Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 7, 2025, 09:46 UTC
(Analysis based on information up to 09:46 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains High, particularly on the Eastern Front (Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk Axes) and the Kursk Border. UGS reported 165 combat clashes on April 6.
OTU Kharkiv Report (Apr 6): 5 aviation strikes (10 KABs), 77 kamikaze drones, 603 shelling incidents within their operational zone.
RU MoD Claims (Apr 6-7): Extensive use of UMPK (glide bombs), MLRS, and drones (Geran type) across Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Specific targets claimed include logistics centers (Sumy, Brovary), repair bases (Kyiv - Darnytsia), and drone production facilities (Kyiv - Forum Plaza).
RU MoD Claims (Apr 7): Alleged 6 Ukrainian attacks targeted Russian energy infrastructure (TEK) in Rostov, Voronezh, Kherson, Bryansk Oblasts, and DNR over the past 24 hours using UAVs.
Territorial Control Changes & Ground Activity:
Ukrainian Position: Maintaining defensive lines, repelling numerous attacks. Successful localized counterattacks noted (ISW). OTU Kharkiv reports repelling 2 RU attempts near Vovchansk and towards Kamianka (Apr 6).
Russian Claims/Activity (Apr 6-7):
Novopavlivsk/Vremivka (RU Sources - WarGonzo/Rybаr, Apr 7): Claimed advance from Burlatske towards Shevchenko, reaching outskirts. Rybаr detailed March gains (Dniproenerhiia, Pryvilne, E. Vilne Pole, near Vesele/Fedorivka, Uspenivka) aiming for Komar/Shevchenko. UGS reported repelling 9 assaults near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil, Vesele, Burlatske (Apr 6). Heavy fighting near Udachne, Nadezhdynka, Bohdanivka.
Kursk Oblast (RU Sources - WarGonzo/TASS/Arkhangel/Kotsnews, Apr 7): Claimed advance towards Oleshnia, clearing ops in Huyevo completed. UA active defense near Oleshnia/Gornal sector. RU striking UA supply routes; UA using artillery, MLRS, FPVs. RU FPV drone strike claimed on UA armored vehicle near Gornal.
Kursk/Sumy Border (RU Sources - Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 7):Correction: Claims RU forces have not yet taken Demidovka (location unclear, likely Sumy/Belgorod direction); fighting ongoing. This contradicts some earlier RU claims.
Kupyansk (RU Sources - RVvoenkor, Apr 7): Claimed advance in Zapadne settlement and west of Oskil River. UGS repelled 8 attacks near Pishchane, Nova Kruhliakivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove (Apr 6).
Toretsk (RU Sources - Rybаr, Apr 7): Claimed RU 4th OMSBde expanded control N. of Druzhba near canal. UGS repelled 18 attacks near Dachne, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka (Apr 6).
Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv/Huliaipole) (RU Sources - Dnevnik Desantnika/WarGonzo, Apr 7): Fighting ongoing near Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske. RU claims artillery/drone strikes on UA positions in treelines N. of Mali Shcherbaky. RU drone strike claimed on UA bunker near Novodanylivka.
Rate of Advance: ISW analysis suggests a decreasing rate of RU territorial gains from Nov '24 to Mar '25, partly due to successful UA counterattacks.
Significant Attack Aftermath:
Kryvyi Rih (Apr 4 Strike - Update Apr 7): Casualty figures remain 20 KIA (9 children), 75 WIA. 33 remain hospitalized (4 children), 18 in severe condition (2 children) (Vilkul/Lysak via RBC-Ukraina/ASTRA).
Kherson Oblast (Apr 7 - Sternenko/OVA): Russian shelling caused building collapse, trapping a pregnant woman and her 2-year-old son under rubble. Both rescued and hospitalized with blast injuries/head trauma.
Kursk Oblast (Apr 7 - RBC-Ukraina/SBS/78 ODSHP): Claimed destruction/damage of three Russian Buk SAM systems within 12 hours by Ukrainian drones (413th Btn "Raid" + 78th ODSHP "Dzhmil"). Specifically: 1x Buk-M2 Transporter Erector Launcher and Radar (TELAR)/Loader (PZU) destroyed by FPV drone (detonation observed); 2x Buk-M3 Launchers (PU) damaged (radars hit).
Energy Infrastructure (Apr 6-7 - RU MoD Claim): 6 attacks alleged on TEK facilities in Rostov, Voronezh, Kherson, Bryansk Oblasts and DNR using UAVs targeting power lines/substations.
Dnipro Corruption Probe (UA PGO, Apr 7): Director of a Dnipro city council department suspected of embezzling UAH 4.4 million (~$110k) by overpaying for quad bikes procured for military units under the city's territorial defense support program. Investigation ongoing.
Information Operations:
RU sources highlight discovery of flags for potential puppet "republics" (Odesa, Kherson, etc.).
RU sources continue justification narratives for civilian area strikes.
UA sources highlight alleged poor RU tactical medicine.
RU sources (Mash) report DDoS attack by alleged SBU-linked hackers ("Team One Fist") on "Luganet" ISP in occupied territories, disrupting service.
II. Air & Missile Activity Updates (as of 09:46 UTC Apr 7)
Current Air Threats (09:12 UTC): Threat of aviation weapon use declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UA AF).
RU Claims (Apr 6-7 AM - Colonelcassad): Persistent UMPK strikes reported across Sumy, Donetsk (Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka), Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv (Zolochiv, Kozacha Lopan) Oblasts. Specific targets claimed include Yunakivka, Velyka Pysarivka, Krasnopillia (Sumy).
UAV Activity (Past 24h):
Russian UAV Use:2112 kamikaze drones used across Ukraine (UGS Apr 6). 77 kamikaze drones in OTU Kharkiv zone (Apr 6). Southern Front: ~320 kamikaze drones, >80 grenade drops (SDF Apr 6). Geran-type drones claimed used against Izium, Kramatorsk area (RU Sources Apr 6). FPV drones used in Nikopol District (Vilkul Apr 6-7), Ivashky (Syniehubov Apr 6), and claimed near Novodanylivka (WarGonzo Apr 7). Claimed FPV strikes near Gornal (Kursk Obl., Kotsnews Apr 7).
Ukrainian UAV Use (Claims): 19 UAVs intercepted by RU MoD (overnight Apr 6-7). 6 attacks on RU energy infrastructure claimed by RU MoD (Apr 6-7). Successful strikes claimed on 3 Buk SAMs in Kursk Oblast (RBC-Ukraina Apr 7). 'Baba Yaga' type drone claimed downed near Hola Prystan (RU Sources Apr 7). Heavy UA drones ('Baba Yaga' variants - bomber, recon, relay) claimed targeted by RU FPVs on Kursk border (Arkhangel Spetsnaza Apr 7).
Ukrainian UAV Losses (OTU Kharkiv): 49 UAVs lost (destroyed/damaged) on Apr 6.
III. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Updates (Select Axes - Based on UGS & other sources)
RU Activity/Claims: Push towards Oleshnia, clearing Huyevo claimed completed. UA active defense near Oleshnia/Gornal. RU striking UA supply routes (RU Sources). RU claims FPV drone destroyed UA armored vehicle near Gornal (Kotsnews). RU source corrects earlier report: Demidovkanot yet captured, fighting ongoing (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Ukrainian Activity: Claimed destruction/damage of 3 RU Buk SAM systems in Kursk Oblast by drone strikes (RBC-Ukraina). Claimed targeting of RU heavy drones (bombers, recon, relays) by RU FPV crews (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Kharkiv Axis:
2 clashes near Vovchansk / towards Kamianka repelled (UGS/OTU Kharkiv Apr 6). RU strikes/shelling across region.
8 RU attacks repelled near Pishchane, Nova Kruhliakivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove (UGS Apr 6). RU sources claim advance in Zapadne and W. of Oskil (RVvoenkor).
Lyman Axis:
Intensity: High (22 RU attacks Apr 6 - UGS).
RU Activity: Attempts near Novoiehorivka, Nove, Kolodiazi, Yampolivka, Nadiia and towards Novomykhailivka, Novoserhiivka, Torske, Ridkodub.
Siversk Axis:
2 RU attacks repelled near Bilohorivka (UGS Apr 6).
Kramatorsk Axis:
No active RU offensive actions reported by UGS for Apr 6. RU claims UMPK strikes near Kramatorsk/Druzhkivka (Apr 6 night).
Toretsk Axis:
Intensity: High (18 RU attacks Apr 6 - UGS).
RU Activity: Attacks near Dachne, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka. RU sources claim advances N. of Druzhba near canal (Rybаr).
RU Activity: Attacks repelled near Sukha Balka, Kalynove, Udachne, Sribne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Bohdanivka, Vodiane Druhe, Kotlyne, Uspenivka. RU claim advances SW of Nadezhdynka, nearly controlling Troitske (Voenkor Kotenok). RU sources report heavy fighting near Udachne, Nadezhdynka, Bohdanivka (Rybаr). RVVoenkor/MoD Russia published videos claiming liberation/clearing of Uspenovka, showing small group assaults with UAV/arty support, use of motorcycles/buggies.
RU Activity/Claims: RU sources claim advance towards Shevchenko from Burlatske; confirm control of Uspenivka; detail March gains aiming for Komar/Shevchenko. Heavy fighting near Udachne, Nadezhdynka, Bohdanivka. Claimed FPV strikes by 14th Spetsnaz Bde on UA personnel/vehicles (Voin DV).
Huliaipole Axis:
3 RU attacks repelled near Pryvilne and Vilne Pole (UGS/SDF Apr 6). Huliaipole hit by KAB strike (SDF).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
4 RU attacks repelled near Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske (UGS/SDF Apr 6). KAB strikes on Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka (SDF). RU sources claim fighting ongoing N. of Shcherbaky, UA counterattacks repelled. Fighting in treelines N. of Mali Shcherbaky after RU pushed UA out of village; RU striking UA groups with arty/drones. Fighting E. of Kamyanske, RU claims destroyed UA BMP (Dnevnik Desantnika). RU drone strike claimed on UA bunker near Novodanylivka (WarGonzo).
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank):
1 RU attack repelled (UGS/SDF Apr 6). Heavy RU shelling/drone activity. Civilian casualties from shelling reported in Kherson city (1 KIA, 5 WIA - SDF Apr 6; 1 pregnant woman, 1 child WIA - Sternenko/OVA Apr 7). RU claim downing UA 'Baba Yaga' drone near Hola Prystan.
IV. Naval Situation (as of 06:00 UTC Apr 7 - UA Navy)
Black Sea: No Russian warships present.
Azov Sea: No Russian warships present.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 Russian warships present, including 3 Kalibr cruise missile carriers (total salvo potential up to 26 missiles).
Kerch Strait Traffic: Low activity reported.
V. Older Relevant Updates (Apr 4)
Kryvyi Rih Attack (Apr 4): Large-scale ballistic missile strike (claimed Iskander w/ cluster munitions) hit residential area/playground. 20 KIA (9 children), 75 WIA confirmed. Pre-trial war crime investigation initiated by UA PGO. RU narratives attempted to justify/downplay.
Kharkiv Attacks (Apr 3-4): Mass UAV attacks resulted in 5 KIA, 34 WIA.
Ukrainian Training Enhancements (Apr 4): Basic training extended to 1.5 months; mandatory brigade adaptation course added; instructor bonuses approved; additional funding allocated for training infrastructure.
Frontline Claims (Apr 4):
RU claimed advances near Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk), Kamyanka (Kupyansk - crossing Oskil), N. of Druzhba (Toretsk).
RU acknowledged Novomarkove/Orikhovo-Vasylivka (Kramatorsk) remained contested.
UA repelled major RU mechanized assault (Pokrovsk), motorcycle/buggy assaults (Toretsk/Novopavlivsk).
UA claimed destruction of RU Tirada-2 EW & Strela-10 SAM.
International: Norway increased aid package; Denmark announced new package; Poland delivered Starlinks. Discussions reported on potential allied presence/support for Ukraine. EU discussed potential legal status issues for Ukrainian refugees post-ceasefire. Armenia signed law initiating EU accession process.
