Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 11, 2025, 07:23 UTC
I. Strategic Overview & Key Assessments
Combat Intensity: Remains High across multiple fronts. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 148 combat engagements on April 10. The highest intensity persists on the Pokrovsk (53 assaults stopped), Toretsk (22 attacks), Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border (24 clashes), and Lyman (13 attacks) axes. Russian forces continue offensive operations employing Guided Air Bombs (KABs), artillery, FPV/kamikaze drones, and ground assaults. Ukrainian forces conduct defensive operations, inflicting losses.
Russian Offensive Methods (UGS Data, Apr 10): 2 missile strikes, 106 aviation strikes (165 KABs deployed), ~6000 artillery/MLRS shelling incidents (96 MLRS), 2388 kamikaze drone strikes targeting Ukrainian positions and populated areas. RU MoD claims hitting multiple AFU concentration areas and specific targets (UAV CPs, strongpoints).
Russian Objectives: Assessed primary focus remains occupying remaining Donbas territory (Pokrovsk direction as main effort) and securing/expanding the border buffer zone (Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod).
Sources (BBC citing UGS source, amplified by RU channels) suggest potential RU plans for a major offensive in May-June, possibly aiming to encircle or semi-encircle Sumy.
A CNN report (cited by RU source) previously suggested a potential Russian objective is to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, potentially via advances west from the Pokrovsk axis towards Novopavlivka.
Toretsk & Pokrovsk: Intense RU pressure continues. RU forces confirmed advances near Toretsk and Pokrovsk (ISW, RU sources). RU claims success clearing parts of Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk) city, offensive developing SW from Oleksandropil/Valentynivka. New RU claim of advance towards Matrona Moskovskaya mine and breakthrough into Nelepivka from Dzerzhynsk (RU Voenkor Kotenok). On Pokrovsk axis, UGS reports stopping 53 RU assaults. DeepState previously confirmed RU advances near Novobakhmutivka/Uspenivka. Conflicting reports near Shevchenko (Pokrovsk): UA sources (Butusov Plus, 425 OShP "Skala") claim a successful UA operation inflicted heavy RU losses (>1100 KIA/WIA) and halted the RU advance towards Pokrovsk; RU sources (Slivochny Kapriz) claim RU forces reached Shevchenko outskirts after a 2km advance W of Velyka Novosilka.
South Donetsk / Novopavlivsk: RU sources (Dva Majora, Rybar, Slivochny Kapriz) claim developing success near Bohatyr, controlling terrain near Rozlyv, advancing towards Komar, and reaching Shevchenko outskirts (W of V. Novosilka). RU 37th GMRB ("Vostok") confirmed active. UGS reports 3 RU attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil/Bahatyr.
Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv Axis): Increased RU activity reported by Zaporizhzhia OVA (>3000 attacks last week, increased ground assaults). RU sources claim maintaining initiative near Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky. UGS reported no ground clashes on Apr 10 but significant RU shelling/drone/air activity. RU 35th Army UAV operators claim destroying UA shelters/equipment (Polohy direction). RU 247th VDV Regt active in recon/strike.
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border:
Increased RU Assault Intensity (Sumy Oblast): Previously reported 30% increase last week (Sumy OVA, Apr 11). UGS reported 24 clashes (Apr 10). RU conducted 45 air strikes (62 KABs) and 372 artillery attacks in the operational zone (UGS, Apr 10). RU Rosgvardia claims destroying UA BMP-1 + troops in Sumy Oblast via drone (Apr 11).
Hornal / Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast): Conflicting claims. RU sources (TASS, Arkangel Spetsnaza, Dva Majora) now claim RU assault underway on UA positions near Hornal, RU cleared forests E of monastery approaching Hornal, and inflicted heavy UA losses in Oleshnia. This contrasts earlier RU source claims (Dva Majora, Rybar) that UA still held Oleshnia/Hornal. RU sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) state no significant change near Oleshnia, RU focusing artillery/drones; note difficulty due to forest cover used by UA.
Popovka / Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast Border): Fighting continues (RU sources).
Krasnoyaruzhsky District (Belgorod Oblast): RU sources claim repelled UA assault attempt (allegedly 225th OShP, 82nd ODShBr) on Apr 10.
UA Capabilities: Claimed successful HIMARS strike near Sudzha (Kursk) killed Akhmat commander/unit (Butusov Plus, Apr 10). UA sources (BBC/UGS) state UA presence in Kursk Oblast (Oleshnia/Hornal) and limited ops in Belgorod/Kursk aimed to disrupt RU grouping for potential Sumy/Kharkiv attack.
RU Claims & Strikes: RU MoD claims downing 30 UA UAVs over Belgorod (5) and Kursk (25) overnight (Apr 10-11). RU MoD claims Su-34 strike on UA UAV CP/launch site in the area (Apr 11).
Alleged War Crimes & Ethical Violations:
Piatykhatky (Zaporizhzhia): UA sources continue circulating video alleging RU execution of surrendered UA soldiers.
Makhnovka (Kursk): RU Investigative Committee allegation of UA killing 9 civilians. Requires independent verification.
RU POW Testimony: RU sources circulate video testimony alleging UA torture.
Kherson Withdrawal Narrative: RU sources (Butusov Plus) circulate narrative alleging UA atrocities (nailing passports) during Kherson withdrawal.
Civilian Impact:
Kharkiv Oblast (Apr 10-11): Multiple RU KAB/Shahed/MLRS strikes reported (Syniehubov). Kupyansk: Medical facility, garages, private homes, multi-story buildings damaged; 3 civilians WIA. Borova: Residential buildings, kindergarten, ambulance damaged. Izium: Shahed strike damaged building near fire station, private home; 1 civilian WIA. Other strikes reported in Vovchansk, Stetskivka, Baranivka, Hrushivka.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Apr 10-11):531 RU strikes (5 air, 330 UAV, 10 MLRS, 186 Arty) reported by OVA across 13 settlements. Damage to homes, infrastructure reported. Initiative in occupied Berdyansk to reduce curfew hours (TASS).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RU drone strike damaged power line in Hrushivska community (Vilkul). UAV attacks on Nikopol/Marhanets. 6 RU UAVs downed over oblast overnight (Lysak). 21 WIA (incl. 5 children) remain hospitalized from Apr 4 Kryvyi Rih strike (Vilkul).
Occupied Territories: Poor water quality reported in Mariupol (Shef Hayabusa). RU claim UAV attack caused power outage in Holoprystansky district (Kherson). RU claim shelling of multiple settlements (Kherson). RU claim UAV strike injured driver in Gorlivka (DNR).
Russian Border Regions: RU claim FPV strike injured 4 civilians (incl. infant) in Bryansk Oblast. RU claim drone dropped explosive on vehicle near Stryguny-Novoaleksandrovka (Belgorod), injuring driver; shelling reported in multiple settlements.
Russian Operational Issues: Repeated "accidental" drops of RU bombs (FABs/UMPB) on Russian/occupied territory continue (ASTRA reporting at least 51 in 2025), latest near Tsibulevka, Belgorod (Apr 9).
Weather Impact: Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions reported in Southern Ukraine (Mykolaiv, Kherson Oblasts) causing transport paralysis, power outages. Traffic restrictions imposed on major highways (M-14, H-11, H-14, H-24) in Mykolaiv Oblast for trucks/buses. Muddy conditions reported impacting vehicle movement on frontline (RU source, Pokrovsk).
II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Current Threats (as of 07:23 UTC):
Air Threat Ended (UA Air Force, 04:10 UTC). Previous threats included:
Tactical Aviation/KABs: Active towards Kharkiv (03:24 UTC), Sumy (06:18 UTC), Donetsk (06:30 UTC) Oblasts.
UAV Threat: Active towards Kharkiv Oblast (05:11 UTC).
UAV Interceptions (UA Air Force, Apr 10 09:00 - Apr 11 09:00): Claim 24 Shahed/other strike UAVs shot down out of 39 launched. Additionally, 13 "imitator" drones were tracked but "locationally lost" without negative consequences. Launches originated from Kursk, Orel, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia). 6 RU UAVs downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Lysak).
Impacts (Ukraine): Missile strike Dnipro (1 KIA, 9 WIA). Shahed strike Ozerne (1 KIA, 5 WIA). Shahed strike Izium (1 WIA). Multiple KAB strikes in Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk, Borova, Baranivka) causing casualties/damage. Air strikes reported across multiple oblasts (UGS). RU sources claimed strike on military airfield in Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast) (Apr 10).
Ukrainian Air Defence & Strike Capabilities:
Air Defence: Actively engaging RU aviation/KABs/drones. Confirmed interceptions of Shaheds. Need for systems/munitions persists (alleged IRIS-T missile, Patriot parts shortages).
Drone Capabilities: Active use by multiple brigades (14th UAV Regt, 137th Marine Bde, 155th Mech Bde, 47th Mech Bde "Magura", 425 OShP "Skala"). UA developing fiber-optic FPVs, interceptor drones (Syrskyi). Procurement ongoing via crowdfunding (+378 FPVs purchased Apr 10 - Sternenko). UK/Norway aid package ($580M) includes funding for rapid FPV delivery.
Counter-Intelligence: Capture of alleged FSB agent in Dnipro using disguised camera to track UA logistics routes reported (Prosecutor General Office).
Russian Air/Drone Claims & Activity:
Claimed hitting 144 AFU concentration areas (RU MoD, Apr 10). Claimed Su-34 strike against UA UAV CP/launch site (Kursk border, Apr 11). Claimed Malka SPG strike on UA strongpoint (Pokrovsk direction, Apr 11). Claimed 52nd VDV Arty Bde strike on UA UAV point (Kherson right bank, Apr 11). Claimed destroying UA equipment via drone strikes (35th Army on Polohy direction; 14th Spetsnaz Bde destroying "Baba Yaga" launch point on Shakhtarsk direction).
Heavy KAB use continues (165 deployed Apr 10 per UGS; specific strikes Kharkiv/Kupyansk/Borova). Active KAB launches towards Sumy/Donetsk reported (Apr 11 morning).
Claimed downing 30 UA UAVs over Belgorod/Kursk oblasts overnight (RU MoD, Apr 11).
Operational Issues: Reports of repeated accidental bomb drops on Russian/occupied territory persist (ASTRA).
III. Key Frontline Developments (UGS Update 08:00 UTC, Apr 11 & Other Sources)
Total Engagements (Apr 10): 148 combat clashes reported by UGS.
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone (High Intensity):24 clashes reported by UGS (Apr 10). RU conducted 45 air strikes (62 KABs), 372 artillery attacks.
RU Claims:Zhuravka (Sumy) captured (MoD). Assault initiated near Hornal (Kursk), RU forces cleared forests east of monastery, approaching village (Arkangel Spetsnaza, Dva Majora). Heavy UA losses claimed in Oleshnia (Kursk), RU advance near monastery (TASS). Fighting continues near Popovka/Demidovka (Belgorod). RU repelled UA assault attempt in Krasnoyaruzhsky District (Belgorod). RU Rosgvardia destroyed UA BMP-1 in Sumy Oblast.
UA Claims/Posture: UA conducting counter-actions near Basivka (Sumy) (RU source). UA still holds bridgehead in Oleshnia/Hornal area (Kursk) to disrupt RU grouping (UGS source via BBC). Successful HIMARS strike near Sudzha (Kursk) claimed (Butusov Plus). UA forces downed 2 RU UAVs near Volchansk (RU source).
Situation: Fluid, with intense fighting and conflicting claims, particularly around Hornal/Oleshnia.
Kharkiv Axis:4 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk (UGS, Syniehubov). RU sources claim RU forces advancing on eastern outskirts of Vovchansk, repelling UA assaults. RU artillery/UAV strikes target UA groups near Liptsi (RU source). Heavy RU KAB/Shahed/MLRS strikes across the region, civilian casualties/damage reported (Syniehubov). UAV threat active (UA Air Force, 05:11 UTC).
Kupyansk Axis:5 RU attacks repelled near Nova Kruhlyakivka, Pishchane, Zahryzove (UGS, Syniehubov). Heavy RU KAB strikes on Kupyansk city causing civilian casualties/damage. RU claim drone-mining used against UA supply route previously. RU sources appeal for ATVs/drones for 352nd MRP operating here.
Lyman Axis (High Intensity):13 RU attacks repelled near Nadiia, Nove, Yampolivka, Torske, Dronivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka, Katerynivka, Novomykhailivka (UGS). Heavy RU KAB strikes reported on Borova. RU previously confirmed control of Katerynivka. BBC source (via UA GSF) claims RU breached UA defense here early April.
Siversk Axis:8 RU attacks repelled near Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske (UGS).
Kramatorsk Axis:3 RU attacks repelled near Bila Hora, Kurdiumivka (UGS). Fighting ongoing near Chasiv Yar, where UA previously achieved tactical successes (ISW).
Toretsk Axis (High Intensity):22 RU attacks repelled near Dyliivka, Druzhba, Toretsk (UGS). RU forces confirmed advances near Toretsk (ISW). RU sources claim success clearing parts of Toretsk city, offensive developing SW from Oleksandropil/Valentynivka. RU claims advance towards Matrona Moskovskaya mine and breakthrough into Nelepivka from Dzerzhynsk (Voenkor Kotenok).
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity / Assessed RU Main Effort):53 RU assaults stopped (UGS). High activity towards Romanivka, Oleksandropil, Serhiivka, Kotliarivka; near Kalynove, Sribne, Tarasivka, Sukha Balka, Valentynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Bohdanivka. RU forces confirmed advances near Pokrovsk (ISW). Conflicting reports near Shevchenko: UA 425 OShP "Skala" claims successful operation inflicting >1100 RU KIA/WIA, halting RU offensive towards Pokrovsk (Butusov Plus); RU sources claim reaching Shevchenko outskirts (Slivochny Kapriz). UA 155th Mech Bde confirmed active ambushing RU forces (Butusov Plus). RU claims Malka SPG strike on UA strongpoint. Muddy conditions impacting RU vehicle movement (RU source). Air threat active (UA Air Force, 06:30 UTC).
Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk:3 unsuccessful RU attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil/Bahatyr (UGS). RU sources claim developing success near Bohatyr, controlling terrain near Rozlyv, advancing towards Komar, and reaching Shevchenko outskirts (RU claims). RU 37th GMRB confirmed active. RU 14th Spetsnaz Bde claims destroying UA "Baba-Yaga" UAV launch point + infantry (Shakhtarsk direction).
Huliaipole Axis:3 RU attacks stopped near Pryvilne (UGS).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Increased RU activity (shelling/assaults) confirmed by Zaporizhzhia OVA. RU sources claim maintaining initiative near Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky. UGS reported no ground clashes Apr 10. RU 35th Army UAV operators active. RU 247th VDV Regt active.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank):2 unsuccessful RU attacks repelled (UGS). Mutual shelling reported. RU 52nd VDV Arty Bde claims destroying UA UAV point on right bank. RU claim UA shelling caused power outage in Holoprystansky district.
IV. Logistics, Capabilities & Technology
Russian:
Drone Technology: Heavy use of FPV/Lancet/ZALA. Claimed UAV strikes by multiple units (35th Army, 14th Spetsnaz, 52nd VDV Arty). Claimed Su-34 strike targeting UA UAV CP/launch site (Kursk area). Fundraising appeal for Mavic 3T, Matrice 30T drones, signal boosters for 352nd MRP (Kupyansk).
Operational Reliability: Reports of repeated accidental bomb drops (at least 51 in 2025 per ASTRA) raise questions about munition reliability/systems.
Artillery/Missiles: Heavy KAB use (165 deployed Apr 10 + active launches). Use of Malka SPG, TOS-1A confirmed.
Logistics & Force Structure: Reliance on crowdfunding persists (drones, ATVs for 352nd MRP). Reports of Rosgvardia units conducting frontline strikes (Sumy). Production of Mi-38 helicopters restarted, primarily for EMERCOM initially (RU source). Internal issues: Corruption case involving fmr Dep MoD Bulgakov extended.
Capabilities: Showcased machine gun complex with thermal sight funded by donations.
Ukrainian:
Precision Strike: Claimed successful HIMARS strike near Sudzha (Kursk).
Air Defense: Needs persist (munitions/parts). Actively engaging targets. EU providing €2.1B from frozen RU assets (partially for AD).
Drone Technology: Active FPV use by multiple brigades. UA developing fiber-optic FPVs, interceptor drones (Syrskyi). New UK/Norway aid package ($580M) includes funding for rapid FPV delivery, sourced partly from UK/UA manufacturers. Procurement via crowdfunding continues (+378 FPVs Apr 10).
Logistics/Needs: Call from Zaporizhzhia OVA for more EW, drones, vehicles. Syrskyi emphasizes faster repair/return of equipment, protection against FPVs, improving armored transport for troops. Notes increased role of private sector in repairs (incl. foreign equipment). UK/Norway package includes funds for repair/maintenance, radars, anti-tank mines. Weather (snow) disrupting transport in Mykolaiv Oblast. Crowdfunding appeal for field cots for frontline units (RBC-Ukraina).
Personnel: Recruitment drive for 18-24 year olds highlighted (92nd Bde). Psychological training ongoing (tank over trench).
V. Personnel, Mobilization & Ethical Considerations
Russian Losses (UA Claims): Significant RU losses claimed near Shevchenko (Pokrovsk) (>1100 KIA/WIA, 425 OShP claim). UA 155th Mech Bde video shows ambush/destruction of RU group (Pokrovsk). UA 47th Mech Bde video shows destruction of 6 RU personnel via drone. Claimed elimination of Akhmat commander/unit near Sudzha (Kursk) via HIMARS.
Ukrainian Losses (RU Claims): Heavy UA losses claimed in Oleshnia (Kursk) (TASS). Claim destruction of UA BMP-1 + troops (Sumy Oblast, Rosgvardia). Claim strikes on UA shelters/equipment (Zaporizhzhia/Polohy, 35th Army). Claim destruction of "Baba Yaga" launch point + infantry (Shakhtarsk, 14th Spetsnaz). RU sources cite UA source claiming heavy losses/disorganized withdrawal from Kursk operation (only 2/10 brigades "normally").
Civilian Casualties: Reported on both sides due to strikes/shelling (Kharkiv Oblast: 4+ WIA; Dnipro: 1 KIA, 9 WIA; Ozerne: 1 KIA, 5 WIA; Kryvyi Rih: 21 WIA hospitalized; Zaporizhzhia: Damage reported; Bryansk: 4 WIA; Belgorod: 1+ WIA; Gorlivka: 1 WIA).
Alleged War Crimes/Ethical Violations: Ongoing dissemination of Piatykhatky execution video by UA. RU promotes Makhnovka allegation, POW torture testimony, Kherson passport nailing narrative.
Mobilization/Personnel Issues:
Ukraine: RU sources highlight alleged corruption case involving prosecutor obtaining TCC job. RU video alleges man escaping mobilization officers in Odesa. UA highlights recruitment efforts (92nd Bde). Capture of alleged FSB agent in Dnipro.
Frontline Claims: UGS emphasizes repelled attacks (148 total Apr 10), high RU losses (1210 personnel). UA sources claim major success stopping RU advance near Shevchenko (Pokrovsk) with high RU casualties (Butusov Plus). RU sources claim advances near Toretsk (Nelepivka, mine), Pokrovsk (Shevchenko outskirts), South Donetsk (Bohatyr, Rozlyv, Komar, Shevchenko), initiative near Shcherbaky. RU claims assault underway near Hornal (Kursk), contradicting earlier claims of UA holding it. RU MoD confirms Zhuravka (Sumy) captured. Both sides showcase drone strikes.
Alleged Atrocities: RU promotes POW torture video, Kherson passport narrative. UA highlights Piatykhatky video. Both sides report civilian casualties from enemy actions.
Logistics/Support/Personnel Narrative: RU fundraising appeals (352 MRP Kupyansk). UA highlights crowdfunding (FPV drones, field cots), Western aid (UK/Norway), Syrskyi focus on repairs/logistics. RU sources amplify claims of heavy UA losses/disorganized withdrawal from Kursk op. UA highlights recruitment. RU highlights internal crackdowns, alleged UA mobilization issues.
Diplomacy/Politics Narrative: Focus on potential Trump envoy (Witcoff) visit to Moscow for talks with Putin, possibility of sanctions if no ceasefire. US State Dept emphasis on ceasefire as priority. Reports on US Ambassador Brink's resignation linked to Trump admin/Zelensky relations. Potential UK troop deployment discussion continues. China urging EU cooperation vs US tariffs.
VII. Diplomacy & International Relations
International Aid (Ukraine):New UK/Norway Aid Package (£450M / $580M) announced, focusing on rapid delivery of FPV drones (some UK/UA sourced), radar systems, anti-tank mines, repair/maintenance. EU providing €2.1B from frozen RU assets.
US-Russia-Ukraine:
Reports indicate Trump special representative Stephen Witcoff traveled to Russia, potentially meeting Putin (Axios, TASS, RBC-Ukraina). Flightradar data suggests landing in St. Petersburg.
Focus on potential ceasefire as primary US negotiation point (US State Dept via UA sources).
Axios source suggests Trump may impose further RU sanctions if no ceasefire by end of month.
US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink confirmed resignation, linked by sources (FT, TASS, UA sources) to policy disagreements with Trump admin and potentially strained relations with Zelensky.
Potential Foreign Troop Deployment (Ukraine):The Telegraph report continues circulating, suggesting UK considering 5-year troop deployment as part of potential European force for training/deterrence. Discussed by 30 Defence Ministers.
China Diplomacy: Xi Jinping reportedly urged EU to cooperate with China against US tariffs (AFP via Tsaplienko). US INDOPACOM Cmdr previously alleged significant Chinese tech (machine tools, microchips) support for RU MIC, in exchange for RU tech (submarine, AD).
Internal RU: Detention extended for former Deputy Defence Minister Bulgakov in corruption case. Crackdown on dissent (bookstore raids St. Petersburg, ethics code Surgut). Counter-terrorism op in Ingushetia.
