Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 7, 2025, 15:15 UTC
(Analysis based on information received up to 15:15 UTC)
I. Overall Situation & Command Updates
Combat Intensity: The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 77 combat engagements since the beginning of the day (as of 13:00 UTC). Intensity remains highest on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy Border Axes.
Russian Operations: Russian forces continue offensive operations across multiple axes, heavily utilizing Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), artillery, FPV drones, and ground assaults. The Russian Ministry of Defence (RU MoD) claims tactical improvements or advances via its "South," "Center," "East," and "Dnepr" groupings.
Ukrainian Operations: Ukrainian forces maintain active defense, repelling numerous attacks, conducting counter-battery fire, utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance and strikes, and executing counter-intelligence operations. International diplomatic efforts continue, with Ukraine requesting urgent UN Security Council and OSCE meetings regarding the April 4th Kryvyi Rih strike that killed 9 children.
Historical Context (Apr 4-6): Previous days saw high combat intensity (135 clashes on Apr 6, 116 on Apr 4), significant Russian air activity (Apr 6: 1 missile strike, 63 air strikes/104 KABs, 718 kamikaze drones, 4200+ shelling attacks), and major civilian casualty events, notably the Kryvyi Rih Iskander-M cluster munition strike (Apr 4: 18 KIA incl. 9 children, 61 WIA) followed by a Shahed attack (1 KIA, 5 WIA). A significant RU combined air assault occurred overnight Apr 5-6, with UA forces intercepting 53 of 132 tracked targets, but failing to intercept 5 of 6 Iskander-M missiles targeting Kyiv Oblast.
II. Air & Missile Activity
Russian KAB Activity (Ongoing Threat):
(14:49 UTC - New): Kharkiv OVA reports 4 KABs struck the Zolochiv community (Kharkiv Oblast) near Baranivka and Udy. No initial casualty reports; damage assessment underway.
(14:26 UTC): Active KAB launches reported towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts by Russian tactical aviation.
(14:07 UTC): Active KAB launches reported towards Kharkiv Oblast by Russian tactical aviation.
(13:36 UTC): Active KAB launches reported towards Donetsk Oblast by Russian tactical aviation.
GUR Claim (Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk): Ukrainian GUR reports downing 8 Russian reconnaissance UAVs (2x Zala, 5x Supercam, 1x Orlan) over Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts.
UA Claim (Luhansk Oblast - ARMIYA TV): UA 412th Regiment (Nemesis) claims destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 SAM system via drone strike in Luhansk Oblast.
Russian Air Defence Claims (RU MoD - Unverified): Claimed interception of 3 HIMARS rockets and 95 Ukrainian UAVs in the past 24 hours.
III. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS 13:00 UTC Report & Subsequent Claims/Reports up to 15:15 UTC)
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 30 Russian attempts since day start; 25 attacks repelled, 5 ongoing.
RU MoD Claims ("Center" Group - Unverified): Claim improved positions; inflicted losses on elements of UA 3 Mech, 2 Inf, 1 Air Assault, 1 Sturm Bdes; claimed up to 440 UA KIA, destroyed 1 tank, 3 BBMs (incl. MaxxPro), 7 vehicles, 3 artillery pieces, 1 ammo depot.
UA Tactical Success Claim: "Flying Skull" unit reports successful drone strikes eliminating 9 Russian personnel (Sternenko, 13:44 UTC).
Force Composition Claim (RU Sources - Unverified): Multiple sources (incl. Voenkor Kotenok, 14:29 UTC) continue alleging the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade is actively recruiting Colombian mercenaries, potentially via crowdfunding initiated by unit members.
RU MoD Claims ("Center" Group - Unverified): Claimed inflicting losses on UA brigades.
RU Source Claim (Svatove/Kreminna area - Unverified): Alleged Ukrainian drone attacked a truck transporting humanitarian aid; munition reportedly penetrated windshield but failed to detonate (Mash, 14:22 UTC).
Historical Context (Apr 6): DeepState assessment (cited by RU sources) indicated deteriorating UA situation on Nove-Katerynivka-Nevske line due to ineffective resource use, poor SA, and Russian advantages. RU forces claimed advances west of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubovka and near Nevske/Nove.
RU MoD Claims ("South" Group - Unverified): Claim improved tactical position; inflicted losses on elements of 7 UA Mech Bdes; claimed up to 300 UA KIA, destroyed 2 BBMs (incl. M113), 22 vehicles, 1 EW station, 2 ammo depots, 2 supply depots.
RU MoD Claims ("East" Group - Unverified): Claimed continued advance; inflicted losses on elements of 2 Mech, 1 Mtn Sturm Bdes; claimed up to 140 UA KIA, destroyed 1 BBM, 2 vehicles, 3 artillery pieces (incl. Polish Krab SPG, M777 howitzer).
(New - 15:09 UTC): RU 57th Bde advanced from Burlatske towards Shevchenko, cleared woods NE of village. Captured 2 UA strongpoints towards Komar (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Reinforced claims of securing strongpoints near Rozlyv, controlling height near Bohatyr, advances near Preobrazhenka, south of Sribne, north of Burlatske.
Claim exploration/capture of a former Ukrainian fortified position/bunker complex near the LoC, showing recovered items (munitions, food, effects) (Colonelcassad, 14:26 UTC).
UA Tactical Success Claim (Kurakhove Direction): UA "Hostri Kartuzy" drone unit claims destruction of a Russian assault group several kilometers from the LoC (Operativnyi ZSU, 14:04 UTC).
RU Needs: Previous fundraising appeal for RU 5th Tank Brigade highlights needs for assault units (body armor, Starlink, radios, portable EW, drones, vehicle), indicating reliance on non-standard supply (Colonelcassad, 14:05 UTC).
Historical Context (Apr 4): DeepState confirmed RU advance in Rozlyv. RU sources shared images of allegedly captured French VAB APC and UA Kozak near Kurakhove.
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod/Bryansk Border Region:
UGS Report (UA Ops in Kursk Oblast - 13:00 UTC): 6 Russian attacks repelled, 3 ongoing engagements. Heavy Russian artillery (162 strikes) and airstrikes (3 KABs) reported.
Abrams Tank Claim (Heavily Reinforced): Multiple sources (RVvoenkor, Arkhanhel Spetsnaza, Kotsnews, Старше Эдды, TASS, Colonelcassad, Dva Mayora, RU MoD) reiterate and elaborate on hitting/destroying a Ukrainian M1 Abrams tank south of Turya, Sumy Oblast (Coordinates: 50.881531, 35.361891). Claim the tank hit a mine before being finished off by "Upyr" FPV drones (RU "Sever" Group, Старше Эдды 14:35 UTC). Claim a BREM attempting recovery was also destroyed by FPV drones (Kotsnews 14:28 UTC). Videos shared purportedly showing the damaged tank and strikes (TASS 14:24 UTC, Kotsnews 14:28 UTC, Старше Эдды 14:35 UTC, Colonelcassad 14:42 UTC, RU MoD 15:05 UTC). Claim these drones recently destroyed 4+ tanks, a Bradley, and 2 BREMs in the area.
Ground Situation (Belgorod Border - Reinforced): RU forces claim clearing Demidovka and Popovka of Ukrainian presence (Dva Mayora 14:18 UTC). Claim UA forces hold positions in woods between villages under artillery/drone fire. Claim repulsed UA attack attempt. Claim radio intercepts indicate low UA morale/supply issues (Dva Mayora).
RU MoD Claims ("Sever" Group - Unverified): Claimed engagement with elements of UA Mechanized, Tank, 3x Air Assault, and TO brigades near Hornal, Huyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk Obl.); strikes on UA forces in Sumy border settlements. Claimed >85 Ukrainian KIA, 1 BBM, 2 vehicles destroyed in the past 24 hours.
Bryansk Oblast Incident (RU Claim): Governor Bogomaz claims a Ukrainian FPV drone strike killed 1 civilian in Lemeshovka, Sevsky district (14:40 UTC). Claim repeated by ASTRA (14:50 UTC), TASS (14:52 UTC), WarGonzo (14:55 UTC).
UA DShV Report (Historical Context): Report details award for UAV operator involved in Kursk operations (recon, strike, drone resupply), mentioning his unit repelled an attack by ~40 DPRK personnel in mid-December 2024.
Kupyansk Axis:
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 1 Russian assault repelled near Zahryzove.
Significant Russian Claim (RU Source - Unverified): Alleged destruction of an "elite GUR special forces" group attempting a counterattack on this axis; claims RU "Zapad" group scouts burned UA armor first, then eliminated assault groups (RVvoenkor / Operatsiya Z, 14:28 UTC).
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): No Russian offensive actions reported.
UA Claim (New - 14:59 UTC): A Russian company commander (Lt.) and 5 soldiers from the 7th Motor Rifle Regiment surrendered to Ukraine's 13th National Guard Brigade "Khartia" near Kharkiv after their battalion was reportedly decimated over months of fighting (Butusov Plus).
Russian Analysis (RU Source - Rybar): Describes Vovchansk as ruins/"grey zone"; claims RU forces hold positions north of Volcha river and are attacking NE towards the river. Fighting ongoing in Tykhe.
Kramatorsk Axis:
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 1 ongoing Russian attempt near Kurdyumivka. 2 attacks near Chasiv Yar stopped.
Historical Context (Apr 6): DeepState confirmed RU advance near Zapadnyi (Western) microdistrict of Chasiv Yar. RU sources claimed clearing the Kanal microdistrict.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 3 Russian assaults stopped near Mali Shcherbaky.
Significant RU Claim/Assessment (Rybar/Arkhangel Spetsnaza - 14:33 UTC): Sources report transfer of up to 1500 GUR personnel (incl. "Artan", "Pirates/Shaman", potentially "Freedom of Russia" & "Kraken") to Zaporizhzhia direction, occupying positions on various sections. "Kraken" reportedly active near Kamyanske since early 2025. Assessed as potential UA preparation for offensive action, possibly combined with Black Sea USV operations (noting ongoing UA USV activity/testing).
Historical Context (Apr 4): DeepState confirmed RU advance in Mali Shcherbaky.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank):
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 1 RU assault repelled.
UA Tactical Success (Southern Defense Forces - 14:44 UTC): Video evidence shows UA artillery destroying RU Msta-B and D-30 howitzers, a field ammo depot, and personnel in the southern operational zone.
IV. Ukrainian Capabilities & Activities
Drone Dominance:
UGS highlights increasing role, claiming over 77,000 enemy targets hit/
