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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-24 07:46:27Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-24 07:16:57Z)

Military Intelligence Daily Assessment

Strategic and Air Warfare

Russia conducted a large-scale, combined air attack across Ukraine on April 24 (commencing evening April 23), employing approximately 70 missiles and 145 drones, totaling 215 detected targets. The attack involved ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23 from Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk Oblasts), cruise missiles (Kh-101 from Tu-95ms from Saratov Oblast, Iskander-K from Donetsk Oblast, Kalibr from Black Sea), guided aviation missiles (Kh-59/X-69 from tactical aviation from Belgorod Oblast), and a significant number of Shahed/imitator drones launched from multiple locations including Bryansk, Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia), and Chauda (Crimea). The primary direction of the strike was Kyiv.

Ukrainian air defense forces successfully intercepted a total of 112 aerial targets: 7 ballistic missiles (7/11 launched Iskander-M/KN-23), 42 cruise missiles (31/37 Kh-101, 6/12 Kalibr, 4/4 Iskander-K), and 64 Shahed drones (64/145 launched Shaheds/imitators). An additional 68 drone imitators were locationally lost without consequence. Ukrainian Air Force pilots, including F-16 and Mirage platforms, were actively involved in the defense, accounting for dozens of shootdowns. The attack affected Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, Kharkiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russian sources claimed the attack targeted military facilities and transport infrastructure, including alleged hits on Ukrainian railway echelons carrying personnel and equipment. Zelenskyy attributed the attack to Russia's continued aggression despite Ukraine's reported agreement to a US proposal for a full ceasefire 44 days prior and ordered the Ukrainian Minister of Defense to immediately contact partners regarding strengthening air defense capabilities.

Satellite imagery analysis of the Russian 51st GRAU arsenal near Kirzhach in Vladimir Oblast confirms the complete destruction of the central part and damage to other sections following the incident on April 22. Surviving ammunition is likely unusable, significantly impacting Russian ammunition stockpiles and logistics.

Air threats remain active in eastern and southeastern directions (tactical aviation) and from the northeast (ballistic). KAB launches are active on Donetsk and Sumy regions. Air raid alerts were declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian sources claimed a Russian fighter aircraft encountered two Ukrainian Air Force planes over Sumy Oblast, allegedly hitting one and causing the other to retreat.

Frontline Operations

High-intensity combat persists across all active axes, with a reported 168 combat clashes over the past 24 hours (GSh April 24).

  • Pokrovsk Axis: Remains the area of highest intensity, with Ukrainian defenders stopping 56 Russian assault actions on April 24 near numerous settlements including Kalynove, Zelene Pole, Novotoretske, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Vidrodzhennya, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Nadiyivka, Kotlyarivka, and Andriivka.
  • Toretsk Axis: Russian forces conducted 25 attacks on April 24 near Dachne, Krymske, Toretsk, and Leonidivka. Russian sources claim continued advances southwest of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), entering Novospasskoye (Petrovka) from the cemetery and Leonidovka sides, and advancing in areas including Sukha Balka and Dyliivka. Ukrainian forces successfully employed FPV drones to destroy Russian reconnaissance UAVs on this axis ("Azov" 12th Brigade).
  • Lyman Axis: Saw 20 Russian attacks on April 24, with attempts to break through near Nove, Hrekivka, Nadiya, and Ridkodub. Russian sources claimed destroying a Ukrainian mobile MLRS (RAK-SA-12) and a Ukrainian Kirpi MRAP on this axis using FPV drones (claims likely refer to previous period).
  • Siversk Axis: Ukrainian forces stopped 12 Russian offensive actions on April 24 near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske. A Ukrainian NGU "Rubizh" brigade scout reportedly captured 6 Russian assault troops single-handedly near Siversk.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis: Ukrainian units stopped 15 Russian offensive actions on April 24 near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Skudne, Rivnopil, and Novodarivka. Russian sources note force accumulation in this area for a potential large offensive and commented on Ukrainian MRAPs holding well against mines, ATGMs, and bombs despite claiming destruction.
  • Orikhiv Axis: Occupiers attempted to advance three times on April 24 in the areas of Stepove, Shcherbaky, and Lobkove. Russian sources report attacks hindered by significant Ukrainian long-range fire and claimed their reconnaissance units actively destroyed Ukrainian equipment on the Zaporizhzhia direction over the previous week.
  • Kharkiv Direction: Saw 4 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory on April 24. The situation is assessed as complex but controlled. (Ukrainian forces previously claimed significant enemy losses in this area on April 23).
  • Kupyansk Axis: One Russian attack was repelled on April 24 near Zahryzove.
  • Kramatorsk Axis: Recorded one combat clash near Klishchiivka on April 24.
  • Huliaipole Axis: Recorded no ground clashes on April 24.
  • Prydniprovskyi Axis: The enemy had one unsuccessful attempt to advance on April 24. Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces attempted to cross the Dnipro near Antonivka bridge overnight but were destroyed by UAVs. They also claimed their Rosgvardia drones destroyed a Ukrainian transponder and artillery/high-precision strike destroyed a Ukrainian radar station crew after detection by IR camera.

Border Area Situation

Intense Russian activity continues in the Kursk/Sumy Border Zone. Ukrainian forces repelled 26 Russian assaults on April 24. Russian forces conducted 20 airstrikes (41 KABs) and 423 shellings (19 MLRS) over the past day (April 24). Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces are trying to transfer reserves to Hornal (Kursk), leading to fierce battles and claiming destruction of several Ukrainian assault groups on armor. (Russian sources previously claimed expanding control and advancing in specific areas near the border on April 23).

In the Belgorod Border Zone, Russian sources claim repelling several Ukrainian infiltration attempts on April 24.

Civilian Impact & Casualties

The large-scale Russian attack on April 24 resulted in severe civilian casualties and damage across multiple regions. In Kyiv: confirmed 10 fatalities and over 70 injured (42 hospitalized, including 6 children and a pregnant woman). Rescue operations are ongoing in Sviatoshynskyi district following the destruction of a multi-story residential building and across 5 districts in total. Significant damage occurred across multiple districts, impacting residential buildings (fires, partial destruction, potential trapped persons), non-residential buildings, garages, and cars. Damage to Lukyanivska metro station (5th time), windows, food establishments, and cars was noted. Kyiv Mayor Klitschko reported 77 people sought medical help in Kyiv, with 8 confirmed deaths and 31 hospitalized. The Minister of Internal Affairs initially reported 2 children preliminarily killed in Kyiv.

In Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces conducted 4 Smerch MLRS strikes on April 24 targeting the private sector, killing 2 civilians (a 12-year-old girl and a woman) and injuring 2 others.

In Kharkiv: April 24 impacts caused damage to private houses, multi-story residential buildings, a clinic, school, production enterprises, and a hotel, with 2 injured reported. The Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor detailed three waves of attacks on April 24 (Iskanders, drones, rockets) impacting enterprises, residential areas, and a school stadium, reporting a total of 6 injured in the region, including a 14-year-old girl with acoustic barotrauma.

In Kyiv Oblast: the attack resulted in 2 women suffering acute stress reaction and damage to 3 five-story residential buildings, 4 shops, 8 cars, a bus stop, a warehouse, and forest/open areas.

In Zhytomyr Oblast: several combined attacks on April 24 damaged private garages, caused a large fire, and the blast wave broke windows. Crucially, a repeat strike during response efforts injured one rescuer and damaged 4 units of State Emergency Service (DSNS) equipment, highlighting the risks faced by emergency responders.

In Sumy Oblast (Nedryhailivska community): a drone strike on April 24 caused 2 injuries and damaged administrative and non-residential buildings.

In Poltava Oblast (Myrhorodskyi raion): debris from a downed missile on April 24 damaged a household building and car, with no casualties.

In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad): a mass combined attack damaged 14 multi-story buildings (windows, balconies) and infrastructure; no casualties reported in Pavlohrad specifically (separate from previous day's FPV bus attack in Marhanets which caused 9 KIA, 54 WIA). The regional administration reported 9 aerial targets (4 missiles, 5 UAVs) downed in the region overnight.

In Zaporizhzhia city: a Shahed attack on April 24 damaged an administrative building and nearby windows, with two multi-story buildings also reported damaged (no casualties reported in the city specifically from this attack).

Russian sources claimed civilian casualties in Belgorod from Ukrainian attacks (1 killed, 9 wounded claimed on April 22) and claimed Ukrainian artillery/shelling caused damage and casualties in left-bank Kherson settlements.

Psychological support efforts for the civilian population are ongoing, with a Psychological Forum held in Zaporizhzhia focusing on mental health challenges under martial law.

Capabilities, Logistics & Personnel

Ukrainian forces demonstrated effective Air Defense capabilities by intercepting a large number and variety of Russian missiles and drones (48 missiles, 64 Shaheds out of 70 missiles and 145 drones launched on April 24), indicating the crucial role and high activity of multi-layered AD systems. F-16 and Mirage pilots were involved in interceptions. DSNS units are actively responding to impacts, despite facing hazards like repeat strikes causing casualties and equipment damage (Zhytomyr). Ukrainian forces are conducting reconnaissance and strike operations using UAVs (Azov destroying RU recon UAVs). A Ukrainian scout captured 6 Russian soldiers near Siversk. Fundraising is active for necessary equipment, including tactical pickup trucks and field beds, highlighting continued reliance on public donations for specific logistical needs. Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters on Prisoners of War is operating a formal online system for managing POW information and communicating with families, indicating a structured approach to this significant issue.

Russian forces continue employing large-scale combined air attacks with diverse missile and drone types (70 missiles, 145 drones on April 24). Tactical aviation remains active in eastern/se southeastern directions, including KAB launches. Russian sources claimed use of FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian MLRS and MRAP on the Lyman axis (likely previous period), and reconnaissance/strike assets (including IR detection for targeting radar crew) on the Kherson axis. Russian sources are also fundraising for equipment like Mavic 3 drones, drone detectors, radios, and magazines for the 7th Guards Airborne Division operating on the Zaporizhzhia front. Russia's Minister of Industry and Trade reported a labor deficit of approximately 2 million people in Russian manufacturing. Russian special forces demonstrated the use of thermal optics for reconnaissance/targeting. Satellite imagery confirms the significant destruction of the central section of the Kirzhach arsenal, impacting their ammunition logistics. Russian sources claimed delivery of new tracked combat robots "Varan" equipped with EW, machine guns, cargo, and medical evacuation capabilities, including a "follow-me" function, to frontline units.

Estimated cumulative Russian losses, according to the Ukrainian General Staff (up to April 24, 2025, noted as a potential future date or typo for 2024), are substantial: 514,380 personnel (+1060 recently), 8532 tanks (+2), 16486 BBM (+15), 13488 artillery systems (+49), 1091 MLRS (+3), 827 AD systems (+1), 10856 UAVs (+134), 2273 cruise missiles (+48), among others. These figures, while from a Ukrainian source, indicate ongoing heavy attrition.

Personnel issues include the death of Russian military correspondent Nikita Goldin from injuries sustained in a HIMARS strike on March 24. Azerbaijan extradited a Russian soldier (Tajik national, 27) wanted for unauthorized absence during mobilization/wartime. Russian sources reported Kyrgyzstan arresting a Russian House employee in Osh accused of recruiting mercenaries for the SVO.

Political & Diplomatic Landscape

Reports indicate potential discussions and pressure regarding peace negotiations. Donald Trump stated he will likely meet with Putin soon after his trip to Saudi Arabia (May 13-16). German politician Sarah Wagenkne demanded Russia be invited to the 80th-anniversary commemorations of the end of WWII on May 8, citing the Red Army's role. Reports suggest the EU is considering banning spot gas purchases from Russia as part of a phased rejection of Russian energy. President Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine will never recognize Crimea as Russian territory, calling it unconstitutional, and referenced a 2018 US statement promising not to recognize the annexation, mentioning Trump's question about why Ukraine didn't fight for Crimea in 2014. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu stated Russia is ready to discuss a new strategic stability treaty with the US, provided all factors affecting security are considered comprehensively. Russian sources reported on a Politico article alleging potential US consideration of lifting Nord Stream 2 and Russian asset sanctions, noting denials by US officials and Putin's confirmation of US-Russia discussions on gas supplies to Europe. The Financial Times reported that European nations fear a split in NATO and the EU due to Trump's reported demand for Kyiv to recognize Crimea as part of Russia, and that they refuse to support these US efforts. Following the large-scale Russian attack, President Zelenskyy canceled part of his planned visit to South Africa and will return to Ukraine immediately after meeting President Ramaphosa. Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine had agreed to a full ceasefire 44 days ago based on a US proposal, but Russia continues to kill. He will inform President Ramaphosa (G20 chair) about the situation and Ukraine's need for intensified global diplomatic efforts, an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, and humanitarian assistance regarding POWs and abducted children.

Counter-Intelligence & Security

In Russia, the FSB claimed to prevent a terrorist attack on a petrochemical enterprise in Nizhny Novgorod region, neutralizing two individuals from Central Asia who allegedly acted on instructions from Ukraine. Another resident was reportedly detained in Nizhny Novgorod on suspicion of preparing a "terrorist attack". Two residents were detained in Kaliningrad over alleged financing of extremism (linked to FBK). A Russian House employee was reportedly arrested in Osh, Kyrgyzstan, accused by Kyrgyz authorities of recruiting mercenaries for the SVO. Azerbaijan extradited a Russian soldier wanted for unauthorized absence during mobilization/wartime. Russian authorities continue efforts against alleged 'fakes' and discrediting the armed forces.

In Ukraine, damage to railway infrastructure (Lukyanivska metro station in Kyiv - 5th time) and civil infrastructure (residential buildings, garages, shops, clinic, school, enterprises, hotel, gas distribution point) from Russian attacks continues. DSNS units responding to impacts are also vulnerable to repeat strikes, as seen in Zhytomyr. Ukrainian war crimes prosecutors are actively documenting the consequences of Russian attacks on civilian areas, including examining weapon fragments in Kharkiv Oblast.

Humanitarian & Ethical Dimensions

The large-scale Russian attack on April 24 resulted in significant civilian casualties across multiple regions, including 10 killed and over 70 injured in Kyiv (77 injured, 8 confirmed dead per Kyiv Mayor, 2 children preliminarily killed per Interior Minister), 2 killed and 2 injured in Kostiantynivka (Donetsk), 2 injured in Kharkiv (total 6 injured in the region including a 14yo girl), 2 injured in Sumy. Damage to residential buildings, civil infrastructure (clinics, schools, metro, enterprises), and emergency services equipment was widespread. A repeat strike on a DSNS unit in Zhytomyr injured a rescuer and damaged vehicles, highlighting the risks faced by emergency responders. Russian sources claimed civilian casualties in Belgorod and from alleged Ukrainian shelling in left-bank Kherson settlements. Efforts to provide psychological assistance to the population affected by the conflict are being conducted, exemplified by the forum held in Zaporizhzhia. Rescue operations for trapped persons are ongoing (Kyiv). Ukrainian war crimes prosecutors are documenting alleged war crimes by investigating damage to civilian infrastructure and collecting evidence, such as weapon fragments. Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters on POWs is managing information and communication for families, indicating the scale of the POW issue and efforts to address humanitarian concerns related to captured personnel.

Potential Indicators

  • Sustained High-Intensity Air Campaign: Russia's continued large-scale, multi-type air attacks indicate a sustained capacity and intent to degrade Ukraine's infrastructure and morale, likely aiming to pressure Ukraine into unfavorable negotiations.
  • Ukrainian Air Defense Resilience: The high interception rates demonstrate the crucial effectiveness of Ukrainian layered air defenses, including the reported involvement of F-16 and Mirage pilots. Maintaining this capability is paramount but faces significant logistical challenges related to interceptor supply.
  • Impact on Russian Logistics: The confirmed destruction of the central Kirzhach arsenal section severely impacts Russian ammunition supply lines, potentially limiting the scale and duration of ground offensives in certain sectors.
  • Evolving Frontline Tactics: Increased Russian assault activity on specific axes (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk), force accumulation, and claims of tactical gains alongside Ukrainian reports of successful repulsions and the continued prominence of UAVs and electronic warfare reflect ongoing efforts by both sides to adapt tactics and find weak points.
  • External Pressure on Peace Terms: Public statements from key international actors, particularly Donald Trump and differing stances within European nations regarding territorial concessions (Crimea), indicate potential external influence on future negotiation dynamics, likely favoring Russian demands and potentially creating friction within the Western alliance supporting Ukraine. Zelenskyy's decision to cut short his South Africa trip underscores the urgency of the situation and the need for intensified international diplomatic and military support.
  • Resource Constraints and Adaptation: Russian labor deficits in manufacturing, reliance on volunteer fundraising for specific equipment needs (drones, EW), and reports of fielding new unmanned systems ("Varan") suggest both potential strains on official supply chains and ongoing efforts to adapt and innovate to sustain military capabilities.
  • Focus on Accountability: Ukraine's active documentation of alleged war crimes and investigation of strike impacts highlight efforts to ensure accountability for actions impacting civilians, which may influence future targeting decisions and has strategic implications for the international perception and legal consequences of the conflict.
Previous (2025-04-24 07:16:57Z)

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