for specific Russian unit equipment suggests ongoing logistical challenges. The public appeal for dynamic protection components is a specific indicator of this, potentially highlighting a particular vulnerability or bottleneck in armored vehicle protection or repair. Complexities in Western aid/negotiation discussions and Trump's public stance signal potential shifts in international support dynamics. Hungarian opposition signals challenges to Ukraine's EU path. Ukraine's investigation into foreign components indicates a strategic focus on disrupting Russian supply chains. Russian statements on negotiation readiness, especially validating Trump's approach, suggest efforts to influence diplomatic dynamics.
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