Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 7, 2025, 14:45 UTC
(Analysis based on information received up to 14:45 UTC)
I. Overall Situation & Command Updates
The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 77 combat engagements since the beginning of the day (as of 13:00 UTC). Combat intensity remains highest on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy Border Axes.
Russian forces persist with offensive operations, heavily utilizing Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), artillery, FPV drones, and ground assaults across multiple axes. Russian Ministry of Defence (RU MoD) claims tactical improvements or advances on multiple axes ("South", "Center", "East", "Dnepr" groups).
Ukrainian forces maintain active defense, repelling numerous attacks, conducting counter-battery fire, utilizing drones for reconnaissance and strikes, and executing counter-intelligence operations.
Ukrainian Capabilities & Activity:
The Ukrainian General Staff highlights the increasing role of drones, claiming over 77,000 enemy targets were hit or destroyed by various drone types in March 2025 (a 10% increase from February).
Reports indicate the Ukrainian Armed Forces have received a new ground robotic complex (UGV), the D-21-12R, equipped with a machine gun for observation, patrol, and fire support roles.
Training activities continue, with the 153rd Mechanized Brigade's anti-tank units reported training in the Southern direction.
II. Air & Missile Activity
Russian KAB Activity:
(14:26 UTC): Active KAB launches reported towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts by Russian tactical aviation. Threat ongoing.
(14:07 UTC): Active KAB launches reported towards Kharkiv Oblast by Russian tactical aviation. Threat ongoing.
(13:36 UTC): Active KAB launches reported towards Donetsk Oblast by Russian tactical aviation. Threat ongoing for frontline regions.
UGS Confirmed KAB Strikes (as of 13:00 UTC): Sumy Oblast border areas (Turia, Uhroidy, Myropilske, Prokhody - total 3 KABs); Huliaipole Axis (Voskresenka, Zelene Pole, Novopil, Malynivka, Huliaipole).
Ukrainian Counter-Air/Drone Activity:
GUR Claim (Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk): Ukrainian GUR reports downing 8 Russian reconnaissance UAVs (2x Zala, 5x Supercam, 1x Orlan) over Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts.
UA Claim (Luhansk Oblast - ARMIYA TV): UA 412th Regiment (Nemesis) claims destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 SAM system via drone strike in Luhansk Oblast.
Russian Air Defence Claims (RU MoD - Unverified): Claimed interception of 3 HIMARS rockets and 95 Ukrainian UAVs in the past 24 hours.
III. Key Frontline Developments (Based on UGS 13:00 UTC Report & Subsequent Claims/Reports up to 14:45 UTC)
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 30 Russian attempts since day start; 25 attacks repelled, 5 ongoing.
RU MoD Claims ("Center" Group - Unverified): Claim improved positions; inflicted losses on elements of UA 3 Mech, 2 Inf, 1 Air Assault, 1 Sturm Bdes; claimed up to 440 UA KIA, destroyed 1 tank, 3 BBMs (incl. MaxxPro), 7 vehicles, 3 artillery pieces, 1 ammo depot.
UA Tactical Success Claim: "Flying Skull" unit reports successful drone strikes eliminating 9 Russian personnel (Sternenko, 13:44 UTC).
Force Composition Claim (RU Sources - Unverified): Multiple sources continue alleging the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade is actively recruiting Colombian mercenaries, potentially via crowdfunding efforts initiated by unit members.
RU MoD Claims ("South" Group - Unverified): Claim improved tactical position; inflicted losses on elements of 7 UA Mech Bdes; claimed up to 300 UA KIA, destroyed 2 BBMs (incl. M113), 22 vehicles, 1 EW station, 2 ammo depots, 2 supply depots.
RU MoD Claims ("East" Group - Unverified): Claimed continued advance into UA defenses; inflicted losses on elements of 2 Mech, 1 Mtn Sturm Bdes; claimed up to 140 UA KIA, destroyed 1 BBM, 2 vehicles, 3 artillery pieces (incl. Polish Krab SPG, M777 howitzer).
UA Tactical Success Claim (Kurakhove Direction): UA "Hostri Kartuzy" drone unit claims destruction of a Russian assault group several kilometers from the LoC (Operativnyi ZSU, 14:04 UTC). Visuals show aftermath.
Reinforced claims of securing strongpoints near Rozlyv, controlling height near Bohatyr, advances near Preobrazhenka, south of Sribne, north of Burlatske.
Claim exploration/capture of a former Ukrainian fortified position/bunker complex, showcasing recovered items including munitions (RPG charges, AT mines inferred), food, and personal effects (Colonelcassad).
RU Needs: Previous fundraising appeal for RU 5th Tank Brigade highlights needs for assault units (body armor, Starlink, radios, portable EW, various drones, vehicle), indicating reliance on non-standard supply and specific equipment types (Colonelcassad, 14:05 UTC).
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod/Bryansk Border Region:
UGS Report (UA Ops in Kursk Oblast - 13:00 UTC): 6 Russian attacks repelled, 3 ongoing engagements. Heavy Russian artillery (162 strikes) and airstrikes (3 KABs) reported.
Abrams Tank Claim (Reinforced): Multiple sources (RVvoenkor, Arkhanhel Spetsnaza, Kotsnews, Старше Эдды, TASS, Colonelcassad) reiterate and elaborate on the claim of hitting/destroying a Ukrainian M1 Abrams tank south of Turya, Sumy Oblast (Coordinates: 50.881531, 35.361891). Claim the tank hit a mine before being finished off by "Upyr" FPV drones (RU "Sever" Group). Claim a BREM attempting recovery was also destroyed by FPV drones. Videos shared purportedly showing the damaged tank and strikes. Claim these drones have recently destroyed 4+ tanks, a Bradley, and 2 BREMs in the area.
Ground Situation (Belgorod Border - Reinforced): RU forces claim clearing Demidovka and Popovka of Ukrainian presence. Claim UA forces hold positions in woods between villages under artillery/drone fire. Claim repulsed UA attack attempt. Claim radio intercepts indicate low UA morale/supply issues.
RU MoD Claims ("Sever" Group - Unverified): Claimed engagement with elements of UA Mechanized, Tank, 3x Air Assault, and TO brigades near Hornal, Huyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk Obl.); strikes on UA forces in multiple Sumy border settlements. Claimed >85 Ukrainian KIA, 1 BBM, 2 vehicles destroyed in the past 24 hours on this direction.
Bryansk Oblast Incident (RU Claim): Governor claims a Ukrainian FPV drone strike killed 1 civilian in Lemeshovka, Sevsky district (AV Bogomaz, 14:40 UTC).
UA DShV Report (Historical Context): Report details award for UAV operator involved in Kursk operations (recon, strike, drone resupply), mentioning his unit repelled an attack by ~40 DPRK personnel in mid-December 2024.
Kupyansk Axis:
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 1 Russian assault repelled near Zahryzove.
Significant Russian Claim (RU Source - Unverified): Alleged destruction of an "elite GUR special forces" group attempting a counterattack on this axis; claims RU "Zapad" group scouts burned UA armor first, then eliminated assault groups (RVvoenkor, 14:28 UTC).
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): No Russian offensive actions reported.
Russian Analysis (RU Source - Rybar): Describes Vovchansk as ruins/"grey zone"; claims RU forces hold positions north of Volcha river and are attacking NE towards the river. Fighting ongoing in Tykhe.
Kramatorsk Axis:
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 1 ongoing Russian attempt near Kurdyumivka. 2 attacks near Chasiv Yar stopped.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
UGS Report (13:00 UTC): 3 Russian assaults stopped near Mali Shcherbaky.
