Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Derived from Intelligence up to Fri Apr 18 12:54:52 2025)
I. Major Operational & Strategic Developments
Frontline Intensity: Combat remains focused on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Kupyansk/Lyman, Zaporizhzhia, and Kursk/Sumy border axes. Russian offensive operations continue with claimed incremental, often contested, advances across multiple sectors.
Key Russian Claims (Weekly MoD Report, Apr 12-18 & Specific Daily Claims):
Territorial Gains (Weekly): Claimed liberation of Kalynove & Valentynivka (Donetsk Oblast, Toretsk Axis, Yug Group); Yelizavetovka & Preobrazhenka (Donetsk Oblast, Pokrovsk Axis, Tsentr Group). These claims, particularly Yelizavetovka & Preobrazhenka, require independent verification and may conflict with other assessments.
Territorial Gains (Daily/Specific): Claimed capture of Valentynivka (Toretsk Axis, confirmed by Colonelcassad 12:11); claimed advances near Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Lysovka (Kupyansk/Lyman Axis, Z Komitet map update 12:12); approx. 1km advance south of Lozova near Borova (Kharkiv/Lyman Axis, Slivochniy Kapriz claim 12:13); advance in eastern Novoye (Oskil/Lyman Axis, Colonelcassad claim 12:21); claimed advances near Makeevka, Novomykhailivka, Novoye (Lyman axis, Z Komitet map update 12:35); advances near Shevchenko, west of Rozlyv (Novopavlivsk Axis); storming the Matrona Moskovskaya mine area, expanding control north of Novokalynove (Pokrovsk Axis); entering Mala Tokmachka (Zaporizhzhia Axis).
Strikes (Weekly Claim): Claimed 9 group strikes (precision weapons/UAVs) targeting Ukrainian defence industry, airfield infrastructure, depots (weapons, ammo, missiles, UAVs, USVs), UAV training centers, and personnel concentrations.
Strikes (Specific Claim Apr 18 Morning / Overnight): Claimed specific group strike targeting key UAV production facilities and military airfield infrastructure. NEW/Detailed RU Claim (@don_partizan via Colonelcassad 12:41): Series of RU strikes overnight (Apr 17-18) targeting:
Voznesensk Airfield (Mykolaiv Obl.): Iskander-M hit radar/landing systems (RSP-10M), disrupted night ops, UAV base function impacted.
Kharkiv (Effekt LLC site): Iskander-K hit logistics hub (comms modules, tactical equip packaging, power systems) supporting UAV/comms units. Claimed 3 UA KIA, 4 WIA. Communications warehouse for Kupyansk axis partially disabled.
Mykolaiv (Altoris LLC site): Strike destroyed warehouse supporting USVs (nav blocks, batteries, waterproofing, onboard equip). >500 sq m fire. Claimed logistics center for naval sabotage groups.
Sumy (Former bread factory): UAV strikes hit logistics base (power modules, charging stations, signal processing, storage for equipment/FPVs) supporting border drone units. Main building destroyed.
Kursk/Sumy Border Operations (Daily Claim Apr 18): RU MoD claims ongoing "neutralisation" of UA formations in Kursk Oblast. Claimed strikes inflicting losses on multiple UA brigades near Hornal & Oleshnia (Kursk Obl.) and UA positions in Sumy Obl. near Belovody, Vodolagi, Krovnoye, Mogritsa, Sadki, Yunakovka, Yablonovka. Claimed >225 UA losses in the area in 24h.
Personnel/Equipment Losses (Claimed, Weekly, Very High Figures): >1900 UA losses (Sever Group, Kursk/Belgorod/Kharkiv); >1730 UA losses (Zapad Group, Kupyansk); >2170 UA losses (Yug Group, Toretsk); >2680 UA losses (Tsentr Group, Pokrovsk); >1020 UA losses (Vostok Group, S. Donetsk); >540 UA losses (Dnepr Group, Kherson). Claimed destruction of numerous tanks, AFVs, artillery (incl. Western SPGs), MLRS (incl. HIMARS), EW stations, radars, depots.
Personnel/Equipment Losses (Claimed, Cumulative, Kursk Axis): RU MoD released figures claiming total UA losses in Kursk direction since start of hostilities exceed 75,000 troops, 410 tanks, 334 IFVs, 307 APCs, 2,278 other AFVs, 57 MLRS (incl. 15 HIMARS), etc. These cumulative figures are exceptionally high and lack independent verification.NEW Conscript Losses Claim: ASTRA analysis (via UA project "Khochu Naiti") suggests at least 218 RU conscripts likely killed in action, mostly in Kursk/Belgorod border areas (ASTRA 12:40).
Air Defence Claims (Weekly): Claimed downing 1 Ukrainian F-16 aircraft, 45 JDAM bombs, 29 HIMARS projectiles, and 1,618 UAVs. The F-16 claim requires independent verification.
Counter-Energy Strikes Claim: RU MoD claims UA conducted 4 attacks on Russian energy facilities in the past 24 hours (Apr 18). NEW Specific Claims (RVvoenkor 12:27, AV Bogomaz 12:30): Alleged damage to power lines (Belgorod, Kursk), transformer station (Bryansk - Troebortnoye, Sevsky district), gas pipeline (Voronezh - Podgornoye, Rossoshansky district) due to UA attacks/drone strikes.
Civilian Damage Blamed on UA AD: RU sources claim civilian damage/casualties in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 18) resulted from Ukrainian AD intercepting Russian missiles over urban areas (@don_partizan via Colonelcassad 12:41).
Ukrainian Structural Reform & Preparedness:
General Staff confirms ongoing reorganization of military command system, including manning, equipping, and training of newly formed Army Corps. Leadership briefing focused on progress, training, logistics (Maj Gen Hnatov).
NEW Leadership Change: Lt. Col. Bohdan "Puhach" Hrishenkov appointed new commander of the 12th Special Purpose Brigade "Azov" NGU. Hrishenkov has ~10 years service in Azov, rose from private, commanded units, participated in Mariupol/Azovstal defense, was wounded in Olenivka explosion, returned after POW exchange. He replaces Denys Prokopenko (Operatyvnyi ZSU 11:56).
National Resistance Centers: Office of the President announces plans to establish centers in each oblast to prepare the civilian population for national resistance actions in case of invasion. Confirmed again by OperatyvnoZSU (12:19). RU commentary notes this plan (Dnevnik Desantnika 12:43).
NEW Student Military Training: Minister of Education Lisovyi states 75-80,000 university students will undergo basic military training; 130 million UAH allocated for 2025 program (Operatyvnyi ZSU 12:47).
Personnel Change (MOD): Ivan Havryliuk dismissed from the post of First Deputy Minister of Defence by the Cabinet of Ministers.
Mobilization Extended: Martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine formally extended by presidential decree until August 6, 2025.
SBU/National Police report liquidation of draft evasion schemes in Kyiv and Cherkasy ($10k-$15k bribes). Suspects detained.
NEW Drone Policing: National Police in Zaporizhzhia to begin using drones for patrolling park zones (Khortytsia, Dubovyi Hai, Victory Park, Voznesenivskyi Park) to ensure public order and detect suspicious items (Zaporizhzhia OVA 11:58). Demonstrates dual-use surveillance capability.
NEW Mobilization Incident (Kyiv): Kyiv City TCC confirms altercation between TCC officer and civilian, claims civilian aggression/pepper spray use, civilian fled and is sought by police. TCC alleges viral video is incomplete/provocative (Operatyvnyi ZSU 12:39). RU source posts video alleging TCC forced mobilization attempt in Kharkiv thwarted by wife (Colonelcassad 12:41).
Air & Missile Threats:
NEW Ballistic Threat (East): Alert issued for threat of ballistic weapon use from the East (UA AF 12:24). Air alert declared across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaporizhzhia OVA 12:25).
NEW KAB Threat (Sumy): Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of Russian guided aerial bombs (KABs) by tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast (~12:37 UTC).
KAB Threat (Kharkiv): Ukrainian Air Force reported launches of Russian guided aerial bombs (KABs) by tactical aviation towards eastern Kharkiv Oblast (~12:12 UTC).
Previous Alert Ended: Alert due to MiG-31K takeoff ended approx. 11:30 UTC.
Persistent high levels of Russian air and missile activity observed. Tactical aviation remains active (SE), posing air-launched weapon threat. Ongoing Russian reconnaissance UAV activity reported.
NEW RU Strike Tactic Analysis: Aviation expert Valeriy Romanenko details RU tactic using Iskander ballistic missiles: first launch uses fuze/penetrating/fragmentation warhead, followed quickly by a cluster munition variant targeting responders and exposed personnel (RBC-Ukraina 12:37).
Major Strikes & Consequences:
Sumy City (Apr 18): 1 civilian KIA reported from RU strike on confectionery workshop. RU sources claim military logistics/drone hub (Colonelcassad 12:41).
Kharkiv City (Apr 18): Updated Toll - 1 civilian KIA, 95 WIA (incl. 8 children) from RU ballistic missile strike (reported Iskander-K cluster type). Significant damage to residential buildings, 4 educational institutions, 25 vehicles. RU sources claim military target (logistics hub at Effekt LLC site), blame UA AD for civilian damage (Colonelcassad 12:41).
Kursk City, Russia (Apr 18, morning): Explosion reported coinciding with Ukrainian ballistic missile threat warnings. Requires verification.
Lomakovka, Bryansk Oblast, Russia (Apr 18): RU Gov claims repeated UA mortar/drone attacks destroyed house, wounded 1 civilian.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 18): RU sources claim damage to civilian infrastructure (fitness center, hotel, office block, house) resulted from falling debris of UA-intercepted Iskander-K missiles (@don_partizan via Colonelcassad 12:41).
Diplomatic & Political:
Ceasefire Stance / Negotiations: Russian UN Rep Nebenzya stated ceasefire currently "unrealistic." Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov reiterated month-long energy strike moratorium expired. UPDATE: US Senator JD Vance reported unspecified "progress" in Ukrainian settlement talks in the last 24h, expressed optimism (TASS, RVvoenkor 11:57, RBC-Ukraina 11:56). WarGonzo (12:31) reports Paris talks (US/FR/UK/DE/UA), claims US pushing for ceasefire, RU demands pre-conditions (neutrality/territory). General SVR (12:32) claims US set Apr 19 deadline for RU response on unconditional ceasefire. NEW UA Response to RU Energy Strike Narrative: Presidential Advisor Dmytro Lytvyn dismisses Peskov's relevance, states UA adheres to Mar 25 US-UA agreement date, reiterates Zelenskyy's warning about potential RU strikes around Easter (RBC-Ukraina 12:29).
Sanctions: President Zelenskyy signed decree imposing sanctions on 20 Russian individuals (cultural/sports figures incl. Kuklachev, Kuchera, Pankratov-Cherny, Tsiskaridze, Rozenbaum, Konchalovsky, Shaman/Dronov), 57 Russian enterprises (incl. defense-related: 103 Arsenal Saransk, Tula Rubber Plant), 3 Chinese enterprises (incl. Rui Jin Machinery Co. Ltd), and 39 associated executives/businessmen.
NEW Financial Aid: Japan to provide Ukraine $3 billion loan, to be repaid using profits from frozen Russian assets (STERNENKO 12:39).
Russian Internal Issues:
Manpower/Morale: Reports of pressure on universities to recruit students; legal aid for draft evaders. Alleged testimony from RU POW (810th Naval Inf Bde, V. Teobald b.2006) claims severe commander abuse ("Volkodav"), including tying soldiers to trees as bait for UA drones (Butusov Plus). NEW Crime: RU serviceman Alexander Titov detained in Yakutia for alleged sexual assault against minor former stepdaughter (ASTRA 12:03).
Corruption: High-profile investigations continue (Kursk border fortifications, Dep Def Min Ivanov, MoD Research Institute Head Protasov).
Logistical Challenges: Ongoing volunteer crowdfunding (fabric for sewing workshop supplying 108th Regt, vehicles, drones). Workshop claims 2500 items produced for May shipment (Colonelcassad 12:01).
Security: FSB claims detention of Belarusian national allegedly working for SBU, planning bombing in Novorossiysk.
Future Threat Assessment (RU Perspective): RU milblogger channels (Arkangel Spetsnaza, Dva Maiora, Rybar 12:26-12:51) discuss expected post-conflict threats: increased foreign intel activity, destabilization efforts, partisan/terrorist groups, leveraging tech (social media, OSINT, IP-telephony, UAVs for delivery). Calls for new legal frameworks, improved inter-agency coordination, and adaptation of Spetsnaz tactics/training (tech proficiency, UAV piloting, comms) to counter these anticipated threats.
NEW: UA SBU Cyber Dept + others reported repelling RU mechanized assault, destroying/damaging equipment with drones (Sternenko 12:05). Video released.
Contrasting RU Claims: Russian sources claim significant advances near Mala Tokmachka (including entering settlement) and Mali Shcherbaky. These claims require verification.
Russian Strike Claim: Successful strike claimed on UA AFV near Novodanylivka (~5km from LBS), causing secondary detonation. Geolocation provided (Slivochniy Kapriz via kuzbasswar). Coordinates: 47.51805, 35.80749.
Russian Strikes (Other): Claimed precision strike near market in Bilenke and strikes on Prymorske and Stepnohirsk.
B. Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk
Russian Claims: Persist with claims of advances towards Bohatyr. Claimed advances near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Shevchenko, Uspenivka, Troitske, Oleksiivka. RU MoD (Vostok Group) claims continued advance into depth of UA defense.
NEW Russian Combat Claim: RU sources (Voin DV 12:00) claim destruction of UA BMP-2 and 7 personnel during attempted UA counterattack south of Otradne. Claimed engagement by elements of 200 Arty Bde, 140 SAM Bde, 36 MRB, 14 Spetsnaz Bde, 43 Spetsnaz Coy using artillery, FPV drones, and aerial drops. Video released.
Ground Combat: Clashes continued near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Pryvilne (Apr 17).
C. Toretsk Axis (Konstantinovskoe Napravlenie)
RU Claimed Advance: Russian MoD claims capture of Valentynivka and Kalynove. RU sources claim advances towards Highway N-20 and Sukha Balka (entering southern outskirts) from Valentynivka, asserting physical control over connecting road. RU sources emphasize Valentynivka as key former UA strongpoint (Kotsnews, Poddubny). RU forces claim push towards Konstantinovka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Sloviansk fortified area. NEW Confirmation: Colonelcassad (12:11) confirms RU forces liberated Valentynivka.
Russian Strike Claims: Claimed destruction of UA platoon strongpoint near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) using Krasnopol-M2. Near Kalynove, RU drone/arty elements (10th Tank Regt/20th Div/8th CAA) claim destruction of UA UAV launch site, personnel, equipment, antennas, and a command post (944th SAP).
Ground Combat: Clashes persisted near Toretsk, Ozaryanivka, Druzhba (Apr 17).
D. Pokrovsk Axis
Intensity: Remains the highest intensity axis. UA reported repelling 64 RU assaults (Apr 17).
Russian Offensive Actions: RU MoD claims liberation of Yelizavetovka and Preobrazhenka (requires verification). Reports indicate resumed RU offensive attempts near Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Tarasivka. RU sources claim storming of Matrona Moskovskaya mine area and expanding control north of Novokalynove. RU Supercam UAV claimed directing artillery fire (MoD video).
Drone Warfare:
UA Successes: UA 53rd Mech Bde (SIGNUM unit) reported successful strike using fiber-optic drone destroying RU T-80BVM tank inside hangar. UA 108th OShB "Da Vinci Wolves" demonstrated use of ground robotic complex (UGV) to strike RU dugout.
RU Claims/Challenges: RU sources claim effective FPV use ("KVN"). RU sources highlight high UA drone activity, necessitating crowdfunding for RU Mavic drones.
E. Kupyansk / Lyman / Oskil Axis
UA Defensive Success:NEW: UA 3rd Assault Brigade reports repelling RU mechanized attack (2 BMPs, buggy, infantry) on Kharkiv/Luhansk border. Claimed destruction/damage to vehicles, 8 RU KIA, 7 WIA (Tsaplienko 12:20, Butusov Plus 12:27). Attributed to Anti-Tank, 2nd Assault, and UAV Battalions.
Russian Claims:
NEW: RU sources claim advance near Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Lysovka (Z Komitet map 12:12).
NEW: RU sources claim advance approx. 1 km south of Lozova near Borova (Kharkiv/Lyman axis) following attack with armor/infantry. Coordinates 49.441318, 37.791155 provided (Slivochniy Kapriz 12:13).
NEW: RU sources claim advance in eastern part of Novoye village (Oskil direction) (Colonelcassad 12:21).
NEW: RU sources claim advances near Makeevka, Novomykhailivka, Novoye (Lyman axis, Z Komitet map 12:35).
RU Zapad Group claims taking more advantageous lines.
LMUR strike claimed on UA drone control point in Kondrashovka (Apr 16/17).
Confirmed Action: UA drone strike destroyed RU tank (164th MRB) near Kreminna (Apr 16/17).
F. Kursk/Sumy Border Zone
Ground Combat & Claims: Intensity remains high. Clashes ongoing near Hornal / Sviato-Nikolayevsky Belogorsky Monastery (Kursk). RU MoD claims ongoing operations to "neutralise" UA formations in Kursk Oblast; claims strikes near Hornal & Oleshnia (Kursk) and multiple settlements in Sumy Oblast. Claims >225 UA losses in 24h (Apr 18). RU "Akhmat" unit claims repelling UA forces from tree line (Belgorod Oblast) (Apr 18 video). RU sources claim drone strike on UA infantry near Popovka (Belgorod Oblast) (Apr 18 video).
Prisoners of War / Body Exchange:
RU MoD claims 64 Ukrainian POWs captured by "Sever" Group over past week. Video allegedly shows captured 127th TrO Brigade personnel.
NEW: Meeting held between UA Coordination Staff and families of 71st Jaeger Brigade POWs/MIAs discussing exchange processes, RU tactics, body recovery challenges (KoordShtab 12:00).
Exchange of Fallen: Ukraine confirms return of 909 fallen defenders. Bodies recovered from multiple fronts (Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv) and RU morgues, facilitated by ICRC (DeepStateUA 12:19). RU sources report exchange, state Russia received 41 bodies (Mobilization 12:00, Kotsnews, Voenkor Kotenok, Colonelcassad, Poddubny, RVvoenkor). DeepStateUA notes high UA number possibly due to RU advances over areas with unrecovered bodies.
Potential POW Exchange: RU sources report rumor of large "Easter" POW exchange planned for Apr 20 (Belarus, UAE mediation). RU claims list of 400 sent, awaiting UA response; alleged delay from planned Apr 18 date attributed to Kyiv (Dnevnik Desantnika, Tsaplienko).
G. Kherson Axis (Left Bank)
UA Strike Claim:NEW: UA Navy forces claim strike on RU positions on Kherson islands destroyed dugout with personnel and a KORD 12.7mm HMG (Operatyvnyi ZSU 12:29). Video released.
Ongoing reorganization and formation/equipping/training of new Army Corps.
NEW Leadership: Lt. Col. Bohdan Hrishenkov ("Pugach") appointed commander of 12th Special Purpose Brigade "Azov" NGU.
Planned establishment of National Resistance Centers in each oblast for civilian training. NEW: 75-80k university students to undergo basic military training (130m UAH budget for 2025).
Successful use of donated FPV drones confirmed (Zaporizhzhia). FPV drone induced RU surrender reported.
NEW Claim (Sternenko): Southern Defense Forces downed 3 RU recon UAVs (2 Zala, 1 Orlan) using FPV interceptors over Dnipro.
NEW Capability: 53rd Mech Bde demonstrated fiber-optic guided drone precision strike on concealed tank.
NEW Capability: 108th OSHB demonstrated ground robotic complex (UGV) for assaulting fortified positions.
NEW: SBU Cyber Dept demonstrated effective drone use in repelling RU mechanized assault (Zaporizhzhia).
NEW: Police in Zaporizhzhia to use surveillance drones for public safety patrols.
NEW: UA Navy claim strike on RU dugout/HMG on Kherson islands.
NEW Crowdfunding: Unit of NGU "Rubizh" Brigade seeks 450k UAH for equipment/vehicle repair (RBC-Ukraina 12:47).
Russian Capabilities & Logistics:
Claimed Supercam UAV use for artillery spotting (Pokrovsk axis). Video released (MoD).
Claimed coordinated drone/arty/air strikes in Kursk/Sumy border area.
Claimed successful combined arms engagement (Arty, FPV, drops) south of Otradne involving multiple units.
Persistent reliance on volunteer support for basic equipment (thermal fabric, Mavic drones) and vehicles. Sewing workshop crowdfunding for fabric, reports preparing 30 vehicles, 50+ drones, 2500+ clothing items for May shipment (Colonelcassad 12:01).
NEW FPV Control Technology: RU sources promote "Orbita" system allowing remote FPV control (e.g., from Moscow City targeting Chasiv Yar) using mouse interface, potentially reducing training time and operator risk. System reportedly tested by "Espanola" commander. Discussion on potential applications (e.g., vs USVs) and challenges (comms dependence) (Dva Maiora 12:51).
Russian Manpower/Internal Issues: Reports of targeting students with debt for recruitment. Legal aid project "Call to Conscience" assisting draft evaders. Ongoing high-level MoD corruption investigations. Alleged testimony of severe commander abuse within 810th Naval Inf Bde. Criminal cases against personnel (e.g., sexual assault in Yakutia). NEW: Analysis suggests at least 218 RU conscripts killed (ASTRA 12:40).
IV. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Civilian Casualties:
Sumy (Apr 18): 1 Civilian KIA claimed from RU strike on confectionery workshop.
Kharkiv (Apr 18): 1 KIA, 95 WIA (updated, incl. 8 children) from RU ballistic missile strike. RU sources blame UA AD intercepts for damage.
Lomakovka, Bryansk Oblast, RU (Apr 18): 1 Civilian WIA claimed from repeated UA attacks.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 18): RU sources claim civilian property damage from falling debris of intercepted missiles.
Repatriation of Fallen Soldiers: Ukraine confirms return of 909 fallen defenders. Exchange reported by both sides, RU sources consistently claim receiving 41 bodies in return. High disparity noted, potentially due to RU advances over areas with unrecovered UA bodies.
Prisoners of War / Detainees:
Focus on Azov POWs facing RU "criminal cases".
NEW: UA Coordination Staff meeting with families of 71st Jaeger Brigade POWs/MIAs discussing challenges.
Russian MoD claims 64 UA POWs captured by "Sever" Group (Kursk/Sumy border) over the week.
Capture and planned trial of Australian national (Oskar Jenkins, UA 66th Mech Bde) by LNR authorities confirmed.
Potential Large Exchange: Rumors circulate of a large POW exchange planned for Apr 20.
Alleged Abuse: Report/video of RU POW (810th Naval Inf Bde) alleging severe mistreatment and abuse by own commander (Butusov Plus).
Casualty Estimates (Non-Official / Biased): BBC/Mediazona investigation estimates >103,000 RU military deaths since invasion start. Russian MoD continues to claim extremely high weekly UA personnel losses across axes (e.g., >10,000 total claimed Apr 12-18), lacking independent verification. RU MoD claims >225 UA losses in Kursk direction in 24h and >75,000 total since start of hostilities, lacking verification. NEW: UA 3rd Assault Brigade claims 8 RU KIA, 7 WIA in repelled attack (Kharkiv/Luhansk border). NEW: Voin DV claims 7 UA KIA in repelled counterattack near Otradne (Novopavlivsk). NEW: ASTRA analysis claims min. 218 RU conscripts likely killed.
Draft Evasion/Mobilization Issues: Ukrainian authorities disrupted schemes in Kyiv/Cherkasy. Incidents involving TCC personnel reported in Kyiv (official comment) and allegedly Kharkiv (RU source video).
