Military Situation Update: Ukraine (Apr 12, 2025, 09:23 UTC)
(Derived from intelligence reports, official statements, message feeds, and media analysis dated Apr 9, 2025, 15:59 UTC to Apr 12, 2025, 09:23 UTC)
I. Strategic & Operational Overview
Overall Intensity: High intensity persists across the front. 149 combat clashes reported on Apr 11 (UGS, Apr 12, 05:01 UTC). Russian forces continue extensive air, drone, and artillery attacks.
Russian Air/Artillery/Drone Pressure (Apr 11):
Russia conducted 101 air strikes (launching 183 KABs), utilized 2789 kamikaze drones, and executed over 6400 shelling attacks (215 from MLRS) against Ukrainian positions and populated areas (UGS, Apr 12, 05:01 UTC).
Kursk Operational Zone (Apr 11): Russian forces conducted 55 air strikes (using 90 KABs) and 156 artillery attacks (29 from MLRS) against Ukrainian positions and settlements (UGS, Apr 12).
General Staff (Apr 12): Claims neutralization of 1240 Russian personnel and destruction of 11 tanks, 7 AFVs, 49 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 78 UAVs, 128 vehicles/fuel tanks. Claims total RU personnel losses since start of 2025 exceed 140,650.
Southern Command (Apr 12): Claims ~800 RU personnel and >200 vehicles/AFVs neutralized on the Southern front over the past 10 days. Claims 72 RU KIA over the past 24 hours.
OTU Kharkiv (Apr 12): Claims 90 RU personnel (37 KIA) and 112 units of OVT destroyed/damaged on Kharkiv axis (1 tank, 7 arty, 1 ATGM, 1 MLRS, 11 vehicles, 9 spec equip, 82 UAVs). Also claims destruction of 85 RU shelters, 3 ammo depots, 1 POL storage.
Ukrainian Strikes (Apr 11-12):
General Staff (Apr 11): Ukrainian aviation, missile troops, and artillery struck 11 RU concentration areas (personnel/equipment), 2 MLRS, 1 artillery system, and 2 air defense systems (UGS, Apr 12).
Specific Claims (Apr 12):
UA MiG-29 conducted AASM Hammer strike on RU company command post on Left Bank (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia border) (Butusov Plus).
UA 35th Marine Brigade destroying RU equipment/personnel S of Zaporizhzhia (DeepState).
UA 4th Mech Bn targeting RU troops with drones (Sternenko).
Drone strike on single RU soldier (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
UA NGU "Omega" unit ("Hostri Kartuzy" drones) video shows strike on RU soldier near cemetery on Kurakhove direction (Butusov Plus, 08:57 UTC).
Russian Strikes (Apr 11-12):
Claimed Strategic Strike (Kyiv): Russian sources (Colonelcassad via The_Wrong_Side, 09:10 UTC) claim NASA FIRMS satellite data confirms the overnight UAV/missile strike successfully hit the Antonov State Enterprise plant (former Kyiv "Aviant" plant) and the former Research Institute of Electro-Mechanical Devices building in Kyiv's Sviatoshynskyi district. RU sources allege the Antonov plant was actively involved in drone production for the AFU. Requires verification, but aligns with earlier RU claims of hitting a warehouse/facility in the same district.
Claimed Tactical Strikes (RU Sources):
RU 61st Naval Infantry Bde UAV company destroying UA targets on Right Bank Kherson (Dva Mayora). Note: Contradicts UGS report of no RU offensive actions on Prydniprovsky axis.
Claimed coordinated FPV (68th Recon Bn) / Lancet (20th MSD) strike destroying UA tank (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR). Specific claim identifies destroyed tank as UA, hit by 68th Recon Bn FPV and finished by 20th MSD Lancet UAV.
Claimed FPV strike destroying UA heavy drone (Arkangel Spetsnaza).
Claimed destruction of UA M109 SPG (with anti-drone cage) via FPV drone on Sumy direction (Colonelcassad via voenacher video, 08:33 UTC).
Claimed destruction of US-made AN/TPQ-48/50 counter-battery radar near Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk axis) by UAV operators of RU 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade ("Vostok" Group) (Voin DV, 09:00 UTC).
Naval Situation (Black/Azov/Mediterranean Seas): As of Apr 12 morning (03:00 UTC), no Russian naval missile carriers (Kalibr-capable) are deployed in the Black Sea or the Sea of Azov. Three Russian missile carriers (total potential: 26 Kalibr missiles) remain deployed in the Mediterranean Sea (UA Navy via UGS).
Kursk/Sumy Direction Assessment: Ukrainian sources express concern over potential Russian planning for a large-scale offensive targeting Sumy. RU sources (Colonelcassad, 09:18 UTC) claim RU forces pushed UA FPV operators out of northern Loknya (Sumy Oblast), intensifying pressure towards Yunakivka and the Suja border crossing. RU forces continue reinforcing positions near Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast) despite suffering heavy losses, primarily using DShB elements; heavy fighting and counter-battery exchanges persist (Dnevnik Desantnika, 09:02 UTC).
Diplomatic/Political/Information Operations:
US-Ukraine Relations: Latest US proposal reported to seek priority access to mineral resources, revenue pooling, potential US DFC control over gas transit pipeline, lacking explicit security guarantees. Negotiations described as "antagonistic" (Reuters via Multiple Sources, Apr 12).
US Envoy Clarification: US Special Representative Keith Kellogg denied suggesting a partition of Ukraine, clarifying he proposed a post-ceasefire allied "resiliency force" framework (without US troops) (Multiple Sources, Apr 12).
US Political Stance (Trump): Trump spokesperson stated Trump is "constantly disappointed by both sides" and wants the war ended. Polish President Duda expressed confidence Trump is best chance for peace. French General (via RU source TASS) claims Trump is in weaker negotiating position than Putin. Trump states he passed cognitive tests (Sternenko/Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 12).
US-Russia Contacts: Putin met with US envoy Stephen Witcoff for over 4 hours in St. Petersburg (third meeting); Ukraine was the main topic (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 12). Indirect US-Iran talks reportedly began in Oman, Witcoff present (Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 12); Iranian FM states talks will only cover nuclear dossier (TASS, 08:23 UTC).
RU Alleged Atrocity/Looting Claims (Kursk): RU sources continue disseminating claims of UA targeting civilians/committing atrocities in Kursk Oblast. RU SK claims charges/confessions from 3 captured UA soldiers (17th Tank Bde) regarding shelling Olgovka. RU sources claim UA soldiers selling icons stolen from Hornal monastery. (Requires verification; part of RU narrative).
RU Narrative on UA Mobilization: RU sources release alleged UA POW interviews claiming low morale/corruption/forced mobilization. RU source (Basurin, Apr 12) alleges intensified UA mobilization ("roundups") focused on "pro-Russian" regions (Odesa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) with TCC reinforcements from Kyiv, reiterating Syrskyi's alleged 30k/month need.
Martial Law Extension: Ukrainian Rada reportedly plans to extend martial law and mobilization for another 90 days (until Aug 6, 2025) between Apr 15-18 (Operatsiya Z citing UA MP Zheleznyak, Apr 12 / Alex Parker Returns, 08:51 UTC).
Internal Resistance (Occupied Donetsk): "Yellow Ribbon" movement reports distributing over 100 pro-Ukrainian posters in occupied Donetsk (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 12).
RU Internal Critique/Propaganda: RU milblogger ("Filolog v zasade") critiques RU "strategy of attrition". RU propagandist (Karnaukhov via Butusov Plus) reportedly promotes suicide over capture. French General (via RU source TASS, 08:44 UTC) claims Ukrainian forces will collapse in coming months. Commemorative posts for Cosmonautics Day used for patriotic messaging (AV Bogomaz, Dva Mayora, Starshe Eddy, Basurin).
Foreign Fighters (China): Russian media (via RBC-Ukraine, 08:40 UTC) identified names of at least 51 Chinese nationals contracted through Moscow (Jun 2023 - May 2024) to fight in Ukraine; at least one reported KIA. Confirms earlier SBU reports. Reuters report (via RU sources, 09:10 UTC) cites US officials stating ~100 Chinese volunteers fighting for RU (paid, minimal impact), with PLA officers allegedly observing in rear areas for lessons learned.
International Support & Diplomacy:
Total Ramstein aid announced exceeds €21 Billion.
New UK Package (£350M / $459M): Includes radar equipment, anti-tank mines, hundreds of thousands of drones, funding for M&R. Part of £3.5B ($4.5B) total UK aid for 2025.
Norway: Allocating €822 million for training and equipping a Ukrainian brigade (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 08:31 UTC).
Netherlands: Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp visited Lviv, paid tribute to fallen defenders (RBC-Ukraine, 09:15 UTC).
EU: Head of EU Diplomacy Kaja Kallas reportedly stated negotiations within the "coalition of the willing" supporting Ukraine are currently stalled due to differing approaches among the ~30 participating countries regarding air/sea/land defense strategy (Tsaplienko, 09:17 UTC).
Venezuela: President Maduro scheduled to visit Russia on May 9 (TASS, 09:21 UTC).
Ukrainian Command/Capabilities: Focus on enhancing AD/EW/mobile fire groups in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ongoing work on domestic Patriot alternative ("Bars" missile); received FrankenSAM documentation. Azov Brigade expanding engineer-sapper company into a Support Battalion focusing on fortifications, mines, engineering, flamethrowers, and logistics, actively recruiting. OTU Kharkiv posts highlight infantry role and sapper training (morale/info).
Russian Perspective on Western Aid/NATO Strategy: Pro-Russian analysis highlights alleged performance/maintenance issues with German-supplied equipment (PzH 2000, Leopard 1A5/2A6, IRIS-T, Patriot tractors). Kotsnews (Apr 12) cites Der Spiegel/Berliner Zeitung articles on NATO planning dilemmas (drones vs manned aircraft) and alleged equipment issues.
II. Air Threats & Activity (Updates as of 09:23 UTC)
(ONGOING) Ballistic Missile Threat:
Threat of ballistic missile employment from the northeast persists (UA AF, 08:20 UTC).
Chernihiv Oblast - Missile danger, ballistic threat declared (UA AF, 08:39 UTC).
Kyiv City & Oblast - Air raid alert due to ballistic missile threat (KMVA/Operatyvnyi ZSU/UA AF, 08:47-08:49 UTC). Widespread alerts confirmed across northern/central regions.
(NEW) Cherkasy, Kirovohrad Oblasts - Threat of ballistic missile use declared (UA AF, 09:08 UTC).
(ONGOING) Missile Threat:
(NEW) Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Missile danger declared (UA AF, 09:10 UTC).
(ONGOING) Air Attack Threat:
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Threat of aviation weapons employment declared (UA AF, 08:25 UTC).
High-Speed Target:
High-speed target reported transiting Sumy Oblast earlier (UA AF, 08:35 UTC).
Shahed Drone Attack (Night Apr 11-12):
Official UA Air Force Summary (Apr 12, 07:53 UTC): Russia launched 88 air targets (Shahed-type UAVs and "imitator" drones). Ukrainian Air Force reports 56 Shahed/other attack drones shot down. 24 imitator drones were "locationally lost". Attacks affected Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, and Donetsk Oblasts.
Kyiv City/Oblast Impacts:
Kyiv City (Sviatoshynskyi & Darnytskyi Districts): Falling debris caused large warehouse fires (1500 sq.m., liquidated), destroyed a private house, damaged sports ground/buildings. Three civilians confirmed injured. Photos/video of aftermath released. Russian sources claim successful Geran UAV strike on Antonov plant/facility in Sviatoshynskyi district (Colonelcassad, 09:10 UTC).
Kyiv Oblast (Boryspil & Bucha Districts): Damage to 9 private houses, cars, garages, warehouse premises. 1 house partially destroyed.
Kharkiv Oblast: Kharkiv city attacked. Confirmed Shahed drone impacts on civil enterprise territory. At least one civilian injured.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: AD reportedly destroyed 17 RU UAVs. Damage from UAV attack/debris confirmed in Dnipro city, Pavlohrad district, Synelnykove district. No casualties reported.
Guided Air Bomb (KAB) / Air Strike Threat (ONGOING):
Total KABs (Apr 11): 183 used against Ukraine proper (UGS), 90 used in Kursk operational zone (UGS), 11 used on Kharkiv axis (OTU Kharkiv).
RU tactical aviation ACTIVE on the northeastern front. Repeated KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast reported earlier.
Video claim (RU): Four FAB-250 UMPK strikes on UA positions in Siversk (Colonelcassad, Apr 12).
Russian Long-Range Aviation: Video shows Tu-22M3 bomber taking off (Fighterbomber, Apr 12).
Russian Air Defence Activity vs. Ukrainian UAVs (Overnight Apr 11-12):
RU MoD Claim (Apr 12): Claimed 36 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted/destroyed over 5 Russian regions.
Confirmed Impact (Krasnodar Krai): Damage to railway contact lines at Vasyurinskaya station due to falling UAV fragments.
III. Major Frontline Updates (Derived from UGS 05:01 UTC Apr 12 & Other Sources as noted)
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone (Kursk Operational Zone):
Ukrainian Defense: UA forces repelled 21 RU attacks on Apr 11 (UGS).
Russian Activity/Claims: Heavy RU shelling, 55 air strikes (90 KABs) on Apr 11 (UGS). Fighting ongoing near Hornal and Oleshnia (Kursk); RU conducting storming actions (Rybar/WarGonzo). RU MoD video (Apr 12, 08:28 UTC) shows D-30 howitzers of Tula Airborne Formation firing on alleged UA positions in border settlements. RU claims pushing UA FPV operators from N. Loknya (Sumy), increasing pressure towards Yunakivka/Suja (Colonelcassad, 09:18 UTC). RU reinforcing Oleshnia with DShB elements despite heavy losses (Dnevnik Desantnika, 09:02 UTC).
Kharkiv Axis:
UA forces repelled 3 RU attacks near Kamyanka and Zapadne on Apr 11 (UGS / Liveuamap, 08:23 UTC).
Kupyansk Axis:
UA forces repelled 7 RU attacks near Holubivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove on Apr 11 (UGS / Liveuamap, 08:23 UTC).
DeepState (Apr 11): Confirmed Russian advance near Kotliarivka.
Lyman Axis (High Intensity):
UA forces repelled 25 RU attacks near Nadiia, Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka on Apr 11 (UGS / Liveuamap, 08:23 UTC).
RU Claims/Activity: Fighting ongoing E/NE of Novyi, near Katerynivka, towards Novomykhailivka, E/S of Novyi towards Zelena Dolyna. Expanding control near Makeevka towards Hrekivka. Meeting engagements near Kolodezi, N of Torske. RU source (Z Komitet, 09:04 UTC) reports RU forces took only 4 houses in N. Torske at high cost, held by Shtorm V units; claims UA 63rd Brigade is holding firm and denies reports of UA fleeing.
Siversk Axis:
UA forces repelled 6 RU attacks near Ivano-Darivka, Bilohorivka on Apr 11 (UGS / Liveuamap, 08:23 UTC).
RU claim four FAB-250 UMPK strikes on UA positions in Siversk (Colonelcassad, Apr 12).
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar):
UA forces repelled 3 RU attacks near Kurdiumivka, Chasiv Yar, Orikhovo-Vasylivka on Apr 11 (UGS / Liveuamap, 08:23 UTC).
RU Claims (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 12): Claim full clearance of Zakhidnyi microdistrict, 800m advance south, hospital territory occupied.
UA forces repelled 14 RU attacks near Dachne, Druzhba, Toretsk on Apr 11 (UGS / Liveuamap, 08:23 UTC).
RU Claims (Rybar/WarGonzo/Dnevnik Desantnika, 08:25 UTC): Claim significant advance W of Aleksandropol/Panteleimonivka. Claim ongoing assaults near Tarasivka, Kalynove, Valentynivka. Claim Toretsk mine and Dzerzhynsk city center cleared, repelling small UA counterattacks on outskirts. Claim advance towards Nelepivka (2km gained), ~4km remain to Konstantinovka. Claim RU forces pushed UA out of Zabalka microdistrict and consolidated in adjacent forest plantations, shifting LoC towards Shcherbinivka.
UA forces repelled 40 RU attacks near multiple settlements on Apr 11 (UGS / Liveuamap, 08:23 UTC). UGS claims significant RU losses.
DeepState Update (Apr 11): Confirmed Russian advance in Kalynove and near Novooleksandrivka.
RU Claims: Claim capture and clearance of Kalynove (advance partially corroborated). Claim storming southern part of Kalynove. Claim advance near Kalynove & Vozdvyzhenka. Ongoing fighting in Tarasivka residential areas with RU advance towards center. RU claim advance N of Novotoretske towards Mirolyubivka (1km) (Slivochniy Kapriz, 09:11 UTC).
Kurakhove Direction: UA NGU "Omega" drone strike ("Hostri Kartuzy") kills RU soldier near cemetery (Butusov Plus, 08:57 UTC).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk / Vremivka Axis:
UA forces repelled 6 RU attacks near Rozlyv, Rozdolne on Apr 11 (UGS / Liveuamap, 08:23 UTC).
RU Claims: Claim significant advances near Rozdolne/Andreevka (area figures vary), approaching Bohatyr. Claim advances near Shevchenko, Troitske center reached, SE of Bohdanivka. Claim unsuccessful UA counter-attacks near Bohatyr. RU 5th Tank Brigade claims capture of Polish-made T-72M1 tank (Colonelcassad video, 08:50 UTC). RU 14th Spetsnaz Bde UAV operators claim destruction of US AN/TPQ-48/50 radar near Bohatyr (Voin DV, 09:00 UTC).
Huliaipole Axis:
UA forces repelled 3 RU attacks near Pryvilne, Novosilka, Burlatske on Apr 11 (UGS / Liveuamap, 08:23 UTC).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
UA forces repelled 4 RU attacks near Mali Shcherbaky on Apr 11 (UGS / Liveuamap, 08:23 UTC). Fighting ongoing near Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Kamenske.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson):
UA forces repelled 7 RU attacks on Apr 11, all unsuccessful (UGS / Liveuamap, 08:23 UTC). UA MiG-29 AASM Hammer strike claim. RU 61st Naval Infantry UAV strike claim.
IV. Capabilities & Support
Ukrainian:
Air Defense: Urgent need persists. UA AF confirms 56 Shahed/other drones downed overnight. Impacts highlight saturation challenges. Focus on bolstering Dnipropetrovsk AD. Domestic development ("Bars", FrankenSAM).
Drones: Active use for strikes/recon. Confirmed impacts in Russia (Krasnodar railway). Active FPV use claimed (46th Airmobile, 35th Marines, 4th Mech Bn, Omega NGU).
Air Power: Claimed successful MiG-29 strike using AASM Hammer.
Ground Forces: Repelled numerous attacks. Azov Brigade expanding engineer company into Support Battalion. Infantry highlighted (OTU Kharkiv).
International Support:UK providing new £350M ($459M) package (radar, mines, drones, M&R). Norway allocating €822 million for UA brigade training/equipping. Netherlands FM Caspar Veldkamp visits Lviv. EU support coalition ("coalition of willing") negotiations reportedly stalled due to disagreements (Kallas).
Russian:
Drones: Heavy use of Shaheds (88 launched), FPVs, Lancets, Orlan/Supercam. Claimed FPV destroyed UA M109 SPG (Sumy). Claimed UAV destroyed US AN/TPQ-48/50 radar (Bohatyr). Claimed strike on Antonov plant (alleged drone production site) in Kyiv.
Air Power: Heavy reliance on KABs (183+ used Apr 11). Tactical aviation active NE front. Claimed FAB strikes (Siversk). Tu-22M3 activity.
Air Defense: Claims interception of 36 UA UAVs; impact confirmed Krasnodar.
Artillery: Heavy use. D-30 howitzers shown firing in Kursk border area.
Ground Forces: Claimed successful mining operation vs M113 (Apr 11). Training includes anti-drone tactics. Claimed capture of Polish-made T-72M1 tank by 5th Tank Bde (South Donetsk). RU DShB elements reinforcing Oleshnia (Kursk). RU Shtorm V units fighting in Torske (Lyman).
Information Operations: Disseminating alleged UA POW interviews, claims of UA atrocities/losses (Kursk), critiques of Western equipment, highlighting RU advances/strikes. Promoting narratives around Chinese volunteers. French General predicts UA collapse. Claiming successful strike on Antonov plant.
V. Civilian Impact (Focus on Apr 11-12)
Russian Attacks on Ukraine:
Kyiv City/Oblast (Night Apr 11-12): Drone debris caused large warehouse fire (liquidated), destroyed private house; 3 civilians injured. Damage to 9 houses/property in Oblast. RU sources claim strike hit Antonov plant.
