Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Derived from Intelligence up to Fri Apr 18 12:24:52 2025)
I. Major Operational & Strategic Developments
Frontline Intensity: Combat remains focused on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Kupyansk/Lyman, Zaporizhzhia, and Kursk/Sumy border axes. Russian offensive operations continue with claimed incremental, often contested, advances across multiple sectors.
Key Russian Claims (Weekly MoD Report, Apr 12-18 & Specific Daily Claims):
Territorial Gains (Weekly): Claimed liberation of Kalynove & Valentynivka (Donetsk Oblast, Toretsk Axis, Yug Group); Yelizavetovka & Preobrazhenka (Donetsk Oblast, Pokrovsk Axis, Tsentr Group). These claims, particularly Yelizavetovka & Preobrazhenka, require independent verification and may conflict with other assessments.
Territorial Gains (Daily/Specific): Claimed advances near Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Lysovka (Kupyansk/Lyman Axis); approx. 1km advance south of Lozova near Borova (Kharkiv/Lyman Axis); advance in eastern Novoye (Oskil/Lyman Axis); capture of Valentynivka confirmed by multiple RU sources, claimed as former UA strongpoint facilitating further push towards Sukha Balka/N-20 highway (Toretsk Axis); advances near Shevchenko, west of Rozlyv (Novopavlivsk Axis); storming the Matrona Moskovskaya mine area, expanding control north of Novokalynove (Pokrovsk Axis); entering Mala Tokmachka (Zaporizhzhia Axis).
Strikes (Weekly Claim): Claimed 9 group strikes (precision weapons/UAVs) targeting Ukrainian defence industry, airfield infrastructure, depots (weapons, ammo, missiles, UAVs, USVs), UAV training centers, and personnel concentrations.
Strikes (Specific Claim Apr 18 Morning): Claimed specific group strike targeting key UAV production facilities and military airfield infrastructure.
Kursk/Sumy Border Operations (Daily Claim Apr 18): Claim ongoing "neutralisation" of UA formations in Kursk Oblast. Claimed strikes inflicting losses on multiple UA brigades near Hornal & Oleshnia (Kursk Obl.) and UA positions in Sumy Obl. near Belovody, Vodolagi, Krovnoye, Mogritsa, Sadki, Yunakovka, Yablonovka. Claimed >225 UA losses in the area in 24h.
Personnel/Equipment Losses (Claimed, Weekly, Very High Figures): >1900 UA losses (Sever Group, Kursk/Belgorod/Kharkiv); >1730 UA losses (Zapad Group, Kupyansk); >2170 UA losses (Yug Group, Toretsk); >2680 UA losses (Tsentr Group, Pokrovsk); >1020 UA losses (Vostok Group, S. Donetsk); >540 UA losses (Dnepr Group, Kherson). Claimed destruction of numerous tanks, AFVs, artillery (incl. Western SPGs), MLRS (incl. HIMARS), EW stations, radars, depots.
Personnel/Equipment Losses (Claimed, Cumulative, Kursk Axis): RU MoD released figures claiming total UA losses in Kursk direction since start of hostilities exceed 75,000 troops, 410 tanks, 334 IFVs, 307 APCs, 2,278 other AFVs, 57 MLRS (incl. 15 HIMARS), etc. These cumulative figures are exceptionally high and lack independent verification.
Air Defence Claims (Weekly): Claimed downing 1 Ukrainian F-16 aircraft, 45 JDAM bombs, 29 HIMARS projectiles, and 1,618 UAVs. The F-16 claim requires independent verification.
Counter-Energy Strikes Claim: RU MoD claims UA conducted 4 attacks on Russian energy facilities in the past 24 hours (Apr 18).
Ukrainian Structural Reform & Preparedness:
General Staff confirms ongoing reorganization of military command system, including manning, equipping, and training of newly formed Army Corps. Leadership briefing focused on progress, training, logistics (Maj Gen Hnatov).
NEW Leadership Change: Lt. Col. Bohdan "Puhach" Hrishenkov appointed new commander of the 12th Special Purpose Brigade "Azov" NGU. Hrishenkov has ~10 years service in Azov, rose from private, commanded units, participated in Mariupol/Azovstal defense, was wounded in Olenivka explosion, returned after POW exchange. He replaces Denys Prokopenko.
National Resistance Centers: Office of the President announces plans to establish centers in each oblast to prepare the civilian population for national resistance actions in case of invasion. Confirmed again by OperatyvnoZSU.
Personnel Change (MOD): Ivan Havryliuk dismissed from the post of First Deputy Minister of Defence by the Cabinet of Ministers.
Mobilization Extended: Martial law and general mobilization in Ukraine formally extended by presidential decree until August 6, 2025.
Ukrainian Internal Security:
SBU/National Police report liquidation of draft evasion schemes in Kyiv and Cherkasy ($10k-$15k bribes). Suspects detained.
NEW Drone Policing: National Police in Zaporizhzhia to begin using drones for patrolling park zones (Khortytsia, Dubovyi Hai, Victory Park, Voznesenivskyi Park) to ensure public order and detect suspicious items. Demonstrates dual-use surveillance capability.
Air & Missile Threats:
Nationwide Alert (Ended): Previous alert due to MiG-31K takeoff has ended (approx. 11:30 UTC).
NEW KAB Threat (Kharkiv): Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of Russian guided aerial bombs (KABs) by tactical aviation towards eastern Kharkiv Oblast (~12:12 UTC).
Persistent high levels of Russian air and missile activity observed. Tactical aviation remains active (SE), posing air-launched weapon threat. Ongoing Russian reconnaissance UAV activity reported.
Major Strikes & Consequences:
Sumy City (Apr 18): 1 civilian KIA reported from RU strike on confectionery workshop. RU sources claim military logistics/drone hub.
Kharkiv City (Apr 18): Updated Toll - 1 civilian KIA, 95 WIA (incl. 8 children) from RU ballistic missile strike (reported Iskander-K cluster type). Significant damage to residential buildings, 4 educational institutions, 25 vehicles. RU sources claim military target, blame UA AD.
Kursk City, Russia (Apr 18, morning): Explosion reported coinciding with Ukrainian ballistic missile threat warnings. Requires verification.
Lomakovka, Bryansk Oblast, Russia (Apr 18): RU Gov claims repeated UA mortar/drone attacks destroyed house, wounded 1 civilian.
Diplomatic & Political:
Ceasefire Stance / Negotiations: Russian UN Rep Nebenzya stated ceasefire currently "unrealistic." Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov reiterated month-long energy strike moratorium expired. UPDATE: US Senator JD Vance reported unspecified "progress" in Ukrainian settlement talks in the last 24h, expressed optimism (TASS, RVvoenkor, RBC-Ukraina). Requires independent verification and clarification.
Sanctions: President Zelenskyy signed decree imposing sanctions on 20 Russian individuals (cultural/sports figures incl. Kuklachev, Kuchera, Pankratov-Cherny, Tsiskaridze, Rozenbaum, Konchalovsky, Shaman/Dronov), 57 Russian enterprises (incl. defense-related: 103 Arsenal Saransk, Tula Rubber Plant), 3 Chinese enterprises (incl. Rui Jin Machinery Co. Ltd), and 39 associated executives/businessmen.
Russian Internal Issues:
Manpower/Morale: Reports of pressure on universities to recruit students; legal aid for draft evaders. Alleged testimony from RU POW (810th Naval Inf Bde, V. Teobald b.2006) claims severe commander abuse ("Volkodav"), including tying soldiers to trees as bait for UA drones (Butusov Plus).
Corruption: High-profile investigations continue (Kursk border fortifications, Dep Def Min Ivanov, MoD Research Institute Head Protasov).
Logistical Challenges: Ongoing volunteer crowdfunding (fabric for sewing workshop supplying 108th Regt, vehicles, drones). Workshop claims 2500 items produced for May shipment.
Security: FSB claims detention of Belarusian national allegedly working for SBU, planning bombing in Novorossiysk.
Crime: Reports of RU serviceman detained in Yakutia for alleged sexual assault against minor former stepdaughter.
NEW: UA SBU Cyber Dept + others reported repelling RU mechanized assault, destroying/damaging equipment with drones (Sternenko). Video released.
Contrasting RU Claims: Russian sources claim significant advances near Mala Tokmachka (including entering settlement) and Mali Shcherbaky. These claims require verification.
Russian Strike Claim: Successful strike claimed on UA AFV near Novodanylivka (~5km from LBS), causing secondary detonation. Geolocation provided (Slivochniy Kapriz via kuzbasswar). Coordinates: 47.51805, 35.80749.
Russian Strikes (Other): Claimed precision strike near market in Bilenke and strikes on Prymorske and Stepnohirsk.
B. Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk
Russian Claims: Persist with claims of advances towards Bohatyr. Claimed advances near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Shevchenko, Uspenivka, Troitske, Oleksiivka. RU MoD (Vostok Group) claims continued advance into depth of UA defense.
NEW Russian Combat Claim: RU sources (Voin DV) claim destruction of UA BMP-2 and 7 personnel during attempted UA counterattack south of Otradne. Claimed engagement by elements of 200 Arty Bde, 140 SAM Bde, 36 MRB, 14 Spetsnaz Bde, 43 Spetsnaz Coy using artillery, FPV drones, and aerial drops. Video released.
Ground Combat: Clashes continued near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv, Pryvilne (Apr 17).
C. Toretsk Axis (Konstantinovskoe Napravlenie)
RU Claimed Advance: Russian MoD claims capture of Valentynivka and Kalynove. RU sources claim advances towards Highway N-20 and Sukha Balka (entering southern outskirts) from Valentynivka, asserting physical control over connecting road. RU sources emphasize Valentynivka as key former UA strongpoint (Kotsnews, Poddubny). RU forces claim push towards Konstantinovka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Sloviansk fortified area.
Russian Strike Claims: Claimed destruction of UA platoon strongpoint near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) using Krasnopol-M2. Near Kalynove, RU drone/arty elements (10th Tank Regt/20th Div/8th CAA) claim destruction of UA UAV launch site, personnel, equipment, antennas, and a command post (944th SAP).
Ground Combat: Clashes persisted near Toretsk, Ozaryanivka, Druzhba (Apr 17).
D. Pokrovsk Axis
Intensity: Remains the highest intensity axis. UA reported repelling 64 RU assaults (Apr 17).
Russian Offensive Actions: RU MoD claims liberation of Yelizavetovka and Preobrazhenka (requires verification). Reports indicate resumed RU offensive attempts near Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Tarasivka. RU sources claim storming of Matrona Moskovskaya mine area and expanding control north of Novokalynove. RU Supercam UAV claimed directing artillery fire (MoD video).
Drone Warfare:
UA Successes: UA 53rd Mech Bde (SIGNUM unit) reported successful strike using fiber-optic drone destroying RU T-80BVM tank inside hangar. UA 108th OShB "Da Vinci Wolves" demonstrated use of ground robotic complex (UGV) to strike RU dugout.
RU Claims/Challenges: RU sources claim effective FPV use ("KVN"). RU sources highlight high UA drone activity, necessitating crowdfunding for RU Mavic drones.
E. Kupyansk / Lyman / Oskil Axis
UA Defensive Success:NEW: UA 3rd Assault Brigade reports repelling RU mechanized attack (2 BMPs, buggy, infantry) on Kharkiv/Luhansk border. Claimed destruction/damage to vehicles (Tsaplienko).
Russian Claims:
NEW: RU sources claim advance near Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Lysovka (Z Komitet map).
NEW: RU sources claim advance approx. 1 km south of Lozova near Borova (Kharkiv/Lyman axis) following attack with armor/infantry. Coordinates 49.441318, 37.791155 provided (Slivochniy Kapriz).
NEW: RU sources claim advance in eastern part of Novoye village (Oskil direction) (Colonelcassad).
RU Zapad Group claims taking more advantageous lines.
LMUR strike claimed on UA drone control point in Kondrashovka (Apr 16/17).
Confirmed Action: UA drone strike destroyed RU tank (164th MRB) near Kreminna (Apr 16/17).
F. Kursk/Sumy Border Zone
Ground Combat & Claims: Intensity remains high. Clashes ongoing near Hornal / Sviato-Nikolayevsky Belogorsky Monastery (Kursk). RU MoD claims ongoing operations to "neutralise" UA formations in Kursk Oblast; claims strikes near Hornal & Oleshnia (Kursk) and multiple settlements in Sumy Oblast. Claims >225 UA losses in 24h (Apr 18). RU "Akhmat" unit claims repelling UA forces from tree line (Belgorod Oblast) (Apr 18 video). RU sources claim drone strike on UA infantry near Popovka (Belgorod Oblast) (Apr 18 video).
Prisoners of War / Body Exchange:
RU MoD claims 64 Ukrainian POWs captured by "Sever" Group over past week. Video allegedly shows captured 127th TrO Brigade personnel.
NEW: Meeting held between UA Coordination Staff and families of 71st Jaeger Brigade POWs/MIAs discussing exchange processes, RU tactics, body recovery challenges (Apr 18).
Exchange of Fallen: Ukraine confirms return of 909 fallen defenders. Bodies recovered from multiple fronts (Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv) and RU morgues, facilitated by ICRC. RU sources report exchange, state Russia received 41 bodies (Kotsnews, Voenkor Kotenok, Colonelcassad, Poddubny, RVvoenkor, Mobilization). DeepStateUA notes high UA number possibly due to RU advances over areas with unrecovered bodies.
Potential POW Exchange: RU sources report rumor of large "Easter" POW exchange planned for Apr 20 (Belarus, UAE mediation). RU claims list of 400 sent, awaiting UA response; alleged delay from planned Apr 18 date attributed to Kyiv (Dnevnik Desantnika, Tsaplienko).
III. Capabilities & Logistics
Ukrainian Force Structure & Capabilities:
Ongoing reorganization and formation/equipping/training of new Army Corps.
NEW Leadership: Lt. Col. Bohdan Hrishenkov ("Puhach") appointed commander of 12th Special Purpose Brigade "Azov" NGU.
Planned establishment of National Resistance Centers in each oblast for civilian training.
Successful use of donated FPV drones confirmed (Zaporizhzhia). FPV drone induced RU surrender reported.
NEW Claim (Sternenko): Southern Defense Forces downed 3 RU recon UAVs (2 Zala, 1 Orlan) using FPV interceptors over Dnipro.
NEW Capability: 53rd Mech Bde demonstrated fiber-optic guided drone precision strike on concealed tank.
NEW Capability: 108th OSHB demonstrated ground robotic complex (UGV) for assaulting fortified positions.
NEW: SBU Cyber Dept demonstrated effective drone use in repelling RU mechanized assault (Zaporizhzhia).
NEW: Police in Zaporizhzhia to use surveillance drones for public safety patrols.
Russian Capabilities & Logistics:
Claimed Supercam UAV use for artillery spotting (Pokrovsk axis). Video released (MoD).
Claimed coordinated drone/arty/air strikes in Kursk/Sumy border area.
Claimed successful combined arms engagement (Arty, FPV, drops) south of Otradne involving multiple units.
Persistent reliance on volunteer support for basic equipment (thermal fabric, Mavic drones) and vehicles. Sewing workshop crowdfunding for fabric, reports preparing 30 vehicles, 50+ drones, 2500+ clothing items for May shipment (Colonelcassad).
Russian Manpower/Internal Issues: Reports of targeting students with debt for recruitment. Legal aid project "Call to Conscience" assisting draft evaders. Ongoing high-level MoD corruption investigations. Alleged testimony of severe commander abuse within 810th Naval Inf Bde. Criminal cases against personnel (e.g., sexual assault in Yakutia).
IV. Humanitarian & Ethical Considerations
Civilian Casualties:
Sumy (Apr 18): 1 Civilian KIA claimed from RU strike on confectionery workshop.
Lomakovka, Bryansk Oblast, RU (Apr 18): 1 Civilian WIA claimed from repeated UA attacks.
Repatriation of Fallen Soldiers: Ukraine confirms return of 909 fallen defenders. Exchange reported by both sides, RU sources consistently claim receiving 41 bodies in return. High disparity noted.
Prisoners of War / Detainees:
Focus on Azov POWs facing RU "criminal cases".
NEW: UA Coordination Staff meeting with families of 71st Jaeger Brigade POWs/MIAs discussing challenges.
Russian MoD claims 64 UA POWs captured by "Sever" Group (Kursk/Sumy border) over the week.
Capture and planned trial of Australian national (Oskar Jenkins, UA 66th Mech Bde) by LNR authorities confirmed.
Potential Large Exchange: Rumors circulate of a large POW exchange planned for Apr 20.
Alleged Abuse: Report/video of RU POW (810th Naval Inf Bde) alleging severe mistreatment and abuse by own commander (Butusov Plus).
Casualty Estimates (Non-Official / Biased): BBC/Mediazona investigation estimates >103,000 RU military deaths since invasion start. Russian MoD continues to claim extremely high weekly UA personnel losses across axes (e.g., >10,000 total claimed Apr 12-18), lacking independent verification. RU MoD claims >225 UA losses in Kursk direction in 24h and >75,000 total since start of hostilities, lacking verification.
Draft Evasion Schemes: Ukrainian authorities disrupted schemes in Kyiv/Cherkasy.
