Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 11, 2025, 03:59 UTC
I. Strategic Overview & Key Assessments
Combat Intensity: Remains High across multiple fronts. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 125 combat engagements as of 19:00 UTC, April 10. The highest intensity is concentrated on the Pokrovsk (42 attacks), Toretsk (19 attacks), Lyman (13 attacks), and Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border (Significant engagements, RU claims >22 total) axes. Russian forces continue offensive operations employing Guided Air Bombs (KABs/UMPK FABs), artillery, FPV/kamikaze drones, and ground assaults. Ukrainian forces are conducting defensive operations and inflicting losses.
Russian Offensive Methods (UGS Data, Apr 10): 1 missile strike, 77 aviation strikes (114 KABs deployed), 931 kamikaze drone strikes, 4218 artillery/MLRS shelling incidents targeting Ukrainian positions. RU MoD claims hitting 144 AFU concentration areas. RU MoD claims a Su-34 strike targeted a UA UAV control point and launch site in the Kursk border region (Apr 11).
Russian Objectives: Assessed primary focus remains occupying remaining Donbas territory (Pokrovsk direction as main effort) and securing/expanding the border buffer zone (Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod). Anticipated intensification of offensive operations in late April-May 2025.
A CNN report (cited by RU source) suggests a potential Russian objective is to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to gain strategic leverage for future negotiations. RU sources amplify this, suggesting forces on the Pokrovsk axis may be directed west towards Novopavlivka rather than Pokrovsk city itself.
Toretsk & Pokrovsk: Russian forces confirmed to have made advances near Toretsk and Pokrovsk (ISW). RU sources (Dva Majora, Apr 11) claim success clearing urban areas in Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk), with offensive developing SW from Oleksandropil/Valentynivka and heavy fighting in Tarasivka.
South Donetsk / Novopavlivsk: RU sources (Dva Majora, Apr 11) claim developing success near Bohatyr and taking control of terrain near Rozlyv.
Zaporizhzhia West: RU sources (Dva Majora, Apr 11) claim maintaining initiative near Shcherbaky and Mali Shcherbaky, conducting assaults despite significant UA drone/artillery use. Heavy fighting reported.
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border:
Increased Assault Intensity (Sumy Oblast Focus): Head of Sumy Oblast Military Administration (OVA) previously reported Russian ground assault intensity increased by 30% over the last week (as of Apr 11 morning), with 47 assault actions recorded against Ukrainian positions on the Sumy border during that period. Main Russian ground efforts focused on Zhuravka and Basivka directions.
UGS Report (19:00 UTC, Apr 10):22 combat engagements recorded in the zone. Russian forces conducted 40 air strikes (54 KABs) and 305 artillery attacks (incl. 12 MLRS). Ukrainian forces maintain defensive posture.
Zhuravka (Sumy Oblast): Russian MoD officially confirmed capture (Apr 10). RU sources (Rybar) claim adjacent forest belts also secured. RU sources (Dva Majora) now report Ukrainian forces undertaking counter-actions near Basivka, attempting to counter RU advances.
Oleshnia / Hornal (Kursk Oblast): RU sources (Dva Majora, Apr 11) claim Ukrainian forces continue to hold Oleshnia and Hornal, as well as the Svyato-Nikolaevsky Monastery. This source notes a lack of visual confirmation for RU offensive actions in this specific area, contrasting some earlier RU milblogger claims.
Loknya (Sumy Oblast): RU sources (Rybar) previously reported heavy fighting near Loknya.
Krasnoyaruzhsky District (Belgorod Oblast): RU sources (Dva Majora, Apr 11) claim a Ukrainian assault group (allegedly 225th OShP, 82nd ODShBr) attempted a cross-border raid early Apr 10 and was repelled by Russian fire.
Popovka / Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast Border): RU sources (Dva Majora, Apr 11) report fighting continues in this area. Video previously confirmed UA tanks breaching defenses near Demidovka.
Sudzha (Kursk Oblast): Ukrainian source previously claimed successful HIMARS strike killed a Chechen "Akhmat" platoon commander and unit (Butusov Plus, Apr 10).
RU Claims (MoD, Apr 10 & Dva Majora, Apr 11): MoD claimed >420 UA personnel losses, equipment destruction in Kursk region (Apr 10). Dva Majora reports ongoing "harassing fire" on RU border positions. RU MoD claims Su-34 strike on UA UAV CP/launch site in the area (Apr 11).
Force Deployments & Logistics (RU): RU VDV units (119 PDP/106 VDD, 56 DShP) active, need drones/EW. Fundraising appeals continue.
Alleged War Crimes & Ethical Violations:
Piatykhatky (Zaporizhzhia): UA sources continue circulating video alleging Russian execution of 4 surrendered Ukrainian soldiers (March 13).
Makhnovka (Kursk): RU Investigative Committee allegation of UA killing 9 civilians (Apr 10 video). Requires independent verification.
Russian POW Testimony (RU Source Allegation, Apr 11): RU sources (Colonelcassad) circulate video testimony of a returned RU POW ("Lega") alleging torture and mistreatment by UA forces ("Right Sector", "Azov").
RU Claims (Unverified): RU sources circulate anecdotal claims of UA forces committing atrocities ("Markers of War" video, Apr 10; Kherson withdrawal context video alleging reprisals, Apr 11; claim of passport nailing, Apr 11).
Civilian Impact (Recent Incidents):
Bryansk Oblast (RU Claim, Apr 10): FPV strike on civilian vehicle injured 4 civilians, including infant (Dva Majora, Apr 11).
Belgorod Oblast (RU Claim, Apr 10): Drone dropped explosive on civilian vehicle near Stryguny-Novoaleksandrovka, injuring driver. Shelling reported in Ilek-Koshary, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Belyanka, Novoe, Ryabiki (Dva Majora, Apr 11).
Kherson Oblast (Occupied): RU claim UAV attack on power substation in Holoprystansky district caused outage for ~5,000 people in 5 villages (Dva Majora, Apr 11). RU claim UA shelling of Nova Kakhovka, Kakhovka, Hornostaivka, Bekhtery, Kairy, Nyzhniy Rohachyk, Chulakivka, Oleshky.
Ozerne (Zhytomyr Oblast, Apr 10): Shahed drone strike hit residential building. One civilian KIA, Five WIA.
Nikopol District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Sustained RU attacks resulted in 13 civilians WIA recently.
Kryvyi Rih (Apr 4): Confirmed Iskander-K cluster munition strike resulted in 20 KIA (incl. 9 children), >90 WIA.
Russian Operational Issues: Independent source (ASTRA, Apr 11) reports another "accidental" drop of a Russian UMPB-250 glide bomb near Tsibulevka, Belgorod Oblast on Apr 9, damaging 8 homes. Governor blamed Ukraine. ASTRA claims this marks at least 51 unintended munitions drops (FABs/UMPB) by RU aircraft onto Russian or occupied territory in 2025. This highlights potential risks to Russian civilians and issues with munition/release systems reliability.
II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Current Threats (as of 03:59 UTC):
Tactical Aviation Threat: Remains ACTIVE on the northeastern direction. Threat of aviation weapon employment for frontline oblasts persists (UA Air Force, 03:18 UTC).
Guided Air Bomb (KAB) Threat: Remains ACTIVE. Confirmed KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation towards Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force, 03:24 UTC). Ongoing general threat for other frontline oblasts.
Naval Missile Threat:LOW from Black Sea/Sea of Azov. Ukrainian Navy reports zero Russian missile carriers deployed in the Black Sea or Sea of Azov as of morning Apr 11. Three missile carriers (up to 26 Kalibr missiles total) remain deployed in the Mediterranean Sea. (RBC-Ukraina / VMS ZSU, Apr 11).
Precision Strikes: UA source claimed HIMARS strike near Sudzha (Kursk) eliminated RU Akhmat platoon commander and unit (Butusov Plus, Apr 10).
Air Strikes: Video evidence of UA airstrikes destroying alleged RU HQs (Apr 10). Claimed MiG-29 strike on RU CP (Apr 10).
Air Defence Systems Performance (Alleged Bundeswehr Report): Issues noted with IRIS-T missile supply, Patriot parts. Gepard reliable.
Ground Forces Drone Capabilities: Active use by multiple brigades (14th UAV Regt, 137th Marine Bde, 155th Mech Bde). New UK/Norway funding announced for rapid delivery of FPV drones (Apr 11). Identification of 414th Separate UAV Brigade ("Ptakhi Magyar") and commander Robert Brovdi ("Magyar") via RU IW sources (Colonelcassad, Apr 11).
New Munition: Development of "Foot Crusher" drone-dropped munition (Apr 10).
Russian Air/Drone Claims & Activity:
Claimed hitting 144 AFU concentration areas (RU MoD, Apr 10).
Claimed Su-34 strike against a UA UAV control point and launch site in the Kursk border area (RU MoD, Apr 11).
Continued heavy KAB strikes reported on Borova and Kupyansk (Apr 10). Active KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast (Apr 11).
Showcased TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS strike on Kupyansk direction (Apr 11).
Drone Mining: RU MoD claimed drone operators laid mines on UA supply route in Kupyansk direction, destroying UA vehicle (Apr 10).
Equipment Destruction Claims: RU sources claim destruction of abandoned UA equipment (South Donetsk, Apr 10) and Turkish-supplied BMC Kirpi MRAPs (Apr 10, Apr 11).
Operational Issues: Reports of repeated accidental bomb drops on Russian/occupied territory (ASTRA, Apr 11), potentially indicating technical faults or crew errors.
Total Engagements (Apr 10): 125 combat clashes reported by UGS (19:00 UTC).
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Zone (High Intensity): Increased RU assault intensity reported previously (Sumy OVA). UGS reported 22 engagements (Apr 10). RU MoD confirms Zhuravka (Sumy) captured. RU claims UA conducting counter-actions near Basivka (Sumy). RU sources claim UA forces hold Oleshnia and Hornal (Kursk). RU claims repelled UA assault (225 OShP, 82 ODShBr) in Krasnoyaruzhsky District (Belgorod). Fighting continues near Popovka/Demidovka (Belgorod). RU shelling/FPV strikes target border areas causing civilian casualties (Bryansk, Belgorod). RU MoD claims Su-34 strike on UA UAV CP/launch site. UA claims successful HIMARS strike near Sudzha (Kursk) (Butusov Plus).
Kharkiv Axis:4 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk (UGS, Apr 10). Active RU KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast reported (03:24 UTC, Apr 11).
Kupyansk Axis:5 RU attacks (3 ongoing as of Apr 10 evening). Heavy RU KAB strikes reported on Kupyansk city (Apr 10). UA claim destruction of RU assault group (Apr 10). RU claim drone-mining used against UA supply route (Apr 10). RU video shows TOS-1A strike (Apr 11).
Lyman Axis (High Intensity):13 RU attacks (6 ongoing as of Apr 10 evening). Heavy RU KAB strikes reported on Borova (Apr 10). Previous RU control of Katerynivka confirmed.
Siversk Axis:5 RU attacks repelled (2 ongoing as of Apr 10 evening).
Toretsk Axis (High Intensity):19 RU attacks repelled (UGS, Apr 10). RU occupied Oleksandropil (DeepState, Apr 10). RU forces confirmed advances near Toretsk (ISW, Apr 11). RU sources claim success clearing parts of Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk) city and offensive developing SW from Oleksandropil/Valentynivka towards Druzhba. Heavy fighting reported in Tarasivka. (Dva Majora, Apr 11).
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity / Assessed RU Main Effort):42 RU assaults (10 ongoing as of Apr 10 evening). RU forces confirmed advances near Pokrovsk (ISW, Apr 11). RU advanced near Novobakhmutivka and in Uspenivka (DeepState, Apr 10). RU air strikes near Hrodivka. UA 155th Mech Bde confirmed active with drone strikes.
Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk:2 unsuccessful RU attacks (UGS, Apr 10). RU sources claim developing success near Bohatyr and controlling terrain near Rozlyv (Dva Majora, Apr 11). RU advancing towards Bohatyr and near Rozdolne (Rybar, Apr 10). RU source (Colonelcassad via Voin DV, Apr 11) released video confirming RU 37th GMRB ("Vostok" Group) involvement in assaults on Komar and Dneproenergiya.
Huliaipole Axis:3 RU attacks stopped near Pryvilne (UGS, Apr 10).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):RU sources claim maintaining initiative near Shcherbaky and Mali Shcherbaky, conducting assaults despite UA drones/artillery. Heavy fighting reported. (Dva Majora, Apr 11). UGS reported 6 RU assaults repelled near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Shcherbaky (evening Apr 9).
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank):2 unsuccessful RU attacks (UGS, Apr 10). Mutual shelling reported. RU claim UA shelling of multiple settlements. RU claim UAV attack caused power outage in Holoprystansky district.
IV. Logistics, Capabilities & Technology
Russian:
Drone Technology: Continued heavy use of FPV/kamikaze drones. Claimed use of drones for mining (Kupyansk). Development of 12kg payload hexacopter reported. Fundraising for EW backpacks for VDV ongoing. Mavic 3 Pro delivered to 119th PDP VDV. RU MoD claims Su-34 strike targeting UA UAV control point/launch site (Kursk area). Planned international drone hub in Amur region signals long-term focus.
Operational Reliability: Reports of repeated accidental bomb drops (at least 51 in 2025 per ASTRA) raise questions about munition reliability, aircraft maintenance, or crew training/procedures.
Artillery/Missiles: Heavy KAB use (Active KABs towards Kharkiv). Use of Uragan MLRS, Msta-B, TOS-1A confirmed. Claimed missile strike on UA UAV CPs (Kursk border).
Vehicle Protection: Add-on armor kits and anti-drone cages observed. Drone strike effectiveness against cage armor noted.
Logistics & Force Structure: Reliance on crowdfunding for specialized gear persists. Reports of Rosgvardia transfers to frontline Army units (e.g., 132nd MRB). Internal MIC Issues: Corruption case involving former Dep MoD Bulgakov extended (TASS, Apr 11), potentially indicating ongoing issues within defence procurement/logistics.
Ukrainian:
Precision Strike: Claimed successful HIMARS strike near Sudzha (Kursk).
Air Defense: Shortages persist (IRIS-T missiles, Patriot parts per alleged report). EU/UK/Norway funding aims to bolster AD and drone capabilities. Currently engaging RU tactical aviation & KABs over northeastern regions.
Drone Technology: Active FPV use (14th UAV Regt, 137th Marine Bde, 155th Mech Bde). New UK/Norway aid package ($580M) includes funding for rapid delivery of FPV drones. 414th Separate UAV Brigade (Navy - "Ptakhi Magyar") identified, targeted by RU IW.
Logistics/Needs: EU providing €2.1B from frozen RU assets. New UK/Norway package ($580M) includes funds for repair/maintenance, radars, anti-tank mines. RU drone-mining poses logistical threat (Kupyansk).
V. Personnel, Mobilization & Ethical Considerations
Casualties: Specific claims from both sides continue (UGS RU losses Pokrovsk; UA claims RU losses Kupyansk, Sudzha; RU claims UA losses Oleshnia, Kursk area, equipment losses). Civilian casualties reported from strikes/shelling in multiple regions on both sides of the border (Bryansk, Belgorod, Gorlivka, Dnipro, Ozerne, etc.).
Alleged War Crimes: Ongoing dissemination of Piatykhatky execution video by UA. RU promotes Makhnovka allegation and POW torture testimony.
Russian Personnel Issues: Transfer of Rosgvardia to frontline units noted. Duma proposal for construction training for veterans highlights reintegration focus and potential labor needs. Continued corruption investigations (Bulgakov case extension) within MoD leadership structure.
Mobilization Issues (Reported): Previous reports of resistance to mobilization efforts (Kryvyi Rih).
VI. Information Warfare / Key Narratives
Frontline Claims: UGS emphasizes repelled attacks. ISW confirms UA success near Chasiv Yar, RU advances near Toretsk/Pokrovsk. RU sources (Dva Majora) claim advances/clearing operations in Toretsk, progress near Bohatyr/Rozlyv, and initiative near Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky. RU sources claim UA holds Oleshnia/Hornal (Kursk) but also repelled UA assault in Belgorod. RU MoD promotes Su-34 strike on UAV CP. UA sources claim HIMARS strike on Akhmat unit (Kursk). DeepState confirms RU gains (Oleksandropil, etc.).
Alleged Atrocities: RU promotes POW torture video. UA highlights Piatykhatky video. RU circulates claims of UA targeting civilians (Bryansk FPV, Belgorod drone, Gorlivka UAV).
Corruption/Competence: RU IW targets UA drone commander ("Magyar"). ASTRA reports on repeated RU accidental bomb drops counter RU narratives of precision/competence. Bulgakov corruption case extension provides factual basis for narratives about internal RU MoD issues.
Capabilities Narrative: UA highlights drone effectiveness, HIMARS precision, Western aid (UK/Norway package). RU showcases TOS-1A, Su-34 strikes, drone mining, naval special forces (IW video), vehicle adaptations.
Logistics/Support/Personnel Narrative: RU fundraising continues. UK/Norway aid package reinforces Western support for UA. Reports of Rosgvardia transfers, Duma veteran proposal, Bulgakov case provide angles on RU personnel/logistics situation.
Diplomacy Narrative: US State Dept comments on Trump/ceasefire focus circulated by UA sources.
VII. Diplomacy & International Relations
International Aid (Ukraine):New UK/Norway Aid Package ($580M / £450M) announced, focusing on rapid delivery of FPV drones, repair/maintenance, radar systems, anti-tank mines. EU providing €2.1B from frozen RU assets.
Potential Foreign Troop Deployment (Ukraine): Previous reports (The Telegraph) suggested UK considering 5-year troop deployment as part of potential European force.
US Political Context: Statements attributed to Trump/State Dept regarding ceasefire as primary negotiation point circulated (Tsaplienko).
China Diplomacy: Xi Jinping visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia scheduled Apr 14-18.
Internal RU: Detention extended for former Deputy Defence Minister Bulgakov in high-profile corruption case.
