Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 17:54:52 2025
I. Strategic Overview & Information Operations
Ceasefire End & Status:
The unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire officially ended at 00:00 Moscow Time on April 21, with no extension ordered by Putin (Kremlin confirmation via TASS, RVvoenkor, ASTRA, Peskov via STERNENKO).
The ceasefire period (18:00 Apr 19 - 00:00 Apr 21) was characterized by widespread violations and conflicting narratives. It remained operationally ineffective across most fronts. Czech FM Lipavský termed it a "media stunt."
Ukrainian Assessment (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi, GSh ZSU, KMVA, Operatyvnyi ZSU etc.): Russia demonstrably violated its own declared ceasefire across multiple axes during the designated period. Russian forces exploited the lull for rotation, resupply, fortification, engineering works (including clearing a river crossing near the Chornyi Zherebets River - DeepState/66th Bde video), mining, and repositioning. Simultaneous RU Activity: RU forces conducted engineering work under ceasefire cover while launching assaults against other positions of the same UA brigade (Operatyvnyi ZSU/66th Bde). Skepticism expressed regarding the practicality of the ceasefire and US hopes for its extension, given RU actions and the declared end time (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Post-10:00 Apr 20 Escalation: Significant increase in Russian shelling and kamikaze drone use reported after 10:00 AM Apr 20 (Zelenskyy). FPV drone use doubled.
Post-Ceasefire Activity (RU Claims, as of ~17:42 Apr 20): Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) report immediate resumption/intensification of Ukrainian fire after the declared ceasefire end, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front, alleging use of cluster munitions, heavy artillery, and increased FPV drone activity near Huliaipole, Kam'yans'ke, and Verbove. Also claim continued UA drone/arty near Terny/Kolodezi (Lyman axis).
Activity Levels (00:00 - 16:00 Apr 20):46 Russian assault actions reported across the front. 901 total Russian shelling incidents, 448 involving heavy weapons. Over 400 Russian FPV drone uses recorded (Zelenskyy). 45 combat clashes recorded by GSh ZSU (16:00).
Highest RU Activity: Focused on the Pokrovsk axis (20 clashes by 16:00).
CRITICAL (During Ceasefire): Toretsk Ambush: Ukrainian soldiers were ambushed on the Toretsk axis, resulting in confirmed Ukrainian KIA. Zelenskyy vowed retribution.
Russian Violation Claims (During Ceasefire): Russia maintained adherence claims while accusing Ukraine of massive violations (444 artillery/mortar attacks, 900+ UAV strikes as of midday Apr 20 per Rybar). Claimed repelling UA ground attacks (Sukha Balka, Bohatyr, Popovka-Belgorod, Kursk/Belgorod border). Claimed UA shelling of Chasiv Yar and attacks on multiple occupied/border settlements. Claimed UA forces obstructed RU KIA evacuation on most sectors (Voenkor Kotenok claim for Kramatorsk axis), although some mutual evacuation occurred. NEW/REINFORCED CLAIM: RU sources (Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika) heavily promoted video allegedly showing Ukrainian forces (drones, tank fire) attacking a Russian evacuation group under white flags, claiming 1 RU WIA.
Information Operations: Intense IO continued. Russia blamed Ukraine for ceasefire failure and highlighted alleged UA attacks on evacuating RU personnel under white flags (Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika). RU sources promoted narratives of high UA losses/morale issues (Kursk border: 47th, 80th Bdes targeted). New RU IO: Narrative attempting to discredit Belgian volunteer with UA 37th Marine Bde (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU Internal IO: Closure of controversial Krasnov memorial in Rostov Oblast (Kotsnews). RU MoD promoted Easter services for troops at the front (MoD Russia). Ukraine documented RU violations, highlighted RU exploitation of the ceasefire, noted RU predictability in war crime narratives (Shef Hayabusa), and expressed skepticism about ceasefire practicality (Operatyvnyi ZSU). Fundraising appeals continue on both sides.
Geopolitical:
Ceasefire Diplomacy: Potential talks next week (London) involving US delegation remain reported, focus on 30-day truce. US State Department stated it would welcome an extension of the Easter ceasefire beyond Sunday (RBC-Ukraina). This contrasts with Kremlin statements (Peskov via STERNENKO) that Putin gave no order to extend it.
European Aid Shift: Increasing focus reported on investing in Ukraine's domestic defense industry (€1B for Bohdana SPGs allocated) rather than solely donating stock (Reuters/WP via RBC-Ukraina, Tsaplienko).
Sanctions Evasion: Report alleges German company supplied significant chromium to RU defense industry (Uralvagonzavod) via potential circumvention (Tsaplienko citing Handelsblatt).
Syria: US forces reportedly withdrawing some troops from NE Syria (Voenkor Kotenok). Syria reportedly seeking Azerbaijan's help (linked to Israel by RU source Rybar) in developing NE oil/gas fields.
China: Report (South China Morning Post via Tsaplienko) claims successful Chinese test of a novel non-nuclear hydrogen bomb (conventional explosive utilizing magnesium hydride for enhanced, sustained fireball). Strategic implications require monitoring.
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Russian Activity (During/Post-Ceasefire Period):
Increased Heavy Weapon & FPV Use: Trend continued through ceasefire, escalating post-10AM Apr 20 (Zelenskyy). >400 FPV uses recorded by 16:00 Apr 20. RU sources claim immediate resumption of high UA FPV activity post-00:00 Apr 21 (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Artillery:901 shellings (448 heavy) reported by 16:00 Apr 20 (Zelenskyy). 100 arty/MLRS strikes on Kursk axis alone (GSh ZSU 16:00). Intense RU artillery fire indicated ("333" code - Fighterbomber). RU sources claim heavy UA arty/cluster use post-00:00 Apr 21 on Zaporizhzhia front (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Confirmed Strikes/Violations (During Ceasefire): Shelling of Uspenivka (Pokrovsk). Drone attack on vehicle near Kupyansk (Tsaplienko). Ambush on Toretsk axis. Attack on humanitarian vehicle ("Proliska") near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area), wounding occupants. Shelling hampered civilian body recovery in Kostyantynivka.
Alleged Strike: RU "Sudnyi Den" drone allegedly struck UA evacuation transport near Bilohorivka (Lyman/Siversk axis) during ceasefire (STERNENKO).
Historical Strike (Pre-Ceasefire): RU sources (Colonelcassad/RVvoenkor) released video claiming Geran (Shahed) drones destroyed UA equipment/personnel transport depot in Sumy Oblast before the ceasefire began.
Drone Adaptation/Capability: Russia adapting Shahed drones for reconnaissance and strike coordination (STERNENKO). RU forces used Mavics for water resupply during lull (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video). New Type Claim: Use of fixed-wing FPV drone "Molniya" claimed (pre-ceasefire footage) (Colonelcassad). Advanced UA Drone Tech Observed by RU: RU source notes UA use of FPV drones on fiber optic cables on Kramatorsk axis (Voenkor Kotenok). NEW CONFIRMATION (UA Source): Russian use of FPV drones on fiber optic cables confirmed in Donetsk Oblast (Butusov Plus video showing UA vehicle evading such a drone). RU CLAIM: Use of "Groza Leska" fiber optic FPV system claimed in repelling UA attack near Kupyansk (Operatsiya Z).
RU AD Claim (During Ceasefire): Intercepted HIMARS/Vilkha over Kursk.
Confirmed Strikes: Drone operators from 3rd Bn, 40th Artillery Brigade struck RU personnel concentrations in occupied Kherson Oblast (Tsaplienko/Operatyvnyi ZSU video). Drone strike near Oleshnia (Kursk/Chernihiv border) by "Specialists" unit (DeepState). VIDEO: 110th Mech Bde destroyed 9 RU armored units with anti-drone cages on Pokrovsk axis. VIDEO: FPV drone strike destroyed RU "Bukhanka" van allegedly transporting personnel during Easter (Shef Hayabusa).
Drone Evasion: Video shows UA driver successfully evading attacking RU FPV drone (fiber optic) in Donetsk Oblast (Butusov Plus).
Recon Drone Found: Downed RU fixed-wing recon UAV found in Vyshneve, near Kyiv (Tsaplienko).
Needs: Fundraising appeal highlights need for EW systems (24th Aidar) and Mavic 3 drones (114th TDF) (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Logistics:
Ukraine: Received drones/EW boosters (Zaporizhzhia). Kryvyi Rih provided significant aid. CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Record low gas storage (0.66 bcm usable) necessitates large winter imports (Reuters/RVvoenkor). Potential shift in EU aid to domestic production. Movement Claim (RU Source): Large UA troop/equipment movements reported towards front (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Russia: Shipping restored on Don River. Adaptation: Anti-drone cages fitted to North Korean M-1991 MLRS (Sternenko). Remote mining systems claimed used near Bohatyr (Voiv DV). Vulnerability: Potential reliance on German chromium imports reported (Tsaplienko/Handelsblatt). Morale/Logistics Issues: Captured soldier (34th MRB) testimony details severe command issues, low pay, desire to eliminate command (Operatyvnyi ZSU/Tsaplienko). Recruitment Issues: Report of public petition in Krasnoyarsk Krai (Russia) against sending a convicted murderer to fight in Ukraine, citing fears and his alleged anti-government views (ASTRA). Kerch Bridge Closure: Planned May 8-10. Propaganda: MoD train displays captured Western gear. Easter services held for troops (MoD Russia).
III. Frontline Developments (by Axis - Focus on Apr 20, post-16:00)
Overall: GSh ZSU (16:00) reported 45 combat clashes. Intense RU activity on Pokrovsk (20). Continued RU attacks/clashes on Kursk (12), Kramatorsk (4), Toretsk (2), Novopavlivsk (2), Orikhiv (3), Lyman (2) axes. Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) report intensified Ukrainian activity immediately post-ceasefire end (00:00 Apr 21) on Zaporizhzhia and Lyman fronts.
NEW DeepState Map Update (17:19 UTC, Apr 20): Russian forces occupied Katerynivka (likely Novopavlivsk axis). Russian forces advanced near Novyi (Lyman axis), Preobrazhenka (Novopavlivsk axis), and in Sukha Balka (Toretsk/Pokrovsk axis junction).
Kursk/Belgorod Axis:12 clashes reported ongoing/repelled by 16:00 (GSh ZSU). RU claims repelled UA ground attacks. RU claim 3 civilians injured by UA FPV drone in Nechaevka (Belgorod). RU claim abandoned UA BMP-2 found in Kursk Oblast. UA drone strikes reported near Oleshnia (DeepState). RU personnel accumulation observed during lull (STERNENKO).
Sumy Oblast: RU cross-border shelling on Myropilske, Turya (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU claims large UA troop movements from Sumy towards front. RU claims UA TCC mobilizing near churches. Historical Strike (Pre-Ceasefire): RU claims Geran drone strike destroyed UA logistics depot (Colonelcassad/RVvoenkor).
Kharkiv Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00). UA Assessment: RU potentially used lull to accumulate personnel (Operatyvnyi ZSU/Tsaplienko).
Kupyansk Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported by GSh ZSU (16:00). UA claimed RU drone attacked vehicle during ceasefire. RU CLAIM: RU forces (Zapad group) repelled UA counterattack, claimed use of "Groza Leska" FPV system (Operatsiya Z).
Lyman Axis:2 clashes near Nadiia, Myrnyi (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU forces attempted clearing Chornyi Zherebets River crossing during lull (DeepState/66th Bde). Simultaneously assaulted other 66th Bde positions (Operatyvnyi ZSU). DeepState Map: RU advance near Novyi. RU Claim (Post-Ceasefire): Continued UA drone/arty activity near Terny, Kolodezi (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Siversk Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00), but violations confirmed during ceasefire. Fundraising appeal for RU "Volki" brigade active here.
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar / Bakhmut):4 RU attacks near Chasiv Yar, towards Stupochky & Bila Hora; 1 clash ongoing (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU claimed UA shelling Chasiv Yar outskirts. RU Claim: UA forces obstructed RU KIA evacuation on this axis (Voenkor Kotenok). RU source noted significant UA drone advantage (FPV on fiber optic) (Voenkor Kotenok).
Toretsk Axis:CRITICAL: Ukrainian soldiers KIA in RU ambush during ceasefire (Zelenskyy/Shef Hayabusa). 2 RU attacks near Druzhba, Toretsk (GSh ZSU 16:00). Intense RU drone/arty use continued through ceasefire period (STERNENKO). DeepState Map: RU advance in Sukha Balka area.
Pokrovsk Axis:HIGHEST ACTIVITY: 20 clashes near multiple settlements; 2 ongoing (GSh ZSU 16:00). UA OSUV Khortytsia claimed RU forces retreating near Kotlyne. RU shelling hit Uspenivka during ceasefire (DeepState). RU claim UA artillery/drones remained active during ceasefire. RU engineers claimed remote mining near Bohatyr. UA VIDEO: 110th Mech Bde drone battalion destroyed column of 9 RU armored units with anti-drone cages. DeepState Map: RU advance in Sukha Balka area. RU FPV Threat: UA vehicle forced to evade RU FPV drone (fiber optic) in Donetsk Oblast (Butusov Plus).
Novopavlivsk Axis:2 RU attempts near Skudne and towards Odradne (GSh ZSU 16:00). DeepState Map: RU occupied Katerynivka and advanced near Preobrazhenka.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):3 RU attempts repelled near Mala Tokmachka, Stepove (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU heavily used lull for logistics/fortification (STERNENKO). RU sources claimed UA used white flag for KIA recovery near Robotyne. CLAIM: RU launched infantry-only assault Apr 20 (Shef Hayabusa). RU Claim (Post-Ceasefire): Front "revived" with intensified UA activity - cluster munitions, FPV drones, heavy artillery strikes near Huliaipole, Kam'yans'ke, Verbove (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson): No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00). UA STRIKES: 40th Arty Bde drones struck RU personnel concentrations (Tsaplienko/Operatyvnyi ZSU video). RU sources claimed continued UA attacks on occupied settlements during ceasefire. RU claims large UA troop movements from Mykolaiv towards front.
IV. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire Violations & Civilian Harm: Ceasefire failure led to continued hostilities. Confirmed attack on marked "Proliska" humanitarian aid vehicle near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area) by RU FPV drone during ceasefire, wounding staff/civilian (LOAC violation). RU claims UA FPV drone injured 3 civilians (incl. 2 children) in Nechaevka, Belgorod (Gladkov/Rybar). RU shelling hampered recovery of civilian bodies in Kostyantynivka. RU claimed UA shelling civilian areas.
Toretsk Ambush: Confirmed Ukrainian KIA during ceasefire due to RU ambush represents a significant violation.
KIA/WIA Recovery & White Flag Incidents: Both sides reportedly used white flags. RU sources heavily promoted video alleging UA forces attacked a Russian evacuation group under white flags with drones and tank fire, resulting in 1 WIA (Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika). RU claims UA obstructed RU recovery efforts on Kramatorsk axis (Voenkor Kotenok). UA noted RU using flags/crosses for cover during engineering works.
POWs:277 Ukrainian servicemen returned in Apr 19 exchange (reconfirmed). Captured RU soldier (34th MRB) interview details poor command/morale. RU IO includes priest visiting UA POWs and alleged torture claims by returned RU POW.
UXO Risk: Child reported seriously injured after mine ("Kolokolchik") kept at home exploded in Tavrovo, Belgorod Oblast (TASS/Gladkov).
Mobilization Practices: RU claims Ukrainian TCC detaining men near churches during Easter period.
Russian Recruitment Practices: Public opposition reported in Russia to sending a convicted murderer to the front (ASTRA).
