Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 17:24:52 2025
I. Strategic Overview & Information Operations
Ceasefire End & Status:
The unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire officially ended at 00:00 Moscow Time on April 21, with no extension ordered by Putin (Kremlin confirmation via TASS, RVvoenkor, ASTRA, etc.).
The ceasefire period (18:00 Apr 19 - 00:00 Apr 21) was characterized by widespread violations and conflicting narratives. It remained operationally ineffective across most fronts. Czech FM Lipavský termed it a "media stunt."
Ukrainian Assessment (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi, GSh ZSU, KMVA, etc.): Russia demonstrably violated its own declared ceasefire across multiple axes (Kursk, Siversk, Donetsk) during the designated period. Russian forces exploited the lull for rotation, resupply, fortification, engineering works (including clearing a river crossing near the Chornyi Zherebets River - DeepState/66th Bde video), mining, and repositioning. Simultaneous RU Activity: While conducting engineering work under ceasefire cover in one area, RU forces simultaneously launched assaults against other positions of the same UA brigade (Operatyvnyi ZSU/66th Bde).
Post-10:00 Apr 20 Escalation: Significant increase in Russian shelling and kamikaze drone use reported after 10:00 AM Apr 20 (Zelenskyy). FPV drone use doubled.
Activity Levels (00:00 - 16:00 Apr 20):46 Russian assault actions reported across the front. 901 total Russian shelling incidents, 448 involving heavy weapons. Over 400 Russian FPV drone uses recorded (Zelenskyy). 45 combat clashes recorded by GSh ZSU (16:00).
Highest RU Activity: Focused on the Pokrovsk axis (20 clashes by 16:00).
CRITICAL (During Ceasefire): Toretsk Ambush: Ukrainian soldiers were ambushed on the Toretsk axis, resulting in confirmed Ukrainian KIA. Zelenskyy vowed retribution.
RU Perspective/Anticipation: Russian milbloggers acknowledge the ceasefire end and anticipate intensified fighting, noting potential Ukrainian reserve movements and preparations during the lull (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Russian Violation Claims: Russia maintained strict adherence claims while accusing Ukraine of massive violations (444 artillery/mortar attacks, 900+ UAV strikes as of midday Apr 20 per Rybar). Claimed repelling UA ground attacks (Sukha Balka, Bohatyr, Popovka-Belgorod, Kursk/Belgorod border). Claimed UA shelling of Chasiv Yar and attacks on multiple occupied/border settlements. Claimed UA forces obstructed RU KIA evacuation on most sectors (Voenkor Kotenok claim for Kramatorsk axis), although some mutual evacuation using white flags occurred elsewhere (Dnevnik Desantnika). Video highlighted alleging UA attack on RU evac group under white flag (Dnevnik Desantnika citing source).
Information Operations: Intense IO continued, with Russia blaming Ukraine for ceasefire failure. RU sources promoted narratives of high UA losses/morale issues, particularly on the Kursk border (47th, 80th Bdes targeted). New RU IO: Narrative attempting to discredit Belgian volunteer with UA 37th Marine Bde (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU Internal IO: Closure of controversial Krasnov memorial in Rostov Oblast (Kotsnews). Ukraine documented RU violations and highlighted RU exploitation of the ceasefire. Fundraising appeals continue on both sides.
Geopolitical:
Ceasefire Talks (London): Potential talks next week involving US delegation remain reported, focus on 30-day truce. Ukraine awaits positive RU response.
European Aid Shift: Increasing focus reported on investing in Ukraine's domestic defense industry (€1B for Bohdana SPGs allocated) rather than solely donating stock (Reuters/WP via RBC-Ukraina, Tsaplienko).
Sanctions Evasion: Report alleges German company supplied significant chromium (for barrels/shells) to RU defense industry (Uralvagonzavod) via potential sanctions circumvention (Tsaplienko citing Handelsblatt).
Syria: US forces reportedly withdrawing some troops from NE Syria (Voenkor Kotenok). Syria reportedly seeking Azerbaijan's help (linked to Israel by RU source) in developing NE oil/gas fields (Rybar).
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Russian Activity (During Ceasefire Period):
Increased Heavy Weapon & FPV Use: Trend continued through ceasefire, escalating post-10AM Apr 20 (Zelenskyy). >400 FPV uses recorded by 16:00 Apr 20.
Artillery:901 shellings (448 heavy) reported by 16:00 Apr 20 (Zelenskyy). 100 arty/MLRS strikes on Kursk axis alone (GSh ZSU 16:00). Intense RU artillery fire indicated ("333" code - Fighterbomber).
Confirmed Strikes/Violations: Shelling of Uspenivka (Pokrovsk). Drone attack on vehicle near Kupyansk (Tsaplienko). Ambush on Toretsk axis. Attack on humanitarian vehicle ("Proliska") near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area), wounding occupants. Shelling hampered civilian body recovery in Kostyantynivka.
Alleged Strike: RU "Sudnyi Den" drone allegedly struck UA evacuation transport near Bilohorivka (Lyman/Siversk axis) during ceasefire (STERNENKO).
Drone Adaptation: Russia adapting Shahed drones for reconnaissance and real-time strike coordination (STERNENKO). RU forces preparing/using Mavics for water resupply during lull (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video). New Type Claim: Use of fixed-wing FPV drone "Molniya" claimed (pre-ceasefire footage) (Colonelcassad). Advanced UA Drone Tech Observed by RU: RU source notes UA use of FPV drones on fiber optic cables on Kramatorsk axis (Voenkor Kotenok).
RU AD Claim: Intercepted HIMARS/Vilkha over Kursk during ceasefire.
Confirmed Strikes: Drone operators from 3rd Bn, 40th Artillery Brigade conducted strikes on RU personnel concentrations in occupied Kherson Oblast (Tsaplienko/Operatyvnyi ZSU video). Drone strike near Oleshnia (Kursk/Chernihiv border) by "Specialists" unit (DeepState). VIDEO: 110th Mech Bde destroyed 9 RU armored units with anti-drone cages on Pokrovsk axis.
Recon Drone Found: Downed RU fixed-wing recon UAV found in Vyshneve, near Kyiv, indicating potential deep recon or malfunction (Tsaplienko).
Needs: Fundraising appeal highlights need for EW systems (24th Aidar) and Mavic 3 drones (114th TDF) (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Logistics:
Ukraine: Received drones/EW boosters (Zaporizhzhia). Kryvyi Rih provided significant aid. CRITICAL VULNERABILITY: Record low gas storage (0.66 bcm usable) necessitates large winter imports (Reuters/RVvoenkor). Potential shift in EU aid to domestic production. Movement Claim (RU Source): Large UA troop/equipment movements reported towards front (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Russia: Shipping restored on Don River. Adaptation: Anti-drone cages fitted to North Korean M-1991 MLRS (Sternenko). Remote mining systems claimed used near Bohatyr (Voiv DV). Vulnerability: Potential reliance on German chromium imports reported (Tsaplienko/Handelsblatt). Morale/Logistics Issues: Captured soldier (34th MRB) testimony details severe command issues, low pay, desire to eliminate command (Operatyvnyi ZSU/Tsaplienko). Kerch Bridge Closure: Planned May 8-10. Propaganda: MoD train displays captured Western gear (M113, MaxxPro, Kirpi, Senator, Cougar).
III. Frontline Developments (by Axis - Focus on Apr 20)
Overall: GSh ZSU (16:00) reports 45 combat clashes since start of day. Intense RU activity on Pokrovsk (20 clashes). Continued RU attacks/clashes on Kursk (12), Kramatorsk (4), Toretsk (2), Novopavlivsk (2), Orikhiv (3), Lyman (2) axes.
NEW DeepState Map Update (17:19 UTC): Russian forces occupied Katerynivka (likely Novopavlivsk axis or near Kurakhove). Russian forces advanced near Novyi (Lyman axis), Preobrazhenka (Novopavlivsk axis), and in Sukha Balka (Toretsk/Pokrovsk axis junction).
Kursk/Belgorod Axis:12 clashes ongoing/repelled (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU claims repelled UA ground attacks near Popovka (Belgorod) and Kursk/Belgorod junction (Akhmat reinforced). RU claims UA FPV drone injured 3 civilians (incl. 2 children) in Nechaevka (Belgorod). RU claim abandoned UA BMP-2 with cage found in Kursk Oblast (Voenkor Kotenok). UA drone strikes reported near Oleshnia (DeepState). RU personnel accumulation observed during lull (STERNENKO).
Sumy Oblast: RU cross-border shelling on Myropilske, Turya (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU claims large UA troop movements from Sumy towards front (Dnevnik Desantnika). RU claims UA TCC mobilizing near churches (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Kharkiv Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00). UA Assessment: RU potentially used lull to accumulate personnel for renewed assaults (Operatyvnyi ZSU/Tsaplienko citing Khartia).
Kupyansk Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00). UA claimed RU drone attacked vehicle during ceasefire (Tsaplienko).
Lyman Axis:2 clashes near Nadiia, Myrnyi (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU forces attempted clearing Chornyi Zherebets River crossing during lull (DeepState/66th Bde video). Simultaneously assaulted other 66th Bde positions (Operatyvnyi ZSU). DeepState Map: RU advance near Novyi. RU Claim (Archive): Drone strike destroyed UA T-64 SW of Novoselivka (Voin DV).
Siversk Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00), but violations confirmed during ceasefire. Fundraising appeal for RU "Volki" brigade active here (Colonelcassad).
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar / Bakhmut):4 RU attacks near Chasiv Yar, towards Stupochky & Bila Hora; 1 clash ongoing (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU claimed UA shelling Chasiv Yar outskirts. Relative quiet reported in Bakhmut city during ceasefire (RU sources). RU Claim: UA forces obstructed RU KIA evacuation on this axis (Voenkor Kotenok). RU source noted significant UA drone advantage (FPV on fiber optic) (Voenkor Kotenok).
Toretsk Axis:CRITICAL: Ukrainian soldiers KIA in RU ambush during ceasefire (Zelenskyy/Shef Hayabusa). 2 RU attacks near Druzhba, Toretsk (GSh ZSU 16:00). Intense RU drone/arty use continued through ceasefire period (STERNENKO). DeepState Map: RU advance in Sukha Balka area.
Pokrovsk Axis:HIGHEST ACTIVITY: 20 clashes near multiple settlements (Sukha Balka, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Rozlyv); 2 ongoing (GSh ZSU 16:00). UA OSUV Khortytsia claimed RU forces retreating near Kotlyne due to losses. RU shelling hit Uspenivka during ceasefire (DeepState). RU claim UA artillery/drones remained active during ceasefire (Dnevnik Desantnika). RU engineers claimed remote mining near Bohatyr (Voiv DV). UA VIDEO: 110th Mech Bde drone battalion destroyed column of 9 RU armored units with anti-drone cages. DeepState Map: RU advance in Sukha Balka area.
Novopavlivsk Axis:2 RU attempts near Skudne and towards Odradne (GSh ZSU 16:00). DeepState Map: RU occupied Katerynivka and advanced near Preobrazhenka.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):3 RU attempts repelled near Mala Tokmachka, Stepove (GSh ZSU 16:00). RU heavily used lull for logistics/fortification (STERNENKO). RU sources claimed UA used white flag for KIA recovery near Robotyne (Dva Mayora/Dnevnik Desantnika). CLAIM: RU launched infantry-only assault Apr 20 (Shef Hayabusa). RU claims large UA troop movements from Zaporizhzhia towards front (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Prydniprovskyi Axis (Kherson): No active RU offensive actions reported (GSh ZSU 16:00). UA STRIKES: 40th Arty Bde drones struck RU personnel concentrations (Tsaplienko/Operatyvnyi ZSU video). RU sources claimed continued UA attacks on occupied settlements during ceasefire. RU claims large UA troop movements from Mykolaiv towards front (Dnevnik Desantnika).
IV. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire Violations & Civilian Harm: Ceasefire failure led to continued hostilities. Confirmed attack on marked "Proliska" humanitarian aid vehicle near Zorya (Kostyantynivka area) by RU FPV drone during ceasefire, wounding staff/civilian (LOAC violation). RU claims UA FPV drone injured 3 civilians (incl. 2 children) in Nechaevka, Belgorod (Gladkov/Rybar). RU shelling hampered recovery of civilian bodies in Kostyantynivka. RU claimed UA shelling civilian areas (Donetsk, etc.).
Toretsk Ambush: Confirmed Ukrainian KIA during ceasefire due to RU ambush represents a significant violation.
KIA/WIA Recovery: Both sides reportedly used white flags, but RU claims UA obstructed RU recovery efforts on Kramatorsk axis (Voenkor Kotenok) and highlighted video allegedly showing UA attacking RU evac group under white flag (Dnevnik Desantnika). UA noted RU using flags/crosses for cover during engineering works.
POWs:277 Ukrainian servicemen returned in Apr 19 exchange (reconfirmed). Captured RU soldier (34th MRB) interview details poor command/morale (Operatyvnyi ZSU/Tsaplienko). RU IO includes priest visiting UA POWs in Kursk.
UXO Risk: Child reported seriously injured after mine ("Kolokolchik") kept at home exploded in Tavrovo, Belgorod Oblast (TASS/Gladkov). Highlights residual dangers.
Mobilization Practices: RU claims Ukrainian TCC detaining men near churches during Easter period in multiple cities (Dnevnik Desantnika).
