Military Situation Update: Incorporating Developments up to Sun Apr 20 08:24:52 2025
I. Strategic & Information Operations
Easter Ceasefire Status & IO:
Continued RU Claims of UA Violations:
Strike alleged on Donetsk City (targeting gas station near Elevatornaya St, Budonnivskyi district; also Kalininskyi district near Musketovsky cemetery reported by RU sources Kotenok, Mash, Poddubny, TASS, Colonelcassad, Dnevnik Desantnika, Dnevnik Desantnika details target as gas station). Visuals show smoke plumes.
Strike alleged on Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast overnight (TASS citing Miroshnik; Voenkor Kotenok; Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor reiterates).
Strike alleged on Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast (4x 155mm shells claimed targeting Nikitovsky district) (Voenkor Kotenok; Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor reiterates). WarGonzo report frames Horlivka as under constant threat, including FPVs hitting civilian vehicles/buses.
Strikes alleged on unspecified settlements in occupied Kherson Oblast (ASTRA citing Saldo).
NEW (RU Claim): Alleged UA attack using Colombian mercenaries (2 KIA claimed) in Sumy direction shortly after ceasefire start (Kotsnews/Poddubny). RU sources frame this as attempt to exploit ceasefire, reiterate mercenaries lack POW status.
RU MFA official Miroshnik continues to state UA violating ceasefire on multiple fronts (TASS).
UA Counter-Claims: UA sources (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko) frame the alleged Donetsk strike as a Russian provocation, noting delays in reporting by major RU monitoring channels.
Russian Assessment of Ceasefire Activity (RU Source - Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 07:30 UTC Apr 20):
Kursk: Fighting continues, UA drone attacks reported. No ceasefire observed.
Belgorod: High UA drone activity, occasional small arms fire.
Siversk: Reported quiet.
Chasiv Yar: Reported quiet, no shelling over Bakhmut.
Pokrovsk: Reported quiet, occasional UA FPV strikes. RU claims intercepts indicate UA command ordered ceasefire.
Zaporizhzhia: Reported quiet. RU claims intercepts mention possible extension to 30 days.
Kherson: Reported quiet (no ground fighting), but UA FPV/Mavic activity observed from opposite bank.
RU Concern: Potential 30-day ceasefire extension viewed skeptically, potentially allowing UA time for reinforcement, resupply, and preparation for future offensives.
Russian Assessment of UA Ceasefire Activity (RU Source - Dnevnik Desantnika, older): Claims UA used the period for regrouping and ammunition resupply across "almost all sectors," occupying grey zones and maintaining drone activity (FPVs noted).
RU Perspective on UA Ceasefire Tactics (RU Source - Poddubny): Describes alleged UA tactics like "frog leap" (probing attacks, small advances like capturing neutral areas), "creeping offensive" (gradual movement towards RU positions), and "depopulation of frontline strip".
International Media Analysis (Amplified by UA): WSJ analysis reported (Operatyvnyi ZSU) suggesting the ceasefire declaration was a "diplomatic victory" for Russia, potentially positioning Putin favorably towards Trump by appearing peace-oriented despite violations.
Fox News Broadcast Error Continued Discussion: Multiple UA & RU sources (ASTRA, Alex Parker Returns, Melania Podolyak, Sebast'yan Show) continue discussing/highlighting the Fox News error labelling Kyiv as "Kyiv, Russia."
Morale & Religious Themes:
Both sides continue leveraging Easter messages (Zelenskyy via Lysak, Putin via TASS, GSh ZSU, Coordination HQ POWs, RU MoD, Basurin, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Butusov Plus, Strelkov, KiberBoroshno, KMVA).
RU MoD details delivery of "Savior Not Made by Hands" icon replica to Tsentr Group of Forces at Saur-Mogila memorial (DPR) for morale, to be circulated among frontline units. Religious ceremony held in trench church.
Videos show Easter Paska deliveries to UA frontline troops, including via drone (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko). GSh ZSU shares images juxtaposing Easter traditions and military reality (helmet as basket, soldier with gift box, etc.).
"Holy Fire" arrives in Ukraine via Ustyluh border crossing from Warsaw (RBC-Ukraina, Operativno ZSU).
RU source (Basurin, older) discusses various strategic topics including the ceasefire, peace talks, Trump, drone warfare, economic mobilization, and frontline situation from RU perspective.
Imprisoned RU nationalist figure Strelkov issues Easter message calling for Russia to "rise from the cross," framing the country as on the "threshold of catastrophe."
Internal Ukrainian Developments:
Procurement Leadership Change: Dismissal of First Deputy Minister of Defense Ivan Havryliuk (responsible for arms procurement) reported (Butusov Plus). Criticisms voiced regarding recurring changes, chaos, lack of accountability, and potential corruption/inefficiency in UA MoD procurement system.
Border Guard Cadet Suicide: Second suicide reported among National Academy of State Border Guard Service cadets; 19-year-old reportedly shot himself while on duty at Chernivtsi Border Detachment post in Bukovina (RBC-Ukraina citing prosecutor's office; Operatyvnyi ZSU reiterates).
Potential Internal Friction: Public posts by former Azov commander Krotevich (Jan-Apr) discuss complex factors influencing battlefield outcomes beyond commander ratings, criticize internal politics affecting awards/recognition, and highlight the need for experienced leadership and better inter-agency cooperation (NGU/ZSU).
Internal Russian Developments:
Report of anti-war protester in Khabarovsk (ASTRA, older).
Report of murder-suicide (conscript/contractor) near St. Petersburg (Butusov Plus, older).
Krasnodar Escape Attempt (Apr 18, Confirmed): ~100 RU soldiers detained for desertion reportedly broke out, large security response, at least 3 escaped (RU/UA sources via Butusov Plus). Indicates severe discipline/morale issues.
POW Exchange Preparations: GUR representative Yusov confirms preparations are underway for future operations to return Ukrainian prisoners (RBC-Ukraina). Potential 246-for-246 exchange possibly planned Apr 19 (RU source, older).
II. Air, Missile, Drone Warfare & Logistics Impact
Alleged UA Strikes During Ceasefire (RU Claims):
Impacts reported in Donetsk City (Gas station near Elevatornaya St., Budennovskyi district; Kalininskyi & Budonnivskyi districts near cemetery) (Multiple RU sources).
Alleged shelling of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast (TASS, Voenkor Kotenok; Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor).
Alleged shelling of Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast (4x 155mm, Nikitovsky district) (Voenkor Kotenok; Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor).
UA Strikes (Claimed):
Major Claim: UA 65th Mech Bde ("Ronin" unit) claims destruction of a Russian Buk M3 SAM system deep behind enemy lines in the Zaporizhzhia direction using FPV drones supplied via Sternenko/Ukrnafta fundraising (Sternenko, Apr 19/20). (High-value target if confirmed).
Older (Apr 18/19): Major strike on Kharkiv (1 KIA, 114 WIA). Strikes on Sumy (1 KIA, energy infra hit). KABs launched towards Sumy. Explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Missile attack on Odesa Oblast (Tatarbunary/Tuzly).
Air Defence / Counter-Drone:
NEW: UA Air Force reports RU recon UAVs active in Chernihiv Oblast, AD engaged (08:00 UTC Apr 20).
RU sources report AD activity over Donetsk (Kotenok, Dnevnik Desantnika).
RU Claim: RU 64th Sep Motor Rifle Bde (35th CAA) allegedly destroyed a UA "Vampir" heavy drone by ramming it with another drone on the "Polozhskoye direction" (likely Pology area, Zaporizhzhia) (Voin DV video).
RU Claim: RU special forces ("Anvar") claim attacks on UA equipment near Pysarivka checkpoint (Sumy Oblast), targeting a claimed UA "anti-drone corridor" (netting structure observed previously) (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor). Footage claimed pre-ceasefire.
Logistics - Russian Needs:
Continued public fundraising appeals for specific units:
352nd Motor Rifle Regiment (Kupyansk): Seeking 4 ATVs, Matrice 30T drone, Mavic 3T drone, signal amplifier (Need: ~140k RUB) (Dva Mayora). Highlights need for mobility and advanced recon/spotting drones.
"Volki" Brigade (Siversk), Evacuation Group 10th Coy (Zaporizhzhia), UAV Platoon Reactive Division: Seeking body armor, helmets, medical supplies (kits, backpacks) (Colonelcassad/Z ParaBellum). Highlights need for PPE and medevac support.
Previous appeals for evacuation vehicles (Pokrovsk), basic needs (VDV).
Logistics - Ukrainian Needs:
Ongoing public fundraising appeal for field camp beds for multiple frontline brigades (109th, 143rd, 1st OSHB) (RBC-Ukraina).
NEW: Ongoing fundraising for EW complexes and antennas for 1st OSHB "Da Vinci Wolves" (DeepState, nearly complete).
NEW: Public fundraising for drones observed within Greek Catholic Church (Sternenko).
Potential Procurement Disruption: Dismissal of Dep MoD Havryliuk raises concerns about stability and efficiency of UA arms procurement processes (Butusov Plus). Potential internal corruption alleged previously by RU sources (68th Jaeger Bde).
Surveillance Technology: Report on US Army investment in high-altitude surveillance aerostats (QinetiQ US). Noted that such systems are used by both sides in the current conflict, potentially integrated with AD against long-range drones (Dva Mayora).
Zaporizhzhia: Fighting gradually becoming positional due to high UA drone count and reserves.
Donetsk: RU expanding control on Bohatyr direction. Fierce fighting on Pokrovsk sector. RU pushed UA on northern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk).
Kursk: No significant LoC changes. RU MoD announced Oleshnia liberation (Apr 19).
Belgorod: Claims Demidovka vicinity cleared of UA forces.
General: Claims UA actively using kamikaze drones despite ceasefire.
Kursk/Belgorod Axis (Border):
RU sources report continued fighting (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU claim UA drone attacks and small arms fire persist (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
NEW (RU Claim): Alleged UA attack using Colombian mercenaries (2 KIA claimed) in Sumy direction repelled by RU paratroopers (Kotsnews/Poddubny).
RU forces claim targeting UA equipment near Pysarivka checkpoint (Sumy Obl.) using special forces, attacking claimed UA "anti-drone corridor" (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor, pre-ceasefire).
Older RU Claims (Apr 18): Approached outskirts of Loknya (Sumy Obl.); control ~5km key road (Sumy Obl.); captured Gornalsky Monastery, claim Nikolsky Belogorsky Monastery; fighting near Hornal.
Kharkiv Axis (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 20 06:38 UTC):
Past 24h: 2 RU air strikes (2 KABs), 100 kamikaze drones, 648 shellings.
2 RU assaults near Vovchansk / Mala Shapkivka repelled.
RU fundraising appeal highlights needs for recon unit of 352nd MRR (Dva Mayora).
Lyman Axis:
RU claims alleged UA shelling of Kreminna during ceasefire (TASS, Voenkor Kotenok, Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor).
Older RU Claims (Apr 18): Reached eastern outskirts of Redkodub; fighting in central Nove (advance confirmed by DeepState); advances near Novomykhailivka, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, S of Yampolivka.
Siversk Axis:
Reported quiet by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
RU fundraising appeal highlights needs for "Volki" Brigade (Colonelcassad).
Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar):
Reported quiet by RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Pokrovsk Axis:
Reported largely quiet by RU source, though occasional UA FPV strikes noted (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
RU 33rd MRR (20th Gv MSD) drone units claim high intensity strikes near Tarasivka this week (Dva Mayora video).
UA Police report RU shelling damage in Pokrovsk (past 24h) (ASTRA).
Older: Highest intensity axis Apr 18 (46 RU attacks reported by GSh ZSU). UA DeepState reported pushback near Udachne. RU claimed advances on western flank.
Toretsk Axis:
RU claims pushing UA forces on northern outskirts (WarGonzo). RU claim alleged UA shelling of Horlivka (Voenkor Kotenok, Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor). WarGonzo report highlights continued civilian risk in Horlivka.
Older: RU claims near capture of Sukha Balka (advance confirmed by DeepState); RU MoD confirmed Valentynivka capture (Apr 18).
Zaporizhzhia Axis:
Reported quiet by RU source; mentions possibility of 30-day ceasefire extension (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). WarGonzo notes shift to positional fighting due to UA drones/reserves.
Significant UA Claim: Destruction of RU Buk M3 SAM system claimed by 65th Mech Bde (Sternenko).
RU Claim: RU drone reportedly destroyed UA "Vampir" drone by ramming near Pology (Voin DV video).
RU fundraising appeal highlights needs for evacuation group of 10th Coy, DShP (Colonelcassad).
Older (Apr 18): Multiple explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (night). RU claimed destroying UA MT-12 Rapira in Huliaipole.
Kherson Axis:
Reported quiet (no ground fighting) by RU source, but UA FPV/Mavic activity observed from west bank (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Donetsk Front (Occupied Areas):
Multiple RU sources report alleged UA strikes on Donetsk City (gas station, residential areas) during the ceasefire period. UA sources call it a provocation.
IV. Capabilities & Logistics (Summary of New Points)
Ukrainian:
Claimed Strike Capability: Destruction of high-value RU asset (Buk M3 SAM) claimed in Zaporizhzhia direction (Sternenko). Southern Forces report significant RU losses (Apr 19). OTU Kharkiv reports significant RU losses (Apr 19-20). RU 33rd MRR drone units claim successful strikes near Tarasivka (Pokrovsk Axis). Older reports of successful strikes on RU territory (Shuya barracks, Bryansk bridges, Belgorod).
Procurement/Logistics: Dismissal of Dep MoD Havryliuk raises concerns about procurement stability (Butusov Plus). Fundraising continues for basic necessities like field camp beds (RBC-Ukraina). Fundraising active for EW systems/antennas (1 OSHB) (DeepState) and drones via religious institutions (Sternenko).
Drone Ops: Active use of FPVs for deep strikes claimed (Sternenko). Potential loss of a "Vampir" heavy drone claimed by RU (Zaporizhzhia). Use of drone delivery for morale items (Paskas) (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Counter-Drone Measures: Potential use of "anti-drone corridors" (netting) observed/claimed targeted by RU near Pysarivka (Sumy Obl.) (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor).
Personnel: Report of second Border Guard cadet suicide (Bukovina). Internal critiques of command/rating systems surfaced (Krotevich posts). Ongoing recruitment efforts (Naval Infantry, 18-24 age group targeted) (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Equipment Losses: Potential loss of MaxxPro MRAP claimed by RU drone strike (Colonelcassad, pre-ceasefire). Potential loss of MT-12 Rapira AT gun (Huliaipole, older RU claim).
Russian:
Drone Ops: RU claims destroying UA "Vampir" drone via ramming (Zaporizhzhia). RU drone units active near Tarasivka (Pokrovsk). RU claims targeting UA counter-drone measures (Sumy Obl.). Active drone use reported despite ceasefire claims (WarGonzo). RU source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza) claims low activity on some fronts but notes UA drone presence. Recon UAVs active over Chernihiv Oblast (Apr 20). Claimed drone strike on UA MaxxPro (pre-ceasefire).
Logistics Needs: Public appeals highlight specific equipment shortages for units on multiple axes: ATVs, advanced drones (Matrice 30T, Mavic 3T), signal boosters (Kupyansk); body armor, helmets, medical supplies (Siversk, Zaporizhzhia). Indicates reliance on volunteer networks for essential gear. Older reports suggest issues with medical supplies/evacuation procedures.
SAM Systems: Potential loss of a Buk M3 system claimed by UA (Zaporizhzhia). Older UA claims of Buk M2/Strela-10 destruction.
Morale/IO: Continued focus on religious events (Easter messages, icon deliveries) for morale (MoD Russia, Putin, Strelkov). Active framing of alleged UA ceasefire violations, including alleged use of mercenaries during ceasefire (Kotsnews). Promotion of narratives about UA tactics during ceasefire (Poddubny). Reports on life in occupied Horlivka (WarGonzo).
Surveillance: Use of Aerostats noted as a capability employed by both sides (Dva Mayora).
V. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Ceasefire Violations & Civilian Harm:
Contradictory claims persist. RU accuses UA of striking Donetsk (gas station), Kreminna, Horlivka (residential district, potentially hitting civilian vehicles/buses per WarGonzo), occupied Kherson Oblast during the ceasefire, potentially impacting civilian infrastructure/safety.
UA accuses RU of staging a provocation in Donetsk.
UA Police (Donetsk Oblast, past 24h) report 2 civilians KIA, 5 WIA from RU shelling (covering period likely overlapping pre-ceasefire). Significant damage reported in Kostyantynivka (incl. homes, admin buildings, gas station) and Piddubne (home damaged, 2 WIA). Damage also reported in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Kramatorsk.
The declared ceasefire remains largely ineffective on the ground, with claims of violations from both sides, particularly concerning drone activity and shelling in specific areas (Donetsk, Horlivka, Kreminna, Kursk/Belgorod border).
Religious/Cultural Sites: RU MoD highlights activities at Saur-Mogila memorial and delivery of icon associated with Tsentr Group. Slivochniy Kapriz claims RU forces occupied Belogorsky Nikolsky Monastery (Kursk, older). Arrival of "Holy Fire" in Ukraine noted. Fundraising for UA drones observed within Greek Catholic Church.
Information Environment: Continued manipulation noted (Fox News error discussion). Disinformation potential surrounding ceasefire violations, alleged extensions, and alleged use of mercenaries (Kotsnews claim). Framing of Horlivka situation (WarGonzo).
Personnel Welfare: Report of second suicide among UA Border Guard cadets raises concerns. Confirmed attempted mass escape by detained RU soldiers in Krasnodar (Apr 18) highlights potential severe morale/discipline issues. Older reports indicated poor RU medical evacuation practices.
