Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 18:54:52 2025
I. Strategic Overview & Information Operations
Ceasefire End & Status:
The unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire officially ended at 00:00 Moscow Time on April 21, with no extension ordered by Putin (Kremlin spokesperson Peskov confirmation via TASS, RVvoenkor, ASTRA, STERNENKO; repeated by Dva Mayora, Dnevnik Desantnika). This aligns with the operational reality of ongoing hostilities throughout the declared period. US State Department expressed a desire for extension, contrasting with the Kremlin's definitive stance.
The ceasefire period (18:00 Apr 19 - 00:00 Apr 21) remained operationally ineffective, characterized by widespread violations and intense information warfare. Czech FM Lipavský termed it a "media stunt."
Ukrainian Assessment (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi, GSh ZSU, KMVA, Operatyvnyi ZSU etc.): Russia demonstrably violated its own declared ceasefire across multiple axes. Russian forces exploited the lull for rotation, resupply, fortification, engineering works (incl. Chornyi Zherebets River crossing attempt), mining, and repositioning. Simultaneous RU Activity During Lull: RU forces conducted engineering work under ceasefire cover while launching assaults against other positions of the same UA brigade (Operatyvnyi ZSU/66th Bde). Skepticism remains regarding the practicality of the ceasefire and US hopes for its extension, given RU actions.
Over 2,000 Russian violations reported since the start of April 20.
67 Russian ground assaults launched against Ukrainian positions across various axes, with the highest concentration on the Pokrovsk axis.
1,355 Russian shelling incidents recorded, including 713 involving heavy weapons.
673 Russian FPV drone uses recorded.
Activity Levels (00:00 - 16:00 Apr 20 - Earlier Report):46 Russian assault actions reported across the front. 901 total Russian shelling incidents, 448 involving heavy weapons. Over 400 Russian FPV drone uses recorded (Zelenskyy). 45 combat clashes recorded by GSh ZSU (16:00).
Post-Ceasefire Activity (RU Claims, ~17:42 Apr 20 & ongoing): Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) report immediate resumption/intensification of Ukrainian fire after the declared ceasefire end, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front (alleged cluster munitions, heavy artillery, FPV drones near Huliaipole, Kam'yans'ke, Verbove) and Lyman axis (UA drone/arty near Terny/Kolodezi). NEW RU Claim: Increased UA "Baba Yaga" type drone activity observed, specifically near the Antoniovskyi Bridge (Kherson axis) post-ceasefire start (Dnevnik Desantnika). General RU anticipation of return to high intensity fighting after 00:00 Apr 21 (Dva Mayora).
CRITICAL (During Ceasefire): Toretsk Ambush: Ukrainian soldiers were ambushed on the Toretsk axis, resulting in confirmed Ukrainian KIA. Zelenskyy vowed retribution.
RU Perspective/Claims During Ceasefire:
Russia maintained adherence claims while accusing Ukraine of massive violations (444 artillery/mortar attacks, 900+ UAV strikes as of midday Apr 20 - Rybar/Dva Mayora; reiterated by Kotenok).
NEW RU Claims of UA Violations: Accused Ukraine of using US HIMARS (MFA Spokesperson Zakharova via TASS, RVvoenkor); mortar fire, drone drops, alleged "napalm" use near Krasne Pershe (Kupyansk axis) (Dnevnik Desantnika); continued attacks on RU energy infrastructure despite alleged moratorium agreement (Zakharova via RVvoenkor, Kotenok).
Claimed repelling UA ground attacks (Sukha Balka, Bohatyr, Popovka-Belgorod, Kursk/Belgorod border). Claimed UA shelling of Chasiv Yar, Kreminna, Horlivka, and occupied/border settlements (Peschanivka, Korsunka, Oleshky, Dnipryany, Nova Zburivka in Kherson).
Claimed UA forces obstructed RU KIA evacuation on most sectors (Voenkor Kotenok claim for Kramatorsk axis), although some mutual evacuation occurred. RU sources claim they allowed UA recovery efforts (Dva Mayora).
HIGHLY PROMOTED RU IO / ALLEGED LOAC VIOLATION: Russian sources (Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika, Dva Mayora with video/timestamps) heavily amplified claims and video allegedly showing Ukrainian forces (drones, tank fire) attacking a Russian evacuation group under two white flags, resulting in 1 RU WIA. Framed as proof of UA "terrorism" and violation of truce norms.
Russian Assessment of UA Ceasefire Activity: RU sources claim Ukraine used the lull for significant regrouping and ammunition resupply across "almost all sectors," occupying grey zones, and maintaining drone activity (Dnevnik Desantnika). Acknowledged own forces also used lull for fortification/resupply (Dva Mayora).
Information Operations: Intense IO continues. Russia blames Ukraine for ceasefire failure, highlights alleged UA attacks on evacuating RU personnel under white flags, and claims UA use of Western weapons (HIMARS) during the pause. RU MoD promoted Easter services for troops (MoD Russia). RU sources frame Zelenskyy's new proposal as insincere, driven by UA AD shortages, and a tactic to prepare for summer operations while hiding military assets in civilian infrastructure (Kotenok, Dva Mayora). RU propaganda continues regarding alleged forced mobilization in Ukraine (Colonelcassad). Fox News "KYIV, RUSSIA" error continues to be discussed, framed by RU sources as potential political signal (Basurin). Ukraine documented RU violations (Operatyvnyi ZSU video), highlighted RU exploitation of the ceasefire, quantified violations (Zelenskyy), and proposed a new de-escalation step.
Geopolitical:
NEW Ukrainian Proposal (Zelenskyy, Apr 20 - Widely Reported): Ukraine proposes a mutual cessation of long-range drone and missile strikes specifically on civilian infrastructure for at least 30 days, with potential for extension. Presented as a test of Russian intent, leveraging the reported absence of air raid alerts on Apr 20 as a potential model. Russia has reportedly not responded to the earlier proposal for a full 30-day ceasefire. RU MFA/milbloggers immediately dismiss the proposal as disingenuous (Zakharova, Kotenok, Dva Mayora).
Ceasefire Diplomacy: US State Dept stated it would welcome an extension of the Easter ceasefire, contrasting with Peskov's confirmation of no extension order. Potential London talks remain unconfirmed.
European Aid Shift: Increasing focus reported on investing in Ukraine's domestic defense industry (€1B for Bohdana SPGs allocated) rather than solely donating stock (Reuters/WP via RBC-Ukraina, Tsaplienko).
Sanctions Evasion: Report alleges German company supplied significant chromium to RU defense industry (Uralvagonzavod) via potential circumvention (Tsaplienko citing Handelsblatt).
Syria: Russia resumes wheat shipments (6600 tons) to Latakia port after pause following Assad government fall (Basurin).
China: Report (SCMP via Tsaplienko) claims successful Chinese test of a novel non-nuclear hydrogen bomb (conventional explosive utilizing magnesium hydride). Strategic implications require monitoring.
Hungary: Initiates national consultation urging citizens to vote against Ukraine's EU accession (Voin DV citing RIA Novosti).
US Policy: Reports of potential US State Dept restructuring focusing resources (Dva Mayora citing Bloomberg).
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Russian Activity (During/Post-Ceasefire Period):
High Intensity Reported: Zelenskyy reported 1355 shellings (713 heavy) and 673 FPV uses by 20:00 Apr 20. Intense RU artillery fire indicated ("333" code - Fighterbomber).
Air Alerts: Notably, no air alerts reported in Ukraine on Apr 20 according to Zelenskyy (as of 20:00), framed as a potential pathway for de-escalation if mutual restraint is shown via his new proposal.
Confirmed Strikes/Violations (During Ceasefire): Shelling of Uspenivka (Pokrovsk). Drone attack on vehicle near Kupyansk (Tsaplienko). Ambush on Toretsk axis. Attack on humanitarian vehicle ("Proliska") near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area). Shelling hampered civilian body recovery in Kostyantynivka.
Alleged Strike: RU "Sudnyi Den" drone allegedly struck UA evacuation transport near Bilohorivka (Lyman/Siversk axis) during ceasefire (STERNENKO).
Historical Strike (Pre-Ceasefire): RU claims Geran (Shahed) drones destroyed UA equipment/personnel transport depot in Sumy Oblast before the ceasefire. Claim RU scouts destroyed 2 US HMMWVs + 1 pickup on Donetsk direction pre-ceasefire (Colonelcassad).
Drone Adaptation/Capability: Russia adapting Shahed drones for reconnaissance and strike coordination (STERNENKO). RU forces used Mavics for water resupply during lull (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video). New Type Claim: Use of fixed-wing FPV drone "Molniya" claimed (pre-ceasefire footage) (Colonelcassad). Advanced UA Drone Tech Observed by RU: RU source notes UA use of FPV drones on fiber optic cables on Kramatorsk axis (Voenkor Kotenok). CONFIRMED (UA Source): Russian use of FPV drones on fiber optic cables confirmed in Donetsk Oblast (Butusov Plus video). RU CLAIM: Use of "Groza Leska" fiber optic FPV system claimed near Kupyansk (Operatsiya Z).
RU AD Claim (During Ceasefire): Intercepted HIMARS/Vilkha over Kursk. Claimed intercept of 48 UA drones overnight Apr 19-20 over Russia (Rybar/Dva Mayora).
UA 53rd Mech Bde (SIGNUM drone bn): Claims destruction of RU comms antennas, 7 vehicles (various types), 1 MT-LB, disrupting RU C2 and logistics (STERNENKO video).
Drone operators from 3rd Bn, 40th Artillery Brigade struck RU personnel concentrations in occupied Kherson Oblast (Tsaplienko/Operatyvnyi ZSU video).
Drone strike near Oleshnia (Kursk/Chernihiv border) by "Specialists" unit (DeepState).
VIDEO: 110th Mech Bde destroyed 9 RU armored units with anti-drone cages on Pokrovsk axis.
VIDEO: FPV drone strike destroyed RU "Bukhanka" van allegedly transporting personnel during Easter (Shef Hayabusa).
RU CLAIMS of UA Activity (During Ceasefire): Use of US HIMARS alleged (Zakharova). Mortar fire, drone drops, alleged "napalm" use near Krasne Pershe (Kupyansk axis) (Dnevnik Desantnika).
RU CLAIMS of UA Activity (Post-Ceasefire): Increased use of "Baba Yaga" type heavy drones, specifically cited near Antoniovskyi Bridge (Kherson axis) (Dnevnik Desantnika). General intense arty/FPV use claimed on Zaporizhzhia front post-00:00 Apr 21.
Drone Evasion: Video shows UA driver successfully evading attacking RU FPV drone (fiber optic) in Donetsk Oblast (Butusov Plus).
Recon Drone Found: Downed RU fixed-wing recon UAV found in Vyshneve, near Kyiv (Tsaplienko).
Needs: Fundraising appeal highlights need for EW systems (24th Aidar) and Mavic 3 drones (114th TDF) (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Logistics:
Ukraine: Received drones/EW boosters (Zaporizhzhia). Kryvyi Rih provided significant aid. CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Record low gas storage (0.66 bcm usable) necessitates large winter imports (Reuters/RVvoenkor). Potential shift in EU aid to domestic production. Movement Claims (RU Source): Large UA troop/equipment movements reported towards front from Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy (Dnevnik Desantnika). UA allegedly used ceasefire for major regrouping/resupply across front (Dnevnik Desantnika). REINFORCED REINFORCEMENT CLAIM (RU SOURCE): Approx. 1500 personnel from elite UA units (Kraken, Ronin, Ptakhi Madiara) reported moved to Zaporizhzhia direction, allegedly using ceasefire for deployment (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Russia: Shipping restored on Don River. Adaptation: Anti-drone cages fitted to North Korean M-1991 MLRS (Sternenko). Remote mining systems claimed used near Bohatyr (Voiv DV). Used lull for fortification/resupply (Dva Mayora). Vulnerability: Potential reliance on German chromium imports reported (Tsaplienko/Handelsblatt). Morale/Logistics Issues: Captured soldier (34th MRB) testimony details severe command issues. Recruitment Issues: Public petition against sending convicted murderer to fight (ASTRA). Kerch Bridge Closure: Planned May 8-10. Propaganda: MoD train displays captured gear. Easter services/food deliveries heavily promoted (MoD Russia).
III. Frontline Developments (by Axis - Focus on Apr 20, post-16:00 & Zelenskyy 20:00 Report)
Overall: Zelenskyy (20:00) reported 67 Russian assaults since start of day (Apr 20). GSh ZSU (16:00) reported 45 combat clashes. Intense RU activity continues on Pokrovsk (most assaults per Zelenskyy). Continued RU attacks/clashes on Kursk (12 by 16:00), Kramatorsk (4 by 16:00), Toretsk (2 by 16:00), Novopavlivsk (2 by 16:00), Orikhiv (3 by 16:00), Lyman (2 by 16:00) axes reported earlier. Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, Dva Mayora) anticipate intensified fighting post-ceasefire end (00:00 Apr 21), reporting immediate increase in UA activity (arty/FPV on Zaporizhzhia; drones/arty on Lyman; "Baba Yaga" drones near Kherson).
DeepState Map Update (17:19 UTC, Apr 20 - Confirmed/Reinforced by RU Sources Apr 20): Russian forces occupied Katerynivka (Novopavlivsk axis). Russian forces advanced near Novyi (Lyman axis), Preobrazhenka (Novopavlivsk axis), and in Sukha Balka (Toretsk/Pokrovsk axis junction). Russian sources claim these advances confirmed by Ukrainian channels (Operatsiya Z/RVvoenkor).
Kursk/Belgorod Axis:12 clashes ongoing/repelled by 16:00 (GSh ZSU). RU claims repelled UA attacks near Popovka-Belgorod, Kursk/Belgorod border. RU claim 3 civilians injured by UA FPV drone in Nechaevka (Belgorod) during ceasefire (Rybar/Dva Mayora). RU claim abandoned UA BMP-2 found in Kursk. UA drone strikes near Oleshnia (DeepState). RU personnel accumulation observed during lull (STERNENKO). RU claims UA used HIMARS during ceasefire (Zakharova).
Sumy Oblast: RU cross-border shelling Myropilske, Turya (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU claims large UA troop movements from Sumy towards front. RU claims UA TCC mobilizing near churches. Historical Strike (Pre-Ceasefire): RU claims Geran drone strike destroyed UA logistics depot (Colonelcassad/RVvoenkor).
Kharkiv Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00). UA Assessment: RU potentially used lull to accumulate personnel (Operatyvnyi ZSU/Tsaplienko). Mine Incident: Fire truck hit mine in Balakliiskyi forestry; 2 forestry workers suffered acute stress reaction (RBC-Ukraina).
Kupyansk Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported by GSh ZSU (16:00). UA claimed RU drone attacked vehicle during ceasefire. RU CLAIM: RU forces (Zapad group) repelled UA counterattack, claimed use of "Groza Leska" FPV system (Operatsiya Z). NEW RU CLAIM (During Ceasefire): UA used mortar fire, drone drops, alleged "napalm" near Krasne Pershe (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Lyman Axis:2 clashes near Nadiia, Myrnyi (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU forces attempted clearing Chornyi Zherebets River crossing during lull (DeepState/66th Bde). Simultaneously assaulted other 66th Bde positions (Operatyvnyi ZSU). DeepState Map: RU advance near Novyi. RU claims advance confirmed by UA sources (Operatsiya Z/RVvoenkor). RU Claim (Post-Ceasefire): Continued UA drone/arty activity near Terny, Kolodezi (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Siversk Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00). Violations confirmed during ceasefire. RU claimed shelling near Bilohorivka. Fundraising appeal for RU "Volki" brigade active here.
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar / Bakhmut):4 RU attacks near Chasiv Yar, towards Stupochky & Bila Hora; 1 clash ongoing (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU claimed UA shelling Chasiv Yar outskirts during ceasefire. RU Claim: UA forces obstructed RU KIA evacuation on this axis (Voenkor Kotenok). RU source noted significant UA drone advantage (FPV on fiber optic) (Voenkor Kotenok).
Toretsk Axis:CRITICAL: Ukrainian soldiers KIA in RU ambush during ceasefire (Zelenskyy/Shef Hayabusa). 2 RU attacks near Druzhba, Toretsk (GSh ZSU 16:00). Intense RU drone/arty use continued through ceasefire period (STERNENKO). DeepState Map / RU Claims: RU advance in Sukha Balka area confirmed/claimed nearly cleared by RU sources (Operatsiya Z/RVvoenkor). RU claimed failed UA counterattack near Sukha Balka during ceasefire (Rybar/Dva Mayora).
Pokrovsk Axis:HIGHEST ACTIVITY (Zelenskyy 20:00). Earlier (GSh ZSU 16:00): 20 clashes near multiple settlements; 2 ongoing. UA OSUV Khortytsia claimed RU forces retreating near Kotlyne. RU shelling hit Uspenivka during ceasefire (DeepState). RU claim UA artillery/drones remained active during ceasefire. RU engineers claimed remote mining near Bohatyr. RU claimed failed UA counterattack near Bohatyr during ceasefire (Rybar/Dva Mayora). UA VIDEO: 110th Mech Bde drone battalion destroyed column of 9 RU armored units with anti-drone cages. DeepState Map: RU advance in Sukha Balka area. RU FPV Threat: UA vehicle forced to evade RU FPV drone (fiber optic) in Donetsk Oblast (Butusov Plus).
Novopavlivsk Axis:2 RU attempts near Skudne and towards Odradne (GSh ZSU 16:00). DeepState Map / RU Claims: RU occupied Katerynivka and advanced near Preobrazhenka; claims confirmed by UA sources (Operatsiya Z/RVvoenkor).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):3 RU attempts repelled near Mala Tokmachka, Stepove (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU heavily used lull for logistics/fortification (STERNENKO). RU sources claimed UA used white flag for KIA recovery near Robotyne. CLAIM: RU launched infantry-only assault Apr 20 (Shef Hayabusa). RU Claim (Post-Ceasefire): Front "revived" with intensified UA activity - cluster munitions, FPV drones, heavy artillery strikes near Huliaipole, Kam'yans'ke, Verbove (Dnevnik Desantnika). REINFORCED INTEL (RU Claim): Significant UA reinforcements (~1500 personnel from elite units "Kraken", "Ronin", "Ptakhi Madiara") reported moved into the sector, alleged to have used ceasefire for deployment (Dnevnik Desantnika). HISTORICAL (Apr 16): UA 128th Bde reported repelling large RU assault (~300 personnel, 40 vehicles) using early detection (RBC-Ukraina).
Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson): No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00). UA STRIKES: 40th Arty Bde drones struck RU personnel concentrations (Tsaplienko/Operatyvnyi ZSU video). RU sources claimed continued UA attacks on occupied settlements during ceasefire (Peschanivka, Korsunka, Oleshky, Dnipryany, Nova Zburivka per Rybar/Dva Mayora). RU claims large UA troop movements from Mykolaiv towards front. NEW RU CLAIM (Post-Ceasefire): Increased UA "Baba Yaga" type drone activity observed near Antoniovskyi Bridge (Dnevnik Desantnika).
IV. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire Violations & Civilian Harm: Ceasefire failure led to continued hostilities. Confirmed attack on marked "Proliska" humanitarian aid vehicle near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area) by RU FPV drone during ceasefire, wounding staff/civilian (LOAC violation). RU claims UA FPV drone injured 3 civilians (incl. 2 children) in Nechaevka, Belgorod during ceasefire (Gladkov/Rybar/Dva Mayora). RU claims UA used HIMARS during ceasefire (Zakharova). RU shelling hampered recovery of civilian bodies in Kostyantynivka. RU claimed UA shelling civilian areas (Kreminna, Horlivka, Kherson Oblast settlements).
Toretsk Ambush: Confirmed Ukrainian KIA during ceasefire due to RU ambush represents a significant violation.
KIA/WIA Recovery & White Flag Incidents:
ALLEGED UA VIOLATION (Heavily Promoted RU Claim): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika) are intensely promoting video footage allegedly showing Ukrainian forces attacking a Russian evacuation group operating under two white flags with FPV drones, grenade drops, and tank fire. Claim resulted in 1 RU WIA. Specific timestamps provided by Dva Mayora (1:30 first impacts, 4:30 FPV strike, 5:20 tank impact, 5:50 FPV strike, 7:40 FPV strike). This is presented as a major LOAC violation and justification for rejecting future truces.
RU Claims: RU sources claim they allowed UA KIA recovery (e.g., near Robotyne) but that UA obstructed RU recovery efforts on Kramatorsk axis (Voenkor Kotenok).
UA noted RU using flags/crosses for cover during engineering works.
POWs:277 Ukrainian servicemen returned in Apr 19 exchange (reconfirmed). Captured RU soldier (34th MRB) interview details poor command/morale. RU IO includes priest visiting UA POWs and alleged torture claims by returned RU POW.
UXO Risk: Child reported seriously injured by mine ("Kolokolchik") in Tavrovo, Belgorod Oblast (TASS/Gladkov). Fire truck hit mine in Kharkiv Oblast forest (RBC-Ukraina).
Mobilization Practices: RU claims Ukrainian TCC detaining men near churches during Easter. RU propaganda video claims "manhunters" abducting people (Colonelcassad).
Russian Recruitment Practices: Public opposition reported in Russia to sending a convicted murderer to the front (ASTRA).
ECHR Ruling: ECHR ruled Russia violated freedom of expression in >160 cases related to "discreditation" and "fake news" laws (ASTRA). Case example: Alexander Shabanov, who sabotaged trains and fled Russia.
