Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 18:24:52 2025
I. Strategic Overview & Information Operations
Ceasefire End & Status:
The unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire officially ended at 00:00 Moscow Time on April 21, with no extension ordered by Putin (Kremlin confirmation via TASS, RVvoenkor, ASTRA, Peskov via STERNENKO). US State Department expressed a desire for extension, contrasting with the Kremlin's stance and the reality of ongoing hostilities (RBC-Ukraina, STERNENKO, Operatyvnyi ZSU).
The ceasefire period (18:00 Apr 19 - 00:00 Apr 21) was characterized by widespread violations and conflicting narratives. It remained operationally ineffective across most fronts. Czech FM Lipavský termed it a "media stunt."
Ukrainian Assessment (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi, GSh ZSU, KMVA, Operatyvnyi ZSU etc.): Russia demonstrably violated its own declared ceasefire across multiple axes during the designated period. Russian forces exploited the lull for rotation, resupply, fortification, engineering works (including clearing a river crossing near the Chornyi Zherebets River - DeepState/66th Bde video), mining, and repositioning. Simultaneous RU Activity: RU forces conducted engineering work under ceasefire cover while launching assaults against other positions of the same UA brigade (Operatyvnyi ZSU/66th Bde). Skepticism expressed regarding the practicality of the ceasefire and US hopes for its extension, given RU actions and the declared end time (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Over 2,000 Russian violations of the ceasefire reported since the start of April 20.
67 Russian ground assaults launched against Ukrainian positions across various axes, with the highest concentration on the Pokrovsk axis.
1,355 Russian shelling incidents recorded, including 713 involving heavy weapons.
673 Russian FPV drone uses recorded.
Activity Levels (00:00 - 16:00 Apr 20 - Earlier Report):46 Russian assault actions reported across the front. 901 total Russian shelling incidents, 448 involving heavy weapons. Over 400 Russian FPV drone uses recorded (Zelenskyy). 45 combat clashes recorded by GSh ZSU (16:00).
Post-Ceasefire Activity (RU Claims, as of ~17:42 Apr 20 & ongoing): Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) report immediate resumption/intensification of Ukrainian fire after the declared ceasefire end, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front, alleging use of cluster munitions, heavy artillery, and increased FPV drone activity near Huliaipole, Kam'yans'ke, and Verbove. Also claim continued UA drone/arty near Terny/Kolodezi (Lyman axis). Further reports of 3 heavy artillery strikes on Zaporizhzhia direction post-ceasefire (Dnevnik Desantnika).
CRITICAL (During Ceasefire): Toretsk Ambush: Ukrainian soldiers were ambushed on the Toretsk axis, resulting in confirmed Ukrainian KIA. Zelenskyy vowed retribution.
RU Perspective/Anticipation: Russian milbloggers acknowledged the ceasefire end, anticipated intensified fighting, noted potential Ukrainian reserve movements/preparations (Dnevnik Desantnika), and immediately began reporting alleged Ukrainian ceasefire violations post-00:00 Apr 21 (Dnevnik Desantnika). Commentary suggests uncertainty on whether specific orders to resume fire at 00:01 were given, despite acknowledgment of ceasefire end (Starshe Eddy).
Russian Violation Claims (During Ceasefire - Rybar/Dva Mayora Summary mid-day Apr 20): Russia maintained adherence claims while accusing Ukraine of massive violations (444 artillery/mortar attacks, 900+ UAV strikes as of midday Apr 20). Claimed repelling UA ground attacks (Sukha Balka, Bohatyr, Popovka-Belgorod, Kursk/Belgorod border). Claimed UA shelling of Chasiv Yar, Kreminna, Horlivka, and attacks on multiple occupied/border settlements (Peschanivka, Korsunka, Oleshky, Dnipryany, Nova Zburivka in Kherson Oblast). Claimed UA forces obstructed RU KIA evacuation on most sectors (Voenkor Kotenok claim for Kramatorsk axis), although some mutual evacuation occurred. REINFORCED CLAIM: RU sources (Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika) heavily promoted video allegedly showing Ukrainian forces (drones, tank fire) attacking a Russian evacuation group under white flags, claiming 1 RU WIA.
Information Operations: Intense IO continued. Russia blamed Ukraine for ceasefire failure and highlighted alleged UA attacks on evacuating RU personnel under white flags (Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika, Shef Hayabusa acknowledges RU predictability). RU sources promoted narratives of high UA losses/morale issues (Kursk border: 47th, 80th Bdes targeted). New RU IO: Narrative attempting to discredit Belgian volunteer with UA 37th Marine Bde (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU Internal IO: Closure of controversial Krasnov memorial in Rostov Oblast (Kotsnews). RU MoD promoted Easter services for troops at the front (MoD Russia). Fox News titling Kyiv as "KYIV, RUSSIA" during Easter broadcast sparks Ukrainian MFA demand for correction, framed by RU sources as potential political signal (Basurin). Ukraine documented RU violations (Operatyvnyi ZSU video), highlighted RU exploitation of the ceasefire, noted RU predictability in war crime narratives (Shef Hayabusa), expressed skepticism about ceasefire practicality (Operatyvnyi ZSU), and quantified violations (Zelenskyy). Fundraising appeals continue on both sides.
Geopolitical:
Ceasefire Diplomacy: Potential talks next week (London) involving US delegation remain reported, focus on 30-day truce. US State Department stated it would welcome an extension of the Easter ceasefire beyond Sunday (RBC-Ukraina). This contrasts with Kremlin statements (Peskov via STERNENKO) that Putin gave no order to extend it and the reality of continued fighting.
NEW Ukrainian Ceasefire Proposal (Zelenskyy, Apr 20): Ukraine proposes a mutual cessation of long-range drone and missile strikes on civilian infrastructure for at least 30 days, with potential for extension. Presented as a test of Russian intent. Russia has reportedly not responded to the earlier proposal for a full 30-day ceasefire.
European Aid Shift: Increasing focus reported on investing in Ukraine's domestic defense industry (€1B for Bohdana SPGs allocated) rather than solely donating stock (Reuters/WP via RBC-Ukraina, Tsaplienko).
Sanctions Evasion: Report alleges German company supplied significant chromium to RU defense industry (Uralvagonzavod) via potential circumvention (Tsaplienko citing Handelsblatt).
Syria: US forces reportedly withdrawing some troops from NE Syria (Voenkor Kotenok). Syria reportedly seeking Azerbaijan's help (linked to Israel by RU source Rybar) in developing NE oil/gas fields. Russia resumes wheat shipments (6600 tons) to Latakia port, Syria, after pause following Assad government fall (Basurin).
China: Report (South China Morning Post via Tsaplienko) claims successful Chinese test of a novel non-nuclear hydrogen bomb (conventional explosive utilizing magnesium hydride for enhanced, sustained fireball). Strategic implications require monitoring.
Hungary: Initiates national consultation urging citizens to vote against Ukraine's EU accession, citing economic concerns (Voin DV citing RIA Novosti).
US Policy: Reports of potential US State Dept restructuring focusing resources on key regions (Indo-Pacific, LatAm, Middle East, Eurasia) and national security language priorities (Chinese, Russian, Farsi, Arabic) by Oct 2025 (Dva Mayora citing Bloomberg).
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Russian Activity (During/Post-Ceasefire Period):
Increased Heavy Weapon & FPV Use: Trend continued through ceasefire, escalating post-10AM Apr 20 (Zelenskyy). 673 FPV uses recorded by 20:00 Apr 20 (Zelenskyy). RU sources claim immediate resumption of high UA FPV activity post-00:00 Apr 21 (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Artillery:1355 shellings (713 heavy) reported by 20:00 Apr 20 (Zelenskyy). 100 arty/MLRS strikes on Kursk axis alone (GSh ZSU 16:00). Intense RU artillery fire indicated ("333" code - Fighterbomber). RU sources claim heavy UA arty/cluster use post-00:00 Apr 21 on Zaporizhzhia front (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Air Alerts: Notably, no air alerts reported in Ukraine today (Apr 20) according to Zelenskyy (as of 20:00), presented as a positive sign for potential de-escalation if mutual restraint is shown.
Confirmed Strikes/Violations (During Ceasefire): Shelling of Uspenivka (Pokrovsk). Drone attack on vehicle near Kupyansk (Tsaplienko). Ambush on Toretsk axis. Attack on humanitarian vehicle ("Proliska") near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area), wounding occupants. Shelling hampered civilian body recovery in Kostyantynivka.
Alleged Strike: RU "Sudnyi Den" drone allegedly struck UA evacuation transport near Bilohorivka (Lyman/Siversk axis) during ceasefire (STERNENKO).
Historical Strike (Pre-Ceasefire): RU sources (Colonelcassad/RVvoenkor) released video claiming Geran (Shahed) drones destroyed UA equipment/personnel transport depot in Sumy Oblast before the ceasefire began. Another claim of RU scouts destroying 2 US HMMWVs and 1 pickup on Donetsk direction pre-ceasefire (Colonelcassad).
Drone Adaptation/Capability: Russia adapting Shahed drones for reconnaissance and strike coordination (STERNENKO). RU forces used Mavics for water resupply during lull (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video). New Type Claim: Use of fixed-wing FPV drone "Molniya" claimed (pre-ceasefire footage) (Colonelcassad). Advanced UA Drone Tech Observed by RU: RU source notes UA use of FPV drones on fiber optic cables on Kramatorsk axis (Voenkor Kotenok). CONFIRMED (UA Source): Russian use of FPV drones on fiber optic cables confirmed in Donetsk Oblast (Butusov Plus video showing UA vehicle evading such a drone). RU CLAIM: Use of "Groza Leska" fiber optic FPV system claimed in repelling UA attack near Kupyansk (Operatsiya Z).
RU AD Claim (During Ceasefire): Intercepted HIMARS/Vilkha over Kursk. Claimed intercept of 48 UA drones overnight Apr 19-20 over Russia (Rybar/Dva Mayora).
UA 53rd Mech Bde (SIGNUM drone bn): Claims destruction of RU comms antennas, 7 vehicles (various types), 1 MT-LB, disrupting RU C2 and logistics (STERNENKO video).
Drone operators from 3rd Bn, 40th Artillery Brigade struck RU personnel concentrations in occupied Kherson Oblast (Tsaplienko/Operatyvnyi ZSU video).
Drone strike near Oleshnia (Kursk/Chernihiv border) by "Specialists" unit (DeepState).
VIDEO: 110th Mech Bde destroyed 9 RU armored units with anti-drone cages on Pokrovsk axis.
VIDEO: FPV drone strike destroyed RU "Bukhanka" van allegedly transporting personnel during Easter (Shef Hayabusa).
Drone Evasion: Video shows UA driver successfully evading attacking RU FPV drone (fiber optic) in Donetsk Oblast (Butusov Plus).
Recon Drone Found: Downed RU fixed-wing recon UAV found in Vyshneve, near Kyiv (Tsaplienko).
Needs: Fundraising appeal highlights need for EW systems (24th Aidar) and Mavic 3 drones (114th TDF) (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Logistics:
Ukraine: Received drones/EW boosters (Zaporizhzhia). Kryvyi Rih provided significant aid. CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Record low gas storage (0.66 bcm usable) necessitates large winter imports (Reuters/RVvoenkor). Potential shift in EU aid to domestic production. Movement Claim (RU Source): Large UA troop/equipment movements reported towards front (Dnevnik Desantnika). NEW REINFORCEMENT CLAIM (RU SOURCE): Approx. 1500 personnel from elite UA units (Kraken, Ronin, Ptakhi Madiara) reported moved to Zaporizhzhia direction (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Russia: Shipping restored on Don River. Adaptation: Anti-drone cages fitted to North Korean M-1991 MLRS (Sternenko). Remote mining systems claimed used near Bohatyr (Voiv DV). Vulnerability: Potential reliance on German chromium imports reported (Tsaplienko/Handelsblatt). Morale/Logistics Issues: Captured soldier (34th MRB) testimony details severe command issues, low pay, desire to eliminate command (Operatyvnyi ZSU/Tsaplienko). Recruitment Issues: Report of public petition in Krasnoyarsk Krai (Russia) against sending a convicted murderer to fight in Ukraine, citing fears and his alleged anti-government views (ASTRA). Kerch Bridge Closure: Planned May 8-10. Propaganda: MoD train displays captured Western gear. Easter services held for troops (MoD Russia).
III. Frontline Developments (by Axis - Focus on Apr 20, post-16:00 & Zelenskyy 20:00 Report)
Overall: Zelenskyy (20:00) reported 67 Russian assaults since start of day (Apr 20). Earlier GSh ZSU (16:00) reported 45 combat clashes. Intense RU activity continues on Pokrovsk (most assaults per Zelenskyy). Continued RU attacks/clashes on Kursk (12 by 16:00), Kramatorsk (4 by 16:00), Toretsk (2 by 16:00), Novopavlivsk (2 by 16:00), Orikhiv (3 by 16:00), Lyman (2 by 16:00) axes reported earlier. Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) report intensified Ukrainian activity immediately post-ceasefire end (00:00 Apr 21) on Zaporizhzhia and Lyman fronts.
DeepState Map Update (17:19 UTC, Apr 20 - Confirmed/Reinforced by RU Sources Apr 20): Russian forces occupied Katerynivka (Novopavlivsk axis). Russian forces advanced near Novyi (Lyman axis), Preobrazhenka (Novopavlivsk axis), and in Sukha Balka (Toretsk/Pokrovsk axis junction). Russian sources claim these advances were confirmed by Ukrainian channels (Operatsiya Z/RVvoenkor).
Kursk/Belgorod Axis:12 clashes reported ongoing/repelled by 16:00 (GSh ZSU). RU claims repelled UA ground attacks near Popovka-Belgorod, Kursk/Belgorod border. RU claim 3 civilians injured by UA FPV drone in Nechaevka (Belgorod) during ceasefire (Rybar/Dva Mayora). RU claim abandoned UA BMP-2 found in Kursk Oblast. UA drone strikes reported near Oleshnia (DeepState). RU personnel accumulation observed during lull (STERNENKO).
Sumy Oblast: RU cross-border shelling on Myropilske, Turya (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU claims large UA troop movements from Sumy towards front. RU claims UA TCC mobilizing near churches. Historical Strike (Pre-Ceasefire): RU claims Geran drone strike destroyed UA logistics depot (Colonelcassad/RVvoenkor).
Kharkiv Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00). UA Assessment: RU potentially used lull to accumulate personnel (Operatyvnyi ZSU/Tsaplienko). Mine Incident: Fire truck responding to large forest fire in Balakliiskyi forestry hit a mine; 2 forestry workers suffered acute stress reaction (RBC-Ukraina).
Kupyansk Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported by GSh ZSU (16:00). UA claimed RU drone attacked vehicle during ceasefire. RU CLAIM: RU forces (Zapad group) repelled UA counterattack, claimed use of "Groza Leska" FPV system (Operatsiya Z).
Lyman Axis:2 clashes near Nadiia, Myrnyi (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU forces attempted clearing Chornyi Zherebets River crossing during lull (DeepState/66th Bde). Simultaneously assaulted other 66th Bde positions (Operatyvnyi ZSU). DeepState Map: RU advance near Novyi. RU claims advance confirmed by UA sources (Operatsiya Z/RVvoenkor). RU Claim (Post-Ceasefire): Continued UA drone/arty activity near Terny, Kolodezi (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Siversk Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00), but violations confirmed during ceasefire. RU claimed shelling near Bilohorivka. Fundraising appeal for RU "Volki" brigade active here.
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar / Bakhmut):4 RU attacks near Chasiv Yar, towards Stupochky & Bila Hora; 1 clash ongoing (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU claimed UA shelling Chasiv Yar outskirts during ceasefire. RU Claim: UA forces obstructed RU KIA evacuation on this axis (Voenkor Kotenok). RU source noted significant UA drone advantage (FPV on fiber optic) (Voenkor Kotenok).
Toretsk Axis:CRITICAL: Ukrainian soldiers KIA in RU ambush during ceasefire (Zelenskyy/Shef Hayabusa). 2 RU attacks near Druzhba, Toretsk (GSh ZSU 16:00). Intense RU drone/arty use continued through ceasefire period (STERNENKO). DeepState Map / RU Claims: RU advance in Sukha Balka area confirmed/claimed nearly cleared by RU sources (Operatsiya Z/RVvoenkor). RU claimed failed UA counterattack near Sukha Balka during ceasefire (Rybar/Dva Mayora).
Pokrovsk Axis:HIGHEST ACTIVITY (Zelenskyy 20:00). Earlier (GSh ZSU 16:00): 20 clashes near multiple settlements; 2 ongoing. UA OSUV Khortytsia claimed RU forces retreating near Kotlyne. RU shelling hit Uspenivka during ceasefire (DeepState). RU claim UA artillery/drones remained active during ceasefire. RU engineers claimed remote mining near Bohatyr. RU claimed failed UA counterattack near Bohatyr during ceasefire (Rybar/Dva Mayora). UA VIDEO: 110th Mech Bde drone battalion destroyed column of 9 RU armored units with anti-drone cages. DeepState Map: RU advance in Sukha Balka area. RU FPV Threat: UA vehicle forced to evade RU FPV drone (fiber optic) in Donetsk Oblast (Butusov Plus).
Novopavlivsk Axis:2 RU attempts near Skudne and towards Odradne (GSh ZSU 16:00). DeepState Map / RU Claims: RU occupied Katerynivka and advanced near Preobrazhenka; claims confirmed by UA sources (Operatsiya Z/RVvoenkor).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):3 RU attempts repelled near Mala Tokmachka, Stepove (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU heavily used lull for logistics/fortification (STERNENKO). RU sources claimed UA used white flag for KIA recovery near Robotyne. CLAIM: RU launched infantry-only assault Apr 20 (Shef Hayabusa). RU Claim (Post-Ceasefire): Front "revived" with intensified UA activity - cluster munitions, FPV drones, heavy artillery strikes near Huliaipole, Kam'yans'ke, Verbove (Dnevnik Desantnika). NEW INTEL (RU Claim): Significant UA reinforcements reported moved into the sector, specifically naming elite units "Kraken", "Ronin", "Ptakhi Madiara" totaling ~1500 personnel, alleged to have used ceasefire for deployment (Dnevnik Desantnika). HISTORICAL (Apr 16): UA 128th Bde reported repelling large RU assault (~300 personnel, 40 vehicles) using early detection via drones and arty (RBC-Ukraina).
Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson): No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00). UA STRIKES: 40th Arty Bde drones struck RU personnel concentrations (Tsaplienko/Operatyvnyi ZSU video). RU sources claimed continued UA attacks on occupied settlements during ceasefire (Peschanivka, Korsunka, Oleshky, Dnipryany, Nova Zburivka per Rybar/Dva Mayora). RU claims large UA troop movements from Mykolaiv towards front.
IV. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire Violations & Civilian Harm: Ceasefire failure led to continued hostilities. Confirmed attack on marked "Proliska" humanitarian aid vehicle near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area) by RU FPV drone during ceasefire, wounding staff/civilian (LOAC violation). RU claims UA FPV drone injured 3 civilians (incl. 2 children) in Nechaevka, Belgorod during ceasefire (Gladkov/Rybar/Dva Mayora). RU shelling hampered recovery of civilian bodies in Kostyantynivka. RU claimed UA shelling civilian areas (Kreminna, Horlivka, Kherson Oblast settlements).
Toretsk Ambush: Confirmed Ukrainian KIA during ceasefire due to RU ambush represents a significant violation.
KIA/WIA Recovery & White Flag Incidents: Both sides reportedly used white flags. RU sources heavily promoted video alleging UA forces attacked a Russian evacuation group under white flags with drones and tank fire, resulting in 1 RU WIA (Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika). RU claims UA obstructed RU recovery efforts on Kramatorsk axis (Voenkor Kotenok). UA noted RU using flags/crosses for cover during engineering works.
POWs:277 Ukrainian servicemen returned in Apr 19 exchange (reconfirmed). Captured RU soldier (34th MRB) interview details poor command/morale. RU IO includes priest visiting UA POWs and alleged torture claims by returned RU POW.
UXO Risk: Child reported seriously injured after mine ("Kolokolchik") kept at home exploded in Tavrovo, Belgorod Oblast (TASS/Gladkov). Fire truck hit mine in Kharkiv Oblast forest while fighting fire (RBC-Ukraina).
Mobilization Practices: RU claims Ukrainian TCC detaining men near churches during Easter period.
Russian Recruitment Practices: Public opposition reported in Russia to sending a convicted murderer to the front (ASTRA).
ECHR Ruling: European Court of Human Rights ruled Russia violated freedom of expression in >160 cases related to "discreditation" and "fake news" laws, awarding compensation (ASTRA). Case example: Alexander Shabanov, who sabotaged trains with Z/V symbols and fled Russia.
