Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 08:54:52 2025
I. Strategic & Information Operations
Easter Ceasefire Status & IO:
Continued RU Claims of UA Violations:
Strike alleged on Donetsk City (targeting gas station near Elevatornaya St, Budonnivskyi district; also Kalininskyi district near Musketovsky cemetery reported by RU sources Kotenok, Mash, Poddubny, TASS, Colonelcassad, Dnevnik Desantnika, Dnevnik Desantnika details target as gas station). Visuals show smoke plumes. RU source (Alex Parker Returns) reiterates claim of Donetsk shelling.
Strike alleged on Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast overnight (TASS citing Miroshnik; Voenkor Kotenok; Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor reiterates).
Strike alleged on Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast (4x 155mm shells claimed targeting Nikitovsky district) (Voenkor Kotenok; Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor reiterates). WarGonzo report frames Horlivka as under constant threat, including FPVs hitting civilian vehicles/buses.
Strikes alleged on Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka (Occupied Kherson Oblast) since 18:00 Apr 19 (Dnevnik Desantnika). Previous ASTRA report cited Saldo on unspecified occupied Kherson settlements.
NEW (RU Claim): Alleged UA attack using Colombian mercenaries (2 KIA claimed - Tukerris Edison, Andres Zuleta) in Sumy direction shortly after ceasefire start (Kotsnews/Poddubny). RU sources frame this as attempt to exploit ceasefire, reiterate mercenaries lack POW status under Geneva Conventions Additional Protocol I, Art 47.
RU MFA official Miroshnik continues to state UA violating ceasefire on multiple fronts (TASS, Solovyov Live broadcast). Emphasizes UA inability to hold fire even for 30 hours.
UA Counter-Claims: UA sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko) previously framed the alleged Donetsk strike as a Russian provocation.
UK/EU Stance: UK MFA states Ukraine committed to ceasefire, calls on Putin to demonstrate seriousness by ending invasion (RBC-Ukraina, Operatyvnyi ZSU). EU spokesperson states Russia must show real cessation of aggression and clear actions for lasting ceasefire (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Russian Assessment of Ceasefire Activity (RU Source - Starshe Eddy/Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 07:30 UTC Apr 20 / ~08:29 UTC Apr 20):
Kursk: Primarily drone attacks by UA, otherwise quiet. No ceasefire observed (Arkhangel).
Belgorod: High UA drone activity, occasional small arms fire (Arkhangel).
Siversk: Reported quiet (Arkhangel).
Chasiv Yar: Reported quiet, no shelling over Bakhmut (Arkhangel).
Pokrovsk: Reported quiet, occasional UA FPV strikes. RU claims intercepts indicate UA command ordered ceasefire (Arkhangel).
Zaporizhzhia: Reported quiet. RU claims intercepts mention possible extension to 30 days (Arkhangel).
Kherson: Reported quiet (no ground fighting), but UA FPV/Mavic activity observed from opposite bank (Arkhangel).
RU Concern: Potential 30-day ceasefire extension viewed skeptically, potentially allowing UA time for reinforcement, resupply, and preparation for future offensives. RU source (Fighterbomber) plans broadcast focused on "Ceasefire".
Russian Assessment of UA Ceasefire Activity (RU Source - Dnevnik Desantnika, older): Claims UA used the period for regrouping and ammunition resupply across "almost all sectors," occupying grey zones and maintaining drone activity (FPVs noted).
RU Perspective on UA Ceasefire Tactics (RU Source - Poddubny): Describes alleged UA tactics like "frog leap" (probing attacks, small advances like capturing neutral areas - claims alleged mercenary attack falls under this), "creeping offensive" (gradual movement towards RU positions), and "depopulation of frontline strip".
International Media Analysis (Amplified by UA): WSJ analysis previously reported (Operatyvnyi ZSU) suggesting the ceasefire declaration was a "diplomatic victory" for Russia.
Fox News Broadcast Error Continued Discussion: Multiple UA & RU sources previously discussed/highlighted the error labelling Kyiv as "Kyiv, Russia."
US Political Context: RU sources (Kotsnews citing NYT, Le Figaro, WP) highlight reported Trump distrust of Zelenskyy, lack of discussion on new aid packages, potential reduction in intel sharing, and Trump's focus on negotiation. European auto market issues linked to Trump tariffs also noted.
Morale & Religious Themes:
Both sides continue leveraging Easter messages (Zelenskyy via Lysak, Putin via TASS, GSh ZSU, Coordination HQ POWs, RU MoD, Basurin, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Butusov Plus, Strelkov, KiberBoroshno, KMVA).
RU sources (Alex Parker Returns) share images of soldiers with Easter symbols (XB from shells).
NEW (RU POW Interview): UA source (Butusov Plus) releases interview with captured RU soldier (Maxim Dyrgin, 5th Tank Bde, Buryatia) on Pokrovsk axis. Describes heavy losses ("lots of Russian corpses"), fear under shelling (arty, Baba Yaga, FPVs), alleges commanders seek promotions over lives, states war is "simply slaughter," expresses desire for exchange but refusal to return to fight ("better prison"). Claims financial hardship led to enlistment.
NEW (RU Social Issues): Chelyabinsk Oblast authorities promise aid to family of "SVO participant" whose 4 children died in house fire while wife was visiting wounded husband in Moscow hospital (TASS).
Internal Ukrainian Developments:
Procurement Leadership Change: Previous dismissal of First Deputy Minister of Defense Ivan Havryliuk reported (Butusov Plus).
Border Guard Cadet Suicide: Second suicide reported among National Academy of State Border Guard Service cadets; 19-year-old reportedly shot himself while on duty at Chernivtsi Border Detachment post in Bukovina (RBC-Ukraina citing prosecutor's office; Operatyvnyi ZSU reiterates).
Potential Internal Friction: Previous public posts by former Azov commander Krotevich discussed internal politics.
Internal Russian Developments:
Previous reports of anti-war protester (Khabarovsk), murder-suicide (St. Petersburg), mass desertion escape attempt (Krasnodar).
POW Exchange Preparations/Info:
GUR representative Yusov confirms preparations underway for future exchanges (RBC-Ukraina, Apr 20). States Russia prioritizes return of Wagner personnel and individuals favored by specific regional/service leadership.
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Alleged UA Strikes During Ceasefire (RU Claims):
Impacts reported in Donetsk City (Gas station near Elevatornaya St., Budennovskyi district; Kalininskyi & Budonnivskyi districts near cemetery) (Multiple RU sources). RU sources report AD activity over Donetsk (Kotenok, Dnevnik Desantnika, Alex Parker Returns).
Alleged shelling of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast (TASS, Voenkor Kotenok; Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor).
Alleged shelling of Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast (4x 155mm, Nikitovsky district) (Voenkor Kotenok; Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor).
Alleged attacks on Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka (Occupied Kherson Oblast) since 18:00 Apr 19 (Dnevnik Desantnika).
UA Strikes (Claimed):
Major Claim: UA 65th Mech Bde ("Ronin" unit) previously claimed destruction of a Russian Buk M3 SAM system deep behind enemy lines in Zaporizhzhia direction (Sternenko, Apr 19/20).
UA 33rd MRR Drone Ops (Pokrovsk Axis): Previous video showed high intensity drone strikes near Tarasivka.
NEW (Claimed UA MaxxPro Destruction - RU Source): RU "Belye Volki" drone strike allegedly destroyed UA MaxxPro MRAP (Colonelcassad, claims pre-ceasefire footage).
Russian Strikes:
Donetsk Oblast (UA Police Report, past 24h): Previously reported 3523 shelling incidents, 6 settlements hit, civilian casualties in Kostyantynivka, Piddubne.
Older Major Strikes (Apr 18/19): Kharkiv (1 KIA, 114 WIA). Sumy (1 KIA, energy infra). Odesa Oblast (missile attack).
Air Defence / Counter-Drone:
NEW: UA Air Force reports RU recon UAVs active in Chernihiv Oblast, AD engaged (08:00 UTC Apr 20).
RU sources report AD activity over Donetsk (Kotenok, Dnevnik Desantnika, Alex Parker Returns).
RU Claim: Previous claim of RU drone ramming UA "Vampir" drone (Zaporizhzhia).
RU Claim: Previous claim of RU targeting UA "anti-drone corridor" near Pysarivka (Sumy Obl.).
Logistics - Russian:
NEW (Shipping Disruption): Russian-flagged cargo ship collided with lock gate at Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex (Rostov Oblast). No oil spill reported, but shipping channel blocked (TASS, RU EMERCOM). (Potential impact on inland waterway logistics).
Continued public fundraising appeals previously noted (ATVs, drones for Kupyansk; PPE/Med for Siversk/Zaporizhzhia).
Logistics - Ukrainian Needs:
NEW: Ongoing public fundraising appeal for powerful EW system for 24th "Aidar" Assault Bn and Mavic 3 drone for 114th Territorial Bde (Operatyvnyi ZSU). Incentives include signed memorabilia and a damaged Switchblade 300 UAV.
NEW: Ongoing fundraising for EW complexes and antennas for 1st OSHB "Da Vinci Wolves" (DeepState, nearly complete).
Ongoing public fundraising appeal for field camp beds (RBC-Ukraina).
Fundraising for drones observed within Greek Catholic Church (Sternenko).
Potential Procurement Disruption: Previous dismissal of Dep MoD Havryliuk raised concerns (Butusov Plus).
Surveillance Technology: Previous report on US Army investment in high-altitude surveillance aerostats.
III. Axis Updates (Focus on New Claims/Info)
Overall Frontline Summary (RU Source - WarGonzo, Apr 20 Morning): No significant changes from previous summary. Notes positional fighting in Zaporizhzhia, RU advances on Bohatyr/Pokrovsk/Toretsk axes, continued fighting on Kursk/Belgorod border. Claims UA using kamikaze drones despite ceasefire.
Overall Frontline Summary (RU Source - Starshe Eddy/Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 20 Morning): Reports relative quiet / decreased activity on most axes (Kursk, Belgorod, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) due to ceasefire, but notes continued UA drone activity (Kursk, Belgorod, Pokrovsk, Kherson) and isolated small arms fire (Belgorod).
Kursk/Belgorod Axis (Border):
RU sources report continued fighting, UA drone attacks, occasional small arms fire (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
NEW (RU Claim): Alleged UA attack using Colombian mercenaries (2 KIA claimed) in Sumy direction repelled by RU paratroopers (Kotsnews/Poddubny).
Previous RU claims of targeting UA equipment near Pysarivka (Sumy Obl.) and advances.
Kharkiv Axis (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 20 06:38 UTC): No significant changes from previous report (2 RU assaults repelled near Vovchansk / Mala Shapkivka, ongoing RU shelling/drone use).
Kupyansk Axis: Previous RU fundraising appeal for 352nd MRR.
Lyman Axis:
RU claims alleged UA shelling of Kreminna during ceasefire (TASS, Voenkor Kotenok, Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor).
NEW (RU Claim - Map Update): RU source (Colonelcassad/divgen) map claims RU advance towards Redkodub.
Previous RU claims of advances near Nove, Novomykhailivka, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka.
Siversk Axis:
Reported quiet by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy). Previous RU fundraising appeal for "Volki" Brigade.
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):
Reported quiet by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
Pokrovsk Axis:
Reported largely quiet by RU source, though occasional UA FPV strikes noted (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
Previous RU 33rd MRR drone activity near Tarasivka. UA Police reported RU shelling damage in Pokrovsk. Captured RU soldier interview places unit (5th Tank Bde) on this axis (Butusov Plus).
Toretsk Axis:
RU claims pushing UA forces on northern outskirts (WarGonzo). RU claim alleged UA shelling of Horlivka (Voenkor Kotenok, Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor). WarGonzo report highlights continued civilian risk in Horlivka.
NEW (RU Claim - Map Update): RU source (Colonelcassad/divgen) map claims RU advance in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), advance near Sukha Balka, and widened control zone near Dyliivka.
Previous RU claims near capture of Sukha Balka, capture of Valentynivka.
Zaporizhzhia Axis:
Reported quiet by RU source; mentions possibility of 30-day ceasefire extension (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy). WarGonzo notes shift to positional fighting.
Significant UA claim of destroying RU Buk M3 SAM system (65th Mech Bde via Sternenko).
Previous RU claim of destroying UA "Vampir" drone by ramming. Previous RU fundraising appeal for evacuation group.
Kherson Axis:
Reported quiet (no ground fighting) by RU source, but UA FPV/Mavic activity observed from west bank (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshe Eddy).
RU sources claim UA attacks on Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka since evening Apr 19 (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Donetsk Front (Occupied Areas):
Multiple RU sources report alleged UA strikes on Donetsk City (gas station, residential areas) during the ceasefire period. UA sources previously called it a provocation. RU sources report AD activity.
IV. Capabilities & Logistics (Summary of New Points)
Procurement/Logistics: Ongoing fundraising for EW system (Aidar Bn) and Mavic 3 (114 TDF Bde) (Operatyvnyi ZSU). Fundraising for EW systems/antennas (1 OSHB) nearing completion (DeepState). Fundraising continues for field camp beds (RBC-Ukraina) and drones via religious institutions (Sternenko). Previous concerns over Dep MoD dismissal.
Drone Ops: Active use reported from west bank (Kherson Axis) by RU sources (Arkhangel/Starshe Eddy). Continued FPV use claimed near Pokrovsk (Arkhangel/Starshe Eddy). Previous claim of FPVs for deep strikes (Sternenko). Previous RU claim of UA "Vampir" drone loss (Zaporizhzhia).
Counter-Drone Measures: Need highlighted by fundraising appeal for EW system (Aidar Bn). Previous claim of RU targeting UA "anti-drone corridor" (Sumy Obl.).
Personnel:Recruitment drive for Naval Infantry (18-24 age) ongoing (Operatyvnyi ZSU). Second Border Guard cadet suicide reported. Previous critiques of command systems.
Equipment Losses:MaxxPro MRAP loss claimed by RU drone strike (Colonelcassad, pre-ceasefire claim).
Russian:
Drone Ops: Active recon UAVs over Chernihiv Oblast (UA AF Report). RU claims continued UA drone activity despite ceasefire (WarGonzo, Arkhangel/Starshe Eddy). Previous RU claim of destroying UA drone via ramming (Zaporizhzhia). Previous claim of targeting UA counter-drone measures (Sumy Obl.). Previous claim of drone strike on UA MaxxPro.
Logistics/Transport:Shipping channel blocked at Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex (Rostov Oblast) due to vessel collision with lock gate (TASS). Potential impact on Don River / Azov Sea inland transport. Previous public appeals highlight equipment shortages (ATVs, drones, PPE, med supplies).
SAM Systems: Previous UA claim of destroying Buk M3 system (Zaporizhzhia).
Morale/IO: Continued focus on religious events (Easter messages, symbols). Active framing of alleged UA ceasefire violations, including alleged use of mercenaries (Kotsnews). Promotion of narratives about UA tactics during ceasefire (Poddubny). Reports on life in occupied Horlivka (WarGonzo). Dissemination of POW interview critical of RU command/conditions (Butusov Plus). Reports of domestic issues affecting soldiers' families (Chelyabinsk fire).
Claimed Advances: Map updates claim RU progress near Redkodub (Lyman), entry into Myrolyubivka (Pokrovsk), advances within Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), near Sukha Balka and Dyliivka (Toretsk) (Colonelcassad/divgen). Liberation of Oleshnia claimed Apr 19.
V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire Violations & Civilian Harm:
Contradictory claims persist regarding adherence to the declared Easter ceasefire.
RU accuses UA of striking Donetsk (gas station, AD activity suggests ongoing threat), Kreminna, Horlivka (residential district, potential impacts on civilian transport noted by WarGonzo), Aleshky, Hola Prystan, Kakhovka during the ceasefire period.
UA previously accused RU of staging provocation in Donetsk. UK/EU call on Russia to genuinely cease hostilities.
UA Police previously reported civilian casualties (2 KIA, 5 WIA) and significant damage in Kostyantynivka, Piddubne, Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kramatorsk (Donetsk Oblast, past 24h).
The ceasefire appears largely unobserved in terms of drone activity and some shelling incidents, particularly highlighted by RU claims concerning Donetsk, Horlivka, Kreminna, and occupied Kherson settlements. RU assessment (Starshe Eddy) notes general quiet but continued UA drone presence.
Prisoners of War: GUR confirms POW exchange preparations ongoing. Notes RU prioritizes certain categories (Wagner, specific regions/services). UA released interview with captured RU soldier detailing harsh conditions and anti-war sentiment (Butusov Plus). RU sources reiterate mercenaries lack POW status (Kotsnews).
Information Environment: Continued manipulation potential surrounding ceasefire violations, alleged mercenary use (Kotsnews claim), and status of occupied areas (WarGonzo on Horlivka). Dissemination of POW narratives by both sides. RU sources amplify reports of US political dynamics unfavorable to Ukraine aid/support.
Personnel Welfare: Second suicide among UA Border Guard cadets reported. Captured RU soldier testimony highlights fear, heavy losses, alleged command indifference, and financial pressures driving enlistment (Butusov Plus). RU report highlights tragedy affecting soldier's family back home (Chelyabinsk fire). Previous report of RU mass desertion attempt (Krasnodar).
Civilian Infrastructure: RU vessel collision blocks shipping channel at Kochetovsky Hydroelectric Complex (Rostov Oblast), potentially impacting civilian/commercial transport. Previous reports of significant damage to civilian infrastructure from RU strikes (Kostyantynivka, Piddubne, Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipro).
