Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 10, 2025, 13:29 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Major Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains High across multiple fronts, with 85 combat clashes reported since the start of the day (UGS 16:00 UTC). The most intense fighting is reported on the Pokrovsk (27 attacks), Toretsk (16 attacks), Lyman (8 attacks), and Kursk/Sumy Border (6 attacks by RU forces in Kursk) axes.
Russian Offensive Focus: Russian forces continue offensive operations aimed at capturing Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and establishing a "buffer zone" in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv Oblasts (Syrskyi assessment, Apr 9). Russian ground offensive pressure persists, marked by heavy use of Guided Air Bombs (KABs), artillery, FPV drones, and ground assaults.
Dnipro Attack: Significant explosion reported in Dnipro city around 13:06 UTC, preceded by warnings of a high-speed target and followed by reports of a ballistic missile strike. A large smoke plume is visible. Russian sources (RVvoenkor, Voenkor Kotenok, Colonelcassad) report a powerful explosion following a claimed Iskander strike. (Operativnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko, RBC-Ukraina, RVvoenkor, Voenkor Kotenok). Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, 13:20 UTC) claim multiple strikes targeted:
Kramatorsk: Alleged PVD of UAV operators (2 terminals, radio relay equipment damaged).
Druzhkivka: Alleged repair base for 5th Mech Bde in tram depot (equipment/vehicles damaged, 3 KIA, 4 WIA claimed).
Sloviansk: Alleged repair company location of 63rd Bde (repair box hit, spare parts destroyed).
Sergeevka: Alleged rotation point for SBU officers/foreign instructors (building destroyed). Requires Verification.
Kursk/Sumy Border Situation:
Basivka / Loknya (Sumy): Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade reports destroying Russian infantry groups in Basivka (northern outskirts). Russian forces are reportedly accumulating in Basivka, attempting to consolidate positions. Previous Russian attempts to advance into Loknya were reportedly unsuccessful, but further attempts are expected. The overall situation in Sumy Oblast is described as "not the best" (DeepState, 13:00 UTC). Russian source (Basurin, 13:05 UTC) claims RU forces are pushing towards Yunakivka and struck UA logistics hub there.
Zhuravka (Sumy): Conflicting reports persist. Russian MoD/RVvoenkor (Apr 10 morning/12:58 UTC) claim capture, reinforced by video allegedly from RU 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade raising a flag. However, another RU source (Dnevnik Desantnika, 12:08 UTC) stated the settlement was not fully liberated, though pressure towards Yunakovka continued. UGS (16:00 UTC) reports UA forces repelled 6 RU attacks in Kursk Oblast. Russian source (Basurin, 13:05 UTC) claims RU forces pushed UA out of Zhuravka and inflicted heavy losses (>73k UA KIA claimed for the 8th month, requires extreme skepticism).
Oleshnia / Hornal (Kursk): Intense fighting reported ongoing (UGS Apr 9, Colonelcassad Apr 9). Russian sources claim a successful missile strike targeted a concentration area of the Ukrainian 80th Air Assault Brigade and UAV control points of the 1st Tank Brigade and 95th Air Assault Brigade near Oleshnia, alleging up to 45 Ukrainian personnel losses (Colonelcassad, 12:36 UTC). Requires verification. Russian source (Basurin, 13:05 UTC) claims RU forces struck 6 UA brigades (incl. 3 Air Assault) near Hornal/Oleshnia, and these are the only settlements UA holds in Kursk.
Konstantynivka Direction (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources (Colonelcassad citing Don_Partizan, 13:03 UTC) claim ongoing successful RU offensive operations with advances:
Near Arkhangelske towards Kalynove (up to 2 km), with RU forces beginning assaults on southern outskirts of Kalynove.
West of Alexandropol towards Zelene Pillya (attempting to straighten front line).
Near Valentynivka (200m westwards).
North-east of Druzhba (up to 500m).
Fighting ongoing N/NW of Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk), near Chasiv Yar, and Stupochky without significant changes reported. RU claims require verification.
International Developments:
"Coalition of the Willing" Meeting (Brussels): Meeting involving representatives from 30 states started in Brussels. Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov is attending. Stated aim is establishing lasting peace in Ukraine, including the potential deployment of foreign troops (Tsaplienko, 13:06 UTC). Estonian PM Kallas stated EU/NATO countries are studying sending troops post-armistice (monitoring/deterrence roles) (TASS, 13:14 UTC).
US-Russia Consultations (Istanbul): Talks focused solely on bilateral diplomatic mission normalization concluded after ~5.5 hours (TASS, 12:38 UTC; Operativnyi ZSU, 12:40 UTC; Zakharova confirmation via TASS 13:09 UTC).
Ukraine-Georgia Ferry: Service between Chornomorsk (Ukraine) and Batumi (Georgia) resumed for the first time since Feb 2022, with two sailings in March (Mar 18, 26) and a third planned. Uses Ukrferry and UZ Cargo Poland. Vessel likely the "Kaunas Seaways" (car/rail/passenger ferry). Seen as important for regional economic ties (Dva Maiora citing Interfax-Ukraine, 13:02 UTC).
Chinese Nationals Involvement: Chinese MFA reiterated stance against citizens participating in conflicts and urged understanding of Beijing's role (RBC-Ukraina, 12:45 UTC). Russian milblogger (Kotsnews, 13:24 UTC) frames UA concerns as pressure on potential Trump administration regarding Russia-China ties.
II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Current Air Threats (As of 13:29 UTC):
Ballistic Missile Threat: Alert declared for most of Ukraine around 13:05 UTC due to threat from the southeast (Operativnyi ZSU). Explosion reported in Dnipro (13:06 UTC). Threat remains active (RBC-Ukraina, 13:16 UTC).
KAB/KAR Threat: Active launches reported towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF, 12:29 UTC, repeat launches 13:12 UTC). Active launches reported towards Kharkiv Oblast from the east (UA AF, 13:19 UTC). UGS (16:00 UTC) reports 23 RU air strikes dropping 34 KABs in Kursk Oblast border area today.
Strike UAV Threat: Enemy UAVs active in northwestern Sumy Oblast and eastern Chernihiv Oblast, moving west/southwest (UA AF, 12:55 UTC). Threat declared for Kyiv Oblast from northeast (UA AF, 13:23 UTC).
Tactical Aviation Threat: Active on the northeastern direction (UA AF, 12:26 UTC).
Air Alert Active: Zaporizhzhia Oblast (13:02 UTC). Widespread alert across Ukraine due to ballistic threat (13:05 UTC).
Recent Russian Strikes (Claims/Reports):
Dnipro: Major explosion reported ~13:06 UTC, likely ballistic missile impact. (See Section I). Multiple Russian sources report/show smoke plume.
Oleshnia (Kursk Direction): RU claim missile strike on UA 80th Air Assault Bde concentration & UAV CPs of 1st Tank/95th Air Assault Bdes, up to 45 UA KIA claimed (Colonelcassad, 12:36 UTC). Requires Verification.
Russian: Continued FPV use claimed against UA hardware (MoD Russia). Strike UAVs active towards Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv Oblasts. Ka-52M helicopter shown firing S-8 rockets at claimed UA strongpoint in Kursk border area (TASS, 13:19 UTC). BMP-3 deliveries with enhanced anti-drone protection noted (Apr 9).
Ukrainian: FPV use by 36th Bde (Basivka), 3rd SSO Regt. Ongoing operations in Kursk Oblast.
Information Environment / OPSEC:
Russian milblogger channel (WarGonzo, 12:51 UTC) warned Russian civilians against posting UAV strike aftermaths, claiming UA uses OSINT/AI for BDA, target refinement, and locating AD systems, potentially compensating for reduced US satellite intel access.
NATO Reconnaissance: Continued activity reported near Russian borders, specifically a Bombardier Challenger 650 Artemis SIGINT platform near Kaliningrad/Baltic states (Voenkor Kotenok, 12:32 UTC).
III. Key Frontline Developments (UGS Update 16:00 UTC & Other Sources)
Kursk/Sumy Border Zone (High Intensity): UA forces repelled 6 RU attacks within Kursk Oblast today. RU forces conducted 23 air strikes (34 KABs) and 207 artillery strikes (8 MLRS) in the border area (UGS). Ongoing fighting and RU force accumulation reported near Basivka/Loknya (Sumy) (DeepState). Conflicting claims regarding Zhuravka (Sumy) control persist. Intense fighting reported near Oleshnia/Hornal (Kursk), with RU strike claims.
Kharkiv Axis: UA forces repelled 2 RU assaults near Vovchansk (UGS). KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast ongoing (UA AF).
Kupyansk Axis: RU forces attempted 4 advances towards Pishchane and near Zahryzove. 3 clashes ongoing (UGS).
Lyman Axis: RU forces increased attacks to 8. Attacks near Nove, Yampolivka, and towards Dronivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka, Kotliarivka, Novomykhailivka. 4 clashes ongoing (UGS). Critical situation previously reported (Apr 9). RU claims (Colonelcassad, Apr 9) of advances near Torske, Nove, Katerynivka, Novoliubivka.
Siversk Axis:4 RU attacks today. 3 repelled. RU attempting advances towards Hryhorivka and near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske (UGS).
Kramatorsk Axis: UA forces repelled 3 RU attacks near Bila Hora and Kurdiumivka (UGS). Positional fighting continues near Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk Axis (High Intensity): RU forces attempted 16 advances near Druzhba and Toretsk. 3 clashes ongoing (UGS). RU sources (Colonelcassad, 13:03 UTC) claim advances NE of Druzhba (500m) and fighting N/NW of Toretsk. DeepState previously reported RU advances near Kalynove/Nadiivka (Apr 9).
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):27 RU attacks of varying intensity towards Oleksandropol, Serhiivka, Kotliarivka and near Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Bohdanivka. 22 attacks repelled (UGS). UA forces recently recovered positions near Kotlyne (DeepState, Apr 9).
Konstantynivka Direction: (See Section I for RU claims of advances near Arkhangelske, Kalynove, Zeleny Pillya, Valentynivka, Druzhba). Partially overlaps with Toretsk/Kramatorsk axes as defined by RU sources.
Novopavlivsk Axis: UA forces repelled 2 RU attacks near Kostiantynopil and towards Bohatyr. 1 attack ongoing (UGS).
Huliaipole Axis:3 clashes concluded near Pryvilne (UGS). RU air strikes reported on Novodarivka and Huliaipole (UGS).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): No active RU ground actions reported (UGS). Air alert active (13:02 UTC).
Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank): RU forces made 2 unsuccessful attempts to advance (UGS). Ukrainian bridgeheads maintained.
IV. Other Developments
Civilian Casualties & Hazards:
Hontarivka (Kharkiv Oblast): Civilian farmer (40M) seriously injured by unknown explosive device while ploughing field (Kharkiv OVA, 12:54 UTC).
Novaya Pogoshch (Bryansk Oblast, Russia): RU claims 4 civilians injured (incl. infant) in UA drone attack on car (TASS, 12:31 UTC).
POW/MIA Issues: Meeting held at UA Coordination HQ with families of 79th Air Assault Brigade POWs/MIAs, discussing interaction with state bodies, statistics, legislation on payments, communication with investigators, and DNA identification procedures (KoordShtab, 12:38 UTC, 13:04 UTC).
Personnel: Ukrainian General Staff denies rumors of Vadym Sukharevskyi (Commander of Unmanned Systems Forces) being moved to another position (command of an army corps was considered but did not happen). He remains Commander of USF (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 13:08 UTC; RBC-Ukraina, 13:09 UTC).
Logistics/Economy: Ukraine-Georgia ferry link resumes (Dva Maiora). Ukrainian Hryvnia depreciates slightly against USD/EUR (RBC-Ukraina, 12:42 UTC). Russia extends stay duration for foreign e-visa holders from 16 to 30 days (TASS, 13:01 UTC).
Internal Russian: Ukrainian national Vadym Chalyi sentenced to 16 years in Moscow for allegedly sending parcel bombs (non-detonated) to MoD colonels (ASTRA, 13:17 UTC). Kremlin dismisses reports of teenager's body displayed in Chechnya as unreliable (ASTRA, 12:59 UTC). Pro-Russian rapper fined 70k RUB for graffiti in Sudzha (Kursk) (TASS, 12:37 UTC; ASTRA, 12:53 UTC).
