Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Apr 12, 2025, 09:53 UTC)
(Derived from intelligence reports, official statements, message feeds, and media analysis dated Apr 9, 2025, 15:59 UTC to Apr 12, 2025, 09:53 UTC)
I. Strategic & Operational Overview
Overall Intensity: High intensity persists across the front. 149 combat clashes reported on Apr 11 (UGS, Apr 12). Russian forces maintain extensive air, drone, and artillery attacks. The most intense ground combat is reported on the Pokrovsk (40 attacks repelled Apr 11), Toretsk (14 attacks repelled Apr 11), Lyman (25 attacks repelled Apr 11), and Kursk Border (21 attacks repelled Apr 11) axes.
Russian Air/Artillery/Drone Pressure (Apr 11):
Russia conducted 101 air strikes (launching 183 KABs), utilized 2789 kamikaze drones, and executed over 6400 shelling attacks (215 from MLRS) against Ukrainian positions and populated areas (UGS, Apr 12).
Kursk Operational Zone (Apr 11): Russian forces conducted 55 air strikes (using 90 KABs) and 156 artillery attacks (29 from MLRS) against Ukrainian positions and settlements (UGS, Apr 12).
Southern Front (Past 24h to Apr 12, 09:07 UTC): RU forces conducted approx. 230 shelling incidents (>950 rounds), 313 kamikaze drone strikes, >230 drone munition drops (~340 rounds), 4 KABs, 54 NARs used (UA South Command).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Past 24h to Apr 12, 04:10 UTC): Russian forces conducted 447 strikes across 12 settlements (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Ukrainian Daily Loss Claims (Apr 11):
General Staff (Apr 12): Claims neutralization of 1240 Russian personnel and destruction of 11 tanks, 7 AFVs, 49 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 78 UAVs, 128 vehicles/fuel tanks. Claims total RU personnel losses since start of 2025 exceed 140,650.
Southern Command (Apr 12): Claims 72 RU KIA over the past 24 hours and destruction of 8 artillery systems, 6 vehicles/AFVs, 1 Supercam UAV, 1 ATGM, 10 motorcycles, 4 comms antennas, 5 UAV control antennas, 1 generator. Also claims 46 RU shelters/dugouts destroyed. Reports neutralization of ~800 RU personnel and >200 vehicles/AFVs on the Southern front over the past 10 days.
OTU Kharkiv (Apr 12): Claims 90 RU personnel (37 KIA) and 112 units of OVT destroyed/damaged on Kharkiv axis (1 tank, 7 arty, 1 ATGM, 1 MLRS, 11 vehicles, 9 spec equip, 82 UAVs). Also claims destruction of 85 RU shelters, 3 ammo depots, 1 POL storage.
Ukrainian Strikes (Apr 11-12):
General Staff (Apr 11): Ukrainian aviation, missile troops, and artillery struck 11 RU concentration areas (personnel/equipment), 2 MLRS, 1 artillery system, and 2 air defense systems (UGS, Apr 12).
Specific Claims (Apr 12): UA MiG-29 conducted AASM Hammer strike on RU company command post (Left Bank Kherson/Zaporizhzhia border). Active FPV/drone strikes claimed by 46th Airmobile, 35th Marines, 4th Mech Bn, Omega NGU ("Hostri Kartuzy" unit on Kurakhove direction), 78th DShV Regiment.
Russian Strikes (Apr 11-12):
Claimed Strategic Strike (Kyiv): Russian sources claim NASA FIRMS data confirms overnight UAV/missile strike successfully hit the Antonov State Enterprise plant (alleged drone production site) and former Research Institute of Electro-Mechanical Devices in Kyiv's Sviatoshynskyi district. Requires verification.
Claimed Tactical Strikes (RU Sources): Destruction of UA M109 SPG (Sumy direction), US-made AN/TPQ-48/50 counter-battery radar near Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk axis, claimed by 14th Spetsnaz Bde). Strikes claimed on Right Bank Kherson (61st Naval Inf Bde), UA tank (68th Recon Bn/20th MSD), UA heavy drone. RU 255th Regt claims destroying NATO BMP/infantry near Pokrovsk.
Dnipro Attack (Apr 10): Confirmed RU missile strike on civilian facility resulted in 1 civilian KIA, 3 injured.
Naval Situation (Black/Azov/Mediterranean Seas): As of Apr 12 morning (03:00 UTC), no Russian naval missile carriers (Kalibr-capable) are deployed in the Black Sea or the Sea of Azov. Three Russian missile carriers (total potential: 26 Kalibr missiles) remain deployed in the Mediterranean Sea (UA Navy via UGS).
Kursk/Sumy Direction Assessment: Ukrainian official source (DPSU) identifies Novyen'ke, Basivka, and Zhuravka (Sumy Oblast) as key directions where Russia uses small assault groups attempting to establish footholds. Russian sources claim pushing UA FPV operators from northern Loknya (Sumy), intensifying pressure towards Yunakivka and the Suja border crossing. Heavy fighting and RU reinforcements (DShB elements) reported near Oleshnia (Kursk) despite losses. RU source claims UA forces fortified the Svyato-Nikolaevsky Belogorsky Monastery in Hornal (Kursk), complicating RU strikes.
Kharkiv Direction Assessment: Ukrainian official source (DPSU) identifies Vovchansk and Lyptsi as key threat directions where Russia continues offensive actions initiated last year.
II. Air Threats & Activity (Updates as of 09:53 UTC)
Current Threats (09:34 UTC): Missile threat remains active for Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (UA AF). Ballistic threat alert ended for central/northern regions including Kyiv (09:32 UTC).
Shahed Drone Attack (Night Apr 11-12):
Official UA Air Force Summary (Apr 12, 07:53 UTC): Russia launched 88 air targets (Shahed-type UAVs and "imitator" drones). Ukrainian Air Force reports 56 Shahed/other attack drones shot down. Attacks affected Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, and Donetsk Oblasts. UA infographic claims 94% drone interception rate (AD/EW) since start of 2025.
Kyiv City/Oblast Impacts: Falling debris caused large warehouse fire (1500 sq.m., liquidated), destroyed a private house, damaged property. Three civilians confirmed injured. Russian sources claim hit on Antonov plant (alleged drone production facility).
Kharkiv Oblast: City attacked. Confirmed Shahed drone impacts on civil enterprise; at least one civilian injured.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: AD reportedly destroyed 17 RU UAVs. Damage from attack/debris confirmed; no casualties reported.
Missile Activity:
RU missile launches decreased significantly in 2025 compared to 2024 (296 vs 639 launched by Apr 10), but UA interception rate also decreased (35.5% vs 46.8%) (UA War Infographics via Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Guided Air Bomb (KAB) / Air Strike Threat (ONGOING):
Heavy use continues: 183 KABs used against Ukraine proper (Apr 11, UGS), 90 KABs in Kursk zone (Apr 11, UGS), 11 KABs on Kharkiv axis (Apr 11, OTU Kharkiv).
RU tactical aviation ACTIVE on the northeastern front.
Video claim (RU): Four FAB-250 UMPK strikes on UA positions in Siversk (Colonelcassad, Apr 12).
Russian Air Defence Activity vs. Ukrainian UAVs (Overnight Apr 11-12):
RU MoD Claim (Apr 12): Claimed 36 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted/destroyed over 5 Russian regions.
Confirmed Impact (Krasnodar Krai): Damage to railway contact lines at Vasyurinskaya station due to falling UAV fragments.
III. Major Frontline Updates (Derived from UGS Apr 12 & Other Sources)
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone (Kursk Operational Zone)
Ukrainian Defense: UA forces repelled 21 RU attacks on Apr 11 (UGS).
Russian Activity/Claims: Heavy RU shelling, 55 air strikes (90 KABs) on Apr 11 (UGS). Fighting ongoing near Hornal and Oleshnia (Kursk); RU conducting storming actions, reinforcing Oleshnia with DShB despite losses (Rybar/WarGonzo/Dnevnik Desantnika). RU claims pushing UA FPV operators from N. Loknya (Sumy), increasing pressure towards Yunakivka/Suja (Colonelcassad). RU claims UA fortifying Hornal monastery. UA DPSU confirms RU attempts to gain foothold near Novyen'ke, Basivka, Zhuravka using small groups.
Kharkiv Axis
UA forces repelled 3 RU attacks near Kamyanka and Zapadne on Apr 11 (UGS). UA DPSU identifies Vovchansk & Lyptsi as key threat directions.
Kupyansk Axis
UA forces repelled 7 RU attacks near Holubivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove on Apr 11 (UGS).
DeepState (Apr 11): Confirmed Russian advance near Kotliarivka.
Lyman Axis (High Intensity)
UA forces repelled 25 RU attacks near Nadiia, Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka on Apr 11 (UGS).
RU Claims/Activity: Fighting ongoing. RU source (Z Komitet) reports RU forces took only 4 houses in N. Torske at high cost; claims UA 63rd Brigade holding firm, denying reports of UA withdrawal.
Siversk Axis
UA forces repelled 6 RU attacks near Ivano-Darivka, Bilohorivka on Apr 11 (UGS).
RU claim four FAB-250 UMPK strikes on UA positions in Siversk city (Colonelcassad, Apr 12).
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar)
UA forces repelled 3 RU attacks near Kurdiumivka, Chasiv Yar, Orikhovo-Vasylivka on Apr 11 (UGS).
RU Claims (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 12): Claim full clearance of Zakhidnyi microdistrict (Chasiv Yar), 800m advance south, hospital territory occupied.
UA forces repelled 14 RU attacks near Dachne, Druzhba, Toretsk on Apr 11 (UGS).
RU Claims (Rybar/WarGonzo/Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 12): Claim significant advance W of Aleksandropol/Panteleimonivka. Claim ongoing assaults, Toretsk mine and Dzerzhynsk city center cleared, repelling small UA counterattacks. Claim advance towards Nelepivka (~4km remain to Konstantinovka). Claim RU pushed UA out of Zabalka microdistrict, shifting LoC towards Shcherbinivka. Claims require verification.
UA forces repelled 40 RU attacks near multiple settlements on Apr 11 (UGS). UGS claims significant RU losses.
DeepState Update (Apr 11): Confirmed Russian advance in Kalynove and near Novooleksandrivka.
RU Claims: Claim capture and clearance of Kalynove. Claim advance near Kalynove & Vozdvyzhenka. Ongoing fighting in Tarasivka with RU advance towards center. RU claim advance N of Novotoretske towards Mirolyubivka (1km) (Slivochniy Kapriz). RU 255th Regt active.
Kurakhove Direction: UA NGU "Omega" drone strike kills RU soldier near cemetery (Butusov Plus).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk / Vremivka Axis
UA forces repelled 6 RU attacks near Rozlyv, Rozdolne on Apr 11 (UGS). UGS (Apr 10) repelled attacks near Kostiantynopil.
RU Claims: Claim significant advances near Rozdolne/Andreevka, approaching Bohatyr and Oleksiivka. Claim advances near Shevchenko, Troitske center reached, SE of Bohdanivka. Claim Kostiantynopil under full RU control for >1 month. Claim capture of Polish-made T-72M1 tank (5th Tank Bde). RU 14th Spetsnaz Bde UAV operators claim destruction of US AN/TPQ-48/50 radar near Bohatyr (Voin DV). Claim targeting UA 425th OShB near Bohatyr.
Huliaipole Axis
UA forces repelled 3 RU attacks near Pryvilne, Novosilka, Burlatske on Apr 11 (UGS).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia)
UA forces repelled 4 RU attacks near Mali Shcherbaky on Apr 11 (UGS). Fighting ongoing near Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Kamenske.
UA Southern Forces Spokesperson (Apr 11): Russia reported to be transferring reserves to the Zaporizhzhia direction. Situation most tense near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson)
UA forces repelled 7 RU attacks on Apr 11, all unsuccessful (UGS). UA MiG-29 AASM Hammer strike claim. RU 61st Naval Infantry UAV strike claim.
IV. Capabilities & Support
Ukrainian:
Air Defense/EW: Urgent need persists. Focus on enhancing AD/EW/mobile fire groups in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Two additional AD systems promised for the region (Zelenskyy). Domestic development ("Bars", FrankenSAM). 94% drone interception rate claimed YTD (AD/EW).
Drones: Active use for strikes/recon. Active FPV use claimed (46th Airmobile, 35th Marines, 4th Mech Bn, Omega NGU, 78th DShV). Continued reliance on volunteer fundraising (e.g., for field beds for 109 Bde, 143 Bde, 1st OShB).
Air Power: Claimed successful MiG-29 strike using AASM Hammer.
Ground Forces: Repelled numerous attacks. Azov Brigade expanding engineer company into Support Battalion (fortifications, mines, engineering, flamethrowers, logistics). UA 425th OShB reportedly engaged near Bohatyr (RU claim).
International Support:UK providing new £350M ($459M) package (radar, mines, drones, M&R). Norway allocating €822 million for UA brigade training/equipping (clarified as reinforcing existing brigades). Netherlands FM Caspar Veldkamp visits Lviv. EU support coalition ("coalition of willing") negotiations reportedly stalled due to differing approaches (Kallas).
Russian:
Drones: Heavy use of Shaheds (88 launched night Apr 11-12), FPVs, Lancets, Orlan/Supercam. Claimed FPV destroyed UA M109 SPG (Sumy). Claimed UAV destroyed US AN/TPQ-48/50 radar (Bohatyr). Claimed strike on Antonov plant (alleged drone production site) in Kyiv.
Air Power: Heavy reliance on KABs (183+ used Apr 11). Tactical aviation active NE front. Claimed FAB strikes (Siversk). Tu-22M3, Tu-160 activity.
Air Defense: Claims interception of 36 UA UAVs; impact confirmed Krasnodar. VKS reportedly active intercepting UA drones/missiles in Bryansk border region (RU Gov source).
Artillery: Heavy use. D-30 howitzers shown firing in Kursk border area.
Ground Forces: Claimed capture of Polish-made T-72M1 tank by 5th Tank Bde (South Donetsk). RU DShB elements reinforcing Oleshnia (Kursk). RU Shtorm V units fighting in Torske (Lyman). RU 255th Regt active near Pokrovsk. RU 810th Naval Inf Bde soldier accused of civilian murders in Belgorod Oblast.
Information Operations: Disseminating narratives of UA atrocities (incl. extreme claims via Kotenok), POW mistreatment, low UA morale, forced mobilization, successful strikes (Antonov), critiques of Western equipment, Chinese volunteer support, French General predicting UA collapse. Highlighting own advances/strikes. Promoting Cosmonautics Day for patriotic messaging. Charging UA soldiers (17th Tank Bde) for alleged shelling in Kursk.
Foreign Fighters: Reports indicate ~100-200 Chinese nationals fighting for Russia as paid volunteers (minimal impact). PLA officers allegedly observing in rear areas (Reuters via US officials/RU sources).
V. Civilian Impact (Focus on Apr 11-12)
Russian Attacks on Ukraine:
Kyiv City/Oblast (Night Apr 11-12): Drone debris caused large warehouse fire (liquidated), destroyed private house; 3 civilians injured. Damage to 9 houses/property in Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Night Apr 11-12): Drone attacks/debris damaged property. No casualties reported.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Past 24 hours): Extensive RU attacks across 12 settlements. Damage reported.
Kherson Oblast (Morning Apr 12): Artillery shelling injured 2 civilians in Stepanivka.
Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): City administration announcing second wave of food aid distribution for 41,000 vulnerable families (incl. military families, disabled, low income) starting Apr 14, indicating ongoing need for humanitarian support.
Kursk Oblast: RU claims UA drone killed 1 civilian near Olgovka. RU SK claims charges against 3 UA soldiers for shelling Olgovka resulting in 4 civilian deaths.
Belgorod Oblast: RU claims UA UAV strike killed 1 civilian near Meshkovoe. Claim UA shelling injured 1 civilian in Mokraya Orlovka.
VI. Diplomacy & Information Operations
US-Ukraine Relations: Latest US proposal for potential resource deal reported to include stricter conditions (aid repayment + interest, pipeline control), negotiations described as "antagonistic" (Reuters via Multiple Sources).
US Political Dynamics: Trump spokesperson states Trump wants war ended; Polish Pres. Duda sees Trump as best chance for peace. US envoy Kellogg denies suggesting partition, clarified proposal for post-ceasefire "resiliency force".
EU Dynamics: Head of EU Diplomacy Kallas reportedly stated negotiations within the "coalition of the willing" supporting Ukraine are currently stalled due to differing approaches.
International Visits: Netherlands FM Caspar Veldkamp visits Lviv. Venezuelan President Maduro scheduled to visit Russia May 9.
RU Narrative Themes: Continued focus on alleged UA atrocities/losses (Kursk POW confessions, Kotenok video), forced mobilization, Western equipment failures, successful RU strikes (Antonov), justification for border actions ("buffer zone"). Use of Cosmonautics Day for patriotic messaging.
UA Internal: Martial Law extension planned (until Aug 6). "Yellow Ribbon" resistance posters reported in occupied Donetsk. Fundraising for basic soldier needs (beds) continues.
RU Internal: Reports of RU serviceman (810th Naval Inf Bde) killing 2 civilians in Stary Oskol (Belgorod Oblast). Pro-Russian rapper fined for graffiti in Sudzha (Kursk).
