Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Derived from Intelligence up to Fri Apr 18 13:24:52 2025)
I. Major Operational & Strategic Developments
Overall Intensity & Frontlines: Combat operations remain focused on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kursk/Sumy border axes. Russian offensive pressure persists, with continued claimed, often contested, incremental gains. As of 16:00 Apr 18, 65 combat clashes reported across the front (UA General Staff).
Key Russian Claims (Weekly MoD Report, Apr 12-18 & Specific Daily Claims):
Territorial Gains (Weekly): Claimed liberation of Kalynove & Valentynivka (Donetsk Oblast, Toretsk Axis, Yug Group); Yelizavetovka & Preobrazhenka (Donetsk Oblast, Pokrovsk Axis, Tsentr Group). These claims, particularly Yelizavetovka & Preobrazhenka, require independent verification and may conflict with other assessments.
Territorial Gains (Daily/Specific): Claimed capture of Valentynivka (Toretsk Axis, confirmed by Colonelcassad 12:11); claimed advances near Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Lysovka (Kupyansk/Lyman Axis, Z Komitet map update 12:12); approx. 1km advance south of Lozova near Borova (Kharkiv/Lyman Axis, Slivochniy Kapriz claim 12:13); advance in eastern Novoye (Oskil/Lyman Axis, Colonelcassad claim 12:21); claimed advances near Makeevka, Novomykhailivka, Novoye (Lyman axis, Z Komitet map update 12:35); advances near Shevchenko, west of Rozlyv (Novopavlivsk Axis); storming the Matrona Moskovskaya mine area, expanding control north of Novokalynove (Pokrovsk Axis); entering Mala Tokmachka (Zaporizhzhia Axis). NEW: RU capture of Gornalsky Monastery (Kursk Oblast) confirmed by RU sources (Voenkor Kotenok 12:56).
Strikes (Weekly Claim): Claimed 9 group strikes (precision weapons/UAVs) targeting Ukrainian defence industry, airfield infrastructure, depots (weapons, ammo, missiles, UAVs, USVs), UAV training centers, and personnel concentrations.
Strikes (Specific Claim Apr 18 Morning / Overnight): Claimed specific group strike targeting key UAV production facilities and military airfield infrastructure. Detailed RU Claim (@don_partizan via Colonelcassad 12:41) alleges series of RU strikes overnight (Apr 17-18) targeting:
Voznesensk Airfield (Mykolaiv Obl.): Iskander-M hit radar/landing systems (RSP-10M), disrupted night ops, UAV base function impacted. (Repeated by Dnevnik Desantnika 13:20)
Kharkiv (Effekt LLC site): Iskander-K hit logistics hub (comms modules, tactical equip packaging, power systems) supporting UAV/comms units. Claimed 3 UA KIA, 4 WIA. Communications warehouse for Kupyansk axis partially disabled.
Mykolaiv (Altoris LLC site): Strike destroyed warehouse supporting USVs (nav blocks, batteries, waterproofing, onboard equip). >500 sq m fire. Claimed logistics center for naval sabotage groups.
Sumy (Former bread factory): UAV strikes hit logistics base (power modules, charging stations, signal processing, storage for equipment/FPVs) supporting border drone units. Main building destroyed. (Colonelcassad 13:21 posts imagery claiming this is the site).
Kursk/Sumy Border Operations (Daily Claim Apr 18): RU MoD claims ongoing "neutralisation" of UA formations in Kursk Oblast. Claimed strikes inflicting losses on multiple UA brigades near Hornal & Oleshnia (Kursk Obl.) and UA positions in Sumy Obl. near Belovody, Vodolagi, Krovnoye, Mogritsa, Sadki, Yunakovka, Yablonovka. Claimed >225 UA losses in the area in 24h. UA GS (16:00 Apr 18) reports repelling 6 RU attacks in Kursk Oblast, 1 ongoing. RU aviation conducted 12 strikes (20 KABs), 134 artillery/mortar attacks on UA positions/settlements in Sumy/Kursk border areas. RU sources claim liberation of Gornalsky Monastery (Kursk), destruction of >200 UA personnel/mercenaries (Voenkor Kotenok 12:56).
Personnel/Equipment Losses (Claimed, Weekly, Very High Figures): >1900 UA losses (Sever Group, Kursk/Belgorod/Kharkiv); >1730 UA losses (Zapad Group, Kupyansk); >2170 UA losses (Yug Group, Toretsk); >2680 UA losses (Tsentr Group, Pokrovsk); >1020 UA losses (Vostok Group, S. Donetsk); >540 UA losses (Dnepr Group, Kherson). Claimed destruction of numerous tanks, AFVs, artillery (incl. Western SPGs), MLRS (incl. HIMARS), EW stations, radars, depots.
Personnel/Equipment Losses (Claimed, Cumulative, Kursk Axis): RU MoD claims total UA losses in Kursk direction since start of hostilities exceed 75,000 troops, 410 tanks, 334 IFVs, 307 APCs, 2,278 other AFVs, 57 MLRS (incl. 15 HIMARS), etc. These cumulative figures are exceptionally high and lack independent verification.NEW Conscript Losses Claim: ASTRA analysis (via UA project "Khochu Naiti") suggests at least 218 RU conscripts likely killed in action, mostly in Kursk/Belgorod border areas (ASTRA 12:40).
Air Defence Claims (Weekly): Claimed downing 1 Ukrainian F-16 aircraft, 45 JDAM bombs, 29 HIMARS projectiles, and 1,618 UAVs. The F-16 claim requires independent verification.
Counter-Energy Strikes Claim: RU MoD claims UA conducted 4 attacks on Russian energy facilities in the past 24 hours (Apr 18), causing damage/outages in Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Voronezh Oblasts (RVvoenkor 12:27, AV Bogomaz 12:30, Dnevnik Desantnika 12:34, Colonelcassad 13:06, MoD Russia 12:55). NEW: Claimed UA drone attack damaged moving vehicle near Belgorod, injuring 1 male civilian (TASS/Gladkov 13:14).
Civilian Damage Blamed on UA AD: RU sources claim civilian damage/casualties in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 18) resulted from Ukrainian AD intercepting Russian missiles over urban areas (@don_partizan via Colonelcassad 12:41).
Ukrainian Structural Reform & Preparedness:
General Staff confirms ongoing reorganization of military command system, including manning, equipping, and training of newly formed Army Corps.
Leadership Change: Lt. Col. Bohdan "Puhach" Hrishenkov appointed new commander of the 12th Special Purpose Brigade "Azov" NGU.
National Resistance Centers: Plans confirmed to establish centers in each oblast to prepare the civilian population for national resistance. RU source commentary notes this plan (Dnevnik Desantnika 12:43).
Student Military Training: Minister of Education Lisovyi states 75-80,000 university students will undergo basic military training; 130 million UAH allocated for 2025 program (Operatyvnyi ZSU 12:47).
Personnel Change (MOD): Ivan Havryliuk dismissed from the post of First Deputy Minister of Defence.
Mobilization Extended: Martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine formally extended by presidential decree until August 6, 2025.
SBU/National Police report liquidation of draft evasion schemes.
Drone Policing: National Police in Zaporizhzhia using drones for park patrols.
Mobilization Incident (Kyiv): Kyiv City TCC confirms altercation, seeks fleeing civilian. RU source posts video alleging TCC forced mobilization attempt in Kharkiv thwarted by wife (Colonelcassad 12:41). NEW RU IO Claim: RU source alleges UA TCC check people against lists of those who paid bribes to avoid mobilization (RVvoenkor 13:07).
Air & Missile Threats:
Threat Status (13:01 UTC): Ballistic threat from East ended. Tactical aviation threat (KABs) persists for North-East (Sumy, Kharkiv). (UA AF 13:01).
Recent Activity:
NEW KAB Launches (Sumy/Kharkiv): Repeat launches reported towards Kharkiv/Sumy Oblasts (~13:03 UTC) (UA AF 13:03). Previous launches towards Sumy (~12:37 UTC) and Kharkiv (~12:12 UTC).
Ballistic Threat Alert for East/Zaporizhzhia (~12:24 UTC) ended (~12:59 UTC).
Persistent high levels of Russian air and missile activity observed. Tactical aviation remains active (NE, SE), posing air-launched weapon threat. Ongoing Russian reconnaissance UAV activity reported.
RU Strike Tactic Analysis: Aviation expert V. Romanenko details RU tactic using sequential Iskander ballistic missiles: first with unitary warhead, followed quickly by a cluster munition variant targeting responders (RBC-Ukraina 12:37).
Major Strikes & Consequences:
Sumy City (Apr 18): 1 civilian KIA reported from RU strike on confectionery workshop. RU sources claim military logistics/drone hub (Colonelcassad 12:41, 13:21 posts imagery).
Kharkiv City (Apr 18): UPDATED Toll - 1 civilian KIA, 103 WIA (incl. 8 children) from RU ballistic missile strike (reported Iskander-K cluster type) (Operatyvnyi ZSU 13:04, RBC-Ukraina 13:06, ASTRA 13:08). Significant damage to residential buildings, 4 educational institutions, 25 vehicles. RU sources claim military target (logistics hub at Effekt LLC site), blame UA AD for civilian damage (Colonelcassad 12:41). RU sources report casualties due to alleged poor decisions/ignoring orders at a school housing personnel (Alex Parker Returns 12:57 - low confidence source/claim).
Kursk City, Russia (Apr 18, morning): Explosion reported coinciding with Ukrainian ballistic missile threat warnings. Requires verification.
Lomakovka, Bryansk Oblast, Russia (Apr 18): RU Gov claims repeated UA mortar/drone attacks destroyed house, wounded 1 civilian.
Near Belgorod, Russia (Apr 18): RU Gov claims UA drone attacked moving car, wounding 1 male civilian (TASS/Gladkov 13:14).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 18): RU sources claim damage to civilian infrastructure resulted from falling debris of UA-intercepted Iskander-K missiles (@don_partizan via Colonelcassad 12:41).
Diplomatic & Political:
Ceasefire Stance / Negotiations: RU UN Rep Nebenzya stated ceasefire currently "unrealistic." Peskov reiterated energy strike moratorium expired. UPDATE (Bloomberg via TASS 13:18, RBC-Ukraina 13:23): US reportedly presented proposals to allies in Paris for UA-RU peace deal, including easing sanctions on Russia in return for lasting ceasefire. Proposal allegedly freezes conflict lines, leaves occupied territories under Moscow control, and does not address UA NATO aspirations. Previous reports: US Senator Vance cited "progress" (Apr 18). Paris talks reported (US/FR/UK/DE/UA), US pushing ceasefire, RU demands pre-conditions (WarGonzo 12:31). Alleged US Apr 19 deadline for RU response on unconditional ceasefire (General SVR 12:32). UA Presidential Advisor dismissed Peskov's relevance on energy strikes, cited Mar 25 US-UA agreement date (RBC-Ukraina 12:29).
Sanctions (Ukraine): President Zelenskyy signed decree imposing sanctions on 20 Russian individuals (cultural/sports figures), 57 Russian enterprises (incl. defense-related), 3 Chinese enterprises (Beijing Aviation And Aerospace Xianghui Technology Co. Ltd, Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber Xining Co. Ltd, Rui Jin Machinery Co. Ltd), and 39 associated executives/businessmen (RBC-Ukraina 13:11). MFA tasked to discuss similar sanctions with EU/US.
Financial Aid: Japan to provide Ukraine $3 billion loan via G7 ERA program, to be repaid using profits from frozen Russian assets (STERNENKO 12:39, Operatyvnyi ZSU 12:59).
Russian Internal Issues:
Manpower/Morale: Alleged testimony from RU POW (810th Naval Inf Bde) claims severe commander abuse. NEW: Video surfaces of RU soldier ("Vorchun") complaining about being sent to frontlines without weapons, told to take from KIAs, accusing commanders of incompetence/collusion (Butusov Plus 13:07). NEW: Analysis suggests at least 218 RU conscripts killed (ASTRA 12:40). Ongoing corruption probes.
Contrasting RU Claims: RU claims advances near Mala Tokmachka (entering settlement) and Mali Shcherbaky. Requires verification.
UA GS Report (16:00 Apr 18):
Orikhiv: 1 RU attack repelled near Shcherbaky. RU air strikes near Novodanylivka, Mahdalynivka, Stepnohirsk.
Huliaipole: No ground clashes reported. RU air strikes (unguided rockets) on Huliaipole, Malynivka.
Other RU Claims: Strike near Novodanylivka, strikes on Bilenke, Prymorske, Stepnohirsk.
B. Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk
RU Claims: Claims of advances persist (Bohatyr, Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Shevchenko, etc.). RU MoD (Vostok Group) claims continued advance. RU sources claim destruction of UA BMP-2/personnel near Otradne. NEW RU IO: Video allegedly shows civilian evacuation from Kostyantynopil, claiming residents awaited RU arrival and UA forces fired on evacuees despite RU EW cover (Kotsnews 13:02).
UA GS Report (16:00 Apr 18):5 RU attacks repelled. Ongoing attempts near Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, and towards Otradne (1 clash ongoing). RU air strikes on Zelene Pole, Myrne, Novopil.
C. Toretsk Axis (Konstantinovskoe Napravlenie)
RU Claimed Advance: RU MoD claims capture of Valentynivka and Kalynove. RU sources claim advances towards Highway N-20 and Sukha Balka. Valentynivka confirmed captured by RU sources (Colonelcassad 12:11).
Other RU Claims: Strike near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), strikes near Kalynove.
D. Pokrovsk Axis
Intensity: Remains the highest intensity axis.
UA GS Report (16:00 Apr 18):24 RU attacks since start of day. Attacks repelled near Tarasivka, Novotoretske, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Bohdanivka, Andriivka, and towards Oleksandropol, Myrolyubivka. 2 clashes ongoing. UA forces holding the line.
NEW UA Action: UA 93rd Mech Bde (Black Ravens unit) reported participating in repelling RU mechanized assault (yesterday), hitting 3 RU vehicles, personnel, UAZ "Bukhanka" with donated drones (Sternenko 13:21).
Previous RU Claims: Liberation of Yelizavetovka/Preobrazhenka (unverified). Storming Matrona Moskovskaya mine area, expanding control N of Novokalynove. High UA drone activity acknowledged by RU sources.
Previous UA Action: UA 53rd Mech Bde fiber-optic drone strike. UA 108th OShB UGV strike.
E. Kupyansk / Lyman / Oskil Axis
UA Defensive Success: UA 3rd Assault Brigade reports repelling RU mechanized attack (2 BMPs, buggy, infantry) on Kharkiv/Luhansk border, inflicting 8 RU KIA, 7 WIA, destroying/damaging vehicles (Tsaplienko 12:20, Butusov Plus 12:27).
Confirmed Action: UA drone destroyed RU tank near Kreminna (Apr 16/17).
F. Kursk/Sumy Border Zone
Ground Combat & Claims: Intensity remains high.
UA GS Report (16:00 Apr 18):6 RU attacks repelled, 1 ongoing. RU forces conducted 12 air strikes (20 KABs) and 134 artillery/mortar attacks on UA positions and settlements (Prokhody, Prohres, Studenok, Sosnivka, Zarutske, Popivka, Shalyhyne, Vasylivske, Uhroidy, Turya, Krasnopillya, Petrushivka, Mala Rybytsia).
RU Claims: Ongoing "neutralisation" ops. Strikes claimed near Hornal, Oleshnia (Kursk) & Sumy Oblast settlements. >225 UA losses claimed in 24h. Claimed capture of Gornalsky Monastery (Kursk) (Voenkor Kotenok 12:56). Akhmat unit claims repelled UA forces (Belgorod). Drone strike claimed (Belgorod).
Prisoners of War / Body Exchange:
RU MoD claims 64 UA POWs captured by "Sever" Group (past week).
UA Coordination Staff met families of 71st Jaeger Brigade POWs/MIAs.
Exchange of Fallen: Ukraine confirms return of 909 fallen defenders. Russia confirms receiving 41 bodies (multiple RU sources). DeepStateUA notes high UA number possibly due to RU advances over areas with unrecovered bodies. NEW: RU sources reiterate numbers (Alex Parker Returns 13:10, WarGonzo 13:16).
Potential POW Exchange: Rumors of large "Easter" exchange (Apr 20).
G. Kherson Axis (Left Bank)
UA Strike Claim: UA Navy forces claim strike on RU dugout/HMG on Kherson islands (Operatyvnyi ZSU 12:29).
UA GS Report (16:00 Apr 18):
Prydniprovsky: No ground clashes reported. RU air strike on Mykolaivka.
Planned National Resistance Centers in each oblast. Student Military Training: 75-80k university students to undergo basic military training (130m UAH budget for 2025).
Persistent reliance on volunteer support (thermal fabric, Mavic drones, vehicles).
NEW FPV Control Technology: RU sources promote "Orbita" system for remote FPV control (e.g., Moscow to Chasiv Yar) via mouse, potentially reducing training/risk. Reportedly tested by "Espanola" commander. Discussion on applications/challenges (Dva Maiora 12:51).
Russian Manpower/Internal Issues: Recruitment targeting indebted students. Legal aid for draft evaders. Corruption probes ongoing. Severe commander abuse alleged (810th Naval Inf Bde). Criminal cases against personnel. NEW: Min. 218 RU conscripts likely killed (ASTRA 12:40). NEW: Video evidence of RU soldier complaining about lack of weapons/poor leadership (Butusov Plus 13:07).
IV. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Civilian Casualties:
Sumy (Apr 18): 1 Civilian KIA (RU strike on workshop).
Kharkiv (Apr 18): UPDATED - 1 KIA, 103 WIA (incl. 8 children) from RU ballistic missile strike. RU sources blame UA AD intercepts.
Near Belgorod, RU (Apr 18): 1 Civilian WIA claimed from UA drone attack on car.
Lomakovka, Bryansk Oblast, RU (Apr 18): 1 Civilian WIA claimed from repeated UA attacks.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 18): RU sources claim civilian property damage from falling debris of intercepted missiles.
Repatriation of Fallen Soldiers: Ukraine confirms return of 909 fallen defenders. Exchange reported by both sides, RU sources consistently claim receiving 41 bodies in return. High disparity noted.
Prisoners of War / Detainees:
Focus on Azov POWs facing RU "criminal cases".
UA Coordination Staff meeting with families of 71st Jaeger Brigade POWs/MIAs.
Russian MoD claims 64 UA POWs captured (Kursk/Sumy border) over the week.
Capture/trial of Australian national (Oskar Jenkins) by LNR authorities confirmed.
Rumors of potential large POW exchange (Apr 20).
Report/video of RU POW alleging severe mistreatment by own commander.
Casualty Estimates (Non-Official / Biased): BBC/Mediazona investigation estimates >103,000 RU military deaths. RU MoD claims extremely high weekly UA losses (lacking verification). RU MoD claims >225 UA losses (Kursk, 24h) and >75,000 total (lacking verification). NEW: UA 3rd Assault Brigade claims 8 RU KIA, 7 WIA (Kharkiv/Luhansk border). NEW: Voin DV claims 7 UA KIA (Otradne). NEW: ASTRA claims min. 218 RU conscripts killed.
Draft Evasion/Mobilization Issues: UA authorities disrupted schemes. Incidents involving TCC personnel reported (Kyiv, alleged Kharkiv). NEW RU IO: Claim of TCC checking names against bribe lists (RVvoenkor 13:07).
Illegal Logging Investigation: UA Prosecutor General investigates illegal logging in protected Carpathian forests, allegedly for road construction under a permit issued by state enterprise "Forests of Ukraine" (Prosecutor General 13:00).
