Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 09:24:52 2025
I. Strategic & Information Operations
Easter Ceasefire Status & IO:
Conflicting Narratives: Significant divergence between Ukrainian/Western and Russian accounts regarding adherence to the unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire (active from 18:00 Apr 19).
Russian Claims of Ukrainian Violations:
RU MoD (Apr 20 Briefing): Claims strict adherence by Russian forces. Accuses Ukrainian forces of 444 artillery/mortar attacks and over 900 UAV strikes against Russian positions after the ceasefire began. Alleges civilian casualties and damage resulted. Claims specific attempted UA ground attacks near Sukha Balka and Bohatyr (Donetsk Oblast) were repelled. Reports 48 UA UAVs used overnight (1 over Crimea). Details 12 shelling incidents, 33 UAV strikes, and 7 munition drops on Russian border regions (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod).
Specific locations cited in earlier RU reports (persisting claims): Donetsk City (gas station, residential areas), Kreminna (Luhansk Oblast), Horlivka (Donetsk Oblast), Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka (Occupied Kherson).
Earlier RU claim of UA attack using alleged Colombian mercenaries (2 KIA claimed) in Sumy direction shortly after ceasefire start (Kotsnews/Poddubny). RU sources continue to frame mercenaries as lacking POW status.
RU MFA official Miroshnik and other RU sources (TASS, Solovyov Live, Arkhangel Spetsnaza reporting from Soledar) continue to state UA violating ceasefire across multiple fronts.
Ukrainian & Allied Assessment:
DeepState Analysis (Apr 20): Acknowledges a general reduction in combat intensity and unusual quiet on some fronts, with a notable absence of Russian KAB strikes and tactical aviation. However, confirms the ceasefire is not being observed overall. Russian forces continue artillery shelling, drone reconnaissance/strikes (including FPV), and ground assaults in specific areas. Russian forces are actively using the period for rotation, personnel/equipment movement, accumulation near the Line of Battle Contact (LBS), mining, and fortification. Ukrainian forces remain active, responding to Russian actions, improving positions, conducting evacuations, and anticipating intensified Russian attacks after the ceasefire period ends.
President Zelenskyy (previously cited by DeepState) noted varied Russian activity across fronts.
UA sources previously framed alleged Donetsk strikes as Russian provocations.
UK MFA: Stated Ukraine committed to ceasefire, called on Russia to end the invasion.
EU Spokesperson: Stated Russia must demonstrate real cessation of aggression.
Operational Activity Assessment (RU Sources):
Starshe Eddy/Arkhangel Spetsnaza (Apr 20 Morning): Reported relative quiet/decreased activity on most axes (Kursk, Belgorod, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson ground) but noted continued UA drone activity (Kursk, Belgorod, Pokrovsk, Kherson) and isolated small arms fire (Belgorod). Expressed skepticism about potential 30-day ceasefire extension, viewing it as potential UA opportunity for reinforcement.
Dnevnik Desantnika (Apr 20 Morning): Reports UA FPV and recon drones active over Zaporizhzhia axis, artillery quiet. Claims UA arty active near Burlatske (Velyka Novosilka direction).
Poddubny (Apr 20 Morning): Reports missile alert signal in Kursk, first time noted since ceasefire start.
Information Operations: Continued Russian framing of alleged UA ceasefire violations, alleged mercenary use, and tactics (probing attacks, "creeping offensive"). RU sources amplify reports of US political dynamics potentially unfavorable to Ukraine aid/support (Trump distrust, aid discussions stalled, potential intel sharing reduction). RU sources amplify Lavrov statement accusing EU of promoting "nazism" by discouraging May 9th travel to Russia. Both sides continue leveraging Easter messages and imagery for morale (RU MoD, GSh ZSU, Kotsnews, Alex Parker Returns, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Prisoners of War (POW):
GUR representative Yusov confirms preparations underway for future exchanges. States Russia prioritizes return of Wagner personnel and individuals favored by specific regional/service leadership.
UA source (Butusov Plus) released interview with captured RU soldier (Maxim Dyrgin, 5th Tank Bde, Buryatia) on Pokrovsk axis, describing heavy losses, fear, alleged command indifference, financial motivation, and desire for exchange but refusal to fight again.
Internal Ukrainian Developments:
Second suicide reported among National Academy of State Border Guard Service cadets (RBC-Ukraina).
Internal Russian Developments:
Chelyabinsk authorities promise aid to family of soldier whose children died in fire (TASS).
RU MoD states Putin ordered psychological rehabilitation for returning soldiers.
Geopolitical Context:
Reports persist (NY Post via Tsaplienko, Apr 19) of potential ceasefire agreement discussions in London next week, claiming high UA support for US framework, uncertain RU stance.
FT article (via Operativnyi ZSU) highlights potential economic impact on EU taxpayers if sanctions on Russia lapse (e.g., due to Hungarian veto), affecting frozen assets used as collateral for UA loans.
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Russian Claims of Ukrainian Strikes (During Ceasefire Period):
RU MoD (Apr 20): Quantified claims of 444 artillery/mortar attacks, 900+ UAV strikes since 18:00 Apr 19. Claims 48 UAVs overnight Apr 19-20 (1 over Crimea). Claims specific strikes on Donetsk, Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson settlements, and Russian border regions (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod - 12 shelling, 33 UAV, 7 munition drops).
Visuals previously shared by RU sources showed smoke over Donetsk. RU sources report AD activity over Donetsk.
Ukrainian Air Activity / Strikes:
Confirmed: UA Air Force reported Russian reconnaissance UAVs active over Chernihiv Oblast (08:00 UTC Apr 20), AD engaged.
DeepState Analysis: Notes continued UA drone activity during ceasefire period.
Butusov Plus Report (Apr 20): Publishes video showing aftermath of alleged UA FPV drone strike on RU vehicle, filmed by RU soldiers (69th Bde), confirming casualties.
Previous major claim (Apr 19/20): UA 65th Mech Bde destroyed Russian Buk M3 SAM deep in Zaporizhzhia direction.
Russian Strikes / Air Activity:
DeepState Analysis: Notes general absence of Russian KAB and tactical aviation use during the ceasefire period observed so far (as of ~09:00 UTC Apr 20). Russian forces primarily using artillery and drones against UA positions.
Kharkiv Oblast (Syniehubov, Apr 20): Night reported relatively calm. Recaps strikes before 18:00 Apr 19: 16 KABs hit Kupyansk district, 1 missile hit Izium district, destroying 4 private houses. Updates on Apr 18 Kharkiv ballistic missile strike: 17 wounded remain hospitalized.
RU MoD Claim (Apr 20): Claims liberation of Novomykhailivka (Donetsk Oblast) and strikes on UA personnel concentrations in 87 areas occurred before the ceasefire began at 18:00 Apr 19. Claims UA pre-ceasefire losses (standard daily briefing figures).
Kursk: Missile alert signal reported morning Apr 20 (Poddubny).
Logistics - Russian:
Confirmed Shipping Disruption: Russian-flagged cargo ship collision blocked shipping channel at Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex (Rostov Oblast) on the Don River (TASS, RU EMERCOM). Potential impact on inland waterway logistics towards Azov Sea.
Fundraising appeals continue (e.g., for drones for "Sotka" unit via Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Logistics - Ukrainian Needs & Supply:
Aid Delivered (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Apr 20): Officials delivered drones, NVGs, EW signal boosters, antennas, charging stations, generators, Starlinks to frontline troops in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Ongoing public fundraising appeals: Powerful EW system for 24th "Aidar" Assault Bn, Mavic 3 drone for 114th Territorial Bde (Operatyvnyi ZSU); EW complexes/antennas for 1st OSHB "Da Vinci Wolves" (DeepState, nearing completion); field camp beds (RBC-Ukraina).
III. Axis Updates (Focus on Current Claims & Activity)
Overall Frontline Assessment (Apr 20):
DeepState: General reduction in intensity, but continued RU shelling, drone use, and localized ground assaults despite ceasefire. RU forces actively rotating, mining, fortifying. Anticipation of intensified RU attacks post-ceasefire.
RU MoD: Claims strict RU adherence but massive UA violations including attempted ground attacks (Sukha Balka, Bohatyr).
RU Sources (Starshe Eddy/Arkhangel): Report relative quiet on most axes (Kursk, Belgorod, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson ground), but note continued UA drone activity.
Kursk/Belgorod Axis (Border):
Missile Alert: Signal activated in Kursk morning Apr 20 (Poddubny).
RU MoD: Claims 12 shelling incidents, 33 UAV strikes, 7 munition drops by UA on border regions during ceasefire.
RU sources report continued UA drone activity, occasional small arms fire (Arkhangel).
Claimed RU Liberation: Oleshnia (Kursk Obl.) claimed liberated Apr 19 (RU MoD). UA GSh ZSU map confirmed UA territorial loss in Kursk Oblast (Apr 19). RU sources claim Hornal is last UA holdout.
Alleged Mercenary Attack: RU sources maintain claim of repelled UA attack using alleged Colombian mercenaries (Sumy direction) shortly after ceasefire start (Kotsnews/Poddubny).
Akhmat Claim (Kadyrov_95, Apr 20): Claims repelling illegal border crossing, followed by artillery strikes on supporting UA forces.
Kharkiv Axis (OTU Kharkiv / Syniehubov, Apr 20): Night reported relatively calm. Previous day (Apr 19 before 18:00) saw 16 KABs on Kupyansk district, 1 missile on Izium district.
Kupyansk Axis: See Kharkiv Axis update. Previous RU claim (Apr 19) of destroying Oskil reservoir crossing near Horokhovatka.
RU previously claimed shelling of Kreminna during ceasefire. Previous RU claims of advances near Nove, Torske line.
Siversk Axis:
Reported quiet by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
RU soldiers report from Soledar area, claim UA violations (Arkhangel Spetsnaza video).
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):
Reported quiet by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
Pokrovsk Axis:
RU MoD Claim: Liberation of Novomykhailivka occurred before ceasefire (Apr 20 Briefing). Liberation of Shevchenko claimed Apr 19.
RU MoD Claim: Attempted UA ground attack near Bohatyr repelled during ceasefire.
RU Claim (Map Update, Apr 20): RU source (Colonelcassad/divgen) map claims RU forces entered Myrolyubivka. (Note: DeepState Apr 19 reported RU elements entered but were repelled).
Reported largely quiet by RU source, though occasional UA FPV strikes noted (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
Captured RU soldier (5th Tank Bde) interviewed from this axis (Butusov Plus).
Toretsk Axis:
RU MoD Claim: Attempted UA ground attack near Sukha Balka repelled during ceasefire.
RU Claim (Map Update, Apr 20): RU source (Colonelcassad/divgen) map claims RU advance in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), advance near Sukha Balka, and widened control zone near Dyliivka.
RU sources claim alleged UA shelling of Horlivka during ceasefire.
Velyka Novosilka Direction:
RU Claim (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20): UA artillery active near Burlatske.
Zaporizhzhia Axis:
Observation (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 20 Morning): UA FPV and recon drones active, artillery quiet.
Reported generally quiet by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
UA Aid Delivery: Officials visited frontline, delivered drones, NVGs, EW amps, etc. (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Previous significant UA claim (Apr 19/20): Destruction of RU Buk M3 SAM system.
Kherson Axis:
Reported quiet (no ground fighting) by RU source, but UA FPV/Mavic activity observed from west bank (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
RU sources claim continued UA attacks on Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka during ceasefire (Dnevnik Desantnika, RU MoD).
IV. Capabilities & Logistics Summary
Ukrainian:
Air Defence/EW: Facing persistent RU drone threats (recon in Chernihiv, strikes claimed by RU). Needs highlighted by fundraising (Aidar Bn EW system, 114 TDF Mavic, 1 OSHB EW systems). Received EW amplifiers/antennas (Zaporizhzhia front).
Drone Capabilities: Active use reported (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson west bank). FPV strikes continue (e.g., Butusov Plus video evidence). Received drones/accessories (Zaporizhzhia front). Fundraising ongoing.
Strike Capabilities: Previous claim of destroying Buk M3 SAM. Alleged strikes claimed by RU (Donetsk, Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson, border regions - now quantified by RU MoD).
Logistics: Receiving critical supplies (NVGs, generators, Starlinks, etc.) on Zaporizhzhia front via regional support (Zaporizhzhia OVA). Fundraising for field camp beds ongoing.
Personnel: Recruitment drive for Naval Infantry (18-24) previously noted. Second Border Guard cadet suicide reported. Morale support evident (Easter celebrations).
Russian:
Air Power:General absence of KAB/tactical aviation use noted during ceasefire so far (DeepState). Previous high usage rates (174 KABs Apr 18). Delivered new batch of Su-34s (Apr 19).
Drone Capabilities: Active recon UAVs over Chernihiv (UA AF Report). High volume use claimed by RU MoD (900+ strikes since ceasefire). RU sources report UA drone threat persists despite ceasefire. Needs identified (fundraising appeal for drones - Arkhangel).
Ground Forces/Claims: Claimed liberation of Novomykhailivka (pre-ceasefire). Claimed liberation of Shevchenko (Apr 19), Oleshnia (Apr 19). Map updates claim advances near Redkodub (Lyman), entry into Myrolyubivka (Pokrovsk), advances within Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), near Sukha Balka and Dyliivka (Toretsk). Akhmat unit claims repelling border incursion.
Logistics:Significant disruption to inland shipping via Don River due to vessel collision blocking Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex lock gate (Rostov Oblast).
Morale/IO: Continued focus on Easter celebrations/messages. Heavy emphasis in state media (MoD, TASS) on alleged mass UA ceasefire violations vs strict RU adherence. Dissemination of POW interview critical of RU command (via UA source Butusov Plus). Report on domestic tragedy affecting soldier's family.
SAM Systems: Previous UA claim of destroying Buk M3 system (Zaporizhzhia).
V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire & Civilian Harm:
Contradictory Claims: Russia claims strict adherence while alleging massive Ukrainian violations (444 shelling, 900+ UAV strikes) causing civilian casualties/damage in occupied areas and RU border regions. Ukraine (DeepState) notes reduced intensity but continued RU shelling/drone use/assaults in places, and active RU military preparations.
Specific Incidents (RU Claims during Ceasefire): Strikes alleged on Donetsk City, Kreminna, Horlivka, occupied Kherson settlements (Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka), RU border regions (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod).
Impact Pre-Ceasefire:Kharkiv: 17 wounded (incl. children) remain hospitalized from Apr 18 ballistic missile strike. Kupyansk district: Hit by 16 KABs Apr 19 (before 18:00). Izium district: Hit by missile Apr 19 (before 18:00). Four houses destroyed.
Prisoners of War: GUR confirms POW exchange preparations ongoing, notes RU priorities. UA released interview with captured RU soldier detailing harsh conditions, fear, alleged command indifference, anti-war sentiment (Butusov Plus). RU sources reiterate mercenaries lack POW status (Kotsnews).
Information Environment: Intense IO surrounding ceasefire adherence. RU amplifying claims of mass UA violations, alleged mercenary use, alleged US Congressman involvement in strikes during ceasefire. Dissemination of POW narratives. RU sources highlight US political context potentially unfavorable to Ukraine. Fox News map error causing diplomatic incident.
Personnel Welfare: Second suicide among UA Border Guard cadets. Captured RU soldier testimony (Butusov Plus) highlights fear, heavy losses, alleged command indifference, financial pressures. RU report on soldier's family tragedy (Chelyabinsk fire). RU MoD confirms Putin order for psychological rehabilitation for returning soldiers.
Critical Infrastructure: RU vessel collision blocks key shipping channel at Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex (Rostov Oblast). Previous reports of significant damage to civilian infrastructure from RU strikes (Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Izium). RU claims UA targeted energy facilities in border regions/occupied areas.
