As of Tue Apr 22 08:53:43 2025 (Incorporating intelligence up to approx. 08:52 UTC)
I. Strategic & Air Warfare Overview
Ongoing Russian Drone Attack (Update):
Current Vectors (UA AF / Monitoring Sources, ~08:06 - 08:13 UTC):
UAVs previously transiting Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast continue movement past Pavlohrad towards Kharkiv Oblast.
One UAV heading towards Smila (Cherkasy Oblast) from Poltava Oblast.
One UAV active in northern Kyiv Oblast (transited from Chernihiv).
One UAV active in northern Chernihiv Oblast, maintaining western course.
Three UAVs previously near Pershotravensk (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) continue north.
Previous reports indicated groups transiting Chernihiv -> Kyiv Oblast, and one UAV transiting southern Kyiv -> Vinnytsia/Zhytomyr.
Ukrainian Air Defence: Confirmed active in Kyiv Oblast (previous reports). Recent claim of 9 Russian UAVs downed by "ReDrone" program forces (2x Kub, 2x Molniya FPV, 1x Zala, 1x Supercam, 1x Merlin-VR) remains standing (STERNENKO, ~08:00 UTC).
New/Ongoing Russian Air Threats:
NEW (ALERT - RECON): Russian reconnaissance UAV activity detected over Sumy Oblast (UA AF, ~08:45 UTC).
NEW (STRIKE/IMPACT): Russian tactical aviation conducted strikes using Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Zaporizhzhia City (UA AF, OMA, STERNENKO, ~07:51 UTC reported launch, impacts confirmed ~08:41-08:51 UTC).
Impact: A fire has broken out in one district of Zaporizhzhia City. Medical teams dispatched. Preliminary reports indicate casualties (Zaporizhzhia OMA, Operatyvnyi ZSU, RBC-Ukraina, ~08:41 - 08:49 UTC).
Tactical aviation continues launching KABs towards Sumy Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast (UA AF, ongoing). KABs also previously launched towards Donetsk Oblast (~07:51 UTC).
RU CLAIM (VIDEO): Russian Vostok Group aviation strikes with 4x FAB-500 UMPK glide bombs against alleged Ukrainian positions near Zelene Pole (South Donetsk direction) remain claimed (RU Source - Voin DV, ~07:30 UTC).
NEW (RU CLAIM): Russian forces (90th Guards Tank Division, 'Otvazhnye', Group 'Center') claim liberation of Preobrazhenka. Reportedly secured main supply road, destroyed UA equipment (incl. MaxxPro). Tactical details: small group infiltration under difficult weather/terrain conditions, advance after recon & artillery preparation (RU Source - RVvoenkor, ~08:18 UTC). (Note: DeepState previously reported RU advance near Preobrazhenka).
RU Drone Activity (Update): Russian "Rubikon" and "Vega" Spetsnaz FPV drone units remain active, targeting UA equipment, personnel, and potentially new tactical markings near Pokrovsk (RU Sources - RVvoenkor, MoD RU, Kotsnews, ~07:22 - 08:21 UTC). RU claims use of "Molniya" fixed-wing FPV drone (RU Source - Dva Mayora, ~08:25 UTC).
UA Defensive Action: Ukrainian 31st Mechanized Brigade report repelling 8 RU assaults, destroying 16 motorcycles and infantry (Apr 21) stands (UA 31 OMBr via Butusov Plus, ~07:22 UTC).
UA FPV Activity: UA FPV strike targeting RU forces near Dovha Balka - Mykolaipole road reported (UA Source - Shef Hayabusa, ~07:12 UTC).
Zaporizhzhia Axis:
UA Defensive Success (Reinforced): Ukrainian GUR "Artan" special unit reports repelling a large-scale Russian mechanized assault (claimed >40 RU armored units, ~300 infantry in 6 columns). Video evidence shared (UA Sources - Butusov Plus, Operatyvnyi ZSU, RBC-Ukraina, ~08:06 - 08:15 UTC).
RU Strikes/Activity: Russian forces claim strikes on Bilenke (alleged UA arty/UAV concentration) and testing new drone models on this front (RU Sources - Dnevnik Desantnika, Dva Mayora, ~08:06 UTC).
Kramatorsk Axis:
RU Claims (Video/Geolocation): RU FPV drone destruction of UA tank near Fedorivka Druha (~8km LoC, Apr 21); RU hit on UA SPG near Yurkivka (~10km LoC, Apr 19); RU drone strike on UA mortar near Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka remain claimed (RU Sources, ~07:01 - 08:10 UTC).
Various UA brigade combat footage released (43rd Arty, 43rd Mech, Operatyvnyi ZSU).
NEW (UA INTERVIEW): UA 43rd Mech Bde soldiers describe 54-day defense engagement, mentioning RU radio intercepts complaining about UA tenacity (DeepState citing Army TV, ~08:35 UTC).
III. Cross-Border Engagements (Kursk/Sumy/Chernihiv/Bryansk)
Kursk Oblast Border Zone:
NEW (RU CLAIM): Russian forces claim further advance near the Svyato-Nikolaevsky Belogorsky Monastery in Hornal and capture of several UA positions south of this location. Claim repelling UA DRGs south of Guyevo. (RU Source - Dnevnik Desantnika, ~08:35 UTC).
NEW (RU VIDEO): RU 'Aida' Spetsnaz (204th Reg) footage shows body evacuation near Demidovka, mentioning location of previous clash with UA SOF (RU Source - Colonelcassad, ~08:41 UTC).
RU Claims (Previous/Reinforced): Alleged foreign mercenary presence/narratives (Hornal); Colombian mercenary KIA claim; claim of ~300 UA UAV operator teams deployed; RU medical units present (RU Sources).
RU Legal/IO: RU Investigative Committee claims identification of UA soldier allegedly involved in shelling Kursk village (TASS, ~08:47 UTC).
Sumy Oblast Border Zone:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Group of >100 UK-trained Ukrainian personnel transferred from Poltava to Sumy Oblast (RU Source - Dnevnik Desantnika, ~08:35 UTC; previously TASS).
RU CLAIM (VIDEO): RU FPV drone strike on UA robotic ground platform near border remains claimed (RU Source - Voenkor Kotenok, ~07:48 UTC).
Bryansk Oblast Border Zone:
NEW (RU CASUALTY - UA CLAIM): Report of Russian conscript Aman Malyshev (22, Sakha Republic, 305th Artillery Brigade) killed near Bryansk border (reportedly deployed without contract, complained of drone attacks). (UA Source - Butusov Plus, ~08:49 UTC).
IV. Capabilities, Logistics & Personnel
Ukrainian Capabilities & Recruitment:
NEW: 46th Airmobile Brigade actively recruiting for Information Collection and Processing Specialists (IT, data analysis, GIS skills sought) (UA 46 OAeMBr, ~08:27 UTC).
AEW&C Assessment (RU): RU sources note potential deployment of Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C (ASC 890), assessing capabilities and possible basing (W. Ukraine/Poland) (RU Source - Arkhangel Spetsnaza, ~08:02 UTC).
Intelligence Partnership (RU CLAIM): RU sources claim Japan finalizing agreement to provide satellite intelligence (radar imagery) to UA GUR (RU Source - WarGonzo, ~08:05 UTC). (Verification required).
Drone Technology: Testing new drones (Zaporizhzhia). Use of FPVs (incl. fiber-optic, "Molniya" fixed-wing) confirmed/claimed (Pokrovsk). Active units include "Rubikon," "Vega". Needs persist (fundraising).
Personnel/Recruitment Issues:
NEW: Report details case of alleged irregular contract signing involving intoxicated individual with health issues in Kirov (RU Source - Mobilization News, ~08:15 UTC).
NEW: Report of conscript killed on Bryansk border allegedly without contract, after complaints of drone threat (UA Source - Butusov Plus, ~08:49 UTC).
Troop Health/Readiness: RU milblogger analysis highlights negative impact of energy drink consumption on soldier blood clotting, recommending screening and limitation in rations (RU Source - NgP raZVedka, ~08:10 UTC).
Casualties:
NEW (UA CONFIRMED): Death confirmed of UA soldier Mykhailo Pukman (Rakhiv district), previously missing since July 1, 2024 (UA Sources via Alex Parker Returns, ~08:48 UTC).
NEW (UA PRELIMINARY): Potential casualties reported following RU KAB attack on Zaporizhzhia City (Zaporizhzhia OMA).
NEW (RU CLAIMED/REPORTED): Death of RU conscript Aman Malyshev near Bryansk border (UA Source - Butusov Plus).
V. Political & Information Operations Context
Potential Peace Negotiations / Plans:
NEW: Reports emerge (NY Post via RU sources like Rybar, TASS) regarding details of a potential new Trump peace plan. Discussed elements include: European forces deployment in UA, a tripartite commission (RU/UA/3rd party), possible RU control of Crimea, US funding (no troops), and alleged UA willingness to accept de-facto (not de-jure) loss of up to 20% territory.
RU Analysis (Rybar): Views Trump plan skepticism, seeing it as US refocusing on China/economic gains, potentially using UA as leverage/revenue source. Doubts feasibility if core RU demands aren't met.
Previous reports mentioned potential London talks next week. RU sources frame deviation from prior tracks as potential failure (RVvoenkor).
Russian Narratives:
Continued focus on alleged UA atrocities (Kostyantynivka civilian accounts).
