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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-24 08:16:36Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-24 07:46:27Z)

Military Situation Assessment

Strategic and Air Warfare

Russia conducted a significant combined air attack across Ukraine on April 24, utilizing approximately 70 missiles and 145 drones (total 215 targets detected), primarily directed towards Kyiv. The attack involved a mix of ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23), cruise missiles (Kh-101, Iskander-K, Kalibr), guided aviation missiles (Kh-59/X-69), and a large number of Shahed/imitator drones launched from various locations.

Ukrainian air defense forces reported successfully intercepting 112 aerial targets: 7/11 Iskander-M/KN-23, 31/37 Kh-101, 6/12 Kalibr, 4/4 Iskander-K, and 64/145 Shahed/imitators. An additional 68 drone imitators were locationally lost without consequence. Ukrainian Air Force pilots, including F-16 and Mirage platforms, participated in the defense. Affected regions included Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, Kharkiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine reported damage to critical and civilian infrastructure across these regions.

President Zelenskyy attributed the attack to Russia's continued aggression despite Ukraine's reported agreement to a US proposal for a full ceasefire 44 days prior. He ordered the Ukrainian Minister of Defense to immediately contact partners regarding strengthening air defense capabilities and cut short his visit to South Africa to return to Ukraine and inform President Ramaphosa (G20 chair) of the situation, emphasizing the need for intensified global diplomatic efforts, an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, and humanitarian assistance regarding POWs and abducted children.

Satellite imagery analysis confirms the complete destruction of the central part and damage to other sections of the Russian 51st GRAU arsenal near Kirzhach in Vladimir Oblast following an incident on April 22, likely impacting Russian ammunition stockpiles.

Air threats remain active in eastern and southeastern directions (tactical aviation) and from the northeast (ballistic). KAB launches are active on Donetsk and Sumy regions. Air raid alerts were declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with KAB launches specifically noted towards Zaporizhzhia city.

RU sources claimed destroying a Ukrainian mobile MLRS (RAK-SA-12) and a Ukrainian Kirpi MRAP on the Lyman axis using FPV drones (claims likely refer to previous period). RU sources also claimed hitting a chemical plant in Pavlohrad overnight, alleging it produced rocket fuel and cluster munition filler, and that significant production capacity was destroyed.

ASTRA reported that at least 61 Russian air bombs and 3 missiles have been accidentally dropped by Russian aircraft on Russian territory and occupied Ukrainian territories since the beginning of 2025, highlighting potential issues with Russian ordnance or aircraft systems.

Frontline Operations

High-intensity combat persists across all active axes, with a reported 168 combat clashes over the past 24 hours (GSh April 24).

  • Pokrovsk Axis: Remains the area of highest intensity, with Ukrainian defenders stopping 56 Russian assault actions near numerous settlements on April 24.
  • Toretsk Axis: Russian forces conducted 25 attacks on April 24. Russian sources claim continued advances southwest of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), entering Novospasskoye (Petrovka) and advancing in areas including Sukha Balka and Dyliivka.
  • Lyman Axis: Saw 20 Russian attacks on April 24.
  • Siversk Axis: Ukrainian forces stopped 12 Russian offensive actions on April 24. A Ukrainian NGU "Rubizh" brigade scout reportedly captured 6 Russian assault troops single-handedly near Siversk.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis: Ukrainian units stopped 15 Russian offensive actions on April 24. Russian sources note force accumulation in this area for a potential large offensive and commented on Ukrainian MRAPs holding well against mines, ATGMs, and bombs despite claiming destruction. Russian sources previously claimed the capture of Preobrazhenka (Donetsk Oblast) and advances near Bohatyr and Otradnoye on the Shakhtarsk direction (South Donetsk).
  • Orikhiv Axis: Occupiers attempted to advance three times on April 24. Russian sources report attacks hindered by significant Ukrainian long-range fire. High intensity Russian strikes (552 strikes including air, UAV, MLRS, artillery) were reported against 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on April 21 (previous report).
  • Kharkiv Direction: Saw 4 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory on April 24.
  • Kupyansk Axis: One Russian attack was repelled on April 24.
  • Kramatorsk Axis: Recorded one combat clash near Klishchiivka on April 24.
  • Huliaipole Axis: Recorded no ground clashes on April 24.
  • Prydniprovskyi Axis: The enemy had one unsuccessful attempt to advance on April 24. Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces attempted to cross the Dnipro near Antonivka bridge overnight but were destroyed by UAVs.

RU sources provided a summary of fighting from April 20-23, claiming RU advances in various areas including Kursk (south of Guyevo, towards Oleshnya), Sumy (Loknya), West of Kreminna (towards Torske), Siversk (near Bilohorivka, towards Hryhorivka), Toretsk/Horlivka (Dachne, south of Petrovka, Sukha Balka), Pokrovsk (central Tarasivka), and Kurakhove (north of Rozlyv).

Border Area Situation

Intense Russian activity continues in the Kursk/Sumy Border Zone. Ukrainian forces repelled 26 Russian assaults on April 24. Russian forces conducted 20 airstrikes (41 KABs) and 423 shellings (19 MLRS) over the past day (April 24). Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces are trying to transfer reserves to Hornal (Kursk), leading to fierce battles and claiming destruction of several Ukrainian assault groups on armor. RU sources also claimed destroying Ukrainian temporary deployment points in Novodmitrovka, Sumy Oblast, with UAVs.

In the Belgorod Border Zone, Russian sources claim repelling several Ukrainian infiltration attempts on April 24 and previously reported civilian casualties from alleged Ukrainian attacks (1 killed truck driver reported on April 22).

RU sources also reported alleged Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone attacks burning civilian homes in Klimovo, Kirillovka, and Rakovka in Bryansk Oblast, claiming the village of Khoromnoye was "burned to the ground."

The Russian MoD claimed destroying or intercepting 87 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight on April 24, including 45 over Crimea, 10 over Belgorod, 10 over Kursk, 8 over Voronezh, 4 over Bryansk, 4 over Lipetsk, 4 over Nizhny Novgorod, and 2 over the Moscow region.

Civilian Impact & Casualties

The large-scale Russian attack on April 24 resulted in severe civilian casualties and damage across multiple regions.

  • Kyiv: Confirmed 10 fatalities and over 70 injured (77 sought medical help, 8 confirmed dead per Kyiv Mayor, 9 total reported dead initially with one possibly being body parts for identification; 42 hospitalized, including 6 children and a pregnant woman). Rescue operations are ongoing, with up to 10 people possibly still under rubble. Damage occurred across 5 districts, impacting residential buildings (one multi-story destroyed, fires, partial destruction), non-residential buildings, garages, and cars. Damage to Lukyanivska metro station (5th time) and the Central Marriage Palace was noted. The Minister of Internal Affairs initially reported 2 children preliminarily killed in Kyiv, with the possibility of 2 children from the same family being among the dead still being investigated. One man was rescued from under rubble after over 6 hours.
  • Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces conducted 4 Smerch MLRS strikes on April 24 targeting the private sector, killing 2 civilians (a 12-year-old girl and a woman) and injuring 2 others.
  • Kharkiv: April 24 impacts caused damage to private houses, multi-story residential buildings, a clinic, school, production enterprises, and a hotel, with 2 injured reported (total 6 injured in the region per prosecutor, including a 14-year-old girl with acoustic barotrauma in Bezlyudivka). The Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor detailed three waves of attacks involving Iskanders, drones, and rockets, impacting enterprises, residential areas, and a school stadium. War crimes prosecutors in Kharkiv Oblast are actively documenting the consequences of attacks on civilian areas and examining weapon fragments.
  • Kyiv Oblast: The attack resulted in 2 women suffering acute stress reaction and damage to residential buildings and infrastructure.
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: Several combined attacks on April 24 caused damage and fires. A repeat strike during response efforts injured one rescuer and damaged 4 units of State Emergency Service (DSNS) equipment.
  • Sumy Oblast (Nedryhailivska community): A drone strike on April 24 caused 2 injuries and damaged administrative and non-residential buildings.
  • Poltava Oblast (Myrhorodskyi raion): Debris from a downed missile on April 24 damaged a household building and car, with no casualties.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad): A mass combined attack damaged 14 multi-story buildings and infrastructure; no casualties reported in Pavlohrad specifically. Regional administration reported 9 aerial targets downed overnight.
  • Zaporizhzhia city: A Shahed attack on April 24 damaged an administrative building and nearby windows, with two multi-story buildings also reported damaged (no casualties reported in the city specifically from this attack).

Previous reporting (April 22) noted 1 killed and 26 injured civilians (including 4 critical and 4 children) in Zaporizhzhia city from a KAB strike on April 22, and 1 killed civilian (FPV drone) and 3 injured (airstrike/shelling) in Kharkiv Oblast.

Ukraine confirmed the return of the body of journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna, who reportedly died in Russian captivity, identified via DNA examination in late February.

Russian sources claimed civilian casualties in Belgorod from Ukrainian attacks and claimed Ukrainian artillery/shelling caused damage and casualties in left-bank Kherson settlements and Horlivka (DNR, alleged UXO and drone detonations).

Psychological support efforts for the civilian population are ongoing, with a Psychological Forum held in Zaporizhzhia focusing on mental health challenges under martial law. Olena Zelenska reacted to the April 24 attack by linking current casualties to previous incidents and questioning peace initiatives being discussed with victims rather than perpetrators.

Capabilities, Logistics & Personnel

Ukrainian forces demonstrated effective Air Defense capabilities during the April 24 attack, intercepting a large number and variety of Russian missiles and drones, including ballistic missiles. The reported involvement of F-16 and Mirage pilots underscores the crucial role and high activity of multi-layered AD systems. President Zelenskyy's directive to the Minister of Defense to contact partners immediately regarding strengthening air defense highlights the critical need for continued supply of interceptors and systems.

DSNS units are actively responding to impacts, despite facing hazards like repeat strikes causing casualties and equipment damage (Zhytomyr). Ukrainian forces are conducting reconnaissance and strike operations using UAVs. A Ukrainian scout captured 6 Russian soldiers near Siversk. Fundraising is active for necessary equipment, including FPV drones (Sternenko noted need for 300+ daily), tactical pickup trucks, and field beds, highlighting continued reliance on public donations for specific logistical needs. Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters on Prisoners of War is operating a formal online system for managing POW information and communicating with families, indicating a structured approach to this significant issue.

Russian forces continue employing large-scale combined air attacks with diverse missile and drone types. Tactical aviation remains active, including KAB launches. Russian sources claimed use of FPV drones for targeting, and reconnaissance/strike assets. RU sources reported the first flight of a new multi-purpose drone "Stilet" developed by military-technical battalion "Bars-Sarmat," designed to be cheap and use available components. Russian sources are also fundraising for equipment like Mavic 3 drones, drone detectors, radios, and magazines for units operating on the Zaporizhzhia front. Russia's Minister of Industry and Trade previously reported a labor deficit of approximately 2 million people in Russian manufacturing. Russian special forces demonstrated the use of thermal optics for reconnaissance/targeting. Satellite imagery confirms the significant destruction of the central section of the Kirzhach arsenal, impacting their ammunition logistics. Russian sources claimed delivery of new tracked combat robots "Varan" equipped with EW, machine guns, cargo, and medical evacuation capabilities, including a "follow-me" function, to frontline units. RU MoD claimed destroying a UA UAV command post near Krasnoarmiysk with a 2S7M Malka and destroying a UA D-30 howitzer near Zarya using drone spotter and artillery.

Personnel issues include the death of Russian military correspondent Nikita Goldin from injuries sustained in a HIMARS strike on March 24. Azerbaijan extradited a Russian soldier (Tajik national, 27) wanted for unauthorized absence during mobilization/wartime. Russian sources reported Kyrgyzstan arresting a Russian House employee in Osh accused of recruiting mercenaries for the SVO. Previous reports included RU POW testimony indicating forced deployment of unfit/deceived personnel, extremely high casualties, poor supplies/planning, low morale, and desire to harm commanders.

Political & Diplomatic Landscape

Reports indicate potential discussions and pressure regarding peace negotiations. Donald Trump stated he will likely meet with Putin soon after his trip to Saudi Arabia (May 13-16). German politician Sarah Wagenkne demanded Russia be invited to the 80th-anniversary commemorations of the end of WWII on May 8, citing the Red Army's role. Reports suggest the EU is considering banning spot gas purchases from Russia as part of a phased rejection of Russian energy. President Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine will never recognize Crimea as Russian territory and referenced a 2018 US statement promising not to recognize the annexation.

Following the large-scale Russian attack, President Zelenskyy canceled part of his planned visit to South Africa and will return to Ukraine immediately after meeting President Ramaphosa to inform him of the situation and Ukraine's needs. He stated that Ukraine had agreed to a full ceasefire 44 days ago based on a US proposal, but Russia continues to kill, emphasizing the need for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire and humanitarian assistance regarding POWs and abducted children.

Russian Defense Minister Shoigu stated Russia is ready to discuss a new strategic stability treaty with the US, provided all factors affecting security are considered comprehensively. He also claimed the US has received the Russian position on ceasefire conditions with understanding, stating Russia is ready for peace talks only if its interests and "realities on the ground" are fully considered. Shoigu also claimed Russia has liberated over 99% of LPR territory and about two-thirds of Kherson, DNR, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and that the situation changes daily in Russia's favor. He claimed Ukraine violated the Easter ceasefire 4900 times in 30 hours and that Ukrainian activity is decreasing due to debt and dependence on Western aid.

The Financial Times reported that European nations fear a split in NATO and the EU due to Trump's reported demand for Kyiv to recognize Crimea as part of Russia and that they refuse to support these US efforts. Russian MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed Zelenskyy "intentionally" used US weapons during the Easter ceasefire, "setting up" the US.

Counter-Intelligence & Security

In Russia, the FSB claimed to prevent a terrorist attack on a petrochemical enterprise in Nizhny Novgorod region, neutralizing two individuals from Central Asia who allegedly acted on instructions from Ukraine. Another resident was reportedly detained in Nizhny Novgorod on suspicion of preparing a "terrorist attack" (arson of TV tower) linked to Ukraine via messenger. Two residents were detained in Kaliningrad over alleged financing of extremism (linked to FBK). A Russian House employee was reportedly arrested in Osh, Kyrgyzstan, accused by Kyrgyz authorities of recruiting mercenaries for the SVO. Azerbaijan extradited a Russian soldier wanted for unauthorized absence during mobilization/wartime. Russian authorities continue efforts against alleged 'fakes' and discrediting the armed forces.

In Ukraine, damage to railway infrastructure (Lukyanivska metro station in Kyiv - 5th time) and civil infrastructure (residential buildings, clinics, schools, enterprises, hotel, gas distribution point, Marriage Palace) from Russian attacks continues. DSNS units responding to impacts are also vulnerable to repeat strikes, as seen in Zhytomyr. Ukrainian war crimes prosecutors are actively documenting the consequences of Russian attacks on civilian areas, including examining weapon fragments in Kharkiv Oblast.

Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions

The large-scale Russian attack on April 24 resulted in significant civilian casualties across multiple regions, with confirmed fatalities in Kyiv (10) and Kostiantynivka (2), and numerous injuries across Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kyiv Oblast, Zhytomyr, and Sumy. Damage to residential buildings, civil infrastructure (clinics, schools, metro, enterprises, Marriage Palace), and emergency services equipment was widespread. A repeat strike on a DSNS unit in Zhytomyr injured a rescuer and damaged vehicles, highlighting the risks faced by emergency responders. Rescue operations for trapped persons are ongoing in Kyiv.

Russian sources claimed civilian casualties in Belgorod and from alleged Ukrainian shelling in left-bank Kherson settlements and Horlivka (DNR).

Efforts to provide psychological assistance to the population affected by the conflict are being conducted, exemplified by the forum held in Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian war crimes prosecutors are documenting alleged war crimes by investigating damage to civilian infrastructure and collecting evidence. Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters on POWs is managing information and communication for families, indicating the scale of the POW issue and efforts to address humanitarian concerns related to captured personnel. The return of the body of journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna, reportedly killed in Russian captivity, was confirmed, highlighting the severe humanitarian consequences extending to detained civilians. Olena Zelenska reacted to the April 24 attack by drawing attention to the human cost and questioning peace initiatives that engage with victims but not the perpetrators.

Previous (2025-04-24 07:46:27Z)

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