Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 09:54:52 2025
I. Strategic & Information Operations
Easter Ceasefire Status & IO:
Conflicting Narratives: Significant divergence between Ukrainian/Western and Russian accounts regarding adherence to the unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire (active from 18:00 Apr 19).
Russian Claims of Ukrainian Violations (Reinforced):
RU MoD (Apr 20 Briefing & subsequent reports): Claims strict adherence by Russian forces. Accuses Ukrainian forces of 444 artillery/mortar attacks and over 900 UAV strikes against Russian positions after the ceasefire began. Alleges civilian casualties and damage resulted. Claims specific attempted UA ground attacks near Sukha Balka and Bohatyr (Donetsk Oblast) were repelled. Reports 48 UA UAVs used overnight (1 over Crimea). Details 12 shelling incidents, 33 UAV strikes, and 7 munition drops on Russian border regions (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod). RU sources (Kotsnews, Starshe Eddy) reiterate these claims, adding specific locations hit: Kreminna (Luhansk Oblast), Donetsk City (Kalinin district), Horlivka (Donetsk Oblast), Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka (Occupied Kherson).
NEW RU Claim (Kursk): RU source (NgP raZVedka, Colonelcassad) claims Air Defence intercepted a "package" of Ukrainian MLRS rockets (HIMARS or Vilkha) over Kursk Oblast during the ceasefire period.
NEW RU Claim (Chasiv Yar): RU source (TASS) claims Ukrainian forces began shelling the outskirts of Chasiv Yar with MLRS and mortars on the morning of Apr 20.
RU sources continue to frame mercenaries (alleged Colombians in Sumy direction attack claim) as lacking POW status. RU MFA official Miroshnik, TASS, Solovyov Live, Arkhangel Spetsnaza (Soledar report) maintain UA violating ceasefire across multiple fronts. RU sources (Mash) disseminate video allegedly showing UA MLRS firing during ceasefire with shouts of "Christ is Risen".
Ukrainian & Allied Assessment (Reinforced):
DeepState Analysis (Apr 20): Acknowledges a general reduction in combat intensity and unusual quiet on some fronts, with a notable continued absence of Russian KAB strikes and tactical aviation. However, confirms the ceasefire is not being observed overall. Russian forces continue artillery shelling, drone reconnaissance/strikes (including FPV), and ground assaults in specific areas. Russian forces are actively using the period for rotation, personnel/equipment movement, accumulation near the Line of Battle Contact (LBS), mining, fortification, recovering KIA ('200s'), and resupply. (DeepState observation).
OSUV Khortytsia Spokesperson (via Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 20): Reports no significant changes; fighting continues on Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kupyansk axes. States Ukraine is acting "mirror-like", only responding to RU fire, not initiating.
93rd Mech Bde ("Kholodnyi Yar", Donetsk Oblast via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 20): Reports the number of shellings has decreased but finds it "difficult to say if [the ceasefire] is real". Confirms RU continues using artillery, drone drops, and FPV drones.
66th Mech Bde (via Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 20): States brigade continues holding lines while RU attacks positions with artillery and drones. Confirms RU is using the lull for tactical improvement and personnel rotation.
President Zelenskyy (previously noted) observed varied Russian activity. UA sources maintain alleged Donetsk strikes are provocations. UK MFA/EU previously called for real cessation of aggression.
Operational Activity Assessment (RU Sources):
Starshe Eddy/Arkhangel Spetsnaza (Apr 20 Morning): Reported relative quiet/decreased activity on most axes (Kursk, Belgorod, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson ground) but noted continued UA drone activity (Kursk, Belgorod, Pokrovsk, Kherson) and isolated small arms fire (Belgorod).
Dnevnik Desantnika (Apr 20 Morning): Reports UA FPV and recon drones active over Zaporizhzhia axis, artillery quiet. Claims UA arty active near Burlatske (Velyka Novosilka direction).
Poddubny (Apr 20 Morning): Reports missile alert signal in Kursk, first time noted since ceasefire start.
Colonelcassad (Apr 20 Morning): Confirms overall reduced intensity but ongoing fire exchange. Expects cessation of "restrictions" tonight.
Information Operations: Continued heavy Russian framing of alleged mass UA ceasefire violations, alleged mercenary use, tactics (probing attacks). RU sources amplify reports of US political dynamics potentially unfavorable to Ukraine aid/support. RU sources amplify Lavrov statement accusing EU of promoting "nazism" by discouraging May 9th travel to Russia. Fox News Map Error: Continued Ukrainian MFA demands (via Tykhyi, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko) for apology/investigation after Fox News map allegedly labeled Kyiv as Russian territory. Both sides leverage Easter messages/imagery (RU MoD, GSh ZSU, Kotsnews, Alex Parker Returns, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Donetsk OVA drone delivery).
Prisoners of War (POW):
NEW Exchange Confirmed (UA DShV, Apr 20): Ukraine returned 277 servicemen from Russian captivity, including 9 paratroopers. Images of returned soldiers released. Treatment/rehabilitation promised.
GUR representative Yusov previously confirmed preparations for future exchanges, noting RU priorities (Wagner, favored personnel).
UA source (Butusov Plus) previously released interview with captured RU soldier detailing harsh conditions.
Internal Ukrainian Developments:
Second suicide reported among National Academy of State Border Guard Service cadets (RBC-Ukraina).
Internal Russian Developments:
Chelyabinsk authorities promise aid to family of soldier whose children died in fire (TASS).
RU MoD states Putin ordered psychological rehabilitation for returning soldiers.
Oil spill reported during tanker transfer in Sakhalin (TASS).
Geopolitical Context:
Reports persist (NY Post via Tsaplienko, Apr 19) of potential ceasefire agreement discussions in London next week. RU source (Colonelcassad) also mentions London talks and potential US-RU talks next week, anticipating a "bifurcation point" for the conflict's direction.
FT article (via Operativnyi ZSU) highlights potential economic impact on EU taxpayers if sanctions lapse (e.g., Hungarian veto), affecting frozen assets used as collateral for UA loans.
Lukashenko-Putin Meeting: Lukashenko confirms plans to meet Putin at Volgograd forum (TASS).
Alleged UA Aid Request: RU source (Operatsiya Z) reports UA UN rep Melnyk allegedly requesting Germany provide 30% of Bundeswehr equipment, including 150 Taurus missiles by May 6th.
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Russian Claims of Ukrainian Strikes (During Ceasefire Period):
RU MoD (Apr 20): Quantified claims of 444 artillery/mortar attacks, 900+ UAV strikes since 18:00 Apr 19. Claims 48 UAVs overnight Apr 19-20 (1 over Crimea). Claims specific strikes on Donetsk, Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson settlements, and Russian border regions (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod - 12 shelling, 33 UAV, 7 munition drops). NEW Claim: Interception of HIMARS/Vilkha MLRS rockets over Kursk Oblast. NEW Claim: UA MLRS/mortar shelling of Chasiv Yar outskirts (morning Apr 20).
Visuals previously shared by RU sources showed smoke over Donetsk. RU sources report AD activity over Donetsk.
Ukrainian Air Activity / Strikes:
Confirmed: UA Air Force reported Russian reconnaissance UAVs active over Chernihiv Oblast (08:00 UTC Apr 20), AD engaged.
DeepState Analysis: Notes continued UA drone activity during ceasefire period.
Butusov Plus Report (Apr 20): Publishes video showing aftermath of alleged UA FPV drone strike on RU vehicle (claimed 69th Bde filming), confirming casualties.
Drone Delivery: Drones used to deliver Easter Paskas to UA soldiers on the front (Donetsk OVA via RBC-Ukraina).
Previous major claim (Apr 19/20): UA 65th Mech Bde destroyed Russian Buk M3 SAM deep in Zaporizhzhia direction.
Russian Strikes / Air Activity:
DeepState Analysis: Notes continued general absence of Russian KAB and tactical aviation use during the ceasefire period observed so far (as of ~09:00 UTC Apr 20). Russian forces primarily using artillery and drones against UA positions.
Kharkiv Oblast (Syniehubov, Apr 20): Night reported relatively calm. Recaps strikes before 18:00 Apr 19: 16 KABs hit Kupyansk district, 1 missile hit Izium district, destroying 4 private houses. Updates on Apr 18 Kharkiv ballistic missile strike: 17 wounded remain hospitalized.
RU MoD Claim (Apr 20): Claims liberation of Novomykhailivka (Donetsk Oblast) and strikes on UA personnel concentrations in 87 areas occurred before the ceasefire began at 18:00 Apr 19. Claims UA pre-ceasefire losses (standard daily briefing figures). Attribution to "Zapad" Group for Novomykhailivka liberation.
Kursk: Missile alert signal reported morning Apr 20 (Poddubny).
Logistics - Russian:
Confirmed Shipping Disruption: Russian-flagged cargo ship collision blocked shipping channel at Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex (Rostov Oblast) on the Don River (TASS, RU EMERCOM). Potential impact on inland waterway logistics towards Azov Sea.
Fundraising appeals continue (e.g., for drones for "Sotka" unit via Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Logistics - Ukrainian Needs & Supply:
Aid Delivered (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Apr 20): Officials delivered drones, NVGs, EW signal boosters, antennas, charging stations, generators, Starlinks to frontline troops in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Drone Deliveries: Drones used for delivering Easter supplies to soldiers (Donetsk OVA).
Ongoing public fundraising appeals: Powerful EW system for 24th "Aidar" Assault Bn, Mavic 3 drone for 114th Territorial Bde (Operatyvnyi ZSU); EW complexes/antennas for 1st OSHB "Da Vinci Wolves" (DeepState, nearing completion); field camp beds (RBC-Ukraina).
III. Axis Updates (Focus on Current Claims & Activity)
Overall Frontline Assessment (Apr 20):
DeepState/UA Sources: General reduction in intensity, but continued RU shelling, drone use, and localized ground assaults despite ceasefire. RU forces actively rotating, mining, fortifying, recovering KIA. Anticipation of intensified RU attacks post-ceasefire. Fighting confirmed ongoing on Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kupyansk axes (OSUV Khortytsia). Reduced shelling reported by 93rd Bde (Donetsk).
RU MoD: Claims strict RU adherence but massive UA violations including attempted ground attacks (Sukha Balka, Bohatyr) and MLRS strikes (Kursk, Chasiv Yar).
RU Sources (Starshe Eddy/Arkhangel/Colonelcassad): Report relative quiet on most axes, but note continued UA drone activity. Colonelcassad notes overall reduced intensity but expects fighting to resume fully tonight.
Kursk/Belgorod Axis (Border):
NEW RU Claim: Interception of UA HIMARS/Vilkha MLRS rockets over Kursk Oblast (NgP raZVedka/Colonelcassad).
Missile Alert: Signal activated in Kursk morning Apr 20 (Poddubny).
RU MoD: Claims 12 shelling incidents, 33 UAV strikes, 7 munition drops by UA on border regions during ceasefire.
RU sources report continued UA drone activity, occasional small arms fire (Arkhangel).
Claimed RU Liberation: Oleshnia (Kursk Obl.) claimed liberated Apr 19 (RU MoD). UA GSh ZSU map confirmed UA territorial loss in Kursk Oblast (Apr 19). RU sources claim Hornal is last UA holdout.
Alleged Mercenary Attack: RU sources maintain claim of repelled UA attack using alleged Colombian mercenaries (Sumy direction) shortly after ceasefire start (Kotsnews/Poddubny).
Akhmat Claim (Kadyrov_95, Apr 20): Claims repelling illegal border crossing, followed by artillery strikes on supporting UA forces.
Kharkiv Axis (OTU Kharkiv / Syniehubov, Apr 20): Night reported relatively calm. Previous day (Apr 19 before 18:00) saw 16 KABs on Kupyansk district, 1 missile on Izium district.
Kupyansk Axis: Fighting ongoing (OSUV Khortytsia). See Kharkiv Axis update. Previous RU claim (Apr 19) of destroying Oskil reservoir crossing near Horokhovatka.
RU previously claimed shelling of Kreminna during ceasefire. Previous RU claims of advances near Nove, Torske line.
Siversk Axis:
Reported quiet by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
RU soldiers report from Soledar area, claim UA violations (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video).
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):
NEW RU Claim: UA forces began shelling outskirts of Chasiv Yar with MLRS and mortars morning Apr 20 (TASS).
Reported quiet earlier by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
Pokrovsk Axis:
Fighting ongoing (OSUV Khortytsia).
RU MoD Claim: Liberation of Novomykhailivka occurred before ceasefire (Apr 20 Briefing, attributed to "Zapad" Group). Liberation of Shevchenko claimed Apr 19.
RU MoD Claim: Attempted UA ground attack near Bohatyr repelled during ceasefire.
RU Claim (Map Update, Apr 20): RU source (Colonelcassad/divgen) map claims RU forces entered Myrolyubivka. (Note: DeepState Apr 19 reported RU elements entered but were repelled).
Reported largely quiet by RU source, though occasional UA FPV strikes noted (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
Captured RU soldier (5th Tank Bde) interviewed from this axis (Butusov Plus).
Toretsk Axis:
Fighting ongoing (OSUV Khortytsia).
RU MoD Claim: Attempted UA ground attack near Sukha Balka repelled during ceasefire.
RU Claim (Map Update, Apr 20): RU source (Colonelcassad/divgen) map claims RU advance in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), advance near Sukha Balka, and widened control zone near Dyliivka.
Drone Interaction: Report of UA Mavic ramming RU "Baba Yaga" drone on this axis (Colonelcassad).
RU sources claim alleged UA shelling of Horlivka during ceasefire.
Velyka Novosilka Direction:
RU Claim (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20): UA artillery active near Burlatske.
Zaporizhzhia Axis:
Observation (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20 Morning): UA FPV and recon drones active, artillery quiet.
Reported generally quiet by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
UA Aid Delivery: Officials visited frontline, delivered drones, NVGs, EW amps, etc. (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Previous significant UA claim (Apr 19/20): Destruction of RU Buk M3 SAM system.
Kherson Axis:
Reported quiet (no ground fighting) by RU source, but UA FPV/Mavic activity observed from west bank (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
RU sources claim continued UA attacks on Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka during ceasefire (Dnevnik Desantnika, RU MoD, Kotsnews).
IV. Capabilities & Logistics Summary
Ukrainian:
Air Defence/EW: AD likely engaged over Kursk (RU claim MLRS intercept). Facing persistent RU drone threats (recon in Chernihiv, strikes claimed by RU). Needs highlighted by fundraising. Received EW amplifiers/antennas (Zaporizhzhia front).
Drone Capabilities: Active use reported (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson west bank, border regions). FPV strikes continue (e.g., Butusov Plus video evidence). Drone vs. Drone: Mavic reportedly rammed RU heavy drone (Toretsk). Received drones/accessories (Zaporizhzhia front). Used for morale supply delivery (Donetsk front). Fundraising ongoing.
Strike Capabilities: Previous claim of destroying Buk M3 SAM. Alleged strikes claimed by RU (Donetsk, Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson, border regions - quantified by RU MoD). NEW RU Claim: MLRS strikes attempted on Kursk and Chasiv Yar.
Logistics: Receiving critical supplies (NVGs, generators, Starlinks, etc.) on Zaporizhzhia front via regional support (Zaporizhzhia OVA). Drones used for light logistics (Easter Paska delivery). Fundraising ongoing.
Personnel:Successful POW exchange: 277 returned. Recruitment drive for Naval Infantry (18-24) previously noted. Second Border Guard cadet suicide reported. Morale support evident (Easter celebrations, supply drops).
Russian:
Air Power:Continued general absence of KAB/tactical aviation use noted during ceasefire so far (DeepState). Previous high usage rates. Delivered new batch of Su-34s (Apr 19).
Drone Capabilities: Active recon UAVs over Chernihiv (UA AF Report). High volume use claimed by RU MoD (900+ strikes since ceasefire). RU sources report UA drone threat persists despite ceasefire. Needs identified (fundraising appeal for drones - Arkhangel). Heavy drone ("Baba Yaga") reportedly downed by UA Mavic ramming (Toretsk).
Ground Forces/Claims: Claimed liberation of Novomykhailivka (pre-ceasefire). Claimed liberation of Shevchenko (Apr 19), Oleshnia (Apr 19). Map updates claim advances near Redkodub (Lyman), entry into Myrolyubivka (Pokrovsk), advances within Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), near Sukha Balka and Dyliivka (Toretsk). Akhmat unit claims repelling border incursion. Actively using ceasefire lull for rotation, fortification, mining, resupply, KIA recovery (DeepState, 66th Bde).
Logistics:Significant disruption to inland shipping via Don River due to vessel collision blocking Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex lock gate (Rostov Oblast). Drone repair capability noted (Colonelcassad).
Morale/IO: Continued focus on Easter celebrations/messages. Heavy emphasis in state media (MoD, TASS, Kotsnews) on alleged mass UA ceasefire violations vs strict RU adherence. Dissemination of POW interview critical of RU command (via UA source Butusov Plus). Report on domestic tragedy affecting soldier's family.
SAM Systems: AD claimed active over Kursk (intercepted MLRS). Previous UA claim of destroying Buk M3 system (Zaporizhzhia).
V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire & Civilian Harm:
Contradictory Claims: Russia claims strict adherence while alleging massive Ukrainian violations (444 shelling, 900+ UAV strikes, MLRS on Kursk/Chasiv Yar) causing civilian casualties/damage in occupied areas and RU border regions. Ukraine (DeepState, OSUV Khortytsia, 93rd/66th Bdes) notes reduced intensity but continued RU shelling/drone use/assaults in places, and active RU military preparations exploiting the lull.
Specific Incidents (RU Claims during Ceasefire): Strikes alleged on Donetsk City (Kalinin district), Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson settlements (Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka), RU border regions (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod). MLRS strikes alleged on Kursk and Chasiv Yar. RU MoD claims civilian deaths/injuries resulted.
Impact Pre-Ceasefire:Kharkiv: 17 wounded (incl. children) remain hospitalized from Apr 18 ballistic missile strike. Kupyansk district: Hit by 16 KABs Apr 19 (before 18:00). Izium district: Hit by missile Apr 19 (before 18:00). Four houses destroyed.
Prisoners of War:Significant positive development: 277 Ukrainian soldiers returned in exchange. Previous GUR confirmation of exchange preparations. UA released interview with captured RU soldier detailing harsh conditions. RU sources reiterate mercenaries lack POW status.
Information Environment: Intense IO surrounding ceasefire adherence. RU amplifying claims of mass UA violations, alleged mercenary use, alleged direct NATO involvement (HIMARS over Kursk), alleged US Congressman involvement. Fox News map error continues to be focal point for UA MFA demands. Dissemination of POW narratives. RU sources highlight US political context, upcoming talks.
Personnel Welfare:Return of 277 UA POWs provides relief to families. Second suicide among UA Border Guard cadets. Captured RU soldier testimony (Butusov Plus) highlights fear, heavy losses, alleged command indifference. RU report on soldier's family tragedy (Chelyabinsk fire). RU MoD confirms Putin order for psychological rehabilitation for returning soldiers. RU forces reportedly using ceasefire to recover KIA (DeepState).
Critical Infrastructure: RU vessel collision blocks key shipping channel at Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex (Rostov Oblast). Previous reports of significant damage to civilian infrastructure from RU strikes (Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Izium). RU claims UA targeted energy facilities in border regions/occupied areas. Oil spill reported in Sakhalin (RU domestic).
