Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 19:24:52 2025
I. Strategic Overview & Information Operations
Ceasefire Status & Violations:
The unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire ended at 00:00 Moscow Time on April 21, with no extension ordered (Peskov confirmation). US State Department expressed a desire for extension, rejected by Kremlin.
The ceasefire period (18:00 Apr 19 - 00:00 Apr 21 Moscow Time) was operationally ineffective. Russian forces violated their own declaration extensively.
Ukrainian Assessment (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi Report, 20:00 Kyiv Time, Apr 20):
Over 2,000 Russian violations reported since the start of Apr 20.
67 Russian ground assaults launched against Ukrainian positions, highest concentration on Pokrovsk axis.
1,355 Russian shelling incidents, including 713 involving heavy weapons.
673 Russian FPV drone uses recorded.
Russian Exploitation During Lull: RU forces demonstrably used the period for rotation, resupply, fortification, engineering works (incl. Chornyi Zherebets River crossing attempt), mining, and repositioning. RU conducted engineering work under ceasefire cover while simultaneously launching assaults against other positions of the same UA brigade (Operatyvnyi ZSU/66th Bde).
Post-Ceasefire Activity: Russian sources report immediate resumption/intensification of Ukrainian fire after 00:00 Apr 21, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front (cluster munitions, heavy artillery, FPV drones near Huliaipole, Kam'yans'ke, Verbove claimed by RU) and Lyman axis (UA drone/arty near Terny/Kolodezi claimed by RU). NEW (RU Claim): Russian artillery and tank fire reported active against UA positions near Mali Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia axis) after ceasefire end. NEW (RU Claim): Increased UA "Baba Yaga" type heavy drone activity observed near the Antoniovskyi Bridge (Kherson axis) post-ceasefire start (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Critical Incident (During Ceasefire): Toretsk Ambush: Ukrainian soldiers were ambushed on the Toretsk axis, resulting in confirmed Ukrainian KIA. Retribution vowed by Ukrainian leadership.
Russian Claims & Information Operations (IO):
Russia maintained claims of adherence while accusing Ukraine of widespread violations (444 artillery/mortar attacks, 900+ UAV strikes claimed by midday Apr 20).
NEW/Reinforced RU Claims of UA Violations: Accused Ukraine of using US HIMARS during ceasefire (MFA Spokesperson Zakharova via TASS, RVvoenkor). Claimed UA mortar fire, drone drops, alleged "napalm" use near Krasne Pershe (Kupyansk axis) during ceasefire (Dnevnik Desantnika). Claimed continued UA attacks on RU energy infrastructure despite alleged moratorium agreement (Zakharova). Claimed repelling UA ground attacks near Sukha Balka, Bohatyr during ceasefire (RU MoD).
Heavily Promoted RU IO / Alleged LOAC Violation: Russian sources (Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika, Dva Mayora with video/timestamps) amplified claims and video allegedly showing Ukrainian forces attacking a Russian evacuation group under two white flags, resulting in 1 RU WIA. Framed as proof of UA "terrorism" and violation of truce norms. RU claims obstruction of their KIA recovery on Kramatorsk axis, while claiming they allowed UA recovery efforts.
RU Assessment of UA Ceasefire Activity: Claimed Ukraine used lull for significant regrouping and ammunition resupply across multiple sectors, occupying grey zones, and maintaining drone activity (Dnevnik Desantnika). Acknowledged own forces also used lull for fortification/resupply.
RU Framing of Zelenskyy Proposal: Dismissed as insincere, driven by UA AD shortages, and a tactic to prepare for summer operations while hiding assets in civilian infrastructure (Kotenok, Dva Mayora). Propaganda continues regarding alleged forced mobilization in Ukraine (Colonelcassad).
Geopolitical Developments:
Ukrainian Proposal (Zelenskyy, Apr 20): Ukraine proposes a mutual cessation of long-range drone and missile strikes specifically on civilian infrastructure for at least 30 days, with potential extension. Presented as test of Russian intent, leveraging the absence of air alerts on Apr 20. Russia has not responded positively. RU MFA/milbloggers dismiss it.
European Aid Shift: Increasing focus reported on investing in Ukraine's domestic defense industry (€1B for Bohdana SPGs allocated) rather than solely donating stock (Reuters/WP).
Sanctions Evasion: Report alleges German company supplied significant chromium to RU defense industry (Uralvagonzavod) via potential circumvention (Tsaplienko/Handelsblatt).
China: Report claims successful Chinese test of a novel non-nuclear hydrogen bomb (conventional explosive using magnesium hydride) (SCMP via Tsaplienko). Implications require monitoring.
Hungary: Initiates national consultation against Ukraine's EU accession.
US Policy: Reports of potential State Dept restructuring. Quote attributed to Trump advisor Kellogg indicates war fatigue within Trump team.
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Air Alerts: Notably, no air alerts reported in Ukraine on Apr 20 (Zelenskyy 20:00), cited as basis for de-escalation proposal.
Confirmed Strikes/Violations (During Ceasefire): Shelling of Uspenivka (Pokrovsk). Drone attack on vehicle near Kupyansk. Ambush on Toretsk axis. Attack on humanitarian vehicle ("Proliska") near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area). Shelling hampered civilian body recovery in Kostyantynivka.
RU Claimed Strike: Alleged RU drone strike on UA evacuation transport near Bilohorivka (Lyman/Siversk axis) during ceasefire (STERNENKO).
RU Claimed Strikes (Pre-Ceasefire): Geran drones destroyed UA transport depot (Sumy Oblast). Scouts destroyed 2 US HMMWVs + 1 pickup (Donetsk direction).
Drone Adaptation/Capability: Russia adapting Shahed drones for reconnaissance/strike coordination (STERNENKO). Use of Mavics for water resupply (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video). Claimed use of fixed-wing FPV "Molniya" (pre-ceasefire footage) (Colonelcassad). CONFIRMED: Russian use of FPV drones on fiber optic cables in Donetsk Oblast (Butusov Plus video). RU CLAIM: Use of "Groza Leska" fiber optic FPV system near Kupyansk (Operatsiya Z).
RU AD Claims (During Ceasefire): Intercepted HIMARS/Vilkha over Kursk. Intercepted 48 UA drones overnight Apr 19-20 over Russia (Rybar/Dva Mayora).
RU Artillery/Tank Activity (Post-Ceasefire): NEW RU artillery and tank fire reported targeting UA positions near Mali Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia axis) (Dnevnik Desantnika).
NGU "Omega" ("Hostri Kartuzy"): Documented RU KIA on Kurakhove direction (Pokrovsk/Novopavlivsk axis) (Butusov Plus video).
VIDEO: 110th Mech Bde destroyed 9 RU armored units with anti-drone cages on Pokrovsk axis. FPV drone destroyed RU "Bukhanka" van during Easter (Shef Hayabusa).
RU Claims of UA Activity (During Ceasefire): Use of US HIMARS alleged (Zakharova). Mortar fire, drone drops, alleged "napalm" use near Krasne Pershe (Kupyansk axis) (Dnevnik Desantnika).
RU Claims of UA Activity (Post-Ceasefire): Increased use of "Baba Yaga" type heavy drones near Antoniovskyi Bridge (Kherson axis) (Dnevnik Desantnika). Intense arty/FPV use claimed on Zaporizhzhia front post-00:00 Apr 21. Increased UA drone presence noted west of Bakhmut (Kramatorsk axis) (Dva Mayora/Dnevnik Desantnika video).
Drone Evasion: Video shows UA driver successfully evading RU FPV drone (fiber optic) in Donetsk Oblast (Butusov Plus).
Recon Drone Found: Downed RU fixed-wing recon UAV found in Vyshneve, near Kyiv (Tsaplienko).
Needs: Fundraising ongoing for EW systems (24th Aidar) and Mavic 3 drones (114th TDF) (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Logistics:
Ukraine: Received drones/EW boosters (Zaporizhzhia). Kryvyi Rih provided aid. CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Record low gas storage (0.66 bcm usable) necessitates large winter imports (Reuters/RVvoenkor). Potential EU aid shift to domestic production. Movement Claims (RU Source): Large UA troop/equipment movements reported towards front from Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy (Dnevnik Desantnika). UA allegedly used ceasefire for major regrouping/resupply (Dnevnik Desantnika). REINFORCED REINFORCEMENT CLAIM (RU SOURCE): Approx. 1500 personnel from elite UA units (Kraken, Ronin, Ptakhi Madiara) reported moved to Zaporizhzhia direction during ceasefire (Dnevnik Desantnika). International Support Flow: Analysis of US heavy transport flights to Rzeszow (Poland) Feb-Apr 2025 shows average monthly flights (approx. 25) lower than 2023-24 peaks (approx. 35 avg), but significant volume persists (20 flights in first 19 days of April) (Colonelcassad citing kargin_version/neinsider).
Russia: Shipping restored on Don River. Adaptation: Anti-drone cages fitted to North Korean M-1991 MLRS (Sternenko). Remote mining systems claimed used near Bohatyr. Used lull for fortification/resupply. Vulnerability: Potential reliance on German chromium imports. Morale/Logistics Issues: Captured soldier testimony (34th MRB) details command issues. Public petition against sending convicted murderer to fight. Kerch Bridge Closure: Planned May 8-10. Propaganda: MoD train displays captured gear. Easter services/food deliveries heavily promoted.
III. Frontline Developments (by Axis - Focus on Apr 20, post-16:00 & Post-Ceasefire)
Overall: Zelenskyy (20:00 Apr 20) reported 67 Russian assaults since start of day. GSh ZSU (16:00 Apr 20) reported 45 combat clashes. Intense RU activity continued on Pokrovsk axis (most assaults). RU attacks/clashes persisted on Kursk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Lyman axes through Apr 20. Russian sources anticipate intensified fighting post-ceasefire end (00:00 Apr 21), reporting immediate increase in UA activity (Zaporizhzhia, Lyman) and NEW RU activity (Zaporizhzhia - Mali Shcherbaky).
DeepState Map Update (17:19 UTC, Apr 20 - Confirmed/Reinforced by RU Sources): Russian forces occupied Katerynivka (Novopavlivsk axis). Russian forces advanced near Novyi (Lyman axis), Preobrazhenka (Novopavlivsk axis), and in Sukha Balka (Toretsk/Pokrovsk axis junction).
Kursk/Belgorod Axis:12 clashes reported by 16:00 Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). RU claims repelled UA attacks. RU claim 3 civilians injured by UA FPV drone in Nechaevka (Belgorod) during ceasefire. RU claim abandoned UA BMP-2 found. UA drone strikes near Oleshnia. RU claim UA used HIMARS during ceasefire (Zakharova).
Sumy Oblast: RU cross-border shelling Myropilske, Turya. RU claims large UA troop movements from Sumy towards front.
Kharkiv Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported late Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). UA assessed RU potentially used lull to accumulate personnel. Mine incident injured forestry workers (Balakliiskyi forestry).
Kupyansk Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported late Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). UA claimed RU drone attacked vehicle during ceasefire. RU CLAIM: Repelled UA counterattack, used "Groza Leska" FPV system. RU CLAIM (During Ceasefire): UA used mortar fire, drone drops, alleged "napalm" near Krasne Pershe (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Lyman Axis:2 clashes near Nadiia, Myrnyi reported by 16:00 Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). RU attempted clearing Chornyi Zherebets River crossing during lull (DeepState/66th Bde), while simultaneously assaulting other 66th Bde positions. DeepState Map: RU advance near Novyi. RU Claim (Post-Ceasefire): Continued UA drone/arty activity near Terny, Kolodezi (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Siversk Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported late Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). Violations confirmed during ceasefire.
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar / Bakhmut):4 RU attacks near Chasiv Yar, towards Stupochky & Bila Hora reported by 16:00 Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). RU Observation (Post-Ceasefire): Noted increased number of UA drones west of Bakhmut (Dva Mayora/Dnevnik Desantnika video). RU claimed UA forces obstructed RU KIA evacuation. RU source noted significant UA drone advantage (fiber optic FPV).
Toretsk Axis:CRITICAL: Ukrainian soldiers KIA in RU ambush during ceasefire. 2 RU attacks near Druzhba, Toretsk reported by 16:00 Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). Intense RU drone/arty continued through ceasefire. DeepState Map / RU Claims: RU advance in Sukha Balka area. RU Claim (MoD RU): Repelled UA attack near Sukha Balka during ceasefire.
Pokrovsk Axis:HIGHEST ACTIVITY (Zelenskyy 20:00). Earlier (GSh ZSU 16:00): 20 clashes, 2 ongoing. UA ACTION:3rd NGU Operational Brigade repelled RU assault, held positions, pushed RU back, captured 1 RU POW (Operatyvnyi ZSU video). UA ACTION: NGU "Omega" drone unit ("Hostri Kartuzy") documented RU losses on Kurakhove direction (Butusov Plus video). RU shelling hit Uspenivka during ceasefire. UA VIDEO: 110th Mech Bde destroyed 9 RU armored units w/ cages. RU Claim (MoD RU): Repelled UA attack near Bohatyr during ceasefire. DeepState Map: RU advance in Sukha Balka area. UA vehicle evaded RU FPV drone (fiber optic).
Novopavlivsk Axis:2 RU attempts near Skudne and towards Odradne reported by 16:00 Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). RU CLAIM (MoD RU): Liberated Novomykhailivkaprior to the ceasefire (Requires verification). DeepState Map / RU Claims: RU occupied Katerynivka and advanced near Preobrazhenka.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):3 RU attempts repelled near Mala Tokmachka, Stepove reported by 16:00 Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). RU heavily used lull for logistics/fortification. RU Claim (Post-Ceasefire): Intensified UA activity (cluster munitions, FPV, heavy arty) near Huliaipole, Kam'yans'ke, Verbove. NEW RU ACTION (Post-Ceasefire): Russian artillery and tank fire reported targeting UA positions near Mali Shcherbaky (Dnevnik Desantnika). REINFORCED INTEL (RU Claim): Significant UA reinforcements (~1500 personnel from elite units) reported moved into sector during ceasefire.
Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson): No active RU offensive actions reported late Apr 20 (GSh ZSU). UA STRIKES: 40th Arty Bde drones struck RU personnel. RU claimed continued UA attacks on occupied settlements during ceasefire. NEW RU CLAIM (Post-Ceasefire): Increased UA "Baba Yaga" type drone activity observed near Antoniovskyi Bridge (Dnevnik Desantnika).
IV. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire Violations & Civilian Harm: Ceasefire failure led to continued hostilities. Confirmed attack on marked "Proliska" humanitarian aid vehicle near Zorya by RU FPV drone during ceasefire, wounding staff/civilian (LOAC violation). RU claims UA FPV drone injured 3 civilians in Nechaevka, Belgorod during ceasefire. RU claims UA used HIMARS during ceasefire (Zakharova). RU shelling hampered recovery of civilian bodies in Kostyantynivka.
Toretsk Ambush: Confirmed Ukrainian KIA during ceasefire due to RU ambush.
KIA/WIA Recovery & White Flag Incidents:
ALLEGED UA VIOLATION (Heavily Promoted RU IO): Russian sources intensely promoting video allegedly showing Ukrainian forces attacking a Russian evacuation group operating under two white flags. Claimed 1 RU WIA. Presented as major LOAC violation.
RU Claims: Claimed they allowed UA KIA recovery but UA obstructed RU recovery efforts (Kramatorsk axis).
UA noted RU using flags/crosses for cover during engineering works.
POWs:277 Ukrainian servicemen returned (Apr 19 exchange). 1 RU POW captured by 3rd NGU Bde on Pokrovsk axis (Apr 20). Captured RU soldier (34th MRB) interview details poor command/morale. RU IO includes priest visiting UA POWs.
UXO Risk:NEW: 12-year-old boy seriously injured by mine explosion in Tavrovo, Belgorod Oblast (Gladkov). Fire truck hit mine in Kharkiv Oblast forest.
Mobilization Practices: RU claims Ukrainian TCC detaining men near churches. RU propaganda video claims "manhunters" abducting people.
Russian Recruitment Practices: Public opposition reported to sending convicted murderer to front.
ECHR Ruling: ECHR ruled Russia violated freedom of expression in >160 cases related to "discreditation"/"fake news" laws.
