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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-07 10:17:29Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-07 09:47:14Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 7, 2025, 10:15 UTC

(Analysis based on information up to 10:15 UTC)

I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments

  • Combat Intensity: Remains High, particularly on the Lyman, Pokrovsk, Toretsk Axes, and the Kursk Border.
    • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest intensity (53 clashes reported Apr 6; RU sources claim capture of Lysivka Apr 7).
    • Lyman Axis: High intensity (22 clashes reported Apr 6; RU MoD claims capture of Katerynivka Apr 7; UA sources report deteriorating situation on Nove-Katerynivka-Nevske line).
    • Kursk Border: High intensity (35 clashes reported Apr 6; RU sources claim clearing areas between Huyevo/Oleshnia Apr 7).
    • Toretsk Axis: Significant intensity (18 clashes reported Apr 6).
  • Territorial Control Changes & Ground Activity (Recent Claims/Updates):
    • Lyman Axis:
      • RU MoD Claim (Apr 7): Liberation of Katerynivka (DNR, W of Svatove). Corroborated by multiple RU sources.
      • UA Assessment (DeepState via Tsaplienko, Apr 7): Situation deteriorating on Nove-Katerynivka-Nevske line. RU pressure on Katerynivka; RU success reported near Nevske and Nove. RU assaults towards Novomykhailivka.
      • UA Assessment (Military Sources via Tsaplienko, Apr 7): Reports of RU force buildup near Lyman, potentially aiming to sever logistics between Kharkiv/Donetsk Oblasts.
      • UA Action (63rd Mech Bde via Tsaplienko, Apr 7): Repelled RU assault (14 RU KIA confirmed).
    • Pokrovsk Axis:
      • RU Claim (Colonelcassad, Apr 7): Full capture of Lysivka (S of Pokrovsk).
      • RU Claim (Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 7): RU forces advancing SW of Nadezhdynka, nearly controlling Troitske.
      • RU Claim (MoD Russia/RVvoenkor, Apr 6-7): Published videos claiming liberation/clearing of Uspenivka.
    • Kursk/Sumy Border:
      • RU Claim (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 7): Forest belts between Huyevo and Oleshnia cleared; UA presence claimed limited to Oleshnia/Gornal vicinity. Alleged UA units identified (92nd Assault Bde, 241st/129th TerrDef Bdes).
      • RU Claim (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 7): Potential redeployment of UA 501st Marine Bn (36th Bde) from Basivka (Sumy) to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
      • RU Correction (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 7): Demidovka (border area) not yet captured, fighting ongoing.
      • UA Claim (RBC-Ukraina/SBS/78 ODSHP, Apr 7): Destruction/damage of three Russian Buk SAM systems (1x M2 TELAR/PZU destroyed, 2x M3 PU damaged) in Kursk Oblast by drones within 12 hours.
    • Novopavlivsk/Vremivka Axis:
      • RU Claim (WarGonzo/Rybаr, Apr 7): Advance from Burlatske towards Shevchenko, reaching outskirts.
  • Russian Strike Activity: Extensive strikes continue.
    • UGS Report (Apr 6): 1 missile strike (23 missiles claimed), 90 aviation strikes (158 KABs), >5600 shelling attacks (149 MLRS), 2112 kamikaze drones.
    • Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Attacks (RU MoD/Governors/Dva Mayora, Apr 6-7): Confirmed 6 UA UAV attacks targeting energy infrastructure (power lines/substations) over the past 24 hours in Rostov, Voronezh, Kherson, Bryansk Oblasts, and DNR, causing damage and outages.
  • Claimed Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia/Occupied Territory:
    • Buk SAM Systems (Kursk Oblast, Apr 7): Successful drone strikes claimed against 3 Buk systems (see Kursk/Sumy Border).
    • Energy Infrastructure (Apr 6-7): 6 attacks confirmed by RU sources (see Russian Strike Activity).
    • UAV Interceptions (RU MoD, Apr 6-7): Claimed 19 UA UAVs intercepted/destroyed overnight; 95 UAVs claimed downed over 24h (Apr 7 briefing).
    • HIMARS Interceptions (RU MoD, Apr 7): Claimed 3 HIMARS rockets intercepted over 24h.
  • Claimed Personnel/Equipment Losses:
    • RU Losses (UGS, Apr 6): ~+1350 personnel; 13 tanks, 25 AFVs, 31 artillery, etc.
    • RU Losses (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 6): 53 personnel (25 KIA); 2 arty, 6 vehicles, 6 spec eq, 1 EW, 49 UAVs destroyed/damaged. 65 shelters destroyed.
    • UA Losses (RU Claims):
      • RU MoD (Apr 7 briefing): ~440 (Center), >85 (Belgorod), >300+22 veh (South), ~215 (West), ~70 (Dnipro), ~140 (East).
      • Narodnaya Militsiya DNR (Apr 7): M113, Kozak, Humvee destroyed by FPVs.
    • UA Claims (Specific):
      • 44th Artillery Bde (Apr 7): Destroyed RU D-30, Msta-B howitzers, ammo depot via counter-battery.
      • 11th NGU Bde "Samosud" (Apr 7): Destroyed RU quad bike+crew, 2x AFV, truck, Tigr/VPK Ural, UAZ, motorcycle via FPVs (Zaporizhzhia).
  • Technology & Capabilities:
    • RU Drone Components (GUR via Tsaplienko, Apr 7): Analysis of downed Shahed/Geran reveals increased Chinese components (esp. main CRP anti-jamming chip, transceivers, generators) and first detected Indian component (clock buffer). Fewer Western chips found (2x US). Suggests sanctions impact/adaptation.
    • UA Training: 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade conducting night combat training (General Staff, Apr 7).
  • Significant Incident Aftermath:
    • Kryvyi Rih (Apr 4 Strike): Casualty figures confirmed: 20 KIA (9 children), 75 WIA (Vilkul/Sternenko, Apr 7).
    • Kherson Oblast (Apr 7 Shelling): Pregnant woman and 2-year-old son rescued from rubble after house collapse, hospitalized with blast/head injuries (Sternenko/OVA/ASTRA).
  • War Crimes Investigation:
    • UA PGO (Apr 7): Suspicion notice served to RU soldier (Akhmat unit, 71st MRR) for alleged sexual violence against minor in occupied Mykolaiv region (Nov 2022).

II. Frontline Updates (Select Axes)

  • Kursk/Sumy Border (Incl. Russian Territory):
    • Intensity: High (35 RU attacks repelled Apr 6 - UGS).
    • RU Activity/Claims: Claim clearing forest belts between Huyevo and Oleshnia. UA presence claimed limited near Oleshnia/Gornal. Push towards Oleshnia ongoing. Claim potential UA 501st Marine Bn redeployment from Basivka area. Correction: Demidovka not yet captured. RU FPV strike claimed on UA armored vehicle near Gornal (Apr 7).
    • Ukrainian Activity: Claimed destruction/damage of 3 RU Buk SAM systems via drones (Apr 7). Active defense noted.
  • Kharkiv Axis:
    • 2 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk / towards Kamianka (UGS/OTU Kharkiv Apr 6).
    • OTU Kharkiv Zone (Apr 6): 5 RU aviation strikes (10 KABs), 77 kamikaze drones, 603 shelling incidents. UA inflicted 53 RU personnel losses, destroyed/damaged 64 RU equipment pieces (incl. 49 UAVs), destroyed 65 shelters.
  • Kupyansk Axis:
    • 8 RU attacks repelled near Pishchane, Nova Kruhliakivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove (UGS Apr 6). RU sources claim advance in Zapadne and W. of Oskil (RVvoenkor).
  • Lyman Axis:
    • Intensity: High (22 RU attacks Apr 6 - UGS). Situation deteriorating for UA forces on Nove-Katerynivka-Nevske line (DeepState).
    • RU Activity/Claims: Katerynivka liberated (RU MoD, Apr 7). Pressure on Katerynivka confirmed by UA sources. Success claimed near Nevske and Nove. Assaults towards Novomykhailivka. Force buildup near Lyman reported. Attacks repelled near Novoiehorivka, Nove, Kolodiazi, Yampolivka, Nadiia, Torske, Ridkodub (UGS Apr 6).
    • UA Activity: 63rd Mech Bde repelled assault (14 RU KIA).
  • Siversk Axis:
    • 2 RU attacks repelled near Bilohorivka (UGS Apr 6).
  • Kramatorsk Axis:
    • No active RU offensive actions reported by UGS for Apr 6. RU claims UMPK strikes near Kramatorsk/Druzhkivka (Apr 6 night).
  • Toretsk Axis:
    • Intensity: High (18 RU attacks Apr 6 - UGS).
    • RU Activity: Attacks repelled near Dachne, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka. RU sources claim advances N. of Druzhba near canal (Rybаr).
  • Pokrovsk Axis:
    • Intensity: Highest (53 RU attacks repelled Apr 6 - UGS).
    • RU Activity/Claims: Claim full capture of Lysivka (Apr 7). Claim advance SW of Nadezhdynka, near control of Troitske (Apr 7). Claim liberation/clearing of Uspenivka (Apr 6-7). Attacks repelled near numerous settlements (UGS Apr 6). Heavy fighting near Udachne, Nadezhdynka, Bohdanivka.
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk / Vremivka Axis:
    • Intensity: Significant (9 RU assaults repelled Apr 6 - UGS).
    • RU Activity/Claims: Advance towards Shevchenko from Burlatske claimed (Apr 7). Confirmed control of Uspenivka. Heavy fighting reported. FPV strikes by 14th Spetsnaz Bde claimed.
  • Huliaipole Axis:
    • 3 RU attacks repelled near Pryvilne and Vilne Pole (UGS/SDF Apr 6). Huliaipole hit by KAB strike (SDF).
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
    • 4 RU attacks repelled near
Previous (2025-04-07 09:47:14Z)

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