Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 7, 2025, 05:30 UTC

(Analysis based on information up to 05:30 UTC)

I. Overall Situation & Key Developments (Past 24 hours - primarily Apr 6)

• Combat Intensity: Remains high. 165 combat clashes reported on April 6 (UGS, Apr 7 08:00 UTC). The most active axes were Pokrovsk (53 clashes), Kursk Border (35 clashes), and Lyman (22 clashes). Significant activity also noted on Toretsk (18 clashes) and Novopavlivsk (9 clashes) axes.
• Russian Strike Activity (Apr 6 - UGS, Apr 7): Extensive strikes continued across Ukraine. UGS reported 1 missile strike (23 missiles claimed), 90 aviation strikes (158 KABs), over 5600 shelling attacks (149 MLRS), and 2112 kamikaze drones targeting Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
  • KAB Targets: Included Krasnopillia, Turia (Sumy); Berezivka, Kozacha Lopan, Zolochiv, Dvorichanske (Kharkiv); Berestok, Pokrovsk, Zorya, Hrodivka, Kotlyne, Novopavlivka, Odradne, Komar, Myrne (Donetsk); Huliaipole, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka (Zaporizhzhia).
  • Southern Front (Apr 6 - SDF): Over 250 RU shelling incidents (>1000 munitions); ~320 kamikaze drone strikes; >80 grenade drops from UAVs. 11 KABs and 18 NARs used against civilian/critical infrastructure.
• Territorial Control Changes & Advance Rates:
  • Ukrainian Advances: No major confirmed advances reported in the provided data window. Successful localized counterattacks noted previously (ISW, Apr 7) contribute to slowing RU gains.
  • Russian Advances/Claims (Apr 6-7):
    • Donetsk Front (WarGonzo, Apr 7): Claimed advance from Burlatske towards Shevchenko, reaching outskirts.
    • Kursk Oblast (WarGonzo/TASS, Apr 7): Claimed advance towards Oleshnia. RU forces reported conducting clearing operations in Huyevo.
    • Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk (Rybаr, Apr 7): Claimed RU 4th OMSBde expanded control N. of Druzhba near Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal.
    • Novopavlivsk (Rybаr, Apr 7): Confirmed liberation of Uspenivka. Heavy fighting ongoing near Udachne, Nadezhdynka, Bohdanivka.
  • Russian Advance Rate Assessment (ISW via Operativnyi ZSU/RBC-Ukraina, Apr 7): Analysis indicates Russian territorial gains decreased monthly from Nov '24 (~627 sq km) to Mar '25 (~203 sq km), partly due to successful Ukrainian counterattacks (esp. Pokrovsk, Toretsk).
• Significant Attack Aftermath:
  • Kryvyi Rih (Apr 4 Strike - Update Apr 7): Death toll remains 20 KIA (9 children), 75 WIA. 33 remain hospitalized (4 children), with 18 in severe condition (2 children) (Vilkul/Lysak via RBC-Ukraina). Days of Mourning declared Apr 7-9.
• Claimed Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia/Occupied Territory (Past 24h):
  • UAV Interceptions (RU MoD/RU Sources Claim, Apr 6-7): 19 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted/destroyed overnight: 13 over Sea of Azov, 4 over Krasnodar Krai, 1 over Bryansk Oblast, 1 over occupied Crimea.
  • Krasnodar Krai (Kuban) Rail Damage: UAV reportedly fell on railway tracks, damaging track bed and contact network (TASS, Apr 7, 04:47 UTC).
  • Hola Prystan (Kherson Obl., Left Bank): RU claim downing UA 'Baba Yaga' type drone attempting to mine civilian territory (Colonelcassad, Apr 7).
• Claimed Russian Personnel/Equipment Losses (Apr 6 - UGS/SDF):
  • UGS Total: Approx. +1350 RU personnel; 13 tanks, 25 AFVs, 31 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 28 UAVs, 15 missiles, 70 vehicles, 1 special equipment.
  • SDF (South): 97 personnel; 4 artillery systems, 8 auto/armored vehicles, 2 motorcycles, 3 boats, 13 Starlink antennas, 1 UAV control antenna, 5 comms antennas, 1 generator, 1 ammo depot, 1 supply depot, 54 shelters/bunkers destroyed.
• Information Operations:
  • RU sources (Shef Hayabusa) highlight discovery of pre-made flags for potential "republics" (Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, etc.) bearing RU emblems, suggesting long-term occupation/annexation planning since 2014.

II. Air & Missile Activity Updates (as of 05:30 UTC Apr 7)

• Current Air Threats:
  • Ballistic Missile Threat (05:05 - 05:30 UTC): Air raid alert declared in Kyiv and multiple central/northern Oblasts due to threat of ballistic missile use (likely from Kursk region, Russia). Alert cancelled in Kyiv at 05:30 UTC (KMVA, UA AF, RBC-Ukraina, Tsaplienko).
• Recent Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Strikes & Impacts (Apr 6-7):
  • Tokarivka Druha (Kharkiv Oblast) (Apr 7 AM): KAB strike resulted in 1 civilian KIA (48yo M), 2 women WIA (acute stress reaction) (Kharkiv OVA / RBC-Ukraina, Apr 7).
  • Southern Front (Apr 6): KABs hit Huliaipole, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka (SDF).
  • Zolochiv Hromada (Kharkiv Obl.) (Apr 6): 4 KABs total; 1 civilian injured (stress).
  • Novopavlivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) (Apr 6 PM): Airstrike injured 3 civilians.
• UAV Activity (Past 24h):
  • Russian UAV Use: 2112 kamikaze drones used across Ukraine (UGS). Southern Front: ~320 kamikaze drone strikes, >80 grenade drops from UAVs. FPV drones targeted Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts (SDF). Artillery/Kamikaze drones used in Nikopol District (Dnipro Obl.) overnight Apr 6-7 (Vilkul).
  • RU Claimed UA UAV Interceptions (Overnight Apr 6-7): 19 UAVs intercepted (13 Azov, 4 Krasnodar, 1 Bryansk, 1 Crimea) (RU MoD).

III. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Updates (Select Axes - Based on UGS 08:00 UTC & other sources)

• Kursk/Sumy Border (Incl. Russian Territory):
  • Intensity: High (35 RU attacks repelled Apr 6 - UGS). RU conducted 212 artillery strikes (13 MLRS) and 16 air strikes (27 KABs).
  • RU Activity/Claims: Attacks repelled by UA forces. RU claims continued push towards Oleshnia and clearing operations in Huyevo (WarGonzo/TASS/Rybаr).
• Kharkiv Axis:
  • 2 clashes reported near Vovchansk and towards Kamianka (UGS).
• Kupyansk Axis:
  • 8 RU attacks repelled near Pishchane, Nova Kruhliakivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove (UGS).
• Lyman Axis:
  • Intensity: High (22 RU attacks Apr 6 - UGS).
  • RU Activity: Attempts to advance near Novoiehorivka, Nove, Kolodiazi, Yampolivka, Nadiia and towards Novomykhailivka, Novoserhiivka, Torske, Ridkodub.
• Siversk Axis:
  • 2 RU attacks repelled near Bilohorivka (UGS).
• Kramatorsk Axis:
  • No active RU offensive actions reported by UGS for Apr 6.
• Toretsk Axis:
  • Intensity: High (18 RU attacks Apr 6 - UGS).
  • RU Activity: Attacks in areas of Dachne, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka. RU sources (Rybаr) claim advances N. of Druzhba near canal.
• Pokrovsk Axis:
  • Intensity: Highest (53 RU attacks repelled Apr 6 - UGS).
  • RU Activity: Attacks repelled near Sukha Balka, Kalynove, Udachne, Sribne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotliarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Bohdanivka, Vodiane Druhe, Kotlyne, Uspenivka.
• Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis:
  • Intensity: Significant (9 RU assaults repelled Apr 6 - UGS).
  • RU Activity: Attacks repelled near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil, Vesele, Burlatske. RU sources (WarGonzo/Rybаr) claim advance towards Shevchenko and confirm control of Uspenivka.
• Huliaipole Axis:
  • 3 RU attacks repelled near Pryvilne and Vilne Pole (UGS/SDF). Huliaipole hit by airstrike (SDF).
• Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
  • 4 RU attacks repelled near Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske (UGS/SDF). KAB strikes on Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka (SDF). RU sources (WarGonzo) claim continued pressure near Kamyanske. RU strikes reported near Novodanylivka (Dva Mayora).
• Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank):
  • 1 RU attack repelled (UGS/SDF). Heavy RU shelling/drone activity continues. 1 civilian KIA, 5 WIA reported in Kherson Oblast from shelling (SDF).

IV. Naval Situation (as of 06:00 UTC Apr 7 - UA Navy)

• Black Sea: No Russian warships present.
• Azov Sea: No Russian warships present.
• Mediterranean Sea: 3 Russian warships present, including 3 Kalibr cruise missile carriers (total salvo potential up to 26 missiles).
• Kerch Strait Traffic (Past 24h): Low activity reported. AIS usage remains inconsistent by RU vessels.