Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 7, 2025, 15:45 UTC
(Analysis based on information received up to 15:45 UTC)
I. Overall Situation & Command Updates
Combat Intensity: The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 77 combat engagements as of 13:00 UTC. Intensity remains highest on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy Border Axes. Russian forces continue offensive operations employing Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), artillery, FPV drones, and ground assaults across multiple directions. Ukrainian forces maintain active defense, utilizing drone reconnaissance and strikes, counter-battery fire, and counter-intelligence efforts.
Diplomatic Front: Ukraine continues to pursue international action regarding the April 4th Kryvyi Rih strike, requesting urgent UN Security Council and OSCE meetings.
Regional Impact (Dnipropetrovsk): Russian forces conducted sustained artillery and kamikaze drone attacks throughout the day (Apr 7) against Nikopol district communities (Nikopol city, Marhanets, Pokrovsk, Myrivsk, Chervonohryhorivka) across the river from the Zaporizhzhia front. Four civilians were reported wounded (ambulatory care). Damage reported to infrastructure, enterprises, an office building, a church, private residences, and a truck.
II. Air & Missile Activity
(NEW - Missile Alert): As of 15:41 UTC, a missile danger alert was declared for Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian KAB Activity (Ongoing High Threat):
(14:49 UTC): Kharkiv OVA reported 4 KABs struck the Zolochiv community (Kharkiv Oblast) near Baranivka and Udy. Damage assessment ongoing.
Active KAB launches towards Sumy, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts reported by Russian tactical aviation between 13:36 and 14:26 UTC.
UGS Confirmed KAB Strikes (prior to 13:00 UTC): Sumy Oblast border areas; Huliaipole Axis locations.
Ukrainian Counter-Air/Drone Activity:
GUR Claim: Downing of 8 Russian reconnaissance UAVs (Zala, Supercam, Orlan) over Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts reported.
UA Claim (ARMIYA TV): Destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 SAM system via drone strike in Luhansk Oblast claimed by UA 412th Regiment.
Russian Air Defence Claims (RU MoD - Unverified): Claimed interception of 3 HIMARS rockets and 95 Ukrainian UAVs in the past 24 hours.
III. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS 13:00 UTC Report & Subsequent Claims/Reports up to 15:45 UTC)
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 30 Russian attempts since day start; 25 attacks repelled, 5 ongoing.
RU MoD Claims ("Center" Group - Unverified): Claimed improved positions and inflicted significant UA casualties/equipment losses.
UA Tactical Success Claim: "Flying Skull" unit reported successful drone strikes eliminating 9 Russian personnel (13:44 UTC).
RU Info Ops: Continued unverified claims regarding alleged foreign recruitment by UA 47th Mechanized Brigade.
200 m from Rozlyv towards Bohatyr; additionally claimed destruction of 2 UA UAV Command Posts in Bohatyr by RU 36th Motor Rifle Brigade.
300 m advance from Konstantynopil, expanding zone of control.
(Previous Claim - 15:09 UTC, Dnevnik Desantnika): RU 57th Bde advanced from Burlatske towards Shevchenko, cleared woods NE of village. Captured 2 UA strongpoints towards Komar.
(Ongoing): Claim exploration/capture of a former Ukrainian fortified complex near the LoC.
UA Tactical Success Claim (Kurakhove Direction): UA "Hostri Kartuzy" drone unit claimed destruction of a Russian assault group (14:04 UTC).
RU Needs: Previous reports indicated RU 5th Tank Brigade reliance on non-standard supply channels for essential equipment.
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod/Bryansk Border Region (UPDATED - RU Claims):
UGS Report (UA Ops in Kursk Oblast - 13:00 UTC): 6 Russian attacks repelled, 3 ongoing engagements. Heavy Russian artillery (162 strikes) and airstrikes (3 KABs) reported.
Abrams Tank Claim (Updated Detail): Multiple sources strongly reiterate hitting/destroying a Ukrainian M1 Abrams tank south of Turya, Sumy Oblast (Coordinates provided). Claim the tank hit a mine before being finished off by "Upyr" FPV drones (RU "Sever" Group). Additionally claim a BREM (Armored Recovery Vehicle) attempting recovery was also destroyed by FPV drones (Poddubny/Kotsnews, 15:39 UTC). Multiple videos shared.
Ground Situation (Belgorod Border): RU forces claim clearing Demidovka and Popovka of Ukrainian presence; claim UA forces hold positions in woods between villages under fire; claim repulsed UA attack attempt; claim intercepts indicate low UA morale/supply (Dva Mayora, 14:18 UTC).
RU MoD Claims ("Sever" Group): Claimed engagements and inflicting >85 UA KIA in past 24 hrs.
Bryansk Oblast Incident (RU Claim): Governor Bogomaz claims Ukrainian FPV drone strike killed 1 civilian in Lemeshovka, Sevsky district (14:40 UTC). Repeated by multiple RU sources.
UA DShV Context: Previous report detailed UA UAV ops in Kursk, including repelling an attack by alleged DPRK personnel (Dec 2024).
Kupyansk Axis:
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 1 Russian assault repelled near Zahryzove.
Significant Russian Claims (Unverified): Alleged destruction of a "GUR special forces" group; Alleged Ukrainian withdrawal from Shiykivka (Kharkiv Oblast).
Kharkiv Axis:
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): No Russian offensive actions reported.
(NEW - Missile Alert): See Section II.
UA Claim: A Russian company commander (Lt.) and 5 soldiers (7th Motor Rifle Regt) surrendered to UA 13th NG Bde "Khartia" near Kharkiv (Butusov Plus, 14:59 UTC).
Russian Analysis (Rybar): Describes Vovchansk as ruins/"grey zone"; claims RU forces hold north bank of Volcha river, attacking NE. Fighting in Tykhe.
Kramatorsk Axis:
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 1 ongoing Russian attempt near Kurdyumivka. 2 attacks near Chasiv Yar stopped.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia) (UPDATED - RU Claim):
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 3 Russian assaults stopped near Mali Shcherbaky.
Significant RU Claim/Assessment (Rybar/Arkhangel Spetsnaza - 14:33 UTC): Claim transfer of up to 1500 GUR personnel to Zaporizhzhia direction; assessed as potential UA offensive prep.
(NEW - RU Claim, Slivochniy Kapriz, 15:38 UTC): Positional fighting reported near Kamyanske. Russian forces claim to have advanced within the settlement of Stepove (north of Kamyanske, approx. coords 47.54444, 35.47286), securing new positions in the northern part. Claim RU forward positions are under Ukrainian fire.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank) (UPDATED - Civilian Impact):
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 1 RU assault repelled.
Civilian Impact (Nikopol Area - Across River): See Section I for details on daytime shelling/drone attacks and casualties in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
UA Tactical Success: Southern Defense Forces previously shared video of artillery destroying RU howitzers, ammo depot, personnel.
IV. Technological & Logistical Notes
Russian Drone Components: Ukrainian GUR analysis indicates newer Shahed/Geran-2 EW-resistant antennas rely less on US components, incorporating more Chinese and some Indian parts (e.g., Aura Semiconductor buffer, BMTI microchips).
Russian Equipment Needs: Previous reports highlighted RU 5th Tank Brigade's need for basic assault gear, communication, EW, and drones via non-standard channels.
Ukrainian Asset Seizure: Reports indicate Ukraine nationalized over 2 billion UAH worth of assets (bauxite/alumina) linked to Russian oligarch Deripaska.
